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The USD/JPY pair caught some fresh bids on Tuesday and has now moved well within the striking distance of multi-month tops set last week.
Having shown some resilience below the very important 200-day SMA, or the 109.00 handle in the previous session, the pair managed to regain some positive traction during the Asian session on Tuesday and was being supported by a modest pickup in the US Dollar demand.
Focus remains on trade developments
The uptick seemed rather unaffected by the mixed market mood amid political unrest in Hong Kong, which tends to underpin the Japanese Yen's safe-haven demand. Even renewed US-China trade uncertainty and a weaker tone surrounding the US Treasury bond yields did little to hinder the intraday positive momentum.
It is worth recalling that the US President Donald Trump said over the weekend that trade talks were going “very nicely,” but there was no agreement yet on rollback of existing tariffs. Hence, the key focus will be on Trump’s appearance at the New York Economic Club later this Tuesday.
In the meantime, a scheduled speech by the Fed Governor Richard Clarida might influence the USD price dynamics, which coupled with the broader market risk sentiment will also be looked upon to grab some short-term trading opportunities around the major.
The USD/JPY pair caught some fresh bids on Tuesday and has now moved well within the striking distance of multi-month tops set last week...READ MORE
Danske Bank analysts suggest that following the dovish policy signal sent by Bank of England last week, they now expect it to deliver a 25bp cut at its next 'big' meeting in January 2020, taking the Bank Rate to 0.50%.
“This forecast does not depend on the election outcome, although we believe a cut would be more likely in the event of a hung parliament.”
Danske Bank analysts suggest that following the dovish policy signal sent by Bank of England last week, they now expect it to deliver a 25bp cut at its next 'big' ...READ MORE
Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, November 12:
- Tension is mounting toward President Donald Trump's speech at the New York Economic Club later today. Investors will want to hear about progress in US-Sino trade talks after the president rejected reports about rolling back tariffs. The mixed market mood is allowing the greenback to recover against the yen.
- GBP/USD is holding onto Monday's significant gains, triggered by Nigel Farage's announcement. The leader of the Brexit Party has abandoned plans to field candidates in all the UK and will compete only in constituencies where Conservatives failed to win in 2017. His move raises the chances that Prime Minister Boris Johnson wins an absolute majority. However, Tories are pressuring Farage to drop out of tightly-contested seats.
- The UK jobs report is set to show ongoing upbeat wage growth and a low unemployment rate. Monday's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth has shown that Britain escaped a recession but 0.3% quarterly and 1% yearly expansion are dismal.
-Euro-zone: US tariffs on EU cars will likely be delayed according to reports. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has signaled support for a European banking union and further integration. Reforms may be needed to boost growth in the old continent. The ZEW Economic Sentiment Sentiment is set to show an improvement in business confidence, albeit remaining in negative territory.
- NZD/USD has been losing ground after Inflation Expectations came out at 1.8%, raising the chances for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut rates early on Wednesday.
- Gold remains on the back foot, consolidating last week's losses, while oil holding up their ground around $57.
- Cryptocurrencies are attempting a recovery after consolidating previous losses.
Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, November 12:READ MORE
After a brief test of daily highs around 1.1030, EUR/USD has now re-shifted its focus to the lower end of the range in the 1.1020 zone.
EUR/USD focused on trade, data
The pair has attempted a recovery to the 1.1030 region earlier in the session, although the bullish move lacked of follow through.
In the meantime, investors remain focused on any headline regarding the US-China ‘Phase One’ deal, particularly after Friday’s comments by President Trump saying there is still no decision on any roll over of existing tariffs.
The down move in spot has been lately fuelled by the moderate recovery in the buck against the backdrop of raising US yields, always following trade news and the persistent sell off in the safe havens.
After a brief test of daily highs around 1.1030, EUR/USD has now re-shifted its focus to the lower end of the range in the 1.1020 zone...READ MORE
Gold prices edged higher on the first day of a new trading week and recovered a part of the previous session's slide to three-month lows, though lacked any strong bullish conviction.
The US President Donald Trump on Friday said that reports on the rollback of tariffs on Chinese goods was incorrect and poured cold water on the recent trade optimism. It is worth recalling that officials from both sides said late last week that China and the United States have agreed to roll back tariffs on each others' goods in a "phase one" trade deal if it is completed.
A combination of factors extend some support
The not so optimistic remarks, coupled with political unrest in Hong Kong weighed on the global risk sentiment and extended some support to traditional safe-haven assets – including Gold. However, the fact that Trump did not completely rule out a deal with China and left the door open to some tariff rollbacks kept a lid on any strong follow-through positive move.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar was seen consolidating the recent bullish run to multi-week tops, supported by a strong upsurge in the US Treasury bond yields, and did little to provide any meaningful impetus to the dollar-denominated commodity. Investors also seemed reluctant to place any aggressive bids on the back of a bank holiday in the US in observance of Veterans Day.
Moving ahead, this week's other US economic releases, including the latest consumer inflation figures and monthly retail sales data will now be looked upon for a fresh impetus. This along with the Fed Chair Jerome Powell's two-day testimony on Wednesday and Thursday might further collaborate towards determining the commodity's next leg of a directional move.
Gold prices edged higher on the first day of a new trading week and recovered a part of the previous session's slide to three-month lows, though lacked any strong bullish conviction.READ MORE
Here is what you need to know on Monday, November 11:
- Trade: The market mood is somewhat downbeat amid pessimism related to trade talks. President Donald Trump has yet to make a decision on a rollback of tariffs that China has demanded. He said that reports about progress to reach a deal have been incorrect, especially the level of tariffs removal. The Japanese yen and Gold are trying to recover.
- Fed speak: Eric Rosengren, President of the Federal Reserve branch in Boston, will speak in Oslo later in the day. He kicks off a busy week of speeches from Fed officials, culminating in Chair Jerome Powell's testimony.
- UK elections: Weekend opinion polls have been mixed, but the broad picture is of a solid lead for Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservatives. The parties criticized each others' economic promises.
- UK GDP: The UK publishes the first estimate of third-quarter Gross Domestic Product, which is expected to show a return to growth after contracting in the second quarter. Manufacturing Production figures for September are also published.
- Spain: Elections in the fourth-largest economy in the euro-zone have resulted in a hung parliament for the second time this year. Acting Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has fewer options to cobble a government. The far-right Vox party has enjoyed substantial gains.
- Oil prices are off the highs as Saudi Aramco is set to begin its Initial Public Offering (IPO). Iran announced that it discovered a massive oilfield with reserves of 53 billion barrels, yet sanctions may prevent the field's development.
- Cryptocurrencies are extending their losses seen on Friday, with Bitcoin falling further away from $9,000.
- Bank holidays: France, the US, and Canada are off for Remembrance Day.
Here is what you need to know on Monday, November 11:READ MORE
This week has been a little slow, trade deal speculation and baffling UK election gaffs aside. There’s a lot more economic data to come over the next week, with particular focus it seems on the UK and China. Unfortunately, both countries have a lot bigger issues to contend with that investors are far more concerned with than a few data pieces, even if one could – albeit not expected to – put the UK in recession.
Two central bank meetings next week, with a rate cut heavily priced in from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, while Banxico in Mexico is expected to hold. Central banks have become a lot more active in the last 12 months, investors will be keen to see whether this will continue or if, like the Fed, the mid-cycle adjustment has run its course.
The sun is setting on earnings season, with more than 85% of S&P 500 companies having already reported. Only 16 companies reporting next week including Walmart.
Voters in Spain head to the polls this weekend but no party is expected to secure a majority.
Central Banks this week
Monday – No meetings
Tuesday – No meetings
Wednesday – RBNZ (New Zealand – High expectation of 25bps rate cut)
Thursday – Banxico (Mexico – High expectation of 25bps rate cut)
Friday – No meetings
Central Bank Head Speakers
Monday – No speeches
Tuesday – No speeches
Wednesday – Jerome Powell (Federal Reserve)
Thursday – Adrian Orr (RBNZ)
Friday – Stephen Poloz (BoC)
The US dollar has somewhat stabilized following last month’s Fed signal that interest rates will be on hold. The mid-cycle adjustment playbook from the 1990s suggest we could see no changes in policy for a couple of meetings, but that should not suggest that the Fed is anywhere close to tightening.
Investors will closely watch the Wednesday release of inflation data followed by Friday’s retail sales report. Persistent low inflation will motivate the Fed into delivering further rate cuts and possible additional measures in the coming year. Inflation on a month over month basis is expected to rise 0.3% in October, while the reading 12-months through last month will remain steady at 1.7%.
Retail sales is widely expected to bounce back following last month’s surprise drop, which was the first decline in seven months. Consecutive retail sales misses will yield calls that US consumer is weakening. If we see softer inflation data and another miss with retail sales, Fed rate cut bets will rise sharply.
Rising Fed rate cut bets combined with a bottom in the German industrial slowdown could be what is needed to help EUR/USD breakout above its tight range.
The Mexican peso could see extended losses as investors abandon peso exposure as the prospects of deeper cuts from the Banxico will grow as the economy continues to deteriorate. The peso has been relatively stable over the last few weeks after making considerable gains in the dollar in the previous six weeks.
Bitcoin has been relatively stable over the last couple of weeks since it bounced back towards $10,000. It’s coming under pressure at the end of the week but nothing outside the kind of moves we’ve been witnessing. It goes without saying that bitcoin is always prone to huge moves at any moment, regardless of how calm it’s looking.
What’s good for trade is good for oil prices. Brent rallied on Thursday as trade optimism spread but like it’s stock market buddy, it is paring gains already today on the back of those conflicting reports. The rally on Thursday wasn’t particularly strong, which may reflect waning momentum after a strong rebound from the early October lows.
Brent prices are up more than 10% from those lows and while sentiment has improved, the expectation is still that the global economy is going to slow next year, even if the US avoids recession.
Gold has finally broken out! The trade headlines over the last 24 hours triggered strong demand the dollar and risk, neither of which bode well for the yellow metal. It was already trading around the lower end of the range and this provided the catalyst to break the month-long consolidation and test the $1,460 lows of early last month.
We’ve already seen some profit taking but this will certainly give gold bears encouragement, while bulls may have had the wind knocked out of them just as optimism was starting to build. Support below here may be found around $1,440.
It’s been a remarkable start to the UK election campaign, one in which no party is yet to look anything other than inadequate. I’d be amazed but having watched the political drama play out over the last few years, it’s actually rather in-keeping with the nonsense we’ve become accustomed to. Even still, we are already seeing some quite incredible things unfold.
I don’t expect the next five weeks will be any different and, if anything, it will likely become more bitter and fierce. The BoE yesterday has already been forgotten, with future decisions likely to be dictated by events over the next few months. Even the new Governor can’t be chosen until we have a new government.
Sterling has consolidated since the extension was secured. While that can change in the coming weeks, traders are currently content in the belief that the Conservatives will secure the majority they need.
Voters in Spain head to the polls this weekend but no party is expected to secure a majority. The Socialists have a lead in the polls but are likely to be forced to try again to engage in negotiations with parties to avoid another election next year. Minimal, if any, market impact is expected with hung parliament the likely outcome.
We are well under 90 days until the Iowa Democratic caucuses which takes place on February 3rd 2020. Right now, it appears to be a four-person race between Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, and Pete Buttigieg.
Fears of a progressive candidate such as Warren or Sanders being the Democratic nominee are growing, but even if that happens, radical changes to healthcare and regulation seem unlikely as the Republicans will still hold the Senate. Wall Street will eventually to start to price in the risk of Democratic candidate, with Biden likely being the most market friendly choice.
The base case remains that US President Trump will be re-elected, however impeachment drama and a never-ending trade war could finally start to weigh on some of the voters in the key battleground states.
Bank of Japan unchanged. In watch and wait mode. Trade sensitive to negative US-China headlines.
Student dies today from fall in last weekend’s protests. Hong Kong elections 24th Nov, possibly postponed. China direct intervention remote. Protests may escalate this weekend after the student’s death.
Phase 1 trade deal looks locked and loaded with staged mutual reduction in tariffs. White House changes mind over weekend leads to sharp risk selloff on Monday morning.
Reserve Bank of Australia quarterly implies more easing needed with recovery slow and wage growth not on the horizon. Housing bubble. Increased chances of QE soon could combine to lower AUD.
This week has been a little slow, trade deal speculation and baffling UK election gaffs aside. There’s a lot more economic data to come over the next week, with particular focus it seems on the ...READ MORE
Analyst at Westpac, points out that the RBA embraced the opportunity of the FOMC’s guidance of a sustained pause in rate-cutting to not only hold its cash rate steady at 0.75% but to make clear that it expects to hold again in December.
“It was able to send such a message without much fear of a surge in the Aussie dollar, given that markets are pricing only a 10-15% chance of another Fed cut this year.”
“While AUD/USD did rise a little after the RBA statement, it is little changed over the week and in trade-weighted terms, remains as Governor Lowe put it, “is at the lower end of its range over recent times.” The benefits are evident in Australia’s trade position, with today’s Sep data bringing the 2019 monthly average surplus to A$6bn.”
“But the RBA is not complacent about AUD remaining weak. In retaining the pledge that it is “is prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed,” the RBA Board surely had the currency uppermost in mind. This pledge also raises questions about the durability of the unwinding of rate cut pricing – see chart across. Westpac continues to expect a cash rate cut to 0.5% in Feb 2020, at which point unconventional policy options should be a hot topic again.”
“Indeed even the week ahead could produce some wobbles for those who betting that the RBA is on hold for an extended period, with Oct unemployment and Q3 wages data due. This will be a test for AUD/USD which fell short of 0.6950 this week as the US dollar steadied with help from strong US data.”
Analyst at Westpac, points out that the RBA embraced the opportunity of the FOMC’s guidance of a sustained pause in rate-cutting to not only hold its cash rate steady at 0.75% but to make clear that it expects to hold again in December...READ MORE
The latest European Central Bank (ECB) Economic Bulletin is surprisingly upbeat.
The ECB have stated that incoming data and survey results point to moderate but positive growth in the second half of 2019.
The central bank also said that employment growth remains positive but moderate,
This comes as welcome news to the Eurozone as some analysts have been suggesting a slowdown has been hurting the area. It would be interesting to see the view of new ECB President Lagarde who has inherited the post after Mario Draghi kickstarted quantitative easing (QE) again at his last meeting as President.
Today the EUR/USD pair has pushed higher after news from China's Commerce Ministry that US and China have agreed to cancel existing tariffs in different phases.
EURUSD now trades 0.13% higher at 1.1081 still unable to regain the 1.11 handle as of yet.
The latest European Central Bank (ECB) Economic Bulletin is surprisingly upbeat. The ECB have stated that incoming data and survey results point to moderate but positive growth in the second half of 2019...READ MORE
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They say "Making money is easy", KEEPING it is the hard part. "Fighting" FOREX is a really hard "game", and it is really worth to have a "SNIPER" on your side...READ MORE
Gold edged higher on Wednesday and recovered a part of the overnight sharp fall to three-week lows, albeit seemed struggling to capitalize on the attempted bounce.
A combination of negative forces exerted some heavy downward pressure on Tuesday and led to the precious metal's biggest single-day drop since September 25. The US Dollar remained well supported by growing optimism over a possible US-China trade deal later this month and was seen as one of the key factors weighing on dollar-denominated commodities – including Gold.
Upside seems limited
The already stronger USD got an additional boost following the release of better-than-expected US ISM Non-manufacturing PMI. This coupled with a strong upsurge in the US Treasury bond yields further aggravated the intraday bearish pressure surrounding the non-yielding yellow metal, taking along some short-term trading stops near the key $1500 psychological mark.
As investors digested the latest US-China trade news, the prevalent cautious mood around equity markets extended some support to the precious metal's perceived safe-haven status and helped gain some positive traction on Wednesday. However, the uptick lacked any strong bullish conviction and runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly amid absent relevant market moving economic releases
Gold edged higher on Wednesday and recovered a part of the overnight sharp fall to three-week lows, albeit seemed struggling to capitalize on the attempted bounce...READ MORE
In opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, EUR/USD could now slip back and test the 1.10 region in the next weeks.
24-hour view: “While we held the view yesterday “the risk is on the downside”, the anticipated “solid support at 1.1090” did not materialize as EUR plummeted to a low of 1.1062 during NY hours. The rapid drop is running ahead of itself and while EUR could dip to 1.1050, a sustained decline below this level is unlikely (next support at 1.1020). Resistance is at 1.1100 followed by the stronger level near 1.1125. Yesterday’s peak at 1.1140 is not expected to come into the picture”.
Next 1-3 weeks: “While we cautioned yesterday (05 Nov, spot at 1.1125) that the “odds for further EUR strength have diminished”, the sharp drop in EUR that easily cracked the 1.1090 ‘strong support’ level and the subsequent weak daily closing at 1.1074 came as a surprise (the -0.47% decline is the largest 1-day drop in 6 weeks). The positive phase in EUR that started about one month ago has ended and the current weakness is viewed as a corrective pullback (and not a major reversal). For the next couple of weeks, EUR is likely to trade with a downside bias towards 1.1000. At this stage, a sustained decline below this level is not expected. Resistance is at 1.1125 but only a 1.1140 (‘strong resistance’ level) would indicate our view for a pull-back is incorrect”.
In opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, EUR/USD could now slip back and test the 1.10 region in the next weeks.READ MORE
Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, November 6:
- Trade: The US and China are nearing an agreement on Phase One of the trade deal. However, talks can still fall apart as China is reportedly insisting that the US removes older tariffs as well as the most recent ones imposed in September.
- US economy: The US Dollar has been consolidating its gains after the ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index beat expectations with 54.7 points. The services sector continues leading the economy forward while manufacturing remains a drag.
- Interest rates: Neel Kahskari, President of the Minnesota branch of the Federal Reserve, has said that interest rates are now accommodative. Charles Evans, his colleague from Chicago and John Williams from the New York Fed are set to speak today. The Fed is set to leave interest rates unchanged.
- New Zealand: NZD/USD has been losing some ground after the Unemployment Rate in the South Pacific nation disappointed with an increase to 4.2%. The odds of another rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has risen.
- UK: Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservatives have been on the back foot after a gaffe by a senior minister and as the government refused to release a report about Russian meddling in the elections. Recent opinion polls have shown a steady lead for the Tories, but a majority is far from certain.
- Euro-zone: Markit's Services PMIs for October and Retail sales for September will provide further information about the euro-zone economies. Olaf Scholz, Germany's finance minister, has called for greater financial cooperation in the old continent around banking and taxes.
- Oil prices have been holding onto gains with WTI trading around $57. Oil Inventories are due out later today.
- Cryptocurrencies have been moving higher, with Ethereum leading the way, advancing above $190
Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, November 6:READ MORE
OPEC forecasts global oil demand to rise to 103.9 million bpd (mbpd) by 2023 and raised its mid-term outlook for non-OPEC oil supply growth for 2019.
Oil output to decline to 32.9 mbpd in 2024 from 35 mbpd in 2019 due to non-OPEC growth.
Oil demand in OECD countries is projected to shift after 2020 from growth to a declining trend.
OPEC says oil demand to rise by 12 mbpd to 110.6 mbpd by 2040, lower than last years forecast of 111.7 mbpd."
OPEC forecasts global oil demand to rise to 103.9 million bpd (mbpd) by 2023 and raised its mid-term outlook for non-OPEC oil supply growth for 2019...READ MORE
FX Strategists at UOB Group noted further upside in EUR/USD appears to be losing some traction.
24-hour view: “Our expectation for EUR “to edge above 1.1180” was incorrect as it slumped after touching 1.1175. While the rapid decline appears to be running ahead of itself, there is no sign of stabilization just yet and the risk is still on the downside. That said, 1.1090 is a solid support and this level is unlikely to be challenged for today (there is a minor support at 1.1110). On the upside, only a move above 1.1155 (minor resistance is at 1.1140) would indicate that the current weakness has stabilized”.
Next 1-3 weeks: “The October’s peak at 1.1179 continues to thwart the advance in EUR as it retreated after failing to break this strong resistance for the third straight day (high of 1.1175 yesterday). The price action was not exactly surprising as we highlighted last Thursday (31 Oct, spot at 1.1155) that EUR has to ‘punch’ through 1.1179 convincingly or the up-move may falter. While our ‘key support’ at 1.1090 is still intact, the price action over the past few days suggests EUR may not be ready to move above 1.1179 just yet. In other words, the odds for further EUR strength have diminished. In order to rejuvenate the current flagging momentum, EUR has to move and stay above 1.1155 within these 1 to 2 days or a break of 1.1090 would indicate that the positive phase in EUR that started about one month ago has run its course”.
FX Strategists at UOB Group noted further upside in EUR/USD appears to be losing some traction...READ MORE