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Forex Trading Wisdom: Move the market

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...You can't move the market. You can only move yourself...

-PIG Insider

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Forex Today

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Forex today cheered a risk-friendly market environment, as the revival of hopes over the US-China trade resolution boosted the sentiment across Asia. Among the Asia-pac currencies, the Yen traded on the back foot amid risk-on action in the Asian equities, sending USD/JPYback near 109.50 levels. The Japanese benchmark, the Nikkei 225 index, rallied 1.30% to test the 20,700 level.

Meanwhile, the Antipodeans traded modestly flat, divided between China slowdown fears and US-China trade optimism. The Aussie kept its range around the 0.72 handle while its OZ neighbor, the Kiwi, hovered near 0.6760 region. The commodity-currencies were also unfazed by the rise in oil prices.

Main Topics in Asia

ECB rate hike on the backburner once again - Reuters poll

NBS: China revises 2017 GDP growth down to 6.8% y/y vs. 6.9% previous

Mnuchin, Treasury don't see eye-to-eye on China tariffs

Japan’s Aso: Making changes to budget due to the wages issue

Gold Technical Analysis: break above $1,300 elusive despite "golden crossover"

BoJ vexed by inflation at seven-month low

Fitch: Housing market risks through Asia-pac region are varied

China's Liu: China, Germany agree to lower entry barriers

OPEC and its allies to hold extraordinary general meeting on Apr. 17-18

Key Focus Ahead

Friday’s EUR macro calendar remains eventful, kicking-off with the Swiss producer and import prices due at 0815 GMT. Thereafter, the Eurozone current account figures will drop in at 0900 GMT. The key highlight this session would be on the UK retail sales data, although the impact of the data on the pound is likely to be limited, as the Brexit uncertainty continue to remain the exclusive driver. The UK retail sales for December is likely to drop by 0.8% m/m while steadying at 3.6% y/y.

In the NA session, the Canadian CPI data, due at 1330 GMT, will headline, followed by the US industrial production and UoM consumer sentiment data slated for release at 1415 GMT and 1500 GMT respectively. Meanwhile, for the oil traders, Bakers Hughes oil rigs count data due at 1800 GMT will hold a major significance. Apart from the economic data, the speech by the FOMC member Williams is seen at 1405 GMT.

EUR/USD holds below 1.14, economists push out the ECB rate hike forecast

The rising odds of the ECB rate hike delay could keep the EUR under pressure. As a result, EUR/USD is more likely to invalidate bearish exhaustion signaled by yesterday's doji with a move below 1.1370.

GBP/USD set for a challenge of 1.3000, lagging UK retail sales clouding the picture

Retail Sales data is slated for Friday morning, dropping at 09:30 GMT with December's annualized Retail Sales forecast to hold steady at 3.6%, but the decidedly mid-tier data is unlikely to drive much attention as markets remain focused on Brexit developments.

Canada’s inflation Preview: Inflation data unalter the outlook for ongoing policy tightening towards neutral

Canada’s inflation is expected to remain stable at 1.7% over the year in December, missing the official inflation target of 2% at the end of the year.

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Preview: Lower is relative

The University of Michigan will release it Consumer Sentiment Index for January at 10:00 am EST 15:00 GMT on Friday January 18th.

The Partial US Government Shutdown: Much ado about politics

A quarter of the US government has been shuttered for  a month and the economic impact is hard to discern.

Source: fxstreet.com

Forex today cheered a risk-friendly market environment, as the revival of hopes over the US-China trade resolution boosted the sentiment across Asia. Among the Asia-pac currencies, the Yen traded on the ...

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PAMMs Daily Update

 Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_PAMMS_MANAGED_ACCOUNTS_PROFIT_17.01.2019

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Forex Trading Wisdom

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...One common adage...that is completely wrongheaded is: You can't go broke taking profits...

-William Eckhardt

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Forex Tech Targets

Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_Tech-analysis_Tech-Targets_Bulls-and-bears-17.01.2019

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, 1.1485): EUR is mild downward pressure, could test 1.1330 support.

EUR edged below Tuesday’s (15 Jan) low of 1.1378 and touched 1.1374 before recovering slightly. The price action reinforces our view wherein EUR is “under mild downward pressure” and we continue to see chance for a test of the 1.1330 support. However, the next support at 1.1300 is a major level and is unlikely to yield so easily. On the upside, only a move above 1.1480 (level was at 1.1500 yesterday) would indicate that the current mild downward pressure has eased.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, spot at 1.2795): Outlook is mixed; GBP is likely to gyrate in a broad range. No change in view.

We highlighted on Monday (14 Jan, spot at 1.2850) that there is scope for the current recovery in GBP to extend to 1.2950. GBP subsequently touched 1.2930 before plunging to 1.2670 yesterday. The equally rapid and strong rebound from the low has resulted in a mixed outlook. In view of the current fluid and highly uncertain Brexit event, GBP could continue to trade in a volatile manner. From a slightly longer-term perspective, the key resistance is at 1.3000 and only a clear break of this level would suggest that GBP is ready to march higher in the weeks to come (1.2950 is a relatively strong intervening resistance). On the downside, the price action since the ‘flash-crash’ earlier this month suggests the 1.2409 low is unlikely to come back into the picture anytime soon. On a short-term note, 1.2600 is already a solid support. Putting it all together, GBP could continue to gyrate within a broad 1.2600/1.3000 range for the next couple of weeks.

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 13 Sep 18, spot at 0.7170): Recovery in AUD has room to extend to 0.7270.

Despite the relatively deep pull-back in AUD yesterday (NY close of 0.7167, -0.50%), it is too early to expect a short-term top. We continue to hold the view that the recovery from the ‘flash crash’ low has room to extend to 0.7270. That said, yesterday’s price action has dented the upward momentum and the prospect for 0.7270 to be tested has diminished. On the downside, a move below 0.7120 would indicate last week’s 0.7235 high is a short-term top.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 07 Dec 18, 0.6880): NZD under mild downward pressure, could grind lower to 0.6710.

We expected NZD to trade sideways and highlighted “only an unlikely NY closing above 0.6850 would indicate that NZD is ready to challenge the major 0.6900 level”. We added, “a move below 0.6765 is enough to indicate that the current mild upward pressure has eased”. NZD cracked 0.6765 without much difficulty and hit 0.6756 during London hours. Despite the relatively large drop, there is only a slight improvement in downward pressure. From here, barring a move above the still very strong level of 0.6850, NZD is expected to grind lower to 0.6710 in the coming days. At this stage, the prospect for a sustained decline below 0.6710 is not high.

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 09 Oct 18, 113.10): USD could test 109.40 but a sustained up-move appears unlikely.

While USD moved above the top of our expected 107.00/109.00 sideway-trading range and closed at a post-‘flash crash’ high of 109.08 (+0.38%), we have doubts about the sustainability of the current short-term USD strength. That said, a test of 109.40 is not ruled out but only an unlikely NY closing above this level would suggest USD is ready to challenge 110.00. Meanwhile, USD could stay underpinned for the next few days and only a move below 108.40 would suggest the current mild upward pressure has eased.

Source: efxdata.com

EUR edged below Tuesday’s (15 Jan) low of 1.1378 and touched 1.1374 before recovering slightly. The price action reinforces our view wherein EUR is “under mild downward pressure” and we continue to see chance for a test of the 1.1330 support...

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PAMMs Daily Update

 Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_PAMMS_MANAGED_ACCOUNTS_PROFIT_16.01.2019

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Forex Trading Wisdom

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...There is the plain fool who does the wrong thing at all times anywhere, but there is the trader fool who thinks he must trade all the time...

-Jesse Livermore

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UK: On course for a hard Brexit?

Forex_Hard_Brexit_FXPIG

According to Jane Foley, senior FX strategist at Rabobank, the strength of last night’s vote in the UK’s House of Commons against PM May’s Withdrawal bill makes it very clear that there is no deal in place between the UK and the EU.

Key Quotes

“Technically this means that the economy is on course for a hard Brexit.  Understandably, many UK businesses will be worried by this outlook.  The pound, by contrast, is currently trading at firmer levels than yesterday.  Despite the legal predicament of the UK economy, investors are taking the view that a hard Brexit is unlikely and that last night’s Commons vote has not significantly altered that risk.”

“Going forward the confidence of GBP bulls is likely to be sapped if there is little near-term progress in finding a Brexit compromise and if there is no effort to push back the exit date on March 29. Confirmation that the Brexit start date is set to be delayed would send a strong signal that parliament is not prepared to send the UK over the cliff edge without a deal being first in place.  This could be sufficient to create a sizeable GBP rally.  That said, a delay would also imply that uncertainty about the shape of the Withdrawal Bill is likely to extend for longer.”

“Additionally, the fact that talks about the UK’s EU future relationship are set to extend for another two years after the start of Brexit suggest that the pound has a long way to go before it finally shakes off the mantle of political uncertainty.   In the near-term, EUR/GBP has the potentially to pull back to the 0.87 area, and potentially below, if it is confirmed that May will seek a cross party compromise and push back the start date for Brexit.  PM Question Time at noon GMT today and the subsequent parliamentary debate triggered by Corbyn’s no confidence motion will be keenly watched by UK markets.”

Source: fxstreet.com

The strength of last night’s vote in the UK’s House of Commons against PM May’s Withdrawal bill makes it very clear that there is no deal in place between the UK and the EU...

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PAMMs Daily Update

Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_PAMMS_MANAGED_ACCOUNTS_PROFIT_15.01.2019

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Forex Tech Targets

Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_Tech-analysis_Tech-Targets_Bulls-and-bears-16.01.2019

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, 1.1485): EUR is mild downward pressure, could test 1.1330 support.

We highlighted yesterday (15 Jan, spot at 1.1470) that EUR has likely ‘lapsed’ back into a consolidation phase and is expected to trade sideways within a 1.1410/1.1550 range. EUR subsequently cracked the bottom of the expected range at 1.1410 with ease and dropped to a low of 1.1378 before ending the day on a weak note (NY close of 1.1414, -0.52%). The rapid pick-up in downward momentum came as surprise and from here, we expect EUR to stay under pressure (albeit mildly). While EUR could test 1.1330 in the coming days, the next support at 1.1300 is a major level and is unlikely to yield so easily. All in, only a move back above 1.1500 (minor resistance is at 1.1460) would indicate that the current mild downward pressure has eased.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, spot at 1.2795): Outlook is mixed; GBP is likely to gyrate in a broad range.

We highlighted on Monday (14 Jan, spot at 1.2850) that there is scope for the current recovery in GBP to extend to 1.2950. GBP subsequently touched 1.2930 before plunging to 1.2670 yesterday. The equally rapid and strong rebound from the low has resulted in a mixed outlook. In view of the current fluid and highly uncertain Brexit event, GBP could continue to trade in a volatile manner. From a slightly longer-term perspective, the key resistance is at 1.3000 and only a clear break of this level would suggest that GBP is ready to march higher in the weeks to come (1.2950 is a relatively strong intervening resistance). On the downside, the price action since the ‘flash-crash’ earlier this month suggests the 1.2409 low is unlikely to come back into the picture anytime soon. On a short-term note, 1.2600 is already a solid support. Putting it all together, GBP could continue to gyrate within a broad 1.2600/1.3000 range for the next couple of weeks.

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 13 Sep 18, spot at 0.7170): Recovery in AUD has room to extend to 0.7270.

We highlighted on Monday (14 Jan, spot at 0.7205) that overbought short-term conditions could “could lead to a few days of consolidation first before a move to 0.7270 can be expected”. Since then, AUD hardly budged as it traded sideways within narrow ranges. In other words, there is no change to our view and only a move below 0.7120 would indicate that the current mild upward pressure has eased.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 07 Dec 18, 0.6880): NZD to consolidate at these higher levels.

NZD edged briefly above last Friday’s (11 Jan) 0.6843 high but eased off quickly after touching 0.6848 and closed largely unchanged in NY (0.6818, -0.04%). The price action reinforces our view wherein NZD is likely to “consolidate at these higher levels”. As highlighted on Monday (14 Jan, spot at 0.6825), only an unlikely NY closing above 0.6850 would indicate that NZD is ready to challenge the major 0.6900 level. Meanwhile, NZD could continue to consolidate for another couple more days. On the downside, a move below 0.6765 is enough to indicate that the current mild upward pressure has eased.

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 09 Oct 18, 113.10): USD is expected to trade sideways for now. No change in view.

There is not much to add as USD traded in a relatively calm manner after the ‘flash crash’ earlier this month. The outlook remains unclear and we continue to view the current price action as part of a broad 107.00/109.00 sideway-trading range.

Source:efxdata.com

EUR has likely ‘lapsed’ back into a consolidation phase and is expected to trade sideways within a 1.1410/1.1550 range. EUR subsequently cracked the bottom of the expected range at 1.1410 with ease and dropped to a low of 1.1378 before ending the day on a weak note...

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GBP Volatile

Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_Brexit_GBP-volatile_Berxit-vote

Earlier in the session, sterling tapped 2-month highs

The British pound bounced around Tuesday, briefly pushing to pushing to levels not seen since mid-November, hours ahead of a crucial vote on an exit plan for the U.K. to leave the European Union.

Giving up most of an earlier lead, sterling GBPUSD, -0.0855% last bought $1.2874, slightly higher than $1.2866 late Monday, but has tapped a session high so far of $1.2917, putting it at levels not seen since mid November. The pound saw similar highs in Monday’s session, but retraced those gains as Tory whip Gareth Johnson resigned as U.S. trading hours began.

The pound remained firm against the euro EURGBP, -0.1683% with the shared currency buying £0.8901, down 0.2% on the session, according to FactSet data.

Most observers believe U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May will see her Brexit deal defeated in Parliament Tuesday evening, with a vote expected to take place around 10:30 p.m. U.K. time. Sterling’s direction, according to many strategists, will hinge on just how much the voting goes against her.

“Brussels have stood firm, refusing to offer anything other than warm words to Theresa May as she heads to the Parliamentary show down. With no further reassurances over the Irish backstop there has not been the change in tide that Theresa May needed,” said Jasper Lawler, head of research at London Capital Group, who expects a “knee jerk sell off in the pound until the next steps or Plan B are given.”

The so-called backstop governs the treatment of the border between Northern Ireland, which is part of the U.K., and EU member state Ireland following Brexit. Hard-line Brexiteers worry it will keep a back door open to the EU. May, who has been adamant that the backstop is just a short-term solution to deal with the border issue, has gained public support for her stance from European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, though still without providing a set timeline.

As for a Plan B, Lawler said that it will probably mean renegotiations and extension of Article 50, or an extension to its March 29 date for leaving the EU. That date is based on the two-year breakup period that started when May gave official notice the U.K. would leave the union.

Tuesday’s vote was initially scheduled for December but was delayed as May expected to be defeated. Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn meanwhile said last week that the handling of Brexit demanded fresh elections.

Elsewhere, the ICE U.S. Dollar Index was flat at 95.691, while the dollar USDJPY, +0.44%  was moving higher against the Japanese yen at ¥108.54 from ¥108.15 late Monday.

Source: marketwatch.com

The British pound bounced around Tuesday, briefly pushing to pushing to levels not seen since mid-November, hours ahead of a crucial vote on an exit plan for the U.K. to leave the European Union...

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Forex Trading Wisdom

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...Perfection is not attainable, but if we chase perfection we can catch excellence...

-PIG Insider

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PAMMs Daily Update

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PAMMs Weekly Update

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FOREX Tech Targets

Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_Tech-analysis_Tech-Targets_Bulls-and-bears-14.01.2019

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, 1.1485): EUR strength has scope to test the major 1.1620 level.

While the ‘key support’ indicated at 1.1440 is still intact (low of 1.1455 last Friday), the weak daily closing in NY (1.1468, -0.26%) suggests that our expectation for EUR to test the major 1.1620 resistance level is likely wrong. However, we would hold on to the view for now even though a breach of the 1.1440 support would not be surprising (see 24-hour view above). In order to revive the current flagging momentum, EUR has to move and stay above 1.1520 within these 1 to 2 days. Looking ahead, a move below 1.1440 would indicate that EUR is still caught within a broad sideway trading range and is not ready to advance just yet.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, spot at 1.2795): Scope for recovery in GBP to extend to 1.2950.

We have the same view since last Monday (07 Jan, spot at 1.2725) that while there is a slight upward bias, “any GBP strength is viewed as part of a broad 1.2600/1.2850 range”. After trading sideways for several days, GBP took out 1.2850 last Friday and hit 1.2866 before ending the day on a firm note at 1.2838 (+0.66%). Despite the relatively positive price action, we are not convinced that the current GBP strength can be sustained. That said, there is scope for the recovery to extend to 1.2950. Only a clear break above 1.2950 would suggest that GBP is ready for a sustained up-move. In the meanwhile, GBP is expected to stay underpinned in the coming days until a break of the ‘key support’ at 1.2750.

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 13 Sep 18, spot at 0.7170): Recovery in AUD has room to extend to 0.7270.

While we noted in recent updates that the “outlook for AUD is slightly positive”, the ease of which AUD took out 0.7205 and the subsequent rise to 0.7235 last Friday came as a surprise. The price action suggests the recovery in AUD has room to extend further but at this stage, the prospect for a clear and sustained break above 0.7270 is not high. All in, we expected AUD to stay underpinned as long as 0.7120 is intact (level was at 0.7055 previously). From a shorter-term perspective, overbought conditions could lead to a few days of consolidation first before a move to 0.7270 can be expected.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 07 Dec 18, 0.6880): NZD to consolidate at these higher levels.

We have held the same view since last Monday (07 Jan, spot at 0.6735) wherein the “strong recovery in NZD has scope to extend higher” but “the prospect for a sustained move above 0.6830 is not high”. NZD touched 0.6843 last Friday before ending the day on a strong note (NY close of 0.6837, +0.82%). While the underlying tone has improved, we are still of the view that the prospect for a sustained move above 0.6830 is not high. Only an unlikely NY closing above 0.6850 would indicate that NZD is ready to challenge the major 0.6900 level. Meanwhile, NZD could consolidate and trade sideways at these higher levels for several days

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 09 Oct 18, 113.10): USD is expected to trade sideways for now.

USD traded within a tight range last Friday and the price action offers no fresh clues. In other words, there is no change to our view and we continue to expect USD to trade sideways for now, likely between 107.00 and 109.00.

Source: efxdata.com

While the ‘key support’ indicated at 1.1440 is still intact (low of 1.1455 last Friday), the weak daily closing in NY (1.1468, -0.26%) suggests that our expectation for EUR to test the major 1.1620 resistance level is likely wrong. However...

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