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Forex Week Ahead – Economic Reopening Continues

Forex_week_ahead_economic_reopening-continues_FXPIG

Country

US

Most of the attention in the US will remain around the spread of the coronavirus across the Sunbelt and whether more states are forced to reverse prior reopening actions.  Economic data won’t matter much except for weekly jobless claims.  The US is still seeing over 19 million continuing claims and optimism for the US consumer will start to wane if that worsens much following the most recent virus spikes that occurred over the last couple of weeks.  

US Politics

Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador visits President Trump at the White House.  This will be a rather ceremonial meeting as both leaders will celebrate their new trade deal which took effect on Wednesday.  

Democrats are eagerly awaiting former-VP Biden’s decision on his running mate.  Prior to COVID-19, the Democratic National Convention was originally scheduled in July, meaning we should have found out his decision by June.  Since the convention was delayed till August 17th, he will have more time to evaluate his candidates.  Biden will turn 78 a few weeks after the election, so his VP selection will be critical for many voters. 

Brexit

We learned a long time ago not to get too caught up in the day to day of Brexit talks, with the big compromises always coming later in the day. Anything in the interim can simply be viewed through the prism of a negotiation. 

This week, the talks ended a day early which has come as a worry to some but there are more weeks of intense negotiations ahead where differences can be resolved. With German Chancellor Angela Merkel warning about the prospect of a no deal and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson claiming it would be a very good option, the games are hotting up but I’m sure neither will want it as they battle the devastating effects of the pandemic.

China

House Bill on China sanctions passed. Almost certain to pass the Senate today. HK has raised the possibility of tit-for-tat retaliations by both sides. Potentially trade negative. China threatens the US. UK. Aust over HK today. Geopolitical danger persists.

Markets concentrate on vaccines and recovery stories though. China data continues improving. Equites and currency to remain steady. China Inflation Thursday, no other significant data.

Hong Kong

Hong Kong security law poorly received internationally. 400 arrested already. US rescinds HK special status with more sanctions to come. First protesters arrested under new law. Perversely though, this is the end for protest movement = stock market and economy positive. Hang Seng jumped higher today and will outperform. HKD remains at the strong end of the peg.

India

China tensions ease but Covid-19 cases continue skyrocketing. India is now in top 4 for infections. GDP to fall by 12% annualised, non-bank financial sector contracting, soft Govt fiscal position. Indian stocks to under-perform, INR to remain worst performing sian currency. No significant data.

Australia

Australian Dollar remains under pressure as bull-market correction continues. High potential for more downside. Australia stocks and currency capped by concerns over Victoria Covid-19 and China threats of retaliation over HK and Uighur support.High potential to escalate.

Community infections rising Melbourne with partial lockdowns. Markets negative.

RBA tuesday exp. Unchanged. No market impact.

Japan

Tanken and Retail Sales continue the trend of disappointing data. Covid-19 cases rising in Tokyo. Limiting equity gains. Strong resistance USD/JPY 108.00. Heavy data week ahead. Household Spending Tues, Machinery Orders Thurs expected to disappoint. 

Markets

Oil

Oil has ended the week not too far from where it started, having consolidated around the $40 mark into the end of the second quarter. The reopening measures we’re seeing everywhere is certainly giving oil traders cause for optimism but the setbacks we’re seeing means we’re seeing a few false starts around these levels. I imagine there’ll be plenty of stumbles along the way and it will in fact be oil producers that determine what the next wave will be, with there maybe not being the same appetite to extend the cuts as there was previously.

Gold

The story rarely seems to change for gold. It’s continuing to grind its way higher but every time it gathers any momentum, it’s hacked down and starts again. There are marginal gains each time but the big test weas meant to come around the $1,800 mark. At this rate it’s going to take some time before that comes and it’s not going to be much of a battle.

Source: marketpulse

Most of the attention in the US will remain around the spread of the coronavirus across the Sunbelt and whether more states are forced to reverse prior reopening actions. Economic data won’t matter much except for weekly jobless claims. The US is still seeing ...

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Forex Today: Stocks' strength, dollar downing face NFP

Forex_Today_dollar-facing_NFP_FXPIG

Here is what you need to know on Thursday, July 2:

Stocks are bid and the dollar is down amid new hopes for a coronavirus vaccine and mixed data leading to Thursday's all-important Non-Farm Payrolls. Investors are shrugging off record US infections and re-closing in several states.

The US jobs report for June is due on Thursday due to Friday's Independence Day holiday. An increase of around three million jobs is on the cards for June after around 2.5 million in May, extending the recovery after losing approximately 20 million in April. The unemployment rate is set to drop from 13.3% to 12.3%.

The rapid nature of developments around the current crisis and classification errors result in a wide range of outcomes possible. Wage growth will likely remain elevated as mostly low-earning workers lost their positions. The surveys were taken in the week ending June 12.

Data leading toward the NFP were mixed. ADP's private-sector labor market figures missed expectations while the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index showed a return to growth.

US COVID-19 new daily infections have topped 50,000 for the first time, with several states slapping new restrictions and others – such as New York – delaying the reopening measures. Intensive Care Units surpassed 100% normal capacity and some facilities in Miami are also struggling.

Face masks: President Donald Trump has finally endorsed wearing masks, saying he would wear one. The president is following Republican governors that are pushing for using the basic means of protection. Goldman Sachs estimated that they would boost Gross Domestic Product by 5%.

Coronavirus vaccine: One of the market boosters on Wednesday came from new hopes for immunization. Pfizer and BioNTech said their initial trial in discovering a vaccine was successful, and that it is ramping up efforts. Several countries are upset with America's stockpiling of Remdesivir, a medication that helps COVID-19 patients recover.

The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes reiterated the bank's commitment to buying bonds and supporting the economy but rejected Yield Curve Control or negative interest rates. Equities remained bid after the publication but Treasury yields have advanced.

Gold retreated from its attempts to top $1,800 seen earlier in the week. The precious metal is set to move in response to the Non-Farm Payrolls.

EUR/USD is trading above 1.1250, rising amid the dollar's weakness, marginally better PMIs, and the upbeat coronavirus situation in the old continent. Europe extended its reopening to foreign visitors on Wednesday. Eurozone unemployment rate is due out on Thursday.

GBP/USD bounced from the lows, extending their end-of-quarter bounce and despite Brexit and coronavirus uncertainty.

AUD/USD is trading above 0.69, benefiting from the upbeat market mood and despite a smaller than expected trade balance surplus in Australia. Other commodity currencies are also on the rise. WTI Oil continues holding onto the highs around $40.

Hong Kong: The controversial Chinese security law was applied for the first time on Wednesday, prompting anger around the world. The UK may open the door to allowing immigration of millions of people from the city-state an the US proceeding with sanctions. However, HK's financial market is working as usual with money flowing into the financial hub.

Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin has been edging higher, trading above $9,200.

Source: fxstreet

Stocks are bid and the dollar is down amid new hopes for a coronavirus vaccine and mixed data leading to Thursday's all-important Non-Farm Payrolls. Investors are shrugging off record US infections and re-closing in several states...

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BoE: Activity appears to be coming back

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The Bank of England's (BoE) current stance of monetary policy is appropriate but, on balance, risks are to the downside, BoE policymaker Jonathan Haskel said on Wednesday.

Additional takeaways

"Worryingly, the indicators of rising unemployment are already revealing themselves."

"There remains a great deal of uncertainty as to how many of the currently furloughed workers will be able to return to their jobs."

"Activity appears to be coming back faster than we anticipated."

Market reaction

The GBP/USD pair edged slightly lower following these remarks and was last seen trading at 1.2393, where it was down only 0.05% on the day.

Source: fxstreet

The Bank of England's (BoE) current stance of monetary policy is appropriate but, on balance, risks are to the downside, BoE policymaker Jonathan Haskel said on Wednesday.

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Forex Today: Gold shines, markets look for direction after a successful Q2, ahead of busy start to Q3

Forex_today_Gold_Shines_markets-look-for direction_FXPIG

Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, July 1:

Markets are mixed after closing the second quarter with the strongest rise since 1998. Upbeat Chinese PMIs are outweighing coronavirus concerns. A busy day features the top-tier US hints toward the Non-Farm Payrolls, the Fed minutes, and more.

Gold ended the second quarter with a blast, jumping above $1,780 to the highest levels since late 2012. The precious metal benefited from end-of-quarter flows and is holding onto the gains.

Chinese Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index beat estimates and scored 51.2, reflecting growth. Alongside Tuesday's release of strong US Consumer Confidence as reported by the Conference Board, economic figures from early June outweigh concerns about coronavirus.

Daily US COVID-19 cases topped 40,000 once again, and epidemiologist expert Anthony Fauci warned it could reach 100,000. In testimony, the expert warned the situation is not under control. and going in the wrong direction. States continue reclosing or halting the reopening. Texas reported nearly 7,000 cases, a record, increase fatalities, and pressure on its hospitals.

Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, also testified on Capitol Hill, warning that without controlling the disease, the output will not return to pre-pandemic levels. His colleague John Williams from the New York Fed, said there are indicators that states with outbreaks are seeing slower recovery.

The Fed's meeting minutes from its June decision are due out later on Wednesday.

Battling COVID-19: Efforts for discovering a vaccine continue at full throttle and a potential cure, Gilead's Remdesivir, is also being used at a larger scale in the US and in South Korea.

Face masks: Additional states and Republican politicians have called for using masks, leaving President Donald Trump as one of the sole holdouts. The incumbent continues trailing challenger Joe Biden by nearly 10% according to additional polling data. Investors fear a Democratic clean sweep.

US data: ADP's private-sector employment report is set to show a rebound of nearly three million jobs in June, setting expectations for the Non-Farm Payrolls report. It is essential to note that the payroll firm printed a loss of positions in May while the official figure showed a leap. Investors want to see if the US economy continues its recovery.

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI serves as another hint toward the event, and it is projected to nearly reach 50 – the level separating expansion from contraction.

EUR/USD is back to its range ahead of final Markit's Manufacturing PMIs for June, with hopes for recovery. The old continent is coping with coronavirus and will begin welcoming visitors from a select group of countries. Americans – essential for the tourism sector – are currently disallowed.

GBP/USD is trading above 1.23 after a volatile end to the second quarter. Final growth figures for the first quarter disappointed and Prime Minister Boris Johnson's "Build, build, build" speech fell short on details. Final manufacturing PMI is projected to confirm a return to minimal expansion in the sector. Leicester enters its lockdown amid a significant local outbreak.

AUD/USD is under pressure after Australian Building Approvals plummeted by 16.4% in May, worse than expected. Moreover, the land down under is struggling with a COVID-19 outbreak in the suburbs of Melbourne.

Oil prices completed an impressive comeback in the second quarter, with WTI kicking off the third one around $40.

Major cryptocurrencies remain stable with Bitcoin hovering around $9,100.

Source: fxstreet

Markets are mixed after closing the second quarter with the strongest rise since 1998. Upbeat Chinese PMIs are outweighing coronavirus concerns. A busy day features the top-tier US hints toward the Non-Farm Payrolls, the Fed minutes, and more...

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Gold eases below $1770 level, downside seems limited

Gold-eass-below-1770_Forex_FXPIG
  • Gold witnessed a modest intraday pullback amid a recovery in the US equity futures.
  • A pickup in the US bond yields further exerted pressure on the non-yielding metal.
  • Weaker USD might extend some support to the dollar-denominated commodity.
  • The set-up still supports prospects for a move towards the ambitious $1800 target.

Gold struggled to capitalise on its early uptick back closer to multi-year tops and was last seen trading near daily lows, just below the $1770 region.

The ever-increasing number of new cases globally served as a warning that the fight against COVID-19 is not over and indicated that the road to recovery will be much slower than expected. Fading hopes of a sharp V-shaped global economic recovery continued weighing on investors' sentiment and benefited the safe-haven precious metal.

This coupled with the emergence of some fresh US dollar selling further underpinned the dollar-denominated commodity and contributed to the early uptick on the first day of a new trading week. However, a modest rebound in the US equity futures kept a lid on any strong positive move for the metal, at least for the time being.

This coupled with a goodish intraday pickup in the US Treasury bond yields further collaborated towards capping gains, rather exerted some pressure on the non-yielding yellow metal. Despite a modest pullback, the commodity remains well within last week's broader trading range and the striking distance of multi-year tops set last Wednesday.

The range-bounce price action witnessed over the past one-week or so might still be categorised as consolidative. This, in turn, supports prospects for an extension of the near-term appreciating move towards the ambitious $1800/ounce target.

Source: fxstreet

Gold struggled to capitalise on its early uptick back closer to multi-year tops and was last seen trading near daily lows, just below the $1770 region...

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EUR/USD: Europe fights coronavirus and stuns the dollar

EURUSD_fights-coronavirus_Forex_FXPIG

EUR/USD has been advancing as investors shrug off rising US coronavirus cases. There are several topics such as inflation figures or the negotiation about the EU Fund moving the pair, yet coronavirus is by far the most significant one, FXStreet’s analyst briefs.

Key quotes

“Coronavirus is raging in America – Texas' positive test rate has surged above 14%, Arizona and Georgia have reported a record number of cases, and Florida is not far behind. California, the largest and richest state, will be closing bars and in general – US cases topped 2.5 million.”

“Flare-ups have been recorded in various places in the old continent, but the situation is well under control. Per million, infections remain depressed in Europe's four large countries while they are clearly rising in America.”

“Preliminary inflation figures from Germany for June carry expectations for a bounce after substantial falls beforehand. Spain's Consumer Price Index surprised with an annual fall of 0.3% compared with -0.9% projected. Isabel Schnabel of the ECB said that inflation could dip below 0%, potentially triggering more monetary support. On the fiscal front, leaders are gearing up toward another discussion about the EU Fund, after failing to agree beforehand. Emmanuel Macron suffered a defeat in local elections in his country, somewhat weakening his hand.”

“The European Commission is set to release its new travel guidance on Monday or on Tuesday, probably excluding visitors from the US amid the second wave. That would add to trans-Atlantic tensions, following both sides' inability to agree on several trade issues.”

Source: fxstreet

EUR/USD has been advancing as investors shrug off rising US coronavirus cases. There are several topics such as inflation figures or the negotiation about the EU Fund moving the pair, yet coronavirus is by far the most significant one, FXStreet’s analyst briefs...

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Forex Today: Markets attempt to shrug off grim coronavirus developments

Markets-attempt-toshrug-off_Forex_FXPIG

Here is what you need to know on Monday, June 29:

Markets are attempting to shrug off growing concerns about the spread of coronavirus, especially in the US. Robust Chinese industrial profits and hopes for a vaccine are providing some balance. Several economic figures are due out at the beginning of a busy week.

Global coronavirus cases have reached ten million and deaths passed the grim 500,000 level. Investors are concerned about the surge in the US, including a leap in Texas' positive test rate, hitting 14.3%, record highs in Arizona and Georgia, new restrictions in California, and more. Vice President Mike Pence said that wearing a mask is "just a good idea" in a shift from the White House.

China: a new cluster has been reported close to Beijing after another outbreak in the capital earlier this month. Authorities were quick to lock down the region. On the other hand, the world's second-largest economy is advancing with a vaccine candidate called Ad5-nCoV, encouraging news. Moreover, industrial profits are up 6% YoY in May, the first monthly increase since the crisis.

EUR/USD is edging up ahead of preliminary inflation figures from the eurozone for June. Consumer prices have likely remained depressed. Isabel Schnabel of the European Central Bank said that inflation could dip below 0%.

French President Emmanuel Macron suffered a defeat in local elections, somewhat weakening his position as negotiations about the EU Fund continue.

GBP/USD is attempting to move toward 1.24 ahead of Prime Minister Boris Johnson's speech on the economy this week. The government is set to present a large spending program, and that is supporting sterling.

Brexit talks resume on Monday in the new "intensive phase" after four inconclusive rounds about future EU-UK relations. Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, will speak later in the day.

AUD/USD is still trading below 0.69 amid a resurgence in cases in Victoria state, the most populous and the one that slapped the harshest lockdown. NZD/USD is above 0.64 as Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern poured cold water on hopes of opening borders.

USD/JPY is trading around 107, as Tokyo reported 60 cases, the highest in over a month, and as the transmission could not be determined.

Gold is holding onto the high ground around 1,770.  WTI Oll is retreating from its previous gains and trades around $37.

Cryptocurrencies are relatively stable after edging lower beforehand, with Bitcoin hovering around $9,100.

US Pending Home Sales for May are forecast to show a substantial rebound after falling by 21.8% in 18.9%. In politics, challenger Joe Biden is holding onto a nine-point lead over incumbent President Donald Trump. Markets are currently focused on other topics but may tune in.

Source: fxstreet

Markets are attempting to shrug off growing concerns about the spread of coronavirus, especially in the US. Robust Chinese industrial profits and hopes for a vaccine are providing some balance. Several economic figures are due out at the beginning of a busy week...

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Forex Week Ahead – Jitters Continue into Busy Week

Forex_week-ahead_jitters-continue_FXPIG

US

The Fed releases the Minutes to their last policy decision and may start to show some signs they are worried about inflation.  Policymakers will likely reiterate they are flying blind given the uncertainty about the course of COVID-19 and will likely keep all options on the table for further easing.  Negative rates are probably not on their radar unless we see the prospects of longer and deeper recession grow.

A lot of attention will fall on Texas and the halting of their reopening of its economy.  Texas was one of their first states to reopen and if they end up having to return to stricter restrictions, Wall Street could anticipate a much deeper recession as the V-shaped recovery could become a W-shaped one.  Coronavirus cases are growing by at least 5% in 31 states and this could see lost reopening momentum mean many-out-of-work Americans will struggle to find employment.

US Politics

With just over four months to go to the US Presidential election, everyone is focusing on former-VP Biden’s strong performance in recent battleground state polls.  President Trump is starting to see the deficit widen in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina.  The coronavirus is surging again and many states may be forced to pause or reverse reopening, as new coronavirus and hospitalizations surge.

Democrats are eagerly awaiting former-VP Biden’s decision on his running mate.  Prior to COVID-19, the Democratic National Convention was originally scheduled in July, meaning we should have found out his decision by June.  Since the convention was delayed till August 17th, he will have more time to evaluate his candidates.  Biden will turn 78 a few weeks after the election, so his VP selection will be critical for many voters.

Brexit

This week there has been some signs this week that compromise is possible on some of the more contentious areas of the trade deal but an agreement is still some way off. Thankfully an intense summer of negotiations are planned. Michel Barnier warned that “the real moment of truth” will come in October, which throws the summer deadline out of the window. But let’s face it, that was never going to happen.

Sweden

The Riksbank meets next week but no change is expected, with interest rates currently sitting at 0%. There may be some movement in the next quarter but a lot can change in that time, in the current environment.

China

China is embroiled in multiple diplomatic conflicts at the moment, from US/China trade, Hong kong’s security law to the standoff with India in the Himalayas. Any of these could quickly escalate and have negative repercussions across markets around the world.

Sunday, China releases Industrial Profits YTD for May. Expected-22.0%, a slight improvement. Worse than expected could see Asia markets sharply lower on Monday morning. Official and unofficial Manufacturing and Non-Manf PMI’s released throughout the week. Potential for short-term volatility.

Hong Kong

Hong Kong security law outline poorly received. 28th June meeting in Beijing to decide exact wording. That has potential to cause market volatility next week when released. Increased protests and depending on wording, negative impact on stock market.

India

Economy continues reopening but Covid-19 cases continue spiking, markets negative. Standoff with China continues in the Himalayas, the situation is tense and could escalate rapidly. No significant data.

Australia

Australian Dollar remains under pressure as bull-market correction continues. High potential for more downside. Australia stocks and currency could have a significant vulnerability to sudden downside shifts in sentiment as a proxy for global risk as momentum in global recovery trade appears to be ebbing.

Community infections are increasing again in Victoria, Supermarkets limiting supplies. Markets negative.

Friday Australia Balance of Trade, short-term volatility only.

Japan

North korean tensions have faded, markets positive. Covid-19 risks in Tokyo and Osaka. Heavy data week ahead. Ind. Prod, Tanken, Ret.Sales. Expected to show Japan’s recovery is very slow. Local markets negative.

Market

Oil

The oil demand recovery story was dealt a blow this week after the US registered the biggest-ever jump in coronavirus cases, suggesting many states may have to visit regional lockdowns soon.  States will do their best to avoid a complete reversal with reopening phases, so the economic recovery should not complete stall out.

WTI crude has not been able to do much after capturing the $40 level and seems destined to continue to consolidate between the $35 and $42 level over the next couple weeks.  The rapid demand rebound is not happening, but stimulus efforts, pauses in reopening of businesses, improved treatments for the virus are limiting the downward pressure on crude prices.

Oil prices are slightly higher in early trade mirroring the broader fluctuations with US equities.

Gold

After nearly testing the $1800 an ounce level earlier in the week, gold prices are consolidating as the US dollar firms up.  Gold will continue to see strong support as the coronavirus situation deteriorates globally and as central banks and governments will continue to pump in more stimulus to avoid strains to the financial system and to salvage as many jobs as possible.

Gold prices (in dollar-terms) seem destined for record high territory as the latest spike in COVID-19 cases will see a much slower economic recovery that will keep the stimulus trade going strong.  The global recession might be deeper than expected, but a scramble for cash (extreme risk aversion forces investors to sell their gold positions for cash) will not likely take place for gold given the optimism with eventual rebound and breakthroughs on the treatment and vaccine front.

Source: marketpulse

The Fed releases the Minutes to their last policy decision and may start to show some signs they are worried about inflation. Policymakers will likely reiterate they are flying blind given the uncertainty about the course of COVID-19 and will likely...

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US Dollar Index clings to gains near 97.50 ahead of data

USD_Clings-to-gains_Forex_FXPIG
  • DXY extends the gradual upside to the vicinity of 97.50.
  • Markets’ attention remains on coronavirus and re-opening of the economy.
  • PCE, Personal Income/Spending, final U-Mich next on the docket.

The greenback, when gauged by the US Dollar Index (DXY), is extending the upside momentum to the 97.50 region at the end of the week.

US Dollar Index targets the 97.90 area

The index is up for the third session in a row on Friday, prolonging the bullish bias seen in the second half of the week on the back of renewed demand for the safe haven universe.

In fact, concerns around the advance of the coronavirus and uncertainty surrounding the re-opening of the economy continue to support the investors’ preference for the buck in a context dominated by the risk-aversion. In addition, swelling effervescence around the trade scenario has been also collaborating with the broad risk-off sentiment in past sessions as well as the absence of improvement in the labour market.

Later in the NA session, inflation figures measured by the PCE for the month of May are due seconded by Personal Income/Spending during the same period and the final June gauge of the Consumer Sentiment gauged by the U-Mich index.

What to look for around USD

The re-emergence of the risk aversion in response to COVID-19 developments and trade jitters have lent extra support to the dollar in the last couple of sessions. In the meantime, price action around the buck is expected to track the performance of the broad risk appetite trends, US-China trade developments and the (lack of) progress of the re-opening of the economy. On the constructive stance around the buck, bouts of risk aversion should support the investors’ preference for the greenback as a safe haven along with its status of global reserve currency and store of value.

US Dollar Index relevant levels

At the moment, the index is up 0.05% at 97.43 and a break above 97.74 (weekly high Jun.22) would aim for 97.87 (61.8% Fibo of the 2017-2018 drop) and finally 98.36 (200-day SMA). On the flip side, immediate contention is located at 96.39 (weekly low Jun.23) seconded by 96.03 950% Fibo of the 2017-2018 drop) and finally 95.72 (monthly low Jun.10).

Source: fxstreet

The greenback, when gauged by the US Dollar Index (DXY), is extending the upside momentum to the 97.50 region at the end of the week.US Dollar Index targets the 97.90 area...

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ECB’s Lagarde: Economic recovery will be a complicated

Lagarde_recovery_complicated_Forex_FXPIG

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde, while presenting at an Online Summit organised by the European Business Leaders' Convention, said that we probably have passed the lowest point of the crisis.

Additional quotes:

  • Still cautious because of the second wave of infections.
  • Economic recovery will be a complicated matter.
  • Recovery will be incomplete, maybe transformational.
  • We have to use all available policy levers on monetary and fiscal front.
  • This crisis is worse than the 2008-09 financial crisis.
  • The ECB mandate is the same i.e. focus on price stability.

The comments did little to influence or provide any meaningful impetus to the shared currency. The EUR/USD pair was last seen hovering near the lower end of its daily trading range, just above the 1.1200 mark.

Source: fxstreet

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde, while presenting at an Online Summit organised by the European Business Leaders' Convention, said that we probably have passed the lowest point of the crisis...

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Gold sticks to the positive outlook

Gold-sticks-to-positive-outlook_forex_FXPIG

Strategists at UOB Group’s Quarterly Global Outlook noted the precious metal could advance to the key $1,800 mark per ounce in early 2021.

Key Quotes

“Amidst the uncertain economic times, gold is probably the only key commodity with a distinctive and clear positive outlook. All the key positive drivers remain in place. Global central banks continue their massive monetary policy easing, providing a strong and steady tailwind for gold. Adding to the tailwind, safe haven allocation demand remains strong amidst the on-going economic uncertainty. As such, the question for gold is not one of whether the recent strength is sustainable? This more pertinent question for gold is how strong the rally will be?.”

“Overall, we maintain our medium to longer term gradual positive outlook for gold. We forecast gold at USD 1,700 / oz in 3Q20, USD 1,750 / oz in 4Q20, USD 1,800 / oz in 1Q21 and USD 1, 850 / oz in 2Q21.”  


Source: fxstreet

Strategists at UOB Group’s Quarterly Global Outlook noted the precious metal could advance to the key $1,800 mark per ounce in early 2021...

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EUR/USD Price Analysis: Focus now shifted to 1.1170

EURUSD_Focus-shifted_Forex_FXPIG
  • EUR/USD keeps correcting lower following weekly tops near 1.1350.
  • Further south aligns last week’s lows in the 1.1165/70 band.

EUR/USD is down for the second session in a row in the second half of the week, accelerating the move from earlier tops in the mid-1.1300s.

If the selling impetus accelerates, then the recent low (and interim support) at 1.1168 should emerge on the horizon ahead of the critical 200-day SMA at 1.1030.

As long as the 200-day SMA at 1.1030 holds the downside, further gains in the pair are well on the table.

Source: fxstreet

EUR/USD is down for the second session in a row in the second half of the week, accelerating the move from earlier tops in the mid-1.1300s...

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Forex Today: Dollar dominates, gold shines as coronavirus rages in the US, triple data release eyed

Forex_today_dollar-dominates_FXPIG

Here is what you need to know on Thursday, June 25:

The market mood is sour as COVID-19 statistics in the American south continue rising at an alarming rate. The dollar and gold are shining stocks and other currencies are down. A triple release of US economic figures and coronavirus data are eyed.

US coronavirus: The number of new cases is accelerating in many other states including Florida, Houston is about to reach full capacity in its hospitals, and Arizona does is unable to keep up with the pace of testing. Moreover, states in the greater New York area want those coming from the infected southern states to quarantine, and even deaths from the disease are on the rise after a constant decline.

Gloomy forecasts: Another factor weighing on stocks is a downgrade of forecasts from the International Monetary Fund, which now projects a downfall of 4.9% in 2020. It also laid out an L-shaped scenario that sees no growth in 2021.

The US dollar is the primary beneficiary, gaining ground against all currencies, including the safe-haven yen. Gold prices are consolidating their gains around $1,770 after hitting new 7.5-year highs on Wednesday. S&P 500 futures and Asian stocks are falling alongside oil and other currencies. David Solomon, Goldman Sachs' CEO, hinted that stock valuations are too high.

The US calendar is packed with three top events: The final Gross Domestic Product release will likely confirm the 5% annualized contraction in the first quarter. Durable Goods Orders are projected to rebound in May after tumbling in April.

The final economic statistic to watch is weekly Jobless Claims, forecast to resume their slide. Continuing claims are also of importance, as they are for the same week when the Non-Farm Payrolls surveys are held.

US elections: Additional opinion polls have confirmed Democrat Joe Biden's solid lead against President Donald Trump, which is above 9%. Investors fear a clean sweep for Democrats. Elections news is having trouble competing with COVID-19 headlines.

EUR/USD is stabilizing at the lower ground ahead of the European Central Bank's meeting minutes release for its June meeting when it decided to boost its bond-buying scheme. The level of concern about the economy and explaining that the move was proportional – answering the German constitutional court  – are eyed. Various European countries are experiencing local COVID-19 outbreaks, which currently seem under control.

GBP/USD is trading above 1.24 but off the highs. The UK government is struggling with criticism about his handling of the crisis. Brexit may grab the headlines ahead of the resumption of talks on Monday.

WTI oil is trading around $37, at lower ground. an increase in inventories joined the risk-off mood. Commodity currencies are retreating from the highs.

Cryptocurrencies are on the back foot, with Bitcoin hovering around $9,100.

Source: fxstreet

The market mood is sour as COVID-19 statistics in the American south continue rising at an alarming rate. The dollar and gold are shining stocks and other currencies are down. A triple release of US economic figures and coronavirus data are eyed...

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EUR/USD: Rising bets for a test of 1.1400 and beyond

EURUSD+price-analysis-rising-bets_Forex_FXPIG
  • EUR/USD managed to visit the mid-1.1300s on Tuesday.
  • Further north is located the next hurdle at June’s top at 1.1422.

The recovery in EUR/USD from the 1.1170 region seems to have met an important resistance at so far weekly peaks near 1.1350 on Tuesday.

If the bull run picks up serious pace, then there is the palpable chance of another visit of monthly peaks in the 1.1420/25 band (June 10th).

As long as the 200-day SMA at 1.1030 holds the downside, further gains in the pair are well on the table.

Source: fxstreet

The recovery in EUR/USD from the 1.1170 region seems to have met an important resistance at so far weekly peaks near 1.1350 on Tuesday...

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