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EUR/USD should find support

FOREX_EURUSD-should-find-support2009_FXPIG

Key Quotes

EUR/USD appears reluctant to tackle resistance offered by the 1.1745/50 area and the 1.1790 recent high. This has rejected the market many times and remains formidable resistance. A close above here is needed to trigger a move to the 1.1853 mid-June high and the 1.1907 55 week ma. We continue to view the recent low at 1.1301 as a significant turn for the market. Dips lower will find initial support at the 1.1624 near term support line”.

“The cross will need to drop sub 1.1508 to alleviate immediate upside pressure”.

Source: fxstreet.com

EUR/USD appears reluctant to tackle resistance offered by the 1.1745/50 area and the 1.1790 recent high. This has rejected the market many times and remains formidable resistance.

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EUR/JPY Technical Analysis

FOREX_EURJPY-technical1909_FXPIG
  • EUR/JPY keeps trading on a positive note on Wednesday, extending the rally beyond 131.00 the figure and at the same time re-taking the key 200-day SMA.
  • The continuation of the bull run should allow for a test of July’s top just beyond the 132.00 milestone ahead of April’s high in the mid-133.00s.
  • In addition, the cross remains constructive as long as the short-term support line, today at 129.03, holds.

Daily high: 131.70

Daily low: 130.91

Support Levels

S1: 130.42

S2: 129.75

S3: 129.21

Resistance Levels

R1: 131.64

R2: 132.18

R3: 132.85

Source: fxstreet.com

EUR/JPY keeps trading on a positive note on Wednesday, extending the rally beyond 131.00 the figure and at the same time re-taking the key 200-day SMA. The continuation of the bull run should allow for a test of July’s top just beyond the 132.00 milestone ahead of April’s high in the mid-133.00s. In addition, the cross remains constructive as long as the short-term support line, today at 129.03, holds. ‍

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AUD/USD still neutral

FOREX_AUDUSD-still-neutral1909_FXPIG

FX Strategists at UOB Group remain neutral on the pair, which it has likely moved into a consolidation phase.

Key Quotes

24-hour view: “Instead of trading lower (as expected yesterday), AUD rebounded strongly from a low of 0.7144. The surprisingly robust recovery appears to have room to move above the 0.7240 resistance but a break above the next resistance at 0.7265 seems unlikely. On the downside, 0.7165 is expected to be strong enough to hold any intraday pull-back (minor support is at 0.7195). The 0.7144 low is not expected to come into the picture”.

Next 1-3 weeks: “While AUD ended the day on a surprisingly solid note (NY close of 0.7219, +0.56%), there is no change to our view. The neutral phase that started last Thursday (13 Sep, spot at 0.7170) is still intact and we continue to view the current movement as part of a consolidation phase. That said, the improved underlying tone suggests that AUD could trade at higher 0.7140/0.7280 range instead of 0.7100/0.7240 that we expected previously”.

Source: fxstreet.com

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US: Inflationary impact

FOREX_Infla-Impact-Of-Chinese_FXPIG

Analysts at TD Securities suggests that as the third $200bn batch of Section 301 tariffs on China has been announced by the Trump Administration, but they expect US inflationary impacts to be modest, along with negative growth impacts.

Key Quotes

“The finalized tariff list still targets a minority share of consumer goods and an even smaller share of the CPI basket. Import market share of the targeted goods is relatively small, and pass-through from capital and intermediate goods prices, which will bear the brunt of the tariff impact, is also low for the relevant categories.”

“We estimate that, at most, the tariffs could add 0.2-0.3pp on US core CPI within 6-12 months. Our base case, however, is that they are likely to only contribute around 0.1pp. The impact on core PCE inflation should be marginally smaller.”

“Any inflationary impacts will have important offsets. For one, disinflationary forces remain in play for core goods prices, which have deflated outright for the past several years.”

“Further, lower global commodity prices and USD appreciation, as a result of trade wars, has deflationary consequences. All told, these factors could easily wipe out positive price impacts.”

“In our view, Fed officials are likely to look past the tariff impacts upon inflation, which will raise annual inflation rates for a 12-month period, as a temporary cost shock — provided inflation expectations remain reasonably well anchored. Indeed, the risk from a sizable increase in tariffs is that they ultimately could depress sentiment, damage supply chains, and result in cuts to capex and hiring. If large enough, these effects might result in a dovish tilt to Fed policy.”

Source : www.fxstreet.com

Analysts at TD Securities suggests that as the third $200bn batch of Section 301 tariffs on China has been announced by the Trump Administration, but they expect US inflationary impacts to be modest, along with negative growth impacts. Key Quotes “The finalized tariff list still targets a minority share of consumer goods and an even smaller share of the CPI basket. Import market share of the targeted goods is relatively small, and pass-through from capital and intermediate goods prices, which will bear the brunt of the tariff impact, is also low for the relevant categories.”

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GBP futures: up move seen

FOREX_GBP-UP-MOVE-SEEN_FXPIG

Advanced figures for GBP futures markets showed investors added just 770 contracts on Monday vs. Friday’s final 314,579 contracts, according to CME Group. On the other hand, volume dropped by almost 66.6K contracts.

GBP/USD could test the 100-day SMA at 1.3170

Yesterday’s up move in Cable was accompanied by a small up tick in open interest, which could leave a potential test of the 1.3170 area unchanged. However, the considerable drop in volume and the proximity of the overbought territory could allow for some weakness in the near term.

Source : www.fxstreet.com

Advanced figures for GBP futures markets showed investors added just 770 contracts on Monday vs. Friday’s final 314,579 contracts, according to CME Group. On the other hand, volume dropped by almost 66.6K contracts. GBP/USD could test the 100-day SMA at 1.3170

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USD/JPY positive view

FOREX_USD-JPY-VIEW_FXPIG

The pair should keep the constructive outlook while above the 110.76, suggested Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank.

Key Quotes

“USD/JPY is probing the 112.00/15 resistance and for now, while underpinned by the uptrend today at 110.76, our bias is positive. The market has recently tested and recovered from support offered by the 55 week moving average at 110.38 and the 200 day moving average at 109.76. We therefore maintain an upside bias while above here and anticipate an eventual retest of the August high at 112.15 above which sit the July peak and 200 week moving average at 113.18/27”.

“If the 109.77 level were to give way (recent low), the June 8 low at 109.20 would be in focus. Failure there would imply a slide back to the 108.12 May 29 low and the mid-February high at 107.91”.

The pair should keep the constructive outlook while above the 110.76, suggested Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank.Key Quotes “USD/JPY is probing the 112.00/15 resistance and for now, while underpinned by the uptrend today at 110.76, our bias is positive. The market has recently tested and recovered from support offered by the 55 week moving average at 110.38 and the 200 day moving average at 109.76.

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GBP/USD Technical Analysis

FOREX_GBP-USD_TECH-ANALYSIS_FXPIG

The Sterling is looking for higher gains as Brexit hopes push traders into the bullish camp.

With trade wars beginning to ramp-up, buying pressure is going to face severe headwinds.

The economic calendar remains thin until Wednesday's inflation reading for the UK, leaving buyers to look up towards the 200-day EMA slung high above current prices.

Source: www.fxstreet.com

The Sterling is looking for higher gains as Brexit hopes push traders into the bullish camp. With trade wars beginning to ramp-up, buying pressure is going to face severe headwinds. The economic calendar remains thin until Wednesday's inflation reading for the UK, leaving buyers to look up towards the 200-day EMA slung high above current prices. ‍

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EUR/JPY Technical Analysis

FOREX_TECH_EUR-JPY_FXPIG

EUR/JPY is extending the bounce off Friday’s lows and is now resuming the upside with immediate target the 200-day SMA, today at 131.11.

A surpass of the key 200-day SMA should pave the way for a continuation of the bull run to July’s tops in levels just above 132.00 the figure.

On the downside, the 129.00/50 band should offer decent contention. This area is coincident with late July lows and the 21-day/55-day/10-day SMA.

Source : www.fxstreet.com

EUR/JPY is extending the bounce off Friday’s lows and is now resuming the upside with immediate target the 200-day SMA, today at 131.11. A surpass of the key 200-day SMA should pave the way for a continuation of the bull run to July’s tops in levels just above 132.00 the figure. On the downside, the 129.00/50 band should offer decent contention. This area is coincident with late July lows and the 21-day/55-day/10-day SMA. ‍

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Riksbank Minutes amongst

FOREX_EUR-YEN_FXPIG

Analysts at Danske Bank suggest that in Sweden, the highlight of the day will be the minutes from the 6 September Riksbank meeting, which will be scrutinised for clues about the next policy step.

Key Quotes

“We will look for an indication of a first policy hike in either December or February.”

“Trump may announce either today or tomorrow that he is implementing tariffs on an additional USD200bn worth of imported goods from China. According to CNN, the tariff rate is going to be 10% and not 25% as feared previously.”

“In the euro area, the final HICP figures from August are due. We do not expect any revision to the preliminary release, which saw headline inflation falling back to 2.05% and core inflation disappointing on the downside at 0.96%.”

Source :www.fxstreet.com

Analysts at Danske Bank suggest that in Sweden, the highlight of the day will be the minutes from the 6 September Riksbank meeting, which will be scrutinised for clues about the next policy step. Key Quotes “We will look for an indication of a first policy hike in either December or February.”

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GBP/USD Bears waiting

FOREX_GBPUSD-bears-waiting_FXPIG
  • The Sterling-Dollar pairing is looking for more bullish momentum despite the US Dollar's broad-market bull moves recently.
  • The GBP/USD remains trapped under July's peaks and the 200-day EMA, but bulls have managed to push the pair into a firm bullish correction, breaking above the 50-day EMA.
  • The 21, 50, and 200 day EMAs remain locked in a bearish setup, and short-sellers will likely be waiting just above.


Spot rate 1.3080

Relative change 0.10%

High1.3084

Low1.3066  

Trend Bullish  

Support 11.3013 (200-hour EMA)

Support 21.2922 (61.8% Fibo retracement level)

Support 31.2785 (two-week low)  

Resistance 11.3143 (previous week high)

Resistance 21.3213 (August 26th swing high)

Resistance 31.3296 (200-day EMA)

Source: fxstreet.com

The Sterling-Dollar pairing is looking for more bullish momentum despite the US Dollar's broad-market bull moves recently.

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FOREX Week Ahead

FXPIG_USD_Trade-tention

The dollar bounced back on Friday, after a couple of economic indicator misses this week, the greenback is higher against all major pairs. Major pairs and commodities are lower against the greenback ahead of the weekend. The American currency did not manage to overturn the losses posted during the rest of the week. On a weekly basis the USD is lower against all majors except the Japanese Yen.

A slowdown in the pace of inflation, miss in retail sales expectations and a softer tone on trade from the Trump administration were the three major factors for the softness of the currency.

Rate differentials also helping the USD. This week was mostly a non event for the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB). Although the Sept rate hike by the Fed is priced in, it also shows its the only economy with some momentum to even lift rates. Next up in the economic calendar are the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the Swiss National Bank that are not expected to modify their monetary policies.

Euro Scored a Win on a Weekly Basis but Falls as Trade Tensions Rise

The escalation of trade tensions was a positive for the US dollar as investors sought a safe haven during times of uncertainty. As potential olive branches are put forward there is optimism that Canada will join the US-Mexico agreement and talks with China could lead to closing the gap between the two points of view on trade. US President Trump tweeted on Friday that the a meeting with China is no guarantee of anything and reports in the media suggest the $200 billion US tariffs are still on the table.

A September rate hike is still fully priced in, but the inflation and retail sales miss did slim down the probabilities of a follow up rate hike in December.

The American economic calendar is short on blockbuster releases with Washington development to guide markets as trade tensions have eased, but are far from resolved.

The euro rose almost 1 percent this week with risk appetite returning to markets and strong wage growth in Europe. The European Central Bank (ECB) did as expected and held rates signalling that it will end its QE program at the end of the year and continued to maintain interest rates low through the 2019 summer.

Investors were not given any new information and instead bought the currency on improved international trade environment. The olive branches are just now entering the picture, and ECB economists could not have predicted the timing as they also announced a downgrade of their economic projections, citing trade worries.

Upcoming European inflation along with service and manufacturing PMIs will bookend the economic calendar in the EU. The gap between interest rates will continue to grow as the U.S. Federal Reserve pushes on its tightening policies as growth fails to spark momentum in Europe.

Fed rate hikes are priced in into the USD, but signs of European slowdown or the US economy hitting a higher gear could be a gift for dollar bulls.

Canadian Dollar Awaits News on NAFTA as US Gets Tough on China

The Canadian dollar fell on Friday. After the Trump administration softened its stance on international trade, in particular by reopening trade talks with China, NAFTA optimism boosted the loonie. Traders did not feel confident in carrying over short dollar positions into the weekend and the greenback saw a recovery on Friday.

The loonie advanced 1 percent during the week and next week’s inflation and retail sales data on Friday are crucial for the fate of a Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate hike. NAFTA headlines will roll in as the team of negotiations get back to work with the aim to add Canada to to US-Mexico agreement.

Expectations are mixed on NAFTA, as Canada seems ready to make concessions on dairy but the US and Mexico continue to press for a trilateral deal while also adding they are ready to forge ahead if its only a bilateral one.

China Tariffs Cap Rise of Oil as Growth Concerns Hit Commodities

Oil fell 0.35 percent on Friday compounding on losses seen on Thursday, but will head into the weekend with a 1.09 percent gain. Supply disruptions have lifted prices after the 2014, be it the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and major producers agreement to limit their output to weather and geopolitical disputes.

Hurricane Florence in the US was downgraded and with it the negative short term effect on potential disruptions. IEA reported today that OPEC is starting to ramp up production by 420,000 daily barrels more than making up for the impact that the sanctions on Iranian exports will have on supply.

Global demand for crude has not shown signs of recovery and if producers start pumping there is a risk that oversupply could once again bring instability to oil prices.

Geopolitical factors like the US-China trade tensions will continue to put downward pressure on crude prices as higher levels of protectionist measures tend to slow down global growth.

Yellow Metal Falls as Risk Aversion and Fed Rate Hikes Advance

Gold fell 0.46 on Friday after a bounce in the US dollar at the end of the week. Risk aversion has been the main dollar of US strength as trade war concerns could have a deep impact in global growth. Commodities have recovered this week after the Trump administration has softened its tough stance with China with bilateral talks to restart in a couple of weeks.

Friday’s move is also explained by investors limiting their exposures as the weekend approaches, given that geopolitical risk could rise at any moment. The move gave some breathing room to the greenback as it is on its way to erase the majority of its losses against the yellow metal.

Source: marketpulse.com

The dollar bounced back on Friday, after a couple of economic indicator misses this week, the greenback is higher against all major pairs. Major pairs and commodities are lower against the greenback ahead of the weekend. The American currency did not....

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EUR/JPY Technical Analysis

FOREX_EURJPY-technical1409_FXPIG
  • The cross is prolonging the march higher today, adding to Thursday’s strong advance to the boundaries of 131.00 the figure on the back of the persistent improved tone in the risk-associated complex.
  • EUR/JPY is already flirting with the 200-day SMA near 131.15 and opens the door for the continuation of the up move to. Initially, July’s tops just beyond the 132.00 milestone.
  • If the upside impulse gathers extra steam, April’s top at 133.52 should emerge on the horizon.

Daily high: 131.13

Daily low: 130.70

Support Levels

S1: 129.74

S2: 128.63

S3: 128.01

Resistance Levels

R1: 131.48

R2: 132.10

R3: 133.21

Source: fxstreet.com

The cross is prolonging the march higher today, adding to Thursday’s strong advance to the boundaries of 131.00 the figure on the back of the persistent improved tone in the risk-associated complex. EUR/JPY is already flirting with the 200-day SMA near 131.15 and opens the door for the continuation of the up move to. Initially, July’s tops just beyond the 132.00 milestone.

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EUR futures: rising odds

FOREX_EUR-USD-RISINGODDS_FXPIG

According to CME Group’s advanced figures for EUR futures markets, investors added around 16.8K contracts to their open interest position on Thursday vs. Wednesday’s final 549,540 contracts. In the same line, volume rose to its second largest level so far this year above 751K contracts, up by more than 231K from the previous day and recording the third build in a row.

EUR/USD now targets 1.1745/50 ahead of 1.1790

The rally in EUR/USD is clinching its fifth session in a row today, retaking the 1.1700 handle and above amidst rising volume and open interest. This clear bullish sign paves the way for a potential visit to the 1.1745/50 band in the near term.

Source : www.fxstreet.com

According to CME Group’s advanced figures for EUR futures markets, investors added around 16.8K contracts to their open interest position on Thursday vs. Wednesday’s final 549,540 contracts. In the same line, volume rose to its second largest level so far this year above 751K contracts, up by more than 231K from the previous day and recording the third build in a row.

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GBP/USD climbs

FOREX_GBPUSD-climbs-to-fresh1409_FXPIG

•  Thursday’s softer US CPI figures continue to weigh on the USD.
•  Brexit optimism remains supportive of the positive momentum.
•  Carney’s speech/US monthly retail sales eyed for fresh impetus.

The GBP/USD pair finally broke out of its Asian session consolidation phase and refreshed six-week tops in the last hour.

The pair built on its bullish trajectory further beyond the 1.3100 handle, with a combination of supporting factors confirming that the near-term positive momentum remains well intact.

The US Dollar continues to be weighed down by Thursday’s weaker than expected US consumer inflation figures, which coupled with Brexit optimism helped the pair to continue gaining positive traction for the fifth consecutive session.

Meanwhile, the latest leg of a sudden spike over the past hour or so could also be attributed to some fresh technical buying and hence, a follow-through up-move, towards testing 100-day SMA, now looks a distinct possibility.

Next in focus would be the BoE Governor Mark Carney's scheduled speech, which along with the release of US monthly retail sales data might produce some meaningful trading opportunities on the last trading day of the week.

Technical levels to watch

A subsequent up-move beyond mid-1.3100s is likely to get extended towards the 1.3180 region (100-day SMA) ahead of the 1.3200 round figure mark. On the flip side, the 1.3100 handle now becomes an immediate strong support to defend and is followed by support near the 1.3060-50 region.

Source: fxstreet.com

The GBP/USD pair finally broke out of its Asian session consolidation phase and refreshed six-week tops in the last hour.The pair built on its bullish trajectory further beyond the 1.3100 handle, with a combination of supporting factors confirming that the near-term positive momentum remains well intact.The US Dollar continues to be weighed down by Thursday’s weaker than expected US consumer inflation figures, which coupled with Brexit optimism helped the pair to continue gaining positive traction for the fifth consecutive session.

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USD/JPY aims for extra gains

FOREX_USDJPY-aims-for-extra-gains_FXPIG

FX Strategists at UOB Group expects the pair’s upside momentum to remain supported while above 111.35.

Key Quotes

24-hour view: “The sudden acceleration higher in USD that hit an overnight high of 111.99 was clearly not expected. Upward momentum has improved by considerably and from here, a move above the August’s peak of 112.14 would not surprise at all. However, the next resistance at 112.60 could be just out of reach for today. On the downside, we expect 111.35 to be strong enough to hold any intraday pull-back (minor support is at 111.60)”.

Next 1-3 weeks: “While we indicated on Wednesday (12 Sep, spot at 111.60) that the “the probability for a test of last month’s 112.15 peak has increased”, the solid gain made by USD yesterday was not exactly expected (the +0.60% gain is the largest 1-day rise in 3 weeks). After the solid advance, a move above 112.15 would not be surprising but at this stage, it is unclear if any up-move can be sustained. However, as long as USD can hold above 111.35 within the next couple of days (‘key support’ previously at 110.85), the prospect for further USD strength to 112.60 would continue to improve”.

Source: fxstreet.com

24-hour view: “The sudden acceleration higher in USD that hit an overnight high of 111.99 was clearly not expected. Upward momentum has improved by considerably and from here, a move above the August’s peak of 112.14 would not surprise at all. However, the next resistance at 112.60 could be just out of reach for today. On the downside, we expect 111.35 to be strong enough to hold any intraday pull-back (minor support is at 111.60)”.

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