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ECB preview: It’s all about the strategy – ING

ECB-startegy_Forex_FXPIG

According to Carsten Brzeski, Chief Economist at ING Germany, this week's European Central Bank meeting should be rather uneventful regarding monetary policy but the official start of the strategy review should be the highlight.

Key Quotes:

“Waiting for more guidance on growth and inflation developments, the highlight of this week’s meeting should be the announcement of the official start of the strategy review. A lot has been said and speculated, both by market participants and ECB officials. Now, with all changes in the ECB’s Executive Board behind us, it is time to set out some parameters like, for example, scope and timing of the review. Christine Lagarde already gave some ideas at the December meeting, also stating that in her view the review should be concluded before the end of the year.”

“In this regard, decisions to include external parties, be it academics, politicians, ‘ordinary people’ or other interest groups would have a clear impact on the length of the process, making the deadline of end-2020 more ambitious than it currently sounds. According to Lagarde, the review would also look at the monetary policy instruments. A recent working paper of more than 300 pages by influential ECB officials already gives an idea of where the ECB currently stands.”

“In our view, the most important part of the review will be an assessment of the definition of price stability and how to reach it. We still think that eventually, a new definition (of “around 2%) would institutionalise symmetry while at the same time provide maximum flexibility; more than any point range would offer.”

Source: fxstreet

According to Carsten Brzeski, Chief Economist at ING Germany, this week's European Central Bank meeting should be rather uneventful regarding monetary policy but the official start of the strategy review should be the highlight...

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Forex Week Ahead

Forex_week_ahead_to keep rates_Forex_FXPIG

The debates on how much of an impact the Phase One trade deal will have on the global outlook will continue as market concerns fall on the Davos forum, central bank rate decisions and earnings season.  The upcoming week is shortened since US equity and bond markets will be closed on Monday for the observance of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday.  A good amount of attention will fall on Davos, Switzerland as world leaders and the biggest business billionaires will be addressing a wide-range of topics.

  • Disappointing UK PMI data could cement expectations for the BOE to cut rates at the end of the month
  • Euro could stabilize if the Eurozone manufacturing PMI readings have better than expected rebounds
  • Wall Street may finally start fading the US-China trade deal euphoria as the focus shifts to tech earnings

A few big rate decisions will occur this week with no changes in policy expected from the BOJ, BOC, and ECB.  ECB Chief Lagarde will also begin to outline the beginning of a complete outline of the monetary strategic review.  We could see some broad strokes but don’t expect any major hints on changes to their current tools in place.  The overall mood for risk appetite will take some queues from the German ZEW Survey and the euro zone flash PMI readings.  With some clarity being delivered from the phase-one trade deal, expectations are high for improving sentiment with manufacturers in Europe.  This week, the fate of the dollar will likely be more reliant on macro story from Europe than from any US economic data points.

Country

US

US stocks have been on a tear following a strong start to earnings season by the banks, the signing of the phase-one trade deal and de-escalation with the US-Iran conflict.  Despite the strong move with US equities, global currency volatility has fallen to a record low.  Right now, the Fed is widely expected to do nothing for the rest of the year regarding rates, but they will soon try to temper balance sheet growth expectations. The dollar remains overvalued but won’t break unless we start to see better than expected data globally.  With strong demand for US Treasuries the dollar could remain stubbornly strong in short-term.

The second week of earnings season will focus on tech as we will see results from Netflix, IBM and Intel.  Optimism is going for a better than expected earnings season as the banks have signaled the US consumer is strong and credit markets are healthy.

US Politics

While much of the mainstream media will focus on the impeachment trial of President Trump, Wall Street does not care.  Markets have shown almost no reaction to the entire impeachment process and remain heavily confident Trump will complete his first term.

UK

The topic of conversation has very much changed this week from the election result and Brexit to the Bank of England and an imminent interest rate cut. A series of weak data points combined with some dovish commentary from policymakers Silvana Tenreyro and Gertjan Vlieghe have ramped up the odds of a cut later this month from around 5% to above 70%. The timing looks a little peculiar given the period the data covers but there has clearly been a shift within the MPC towards a rate cut. The meeting on 30 January is now very much live and therefore the jobs data on Tuesday and PMIs on Friday, not to mention commentary from various policy makers, will be very closely followed next week.

Eurozone

The ECB meeting next week is unlikely to create too many fireworks. The previous stimulus package was substantial and is unlikely to be added to in the near-term, barring a dramatic change in the data. Expect more warnings about downside risks and the need for more of a response on the fiscal side.

Norway

The Norwegian central bank has been on a tightening cycle since the summer of 2018, raising rates four times in that period from 0.5% to 1.5% where it stands today. The January meeting is an interim meeting, meaning no press conference or new rate path. As such, no rate hike is likely at this meeting, but the statement may hold clues about the path of travel under the new committee and if that’s changed from the last 18 months.

Russia

Vladimir Putin is planning the for the end of his term in 2024 by, it seems, reducing the power of the Presidency and replacing the Prime Minister. It’s unclear at this stage what his plan is but it’s suggested he’s effectively laying the groundwork to hold onto power in another way via constitutional change. It wouldn’t be the first time he’s got around term limits but it seems he’s being a little more creative on this occasion while masking it as a democratic shift, giving more power to Parliament.

Mexico

The Mexican peso is rallying alongside all the Latin American currencies as the phase-one trade deal has triggered an emerging market rally.  Mexico is also benefitting from the Senate passing of the USMCA trade deal.  Mexico’s economy will see a strong bump with exports, but trader’s looking for further peso strength might be disappointed as outflows are possibly signaling hedge funds are cashing out of their trades.

Turkey

The lira could see further pressure as the initial rally following their fifth consecutive rate cut was faded.  Turkey has been slashing rates since the summer, a total reduction by 1,275 basis points has brought the one-week repo rate to 11.25%.  Turkey reportedly is pressuring state-owned banks to support their currency, but that is a dangerous game if the macroeconomic indicators take a turn for the worse.

Hong Kong

Tight short-term funding rates have pushed the Hong Kong dollar higher at the start of the year, with USD/HKD dropping into the lower half of the permitted trading band. Better funding conditions will likely see the FX pair moving higher, with the threat of a return to violent protests exerting upward pressure.

On the protest front, talk is that an “anti-communist” rally will be held next week, with a “rehearsal” staged last Sunday. That event passed peacefully but the risk is always there.

Data-wise, unemployment on Monday and consumer prices on Tuesday are the highlights.

Risk

As always, there is the risk that protests escalate and turn violent again, which would be negative for the HK33 index and could push USD/HKD back to the upper half of the trading band.

China

Now that the Phase 1 trade deal has been signed and details have been released, it’s up to Beijing to keep on track to deliver on its promises on US purchases. US has already said there will be no adjustment to China tariffs before the US presidential election in November, which will probably be the first evaluation as to how well China is adhering to the T&Cs.

Next week is a shortened week, with China starting to focus on the Lunar New Year holidays from mid-week onwards, though the celebrations don’t start until Friday. There are no major data releases next week.

Risk

Markets will be constantly monitoring China’s compliance with its commitment to purchase US goods, with a greater risk of under-performance rather than excess. That would be negative for risk, hurt the CN50 index and probably boost USD/CNH.

India

India’s Supreme Court is due to hear pleas challenging the new citizenship law on January 22, with tensions likely to be high in the run-up and more protests likely. It’s a question of how violent they get. There is talk that diplomatic channels are working on a US President Trump visit to India by end-February.

Risk

Escalation from either side or political rhetoric would be negative for the INR and Indian equities.

Australia

Thursday’s release of December employment data will be the key event to set the tone for the rest of the month. Now that the wildfires raging in Queensland and New South Wales appear to be gradually being brought under control, the real economic damage will start to be assessed. Implications for the insurance sector have been said to be manageable, but it is the amount of additional fiscal spending to rebuild that could have a greater impact. Economic activity for Q4 and beyond will no doubt take a hit, but a massive unplanned fiscal budget could hurt local bond markets and currency.

Risk

Any downside misses on the employment data could reignite dovish RBA chatter, which would be negative for the AUD. An exaggerated fiscal deficit would also be detrimental. There is still some talk that the RBA may be forced into QE in the second half of 2020, which could keep the Aussie pegged back.

New Zealand

Very quiet on the data front next week, with no other issues facing the country.

Japan

The BOJ rate meeting on Tuesday is expected to be another lame duck, with no shift in policy rates or bond buying programs expected. However, a dovish outlook report could hurt equities. December’s trade data on Thursday could perform better than expected, given the uptick in Chinese and South Korean numbers for the same month.

Risk

Continuing deterioration in exports could hit the Japan225 index, as would a dismal Q4 outlook. The yen, as usual, will be swayed by the risk-on, risk-off gyrations.

Market

Oil

Oil prices are stabilizing on improved demand outlooks since the phase-one trade deal will revive global manufacturing.  The oil rout may be over and we could start to see prices trade more rangebound.  If the global manufacturing rebound shows signs of improving next week, crude prices may remain supported.

Gold

US stocks are constantly making fresh record highs, currency volatility is at a record low, but something must give.  Gold prices are likely to see longer-term support as a plethora of geopolitical risks firmly remain in place.  Middle East tensions are likely flare up again, concerns are growing that the Fed will shortly address the tempering of balance sheet growth, and 2020 election uncertainty will keep long-term investors wanting to own gold.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin seems to have a firm bottom in place and as hedge-fund demand improves we could see prices look to make a run at the $10,000 level.  Selling pressures from regulatory hurdles seem to have run their course and investors are growing optimistic the halving event in May will provide significant support over the newt few months.

Economic Releases and Events

Monday, January 20th

2:00 am EUR Dec Germany PPI M/M: 0.0%e v 0.0% prior

3:30 am HKD Dec Hong Kong Unemployment Rate: 3.3%e v 3.2% prior

8:30 am CAD Dec Canada Teranet House Price Index M/M: No est v 0.2% prior

Bank of Japan (BOJ) Rate Decision: Expected to keep policy unchanged

Tuesday, January 21st

Davos World Economic Forum (ends on Friday)

1:00 am SEK SEB releases Nordic Outlook

2:00 am SEK Swedbank release Economic Outlook

4:30 am GBP Dec UK Jobless Claims Change: No est v 28.8K prior

4:30 am GBP Nov UK Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y: No est v 3.2% prior

4:30 am GBP Nov UK ILO Unemployment Rate 3Months: 3.8%e v 3.8% prior

5:00 am EUR Jan Germany ZEW Current Situation: -13.5e v -19.9 prior

5:00 am EUR Jan Germany ZEW Expectations Survey: 13.0e v 10.7 prior

5:00 am EUR Jan Eurozone Expectations Survey: No est v 11.2 prior

7:00 am MXN Dec Mexico Unemployment Rate(non-seasonally adj): No est v 3.4% prior

8:30 am CAD Nov Manufacturing Sales M/M: No est v -0.7% prior

6:30 pm AUD Jan Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index: No est v 95.1 prior

Wednesday, January 22nd

2:45 am EUR Jan France Manufacturing Confidence: 101e v 102 prior

3:00 am ZAR Dec South Africa CPI Y/Y: 4.1%e v 3.6% prior

8:30 am CAD Dec Canada CPI Y/Y: 2.2% prior

8:30 am USD Dec Chicago Fed National Activity Index: No est v 0.56 prior

10:00 am CAD Bank of Canada (BOC) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to keep rates steady at 1.75%

10:00 am USD Dec Existing Home Sales M/M: 1.4%e v -1.7% prior

11:15 am CAD BOC Gov Poloz Rate Decision Press Conf

6:50 pm JPY Dec Japan Trade (JPY): -161.0Be v -82.1B prior

7:30 pm AUD Dec Australia Employment Change: 15.0Ke v 39.9K prior

Thursday, January 23rd

00:00 am SGD Dec Singapore CPI Y/Y: 0.7%e v 0.6% prior

3:30 am SEK Dec Sweden Unemployment Rate: No est v 6.8% prior

4:00 am NOK Norges Rate Decision: Expected to key rates steady at 1.50%

7:45 am EUR ECB Rate Decision: Expected to keep rates unchanged

8:00 am RUB Dec Russia Industrial Production Y/Y: 1.9%e v 0.3% prior

8:30 am USD Weekly Jobless Claims

10:00 am USD Dec Leading Index -0.2%e v 0.0% prior

10:00 am EUR Jan Advance Consumer Confidence: -8.0e v -8.1 prior

4:45 pm NZD Q4 CPI Q/Q: 0.4%e v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 1.8%e v 1.5% prior

6:30 pm JPY Dec Japan National CPI Y/Y: 0.7%e v 0.5% prior

7:50 pm JPY BOJ Minutes of December Meeting

9:00 pm NZD Dec New Zealand Credit Card Spending Y/Y: No est v 4.5% prior

Friday, January 24th

00:00 am SGD Dec Singapore Industrial Production Y/Y: -0.8%e v -9.3% prior

3:15 am EUR France Jan Prelim Manufacturing PMI: No est v 50.4 prior

3:30 am EUR Germany Jan Prelim Manufacturing PMI: 44.2e v 43.7 prior

4:00 am EUR Eurozone Jan Prelim Manufacturing PMI: 46.7e v 46.3 prior

4:00 am ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

4:30 am GBP UK Jan Manufacturing PMI: 48.1e v 47.5 prior

7:00 am MXN Nov Mexico IGAE Y/Y: No est v -0.78% prior

8:30 am CAD Nov Retail Sales M/M: No est v -1.2% prior

9:00 am EUR Jan Belgium Business Confidence: No est v -3.4 prior

9:45 am USD Jan US Markit Manufacturing PMI: 52.8e v 52.4 prior

Source: marketpulse

The debates on how much of an impact the Phase One trade deal will have on the global outlook will continue as market concerns fall on the Davos forum, central bank rate decisions and earnings season. ..

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US: Industrial production to retreat

Industrial_production_USA_forex_FXPIG

Analysts at TD Securities suggest that following a 1.1% MoM rebound, they are looking for the US industrial production to retreat again, posting a -0.5% decline for Dec.

Key Quotes

“We expect weakness in utilities, to a larger extent, and manufacturing to drive production lower during the month.”

“We also forecast a small decline in housing starts to 1,360k in Dec (from 1,380k), while we look for UMich's consumer sentiment index to improve to 100.5 for Jan's preliminary release (from 99.3).”

Source: fxstreet

Analysts at TD Securities suggest that following a 1.1% MoM rebound, they are looking for the US industrial production to retreat again, posting a -0.5% decline for Dec...

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European stocks aim at fresh record on China data and Wall Street’s optimism

EUR-stocks_forex_FXPIG

European stocks were poised for another record session on Friday, lifted by encouraging China economic data and after Wall Street celebrated trade deal news with fresh highs.

The Stoxx Europe 600 SXXP, +0.82%  rose 0.7% to 423.72, which puts it in fresh record territory. The index closed up 0.2% to 420.52 on Thursday, which beat the prior record closing high of 419.74.

The German DAX 30 index DAX, +0.75% climbed 0.7%, while the French CAC 40 index PX1, +0.98%  and the FTSE 100 index UKX, +0.76%  rose 0.9% and 0.6%, respectively.

U.S. stock futures rose after all three major indexes closed at new records on Thursday, with financials and technology shares leading the gains. Google’s parent Alphabet GOOGL, +0.76%   became the third technology company to reach a $1 trillion market capitalization.

U.S. trade deals with China, Mexico and Canada helped seal equity gains. But some are concerned about the rising of U.S.-European Union trade tensions after the new EU Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan on Thursday said he would “robustly defend” European interests and criticized as too harsh the tariffs Americans have levied against partners, according to the New York Times.

Data reflecting a stabilizing China economy cheered investors. Growth in 2019 came in at 6.1%, down from a revised 6.6% rise in 2018, but that was in addition to encouraging numbers on retail sales and industrial production.

“It wasn’t a blow away set of numbers by any means. Yet the fact Q4 GDP remained steady at 6.0%—putting the full year figure at 6.1%—was reassuring, coming after a few quarters of declining growth,” said Connor Campbell, financial analyst at Spreadex, in a note to clients.

That data helped boost mining shares, which are sensitive to Chinese economic data as the country is a major buyer of metals. Shares of Rio Tinto RIO, +0.27% RIO, +2.82%  rose 2%, and BHP Group BHP, +2.53% was up 1.8%.

Among other shares on the move, Casino Guichard-Perrachon CO, -7.69%  slid 10.8% after the supermarket operator reported disappointing growth for its French retail unit and warned of weaker growth ahead for that business.

While the group reported upbeat Latin American growth, “we expect investors to remain focused on France as all the covenants restricting dividend payments only concern the French scope,” said Clément Genelot, analyst at Bryan, Garnier & Co., in a note to clients.

Shares of Cie. Financière Richemont CFR, +5.00%  climbed nearly 5% after the Swiss luxury-goods group posted a rise in third-quarter sales, lifted by its jewelry division. That gave other companies in the sector a boost, with Hermès International RMS, +1.18%  up 1% and Swatch Group UHR, +1.76%  up 1.8%.

Shares of NMC Health NMC, +5.48%  climbed 7% after the private health care operator said it would hire a former director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, Louis Freeh, and his firm to look into questions raised by short seller Muddy Waters over the company’s finances.

Source: marketwatch

European stocks were poised for another record session on Friday, lifted by encouraging China economic data and after Wall Street celebrated trade deal news with fresh highs...

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Breaking: GBP/USD drops below 1.3100

GBPUSD-drops-below_Forex_FXPIG
  • The UK Retail Sales drop 0.6% MoM in December.
  • The UK core Retail Sales fall 0.8% MoM in December.

The UK retail sales came in at -0.6% over the month in December vs. +0.7% expected and -0.8% previous. The core retail sales, stripping the auto motor fuel sales, stood at -0.8% MoM vs. +0.5% expected and -0.8% previous.

On an annualized basis, the UK retail sales rose 0.9% in December versus +2.6% expected and +0.8% prior while the core retail sales also advanced 0.7% in the reported month versus +0.6% previous and +2.9% expectations.

Main Points (via ONS):

“All sectors except household goods stores and fuel saw a decline in the quantity bought for the three-month on three-month movement; driven mainly by non-food stores at negative 1.0%.

The quantity bought in food stores fell by 1.3% for the monthly growth rate, which was the largest fall since December 2016, also at 1.3%.

Online sales as a proportion of all retailing was 19.0% in December 2019, compared with the 18.6% reported in November 2019.

FX Implications:

GBP/USD came under heavy selling pressure and eroded over 50-pips on the UK Retail Sales downside surprise. The spot now tests the 1.3050 level, having failed to resist the upside above the 1.31 handle.

Source: fxstreet

The UK retail sales came in at -0.6% over the month in December vs. +0.7% expected and -0.8% previous. The core retail sales, stripping the auto motor fuel sales, stood at -0.8% MoM vs. +0.5% expected and -0.8% previous...

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Crude Oil Futures:

Crude_Oil_deeper-pullback_Forex_FXPIG

In light of preliminary prints for Crude Oil futures markets from CME Group, open interest and volume shrunk by around 11.9K contracts and 151.6K contracts, respectively on Wednesday.

WTI met support around $58.00/bbl

Prices of the barrel of West Texas Intermediate remain sidelined in the $58.00 neighbourhood – or weekly lows - amidst declining open interest and volume, signalling that the prospect for a deeper retracement could be losing momentum.

Source: fxstreet

Prices of the barrel of West Texas Intermediate remain sidelined in the $58.00 neighbourhood – or weekly lows - amidst declining open interest and volume, signalling that the prospect for a ...

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EUR/USD prints weekly highs

EURUSD_weekly-highs_Forex_FXPIG
  • EUR/USD keeps the bid tone around 1.1150/60.
  • Markets’ attention now shifts to data, trade.
  • ECB minutes, US Retail Sales, Philly index coming up later.

The steady/offered bias around the greenback is allowing EUR/USD to challenge weekly peaks beyond 1.1160 on Thursday.

EUR/USD now looks to data

The pair is up for the second session in a row in the second half of the week, extending the recovery further after bottoming out in the 1.1080 region earlier in the month. The move up is also underpinned by the recent breakout of the critical 200-day SMA in the 1.1140 area.

Spot saw its upside renewed in past hours pari passu with the re-emergence of the selling bias around the greenback, which forced the US Dollar Index (DXY) to recede from YTD highs amidst declining yields and after the US and China clinched the ‘Phase 1’ trade deal on Wednesday.

Later in the session, the ECB will publish its minutes from the December meeting. Across the pond, investors will closely follow the release of December’s Retail Sales along with the Philly Fed index, weekly Claims, Business Inventories, the NAHB index and TIC flows.

What to look for around EUR

The pair left behind the key resistance area around 1.1140 and is now looking to extend the move further north. In the meantime, markets’ focus is now seen shifting to a more data-dependent stance while China and the US warm up for the ‘Phase 2’ negotiations. On the more macro view, the slowdown in the region remains far from abated and continues to justify the ‘looser for longer’ monetary stance from the ECB. On the latter, we should have a more detailed assessment of the latest ECB meeting later on Thursday with the publication of the bank’s Accounts.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment, the pair is advancing 0.12% at 1.1161 and faces the next up barrier at 1.1163 (weekly high Jan.15) seconded by 1.1186 (61.8% of the 2017-2018 rally) and finally 1.1199 (high Dec.13 2019). On the downside, a breach of 1.1095 (55-day SMA) would target 1.1085 (2020 low Jan.10) en route to 1.1064 (low Dec.20 2019).

Source: fxstreet

The pair is up for the second session in a row in the second half of the week, extending the recovery further after bottoming out in the 1.1080 region earlier in the month. The move up is also underpinned by the recent breakout of the critical ...

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Forex Today: Mixed feelings about the trade deal, US retail sales eyed, cryptos consolidate

Forex_today_Mixed-feelings_FXPIG

Here is what you need to know on Thursday, January 16:

The US and China signed Phase One of the trade deal after over three years of tensions. The accord focuses on Chinese purchases of US goods, which has specific targets. However, Beijing said that it would buy according to market principles.

Stocks advanced on Wednesday but are cooler on Thursday. Currencies are stable. Further reactions and speculation about Phase Two – which includes the more sensitive topics – will likely be in the spotlight.

US Retail Sales for December are set to show moderate increases in December after disappointing in November. Consumption is central to the world's largest economy. See Preview: ‘Twas the month after Christmas

The European Central Bank publishes its meeting minutes from the first meeting preceded by President Christine Lagarde. Any hints about the tendencies in the ECB may move the common currency. The bank kicked off its strategic review.

GBP/USD has recovered from the weakest inflation figures in three years and another dovish comment from a member of the Bank of England. Investors are eyeing Friday's retail sales.

The Russian rouble's volatility has risen after President Vladimir Putin has announced sweeping constitutional changes and triggering the resignation of his government. Putin may remain in power as PM after his term expires in 2024.

Oil prices have edged higher after inventory data showed a draw in the past week and as the post-Middle-East crisis sell-off comes to an end.

Cryptocurrencies are consolidating their gains with Bitcoin trading around $8,700.

Source: fxstreet

Here is what you need to know on Thursday, January 16:

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Gold Futures: further signs of consolidation

Gold_futures_sign_of _consolidation_for_FXPIG

According to CME Group’s estimates, open interest in Gold futures markets increased fir yet another session on Tuesday, now by around 23.K contracts. On the other hand, volume resumed the downside and dropped by nearly 9.7K contracts.

Gold met support near $1,530

Gold appears to have met some decent contention near $1,530 per ounce troy on Tuesday. This area of support is reinforced by the proximity of a Fibo retracement of the December rally around $1,532. The uptick in open interest allows for the continuation of the recovery, although declining volume could point to some rangebound in the near-term at least.


Source: fxstreet

According to CME Group’s estimates, open interest in Gold futures markets increased fir yet another session on Tuesday, now by around 23.K contracts. On the other hand, volume resumed the downside and dropped by nearly 9.7K contracts...

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Crude Oil Futures:

Crude_oil_features_Forex_FXPIG

CME Group’s latest report showed open interest in Crude Oil futures partially reversed the previous drop and rose by around 1.6K contracts on Tuesday. Volume, instead, extended the downside and shrunk by around 48.5K contracts.

WTI looks supported around $58.00

Prices of the barrel of WTI appears to have based in the $58.00 neighbourhood so far. Rising open interest and the continuation of the downtrend in volume in combination with the inconclusive session on Tuesday support this view and might even allow for a small rebound in the near term.

Source: fxstreet

CME Group’s latest report showed open interest in Crude Oil futures partially reversed the previous drop and rose by around 1.6K contracts on Tuesday. Volume, instead, extended the downside and shrunk by around 48.5K contracts.

READ MORE

Forex Today:

Tariffs-weigh-on-markets_Forex_FXPIG

Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, January 15:

Trade: The US will maintain most of the tariffs it has slapped on China at least until November – when the US elections are due. The market mood has worsened and the yen recovered on fears that Phase One of the trade deal – due to be signed today – will not be helpful enough to the global economy. Also, the administration is set to tighten pressure on Huawei, China's telecom giant.

US-EU trade: The European Commission's Phil Hogan continues trade talks in Washington after the first day of negotiations ended without a breakthrough.

GBP/USD has been recovering and recaptured at 1.30. The Bank of England's Michael Saunders – a hawk turned dove – will speak early in the day and may join the calls for cutting rates. The UK then releases inflation figures for December, with the headline Consumer Price Index expected to remain unchanged at 1.5%. See UK inflation: Cementing the rate cut or triggering a GBP/USD correction? Three scenarios

US data: The US Producer Price Index is due out today after CPI came out at 2.3% on the headline and on the core. See US inflation reinforces the Fed neutral policy. The administration is considering disallowing reporters in the lockup room to use computers for preparing their news stories, potentially delaying the publication.

Federal Reserve members Patrick Harker and Robert Kaplan – both voters in 2020 – will speak today and will likely reaffirm the bank's neutral stance.

US politics: Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House, will send the Articles of Impeachment to the Senate, setting the stage for a trial for President Donald Trump. The chances of ousting him are low. Democratic presidential hopefuls battled it out in another televised debate ahead of the Iowa caucuses. Joe Biden, former Vice President, remains the frontrunner.

Iran: While tensions with the US have eased, the European signatories of the nuclear deal are set to introduce new sanctions, trying to bring the Middle-Eastern nation back to compliance.

Cryptocurrencies have been retreating from the highs, with Bitcoin consolidating around $8,600, and Ethereum above $160. Dash stands out with a leap of over 30%.

Source: fxstreet

Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, January 15:

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EUR/USD Price Analysis

Eurusd_price-analysis_focus-remains_FXPIG
  • EUR/USD meets expected resistance in the 1.1140 region.
  • The outlook stays positive above the 55-day SMA (1.1093).

The ongoing recovery in EUR/USD has so far struggled to overcome the key barrier at the 1.1140 region, home of the key 200-day SMA.

Above this area, the buying pressure is seen regaining strength with the immediate targets then at 1.1186 (Fibo retracement) ahead of late December peaks near 1.1240.

In case sellers return to the market, then the 55-day SMA in the 1.1090 region should re-emerge on the horizon.

Source: fxstreet

The ongoing recovery in EUR/USD has so far struggled to overcome the key barrier at the 1.1140 region, home of the key 200-day SMA...

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US: Focus on Fed speak and CPI today – Rabobank

FED_focus_forex_Focus-on-FED_FXPIG

Analysts at Rabobank point out that today we will hear from Fed’s John Williams who will speak at an event in London.

Key Quotes

“Last week he reportedly said that interest rates are likely to stay low for an extended period of time due to “demographic changes, slow productivity growth, and demand for safe assets – all of which are unlikely to be reverse any time soon.” Potentially dovish remarks from Williams could be counterbalanced by Esther George who voted against all three rate cuts last year. On Monday we heard from other dissenter – Rosengren - who expressed his concerns about the impact of persistently low borrowing costs on inflation and financial stability.”

“Data wise, US CPI inflation is expected to accelerate to 2.4% y/y in December from 2.1%, but this is unlikely to change the predominant view in the market that the Fed will keep rates unchanged as the risk of a substantial increase in inflationary pressure is relatively low.

Source: fxstreet

Analysts at Rabobank point out that today we will hear from Fed’s John Williams who will speak at an event in London...

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Forex Today

Forex_today_Trade_optimism_FXPIG

Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, January 14:

Trade deal: Ahead of the Sino-American signing ceremony on Wednesday, the US dropped its tagging of China as a currency manipulator. The Chinese yuan shot higher and the upbeat mood weighed on the Japanese yen, pushing it above 110.

Investors are also encouraged by Beijing's trade balance report, which showed an increase in exports in 2019 despite the trade war and an 11% drop in commerce with the US.

EU-US trade: The European Commission's Phil Hogan heads to Washington for official trade talks with the world's largest economy. Some fear US tariffs may hurt meager growth in the old continent. Hogan's boss, EC President Ursula von der Leyen will unveil an ambitious European Green New Deal.

Fed: Raphael Bostic, President of the Atlanta branch of the Federal Reserve, has said that monetary policy is appropriate, with no need for changes. His words echo those of his peers. John Williams of the New York Fed speaks later.

The focus later shifts to the data, with the Consumer Price Index report for December. Core CPI is expected to remain at 2.3% yearly. Preview: The inflation sideshow

Cryptocurrencies have shot higher overnight, with Bitcoin hitting $8,500, the highest since November.

GBP/USD remains on the back foot after Monday's Gross Domestic Product report disappointed by contracting by 0.3%. It joined dovish comments from officials at the Bank of England.

Oil prices are extending their gradual climb down, with WTI hovering around $58. Gold is following a similar path, trading below $1,550.

Source: fxstreet

Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, January 14:

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Forex Week ahead

Forex_week_ahead_its-a-trade-deal_FXPIG

What a start to 2020!

It’s been a rather eventful first week of the year for financial markets and while next week may not be quite so action-packed, when it comes to the current climate, who knows what’s around the corner.

As far as the coming week goes, politics will continue to dominate but there are some interesting central bank meetings, as well as a few interesting economic releases that will certainly draw attention.

The signing of the US-China phase one trade deal will naturally be all over the front pages next week. Let’s face it, it’s about time. But it’s this week’s events in Iraq and Iran that people may be more interested in at this stage. Both sides may have shown a willingness to de-escalate but when it comes to these two countries, who knows.

Country

UK

It’s been rather quiet by UK standards. Boris Johnson’s strong majority in Parliament has enabled a more peaceful and straightforward process when it comes to getting his Brexit Withdrawal Agreement through Parliament. Now it’s over to the Lords but unlike on previous occasions, this is unlikely to pose any problems. Focus now shifts to phase two – trade negotiations. Ursula Von Der Leyen, President of the European Commission – was in London this week and while much of the talk was very cordial, it’s clear she believes the end of year deadline is tight and a lot has to be achieved in that time. We may not see the same kind of volatility in the pound in the near-term though. Of course, should we get closer to the end of the year, if no-deal looks possible, the panic will once again set in.

US

The focus next week will shift back to the US-China trade war. Beijing has given the all clear that for Vice Premier Liu He to sign the phase-one deal in Washington DC on January 15th.  Markets are anxiously awaiting the release of the details of the phase-one trade deal, which could start to leak a couple days before signing ceremony.

The week ahead will see a plethora of data that should highlight the US economy remains resilient. Inflation data should confirm the Fed’s decision to be on hold and the first couple regional surveys in January should so pointedly strong rebounds. Much of the focus will fall on retail sales, which should paint a picture of very strong holiday season despite poor reports from Macy’s, Kohl’s and JC Penney.

Earnings season also begins with the big banks reporting first.  All signs point for the financials to indicate the US consumer remains strong.  Key quarterly updates will be followed by Fastenal, Alcoa, Taiwan Semiconductor and trucking giant, JB Hunt.  With trade tensions simmering, Wall Street will look to see if corporate America will have improved guidance for 2020.

US Politics

Democrats are slowly abandoning Trump’s impeachment saga as they turn their focus back towards the Presidential election.  The Iowa caucuses are on February 3rd and we will see if Joe Biden can hold off the other candidates.  Iowa will be key for Mayor Pete Buttigieg and if we see the two progressives candidates show they can continue their movement.  Despite almost bringing the US into a war with Iran, President Trump still has a strong economy and had the general consensus believing he will get re-elected in November.

Mexico

As trade tensions ease and the US-Iran conflict simmers down, emerging markets could see the Mexican peso become the favored carry trade.  Mexico’s Banxico has their key rate at 7.25%, extremely high when compared to the G10 currencies.  Inflation decelerated and still remains near the midpoint of the central bank’s target range and with that in mind, we could still see Mexico have one of the best interest rates out there.

With USMCA slowly getting finalized, we could continue to see the peso have a supportive macro-economic environment.

Taiwan

Taiwan Elections this weekend. Independence minded incumbent likely to win. Any suggestion of Taiwan independence could see threats made by China and pose a strong negative risk to Asian markets on Monday.

South Africa

On Saturday 11th January, South Africa’s ruling ANC Party is scheduled to issue a statement on its plans for the year ahead.

The South Africa Reserve Bank (SARB) meets on Thursday but no rate change is expected.

Turkey

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) is scheduled to meet on Thursday and another 50 basis point rate cut is expected. The central bank has surprised to the upside in the past though thanks to the lower levels of inflation in the country.

Hong Kong

Protests continue. Taiwan elections may give new impetus if the liberal candidate wins. Threats at Taiwan by China Monday could be strongly negative for Hong Kong stock market.

China

China to sign an interim trade agreement in Washington DC next week. China GDP and new loans also next week.

China sabre rattling towards Taiwan could be negative for China stocks and CNH. Below forecast GDP and new loans negative for stocks in China and regionally.

India

Ongoing protests over citizenship laws. Escalation from either side or political rhetoric could be negative for IDR and India stocks.

Australia

Australia bushfires to continue to impact domestic growth and erode Federal Govt support. Any severe downward bias to Australian data would be detrimental to local equities and the AUD, positive for bonds.

Market

Oil

Oil prices have more that reversed the spike in prices that came in the aftermath of the Soleimani assassination. Brent is trading back around $65 and is looking pretty stable at this point. Barring any further escalation in the middle east, we could see oil prices stabilize around these levels in the near-term, with global growth prospects having improved, the US and China preparing to sign a trade deal and OPEC+ committed to re-balancing.

Gold

Safe haven gold has found some stability towards the back end of the week around $1,550, not far from the levels we were trading at around at the start of the year. Gold will remain susceptible to safe haven dashes, although the tragic airliner accident may force people to reconsider their actions and encourage a sustained de-escalation.

The dollar has rebounded over the course of this week which may keep the downward pressure on the yellow metal although it’s worth remembering that prior to the events of the last week, the dollar was coming under a little pressure and supporting gold. It will be interesting to see whether that continues going forward.

Bitcoin

Like a slow puncture, the bitcoin rally is slowly deflating but there’s clearly some resilience there. The cryptocurrency faces a test around $7,500 which provided strong resistance throughout the latter part of December. A hold around here could put further pressure on $8,500 where bitcoin ran out of steam earlier this week.

Source: marketpulse

It’s been a rather eventful first week of the year for financial markets and while next week may not be quite so action-packed, when it comes to the current climate, who knows what’s around the corner.

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The WAIT Is Over

Multi_currency_bank_account_Forex_FXPIG

Santa REALLY came to our PIG Pen...err... to town... and brought you what we all have been waiting for a long time:

A MULTI-CURRENCY BANK ACCOUNT accepting 25 world currencies...


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 All you need to do now is, TRADE... or let your money work for you by joining some of our PAMMs...

And yes, there will be a lot more GREAT things to come soon, stay tuned!

Santa REALLY came to our PIG Pen...err... to town... and brought you what we all have been waiting for a long time:A MULTI-CURRENCY BANK ACCOUNT accepting 25 world currencies...

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BOE’s Tenreyro: UK labor market is not tightening further, GBP/USD drops 20-pips

BoE_Uk-labor-markets_FOREX_FXPIG

The Bank of England (BOE) policymaker Silvana Tenreyro said on Friday that “by all measures UK labor market is very tight”.

Further Comments:

UK labor market is not tightening further.

Very hard to think this is the peak of the labor market.

A reduction of uncertainty after the election and fiscal stimulus could boost the UK demand.

Expects pay growth to be sustained in early part of 2020.

Expects further below-target inflation.

Her inclination is toward a cut in rates if downside risks emerge.

Risks are tilted to the downside.

On the dovish comments from the BOE policymaker, the pound came under fresh selling pressure. The GBP/USD pair quickly eroded 20-pips to now trade near 1.3065 region, almost unchanged on the day.

Source: fxstreet

The Bank of England (BOE) policymaker Silvana Tenreyro said on Friday that “by all measures UK labor market is very tight”....

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EUR/USD stays cautious near 1.1100 ahead of Payrolls

EURUSD_stays_cautious_Forex_FXPIG
  • EUR/USD trades within a tight range around 1.1100.
  • The 55-day SMA NEAR 1.1090 acts as key support.
  • US Non-farm Payrolls expected to rule the sentiment later.

The solid weekly performance of the greenback keeps the downside pressure intact on the riskier assets, taking EUR/USD to the 1.1100 neighbourhood so far, or yearly lows.

EUR/USD focused on US data

The pair has resumed the downside following Thursday’s inconclusive price action, opening the door to another potential test of the key 55-day SMA. It is worth mentioning that below this level the downside pressure should be reinstalled.

The correction lower from late December’s peaks near 1.1240 was exclusively on the back of the recovery in the buck in response to easing tensions on the geopolitical front, which still continue to be dominated by the US-Iran effervescence.

In the meantime, the pair is expected to keep the current sidelined theme ahead of the release of December’s Non-farm Payrolls across the pond (166K exp.) in an otherwise empty docket in the euro area.

What to look for around EUR

The pair seems to have met some decent contention in the vicinity of the key 55-day SMA in the 1.1090 area. The inability of the spot to surpass the area of recent tops beyond the 1.1200 handle – ideally in the short-term horizon - carries the potential to trigger some consolidation and eventually the resumption of the downside. In the meantime, markets’ attention remains on the US-Iran conflict while some cautiousness has recently emerged regarding the imminent sign of the US-China’s ‘Phase One’ deal (on January 13th?). On the more macro view, the slowdown in the region remains far from abated and continues to justify the ‘looser for longer’ monetary stance from the ECB and the cautious/bearish view on the European currency in spite of the ongoing (temporary?) recovery.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment, the pair is losing 0.08% at 1.1096 and a breakdown of 1.1092 (55-day SMA) would target 1.1066 (low Dec.20 2019) en route to 1.1063 (100-day SMA). On the flip side, the next up barrier aligns at 1.1139 (200-day SMA) seconded by 1.1186 (61.8% of the 2017-2018 rally) and finally 1.1199 (high Dec.13 2019).

Source: fxstreet

The solid weekly performance of the greenback keeps the downside pressure intact on the riskier assets, taking EUR/USD to the 1.1100 neighbourhood so far, or yearly lows...

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AUD/USD pares early gains, turns red near 0.6860

AUDUSD_pares-early-gains_Forex_FXPIG
  • Australia's trade surplus widened to 5,8 billion AUD in November.
  • Annual CPI in China remained unchanged at 4.5% in December.
  • US Dollar Index advances to 97.50 area ahead of speeches by FOMC members.

The AUD/USD pair struggled to find direction during the Asian session amid mixed macroeconomic data releases and turned south ahead of the American session. As of writing, the pair was down 0.06% on the day at 0.6861.

Earlier in the day, the data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics revealed that Australia's trade surplus widened to 5,8 billion AUD from 4.5 billion AUD in October but came in below the market expectation of 5.9 billion AUD. Commenting on the data, "much of the sharp improvement in the trade position has been due to resources exports but the weak A$ has also helped services exports, while soft domestic growth has kept a lid on imports," noted Westpac analysts.

In the meantime, the data from China showed that inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), stayed unchanged at 4.5% on a yearly basis in December and missed analysts' estimate of 4.7%.

USD stays strong ahead of speeches by Fed officials

On the other hand, the sharp upsurge witnessed in the US Treasury bond yield on Wednesday and the better-than-expected ADP reading helped the greenback outperform its major rivals. With the US Dollar Index extending its rebound on Thursday, the pair struggled to stay in its consolidation channel and dropped into the negative territory. At the moment, the US Dollar Index is up 0.1% on the day at 97.40.

Later in the day, the weekly Initial Jobless Claims data from the United States and Federal Open Market Committee members Kaplan, Kashkari and Williams' speeches will be looked upon for fresh impetus.

Source: fxstreet

The AUD/USD pair struggled to find direction during the Asian session amid mixed macroeconomic data releases and turned south ahead of the American session. As of writing, the pair was down 0.06% on the day at 0.6861...

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Gold drops to fresh weekly lows, around $1540 level

Gold_drops-to-fresh-weekly-lows_FXPIG
  • The de-escalation of geopolitical tensions weighed on safe-haven assets.
  • Gold extended previous session’s sharp retracement from multi-year tops.

Gold continued losing ground for the second consecutive session on Thursday and dropped to fresh weekly lows, around the $1540 region in the last hour.

The precious metal extended the previous session's sharp intraday pullback from multi-year tops – levels beyond the $1600 round-figure mark – witnessed some follow-through long-unwinding trade on Thursday amid fading safe-haven demand.

Gold weighed down by improving risk sentiment

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East decrease significantly on Wednesday after the US President Donald Trump opted to impose new economic sanction on Iran rather than calling for further military action against the Islamic Republic.


The latest development led to a turnaround in the global risk sentiment and was evident from a positive move across equity markets. Markets unwound the risk-off moves, which eventually weighed heavily on traditional safe-haven assets.

The risk-on mood was further inforced by a strong intraday rally in the US Treasury bond yields, which extended some support to the US dollar and further played its part in driving flows away from the non-yielding yellow metal.

Meanwhile, the latest leg of a downfall over the past hour or so could further be attributed to some follow-through technical selling below weekly lows support near the $1555 region, paving the way for additional near-term weakness.

Moving ahead, there isn't any major market-moving economic data due for release from the US and hence, investors' appetite for riskier assets might continue to act as a key determinant of the commodity's move ahead of Friday's NFP report.

Source: fxstreet

Gold continued losing ground for the second consecutive session on Thursday and dropped to fresh weekly lows, around the $1540 region in the last hour...

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Forex Today: Sell-offs in gold, oil and Bitcoin following Mid-East calm, central bankers eyed

Forex-today_Sell-off_in_Gold_FXPIG

Here is what you need to know on Thursday, January 9:

Mid-East tensions have significantly calmed as the US and Iran step back from the brink of war and despite several Katyusha rockets falling in Baghdad's tightly secured Green Zone. President Trump announced new sanctions against Tehran but also called for fresh negotiations following Iran's retaliation. Missiles sent against American bases in Iraq seemed aimed to miss.

Stock markets are on the rise while oil and gold prices tumble down from the highs. USD/JPY has risen above 109 and AUD/USD has recovered as well. EUR/USD and GBP/USD have failed to pick a clear direction.

Chinese consumer inflation stood at 4.5% yearly in December, below expectations. Soaring pork prices are behind the high levels while producer prices remain negative at -0.5% yearly – a sign of a slowdown.

Brexit: The EU and the UK remain far apart following a visit by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Brussels remains skeptical about the chances of reaching a new trade agreement by the end of the year.

Central bankers: Several Federal Reserve officials will be speaking today: Richard Clarida, Neel Kashkari, and John Williams. Mark Carney, the outgoing Governor of the Bank of England may be more open in his public appearance as he is set to step down. Stephen Poloz, Governor of the Bank of Canada, will also talk today.

Data: ADP reported an increase of 202,000 private-sector jobs in December, on top of an upward revision for November, raising expectations for Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls. US jobless claims are awaited today.

Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin has slipped below $8,000 amid a sell-off across the board. It may be tied to the relative calm in the Middle East.

Source: fxstreet

Here is what you need to know on Thursday, January 9:

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GBP/JPY Technical Analysis:

GBPJPY_tech-analysis_Forex_FXPIG
  • Middle East tension spurs demand for perceives safe-haven assets.
  • A sharp fall in the US bond yields remained supportive of the move.
  • Investors now eye US ISM PMI, FOMC minutes for a fresh impetus.

Gold continued scaling higher through the early European session on Friday and climbed to four-month tops, around the $1545 region in the last hour.

The precious metal built on its recent strong gains and gained some strong follow-through traction for the fourth consecutive session on the last trading day of the week amid reviving safe-haven demand. Escalating geopolitical tension in the Middle East triggered a fresh wave of the global risk aversion trade and provided a strong boost to traditional safe-haven assets, including gold.

Gold benefits from escalating geopolitical tensions

Tensions in the Middle East intensified on reports that US airstrike killed Qassem Soleimani, the Iranian general who led the Revolutionary Guards’ Quds force. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has vowed that “severe retaliation” awaits those who killed the commander and raised prospects of a further escalation in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

The risk-off mood was evident from a sea of red across the global equity markets and reinforced by a sharp fall in the US Treasury bond yields, which further played their part in providing an additional boost to the non-yielding yellow metal. Meanwhile, a subdued US dollar price action did little to influence the dollar-denominated commodity or hinder the momentum to the highest level since September 5.

Moving ahead, Friday's release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI will now be looked upon for some short-term trading impetus later during the early North-American session. The key focus, however, will remain on the latest FOMC monetary policy meeting minutes, which might play a key role in determining the commodity's next leg of a directional move.

Source: fxstreet

Gold continued scaling higher through the early European session on Friday and climbed to four-month tops, around the $1545 region in the last hour...

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Gold hits fresh multi-month tops, around $1545 region

Gold-hits-fresh-multi-month-tops_Forex_FXPIG
  • Middle East tension spurs demand for perceives safe-haven assets.
  • A sharp fall in the US bond yields remained supportive of the move.
  • Investors now eye US ISM PMI, FOMC minutes for a fresh impetus.

Gold continued scaling higher through the early European session on Friday and climbed to four-month tops, around the $1545 region in the last hour.

The precious metal built on its recent strong gains and gained some strong follow-through traction for the fourth consecutive session on the last trading day of the week amid reviving safe-haven demand. Escalating geopolitical tension in the Middle East triggered a fresh wave of the global risk aversion trade and provided a strong boost to traditional safe-haven assets, including gold.

Gold benefits from escalating geopolitical tensions

Tensions in the Middle East intensified on reports that US airstrike killed Qassem Soleimani, the Iranian general who led the Revolutionary Guards’ Quds force. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has vowed that “severe retaliation” awaits those who killed the commander and raised prospects of a further escalation in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

The risk-off mood was evident from a sea of red across the global equity markets and reinforced by a sharp fall in the US Treasury bond yields, which further played their part in providing an additional boost to the non-yielding yellow metal. Meanwhile, a subdued US dollar price action did little to influence the dollar-denominated commodity or hinder the momentum to the highest level since September 5.

Moving ahead, Friday's release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI will now be looked upon for some short-term trading impetus later during the early North-American session. The key focus, however, will remain on the latest FOMC monetary policy meeting minutes, which might play a key role in determining the commodity's next leg of a directional move.

Source: fxstreet

Gold continued scaling higher through the early European session on Friday and climbed to four-month tops, around the $1545 region in the last hour...

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Forex Today:

Forex_Today_fear-grips-market_FXPIG

Here is what you need to know on Friday, January 3:

The US killed Qassem Suleimani, a top Iranian commander, in Bahgdad's airport. Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, vowed "severe revenge."

Global markets are selling off, and oil prices spiked higher. WTI topped $63, USD/JPY hit 108, Gold leaped above $1,540, and the greenback is rising across the board.

North Korea continues threatening a strike amid its escalation with the US. Relations have soured in the past few months.

The US dollar had already been on the rise before the Mid-East news broke out. The greenback reversed its losses in late 2019. EUR/USD is well below 1.12, and GBP/USD is struggling around 1.31.

The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index for December is the first top-tier release in 2020 and it serves as a hit toward next week's jobs report. It is expected to rise – but remain below 50, reflecting contraction.

See US ISM manufacturing PMI December Preview: Waiting for improvement from China trade

Late in the day, the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes from the December meeting may shed more light on the bank's latest rate cut and its decision to wait before the next moves.

See December FOMC minutes preview: Affirming neutral

Germany releases preliminary December inflation figures, a prelude to all-European statistics next week.

Brexit: Labour, the opposition party, will table an amendment to the Withdrawal Bill that will try to prevent a no-trade-deal Brexit. The chances of passing are low as Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservatives command a majority. UK construction PMI is set to show a minor improvement in December.

Cryptocurrencies are recovering after a substantial fall on Thursday, with Bitcoin trading above $7,000.

More

  • EUR/USD in 2020: Lean times soon to turn into flush times for euro dollar
  • GBP/USD in 2020: Pound may continue to fall on hard Brexit deadline
  • USD/JPY in 2020: A journey from trade fears to high-stakes election

Source: fxstreet

Here is what you need to know on Friday, January 3:

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GBP/USD: Recovery mode intact

GBPUSD_Recovery-mode-intact_Forex_FXPIG

The UK manufacturing sector activity contraction slowed a bit in the month of December, the final report from IHS Markit showed this Thursday.

The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was revised higher to 47.5 in December versus 47.6 expected and four-month lows of 47.4 – December’s first reading.

  • UK Preliminary Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly drops to 47.4

Key Points

Output, new orders and new export orders fall sharply.

Job losses reported for ninth straight month.

Rob Dobson, Director at IHS Markit, commented on the survey

“The UK manufacturing sector took a turn for the worse at the end of 2019. Output fell at the quickest pace in seven-and-a-half years as new order inflows decreased and Brexit safety stocks were reduced. With demand weak and confidence remaining subdued, input purchasing was pared back sharply and jobs cut for the ninth successive month.”

“The downturn is still being hardest felt at companies reliant on investment and business-to-business spending. The steepest reduction in output was at investment goods producers, as continued uncertainty meant new orders and new export business suffered the steepest contractions in over a decade. Intermediate goods producers also experienced marked drops in output and new work received. There was a pocket of growth, however, as consumer goods production edged higher. On this basis, it looks like UK manufacturing and the broader economy may both start the new decade as they began the last, too reliant on consumer spending and still waiting for a sustained improvement in investment levels.”

FX Implications

The GBP bulls ignore the upward revision to the UK Manufacturing PMI for December, as the data misses estimates. GBP/USD keeps its recovery mode intact near 1.3220 region on the data release, having found support just ahead of the 1.32 handle.

Source: fxstreet

The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was revised higher to 47.5 in December versus 47.6 expected and four-month lows of 47.4 – December’s first reading...

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AUD/USD: Weaker around 0.7000

AUDUSD_Weaker-around-0.7000_Forex_FXPIG
  • Aussie ignores trade optimism as USD recovery outweighs.
  • China Caixin Manufacturing PMI misses estimates, with 51.5 in Dec.
  • AUD/USD sees a negative start to 2020 despite PBOC rate cut.

Broad-based US dollar recovery remains the key theme starting out 2020, weighing negatively on most majors, including the AUD/USD pair, as it battles the 0.70 handle in early European trading.

2020 kicks off with the dollar recovering amid Chinese RRR cut, trade optimism

The major fails to benefit from the US-China phase one trade deal-led risk-on sentiment while the PBOC RRR cut to revive the Chinese economic growth and firmer copper prices also did little to help the AUD bulls. US President Trump said on the final day of 2019 that the US-China phase one trade deal will be signed on January 15th in Washington.  

The pair risks further correction as the US dollar recovery is set to extend ahead of the US macro releases and light trading. Further, the technical set up also points to a deeper correction below 0.7000, as explained by Omkar Godbole, FXStreet’s Analyst.

Omkar noted: “The 4-hour chart is reporting a bearish divergence of the relative strength index and the MACD histogram. A bearish divergence occurs when an indicator prints lower highs, contradicting higher highs on price and represents bullish exhaustion. The Doji candle seen on the 4-hour chart is also signaling buyer exhaustion and validating the overbought or above-70 reading on the 14-day RSI.”

Meanwhile, downbeat Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI data also adds to the bearish bias seen around the Aussie. China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI eased to 51.5 in Dec vs. 51.7 expected

Source: fxstreet

Broad-based US dollar recovery remains the key theme starting out 2020, weighing negatively on most majors, including the AUD/USD pair, as it battles the 0.70 handle in early European trading...

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EUR/USD: Bulls look to test multi-month highs near 1.1240

EURUSD_Bulls-look-to-test_Foex_FXPIG
  • US dollar index stalls recovery near 96.65.
  • Euro lifted by rally in German yields and upbeat German/ EZ PMIs.
  • Next of relevance remains US economic data and trade headlines.

EUR/USD has turned positive over the last hour, extending its gradual recovery from near 5-DMA support of 1.1204, as the USD bulls take a breather amid widening German-US 10-yield differential.

A solid surge in the German benchmark 10-year government bond yields has resulted in a huge gap between the German-US 10-year yields spread, eventually rendering EUR positive at the expense of the greenback.

Therefore, the US dollar’s recovery from five-month lows across its main peers stalls at 96.63, driving the spot back towards the four-month highs of 1.1241 reached on the final trading day of 2019.

Further, upward revisions to the December Eurozone and German Manufacturing PMIs also collaborates with the renewed upside in the main currency pair. Eurozone and German Final Manufacturing PMIs for December arrived at 46.3 and 43.7 respectively vs. 45.9 and 43.4 their respective flash readings.

Looking ahead, holiday-thinned trading will continue to persist, keeping the range in the spot limited. However, volatile moves cannot be ruled out amid thin conditions and ahead of the US Jobless Claims and Manufacturing PMI data. Markets also eye US-China trade updates for some trading impulse.

Source: fxstreet

EUR/USD has turned positive over the last hour, extending its gradual recovery from near 5-DMA support of 1.1204, as the USD bulls take a breather amid widening German-US 10-yield differential...

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PAMMs Yearly Update

PAMMs_Managed-accounts_Update_2019_Profit_Forex_FXPIG

Find out more about our Managed PAMM Accounts here.

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USD/CAD struggles to shakes off bearish pressure, trades around 1.3070

USDCAD_struggles_Forex_FXPIG
  • WTI closes in on $62 to help CAD stay strong.
  • US Dollar Index extends slide after erasing 0.7% last week.
  • Coming up: Pending Home Sales and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index from US.

The USD/CAD pair erased 160 pips last week pressured bu rising crude oil prices and the broad-based selling pressure surrounding the USD. After touching its lowest level in two months at 1.3062 on Friday, the pair seems to have gone into a consolidation phase on Monday and was last down 0.06% on the day at 1.3069.

Crude oil rally continues

Easing concerns over a protracted US-China trade war and upbeat macroeconomic data releases from China helped crude oil preserve its bullish momentum toward the end of the year. The barrel of West Texas Intermediate added 2.17% last week and registered weekly gains for the fourth straight time to help the commodity-sensitive loonie outperform its major rivals. At the moment, the WTI is posting modest daily gains near $61.80.

Source: fxstreet

The USD/CAD pair erased 160 pips last week pressured bu rising crude oil prices and the broad-based selling pressure surrounding the USD. After touching its lowest level in two months at 1.3062 on Friday, the pair seems to...

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Forex Today

Forex_today_dollar-pressure_end-of-year_FXPIG

Here is what you need to know on Monday, December 30:

The US dollar remains on the back foot amid end-of-year adjustments and speculation that the greenback may have a down year in 2020. Easing trade tensions and signs of growth elsewhere send investors away from the US.

EUR/USD has is trading above 1.12, the highest levels since August, while AUD/USD is near 0.70. Gold is trading above $1,500 while USD/JPY is holding above 109.

GBP/USD is also extending its recovery and trading above 1.31 as investors gear up for another turbulent year in post-Brexit trade negotiations.

Oil is on the rise as well, after reports about a US strike against targets in Syria and Iraq over the weekend. Optimism about global growth also keeps the black gold bid.

The penultimate day of the decade's calendar is light, with US Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index and Pending Home Sales having the potential to move markets.

Cryptocurrencies are consolidating their weekend gains, with Bitcoin trading around $7,300.

More

  • EUR/USD in 2020: Lean times soon to turn into flush times for euro dollar
  • GBP/USD in 2020: Pound may continue to fall on hard Brexit deadline
  • USD/JPY in 2020: A journey from trade fears to high-stakes election

Source: fxstreet

Here is what you need to know on Monday, December 30:

READ MORE

Forex Week Ahead:

Forex_week_ahead_2020

The US dollar is on the backfoot at the end of the year as the trade truce between the US and China has opened the risk appetite flood gates. Risk aversion had limited gains in global stock markets and currencies. The optimism around a phase 1 deal is still high, but more details should be coming in the new year to see how “limited” the agreement really is.

Gold is back above $1,500 to close out the year as dollar weakness and demand for bullion pushed the yellow metal higher. Higher risk appetite and signs of a trade truce put pressure on gold, but with Brexit and the US presidential elections awaiting in 2020 there will be demand for a safe haven.

The Loonie Got its Groove Back

The Canadian dollar had a standout year in 2019 and will be the biggest winner against the dollar. The rate differential has favoured the loonie as the Bank of Canada stood on hold as the Fed cut three times this year. Crude prices improved after Beijing and Washington made peace and the OPEP+ added even more stability by extending and further limiting production.

Oil prices are higher after trade between the two largest economies is now on the mend. The actions of the OPEP+ to drop production even further has boosted prices, even as countries who are not part of the agreement will look to reap the benefits.

With markets in Christmas slumber-mode, there aren’t too many risk points for Asia next week.

Hong Kong

The run-up to the Christmas season has been quiet on the protest front, and is likely to continue like that until January.
As the economy plunges deeper and deeper into recession, there is a risk that clashes could spring up among the rising unemployed (the unemployment rate rose to a 2-1/2 year high this month) and anti-government protestors. The US-China trade truce might offer a chance for the economy to rebound a touch. November’s retail sales data due on Friday January 3 are not expected to overwhelm.

Risk
As always, there is the risk that protests turn violent again, which would be negative for the HK33 index and could push USD/HKD back to the upper half of the trading band.

China

Nothing much to report now that the Phase 1 trade deal is agreed in principle, barring any unforeseen setbacks. Expectations are that it will be ratified/signed in the second half on January. There are no more data points until the December PMIs are released on New Years Eve.

Risk
Any back-tracking on the Phase 1 details would be negative for risk, hurt the CN50 index and boost USD/CNH.

India

Nothing to report until next year.
Risk
n/a

Australia

It’s almost certain that the RBA is on hold until at least the second half of 2020, barring any sudden downturn in economic data. Wildfires raging in New South Wales could hit economic activity for this quarter. Manufacturing PMI data are due on January 2.

Risk
Any severe downward bias to AU data would be detrimental to local equities and the AUD, positive for bonds.

New Zealand

Very quiet for the next week.

Japan

Japan markets are closed January 1-3, so there isn’t likely to be much activity.


Monday, December 30

• 10:45am USD Chicago PMI
• 9:00pm CNY Manufacturing PMI
• 9:00pm CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI

Tuesday, December 31

• 11:00am USD CB Consumer Confidence

Wednesday, Jan 1

• 9:45pm CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI

Thursday,Jan 2

• 5:30am GBP Final Manufacturing PMI

Friday, Jan 3

• 11:00am USD ISM Manufacturing PMI
• 12:00pm USD Crude Oil Inventories
• 3:00pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes

Source: marketpulse

The US dollar is on the backfoot at the end of the year as the trade truce between the US and China has opened the risk appetite flood gates. Risk aversion had limited ...

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Merry Christmas

Merry-Christmas_Forex_FXPIG

Count your blessings...

In this loveliest and happiest of seasons, may you find many reasons to celebrate.


May success be with you and everything you do, Merry Christmas!

Count your blessings...

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Canada: Weakness in consumer spending continues – RBC

Canada_weakness-in-consumer-spending_Forex_FXPIG

According to Nathan Janzen, senior economist at the Royal Bank of Canada, the larger-than-expected 1.2% drop in sales in October, caps off a month of broadly soft economic data reports following earlier-reported declines in October wholesale and manufacturing sale volumes.

Key Quotes

“The numbers will keep concerns alive that the domestic Canadian economic growth backdrop has lost its footing somewhat at the end of the year, particularly after an unusually bad looking November employment report.”

“To be sure, all of these monthly reports are volatile, perhaps the employment numbers most of all. The retail numbers in particular still look oddly soft given what has been an unspectacular but still decent household income backdrop.”

“Even in that ugly November employment report, strong wage growth meant that household income growth still looked okay. And the external growth backdrop has begun to look a little less scary with US/China trade tensions easing.”

“Still, Q4 GDP growth now looks like it's tracking firmly below the Bank of Canada's call for a 1.3% increase (and our own 1.4% call), and economic data releases, particularly the next Canadian labour market report, will be watched just that much more closely for confirmation that soft October/November data to-date has been more monthly volatility than new trend.”

Source: fxstreet

According to Nathan Janzen, senior economist at the Royal Bank of Canada, the larger-than-expected 1.2% drop in sales in October, caps off a month of broadly soft economic data reports following earlier-reported declines in October wholesale and manufacturing sale volumes...

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Forex Today:

Forex_today_Gold_outshines_FXPIG
  • Gold gains follow-through traction for the second straight session on Tuesday.
  • Concerns about deteriorating US-China relations benefited safe-haven assets.
  • The upside is likely to remain capped ahead of the key $1500 psychological mark.

Gold maintained its strong bid tone for the second consecutive session on Tuesday and climbed to seven-week tops, around the $1490 region in the last hour.

The precious metal added to the previous session's positive move and gained some follow-through traction through the early European session on Tuesday amid renewed concerns about US-China relations.

As investors looked past the latest trade optimism, China's criticism over the US interference in its internal affairs – concerning Taiwan, Hong Kong – underpinned the precious metal's perceived safe-haven status.

The comments raised concerns over an interim agreement between the world's two largest economies, which coupled with a subdued US dollar price action provided a goodish lift to the dollar-denominated commodity.

The greenback remained on the defensive in the wake of the overnight dismal US macro data, showing that the Durable Goods Orders data plunged by 2% in November and missed consensus estimates by a big margin.

Meanwhile, the global flight to safety was further evident from a modest pullback in the US Treasury bond yields, which further played its part in driving flows towards the non-yielding yellow metal and remained supportive.

Moving ahead, there isn't any major market-moving economic data due for release from the US. Moreover, the US markets will close earlier on the back of Christmas Eve, which might prompt traders to unwind their bullish bets.

Hence, any subsequent positive move still runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly near the $1495 confluence barrier, comprising of 100-day SMA and the top end of a 1-1/2-month-old ascending trend-channel on the daily chart.

Source: fxstreet

Gold maintained its strong bid tone for the second consecutive session on Tuesday and climbed to seven-week tops, around the $1490 region in the last hour.

READ MORE

EUR/USD: Bounce still capped

EURUSD_Bounce-still-capped_Forex_FXPIG
  • US dollar corrects lower broadly amid fresh trade optimism.
  • Falling Treasury yields lend support to EUR/USD’s bounce.
  • Focus on US Durable Goods data amid pre-Xmas light trading.

EUR/USD is seen breaking its Asian bearish consolidation phase to the upside in early European trading, as the bulls yearn to regain the 1.11 handle amid quiet pre-Christmas holiday trading and broad-based US dollar correction.

US Durable Goods Orders data to offer fresh direction?

The US dollar is retreating further away from the two-week tops reached against its main peers last Friday at 97.76, with the US dollar index now trading near daily lows of 97.61. The renewed weakness in Treasury yields amid cautious optimism is seen dragging the greenback broadly lower.

US President Trump hinted on Saturday that the phase one trade deal will be signed “very shortly” while China announced that it will adjust the tariffs on the American goods, effective Jan. 1. Markets cheer the trade positively headlines but a sense of caution prevails amid light trading in the lead upto the year-end holiday season.

However, the upside attempts in the spot appear limited, as Friday’s strong US growth numbers will continue to support the USD bulls, with easing US-China trade tensions and solid US fundamentals likely to run down expectations of Fed rate cuts next years.

Looking ahead, the immediate focus now remains on the German Bundesbank monthly economic report for fresh trading incentives while the US Durable Good Orders data will likely provide the next direction in the prices. Also, thin trading conditions could exacerbate the moves in the major.

Source: fxstreet

EUR/USD is seen breaking its Asian bearish consolidation phase to the upside in early European trading, as the bulls yearn to regain the...

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Forex Today:

Forex_today_pre-Christmas_alongside_trade-optimism_FXPIG

Here is what you need to know on Monday, December 23:

Mixed market sentiment amid fresh trade optimism, geopolitical headlines and pre-Xmas slowing volumes kept the US dollar broadly subdued, off the two-week tops.

After US President Trump said over the weekend that phase one of the trade deal with China would be signed “very shortly”, China said that it will lower import tariffs on over 850 products from Jan. 1, including frozen pork and frozen avocado.

China’s President Xi accused the US of interfering in its internal affairs during a phone with Trump. The US Treasury yields posted small loses while Wall Street futures traded on the front foot. Asian equities were a mixed bag amid strong US data and trade deal hopes.

Across the G10 fx space, AUD/USD was the strongest and reached fresh six-day highs above 0.6900 while the Canadian dollar was the main laggard, with USD/CAD firmer around 1.3160.

Among the European currencies, EUR/USD traded better bid just under 1.1100. Cable regained the 1.30 handle but rising Hard Brexit fears kept a lid on the upside.

Gold advanced above $ 1480. Crude oil traded neutral to weaker on reports that Kuwait and Saudi Arabia are closing on a deal to renew oil output along the border.

Cryptocurrencies stalled their weekend’s upbeat momentum. Bitcoin held above $ 7,500 mark.

Source: fxstreet

Here is what you need to know on Monday, December 23:

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Asian stocks: Political pessimism weighs over US-China trade progress

Asian_STocks_Forex_FXPIG
  • Asian stocks remain broadly unchanged as traders turn cautious around the multi-month top.
  • US-China near to signing a phase-one deal but China’s Xi warns the US to stay out of internal issues.
  • Year-end holiday mood, lack of data add to the market’s inactive performance.

With the political tension between the US and Beijing likely to stop the economies from any longer future trade relations, the latest news of nearness to signing phase-one seems to have largely been ignored by the Asian traders. The lack of response could also be attributed to the proximity of holiday season and multi-month high posted by the key indices recently.

MSCI’s index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan takes rounds to 685.00 with no change from Friday’s closing. However, the gauge is up nearly 10% on a quarterly basis. Further, Japan’s NIKKIE also seesaws around 23,820 with no gain/losses after rising to 14-month high during the previous month. The equities fail to follow Friday’s gains of Wall Street after the US data turned down speculations of recession in the world’s largest economy.

Australia’s ASX 200 register losses close to 0.5% while New Zealand NZX 50 benefits from last week’s upbeat data while rising 0.60% by the press time of the pre-European session on Monday.

The US 10-year treasury yields fail to hold onto Friday’s recovery while declining back to 1.91% whereas stocks in India and China also stay mostly in losses amid increased odds of weak growth performance. China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently said that industrial output from the nation is expected to grow by 5.6% in 2019 after registering 6.2% YoY growth in November.

Leaders of Japan and South Korea are in China to discuss trade and political issues. The diplomats will also shed light on risks from North Korea. Beijing has been playing the role to calm global ire against the hermit kingdom off-late.

Other than trade/political headlines, the market’s witness a lack of catalyst amid a year-end data lull and the same could limit equity’s performance.

Source: fxstreet

With the political tension between the US and Beijing likely to stop the economies from any longer future trade relations, the latest news of nearness to signing phase-one seems to have largely been ignored by the Asian traders....

READ MORE

Forex Week Ahead:

Forex-week-ahead_Market-in-holiday_FXPIG

The US economy looks resilient despite never-ending trade war concerns, President Trump’s impeachment process, and softer economic data as investors take comfort that the Fed is on hold, the US consumer is strong, and we have yet to see any major concerns come out of the credit markets.

The next major move with the US dollar could be more dependant if we see a global rebound that has the majority of its major trading partners be poised for a strong rebound in 2020. With optimism growing that much of Europe could be leaving negative rates, we could see the dollar continue to show further signs of broader weakness.

Market Awaits US-China Trade Deal Signing

Much of the attention will fall on whether we see the phase-one trade deal finalized over the beginning of January.

If we see any signs of Chinese compliance over agricultural purchases or hints over progress of talks improving over a phase-two deal, we could see further upside with global equities.

Oil
Oil is having a strong end to 2019 and on Thursday extended its winning run to six days. Marginal gains are being squeezed out in early trade which may suggest the run is about to come to an end, but broadly speaking, there’s no lack of momentum in the oil rally yet. An OPEC+ deal, US-China trade deal and maybe even an improved global outlook have created quite the bullish case for oil recently and it seems traders think there’s more room to run.

Gold
It’s becoming more and more difficult to write about gold in any kind of interesting way. The yellow metal is coasting its way into the new year and nothing seems to be wobbling it. We’ve had a trade deal, an impeachment and new records in the stock markets and yet gold just shrugs it off. A break above $1,480 would certainly make things more interesting but I’m not optimistic the way things are going.

UK Election/Brexit
The Conservative majority in last week’s general election has delivered its first result, with Parliament backing Boris Johnson’s withdrawal bill including the amendment to make it illegal to extend the transition period beyond the end of 2020. While Parliament will be busy between now and the end of January – with debates taking place on the bill on 7,8 and 9 January – from a markets perspective, the hard work is done and the cloud of uncertainty, lifted. It will soon be on to the trade deal negotiations.

US Politics
Markets should not see much of a reaction with the President’s impeachment saga as it is unlikely for the Democrats to get two-thirds of the vote in the Senate to convict Trump. The focus with US politics will likely fall on whether we see a progressive candidate, or a market friendly contender win the Democratic nomination. The Us economy remains in a good place and as long as markets are still firmly pricing in another term for President Trump or possibly a Biden, Buttigieg, or Bloomberg victory, the bullish outlook for US stocks will remain in place. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren remain the biggest risks to the outlook, however a Republican led Senate would thwart any radical changes.

Hong Kong
Protests have been less-violent since the huge win for pro-democracy candidates but Carrie Lam’s visit to Beijing this week, where she received unanimous support from Chinese authorities, could prompt a more aggressive tone by demonstrators this weekend.
There seems to be no doubt the economy is in recession in 2019 and forecasts suggest no change until mid-2020. The unemployment rate ticked higher in November and anecdotal evidence suggests more to come. The US-China trade truce might offer a modicum of support.

Risk
As always, there is the risk that protests turn violent again, which would be negative for the HK33 index. USD/HKD is still in the upper half of the trading band.

China
Nothing much to report now that the Phase 1 trade deal is agreed in principle, barring any unforeseen setbacks. There are no more data points until the December PMIs are released on New Years Eve.

Risk
Any back-tracking on the Phase 1 details would be negative for risk, hurt the CN50 index and boost USD/CNH.

Australia
This week’s jobs report has set the stage for early-2020. A strong report has pushed any thoughts of the next RBA cut out to Q2 2020, according to Bloomberg calculations.

Risk
Any change in the status of trade negotiations, or a severe downward bias to AU data, would be detrimental to local equities and the AUD, positive for bonds.

Japan
BOJ minutes from Thursday’s meeting are due on Christmas Eve, and will be the only excitement on the calendar for next week

Source: marketpulse

The US economy looks resilient despite never-ending trade war concerns, President Trump’s impeachment process, and softer economic data as investors take comfort that the Fed is on hold...

READ MORE

Christmas and New Year Trading Schedule

Merry-Christmass-and-a-happy-new-year_Forex_FXPIG_trading-schedule

Please note the below upcoming Christmas and New Year trading schedule for Instruments:

SPA and SFL feed

23rd of December

Forex            Normal Hours                                  

Metals           Normal Hours                        

GER30          Close 23:00                           

GBR_100      Normal Hours                            

SPX500         Normal Hours                           

US30              Normal Hours                          

EUR_50         Close 23:00                              

FRA_40         Normal Hours                            

NAS100         Normal Hours                           

AUS_200       Normal Hours                                  

NGAS             Normal Hours    

24th of December -Christmas Eve

Forex            Normal Hours                                  

Metals          Close 20:00                           

GER30          Closed                           

GBR_100      Early Close 14:50                           

SPX500         Early Close 20:15                           

US30              Early Close 20:15                         

EUR_50         Closed                               

FRA_40         Early Close 15:00                            

NAS100         Early Close 14:15                          

AUS_200       Early Close at 05:30                                 

NGAS            Early Close 20:45               

25th of December- Christmas 

Forex            Closed                                  

Metals          Closed                           

GER30          Closed                           

GBR_100      Closed                            

SPX500         Closed                           

US30              Closed                          

EUR_50         Closed                               

FRA_40         Closed                             

NAS100         Closed                           

AUS_200       Closed                                 

NGAS             Closed 

26th of  December 

Forex            Normal Hours                                  

Metals          Normal Hours                           

GER30          Closed                           

GBR_100      Closed                            

SPX500         Normal Hours                           

US30              Normal Hours                          

EUR_50         Closed                               

FRA_40         Closed                             

NAS100         Closed                           

AUS_200       Closed                                 

NGAS             Normal Hours

27th of December 

Forex            Normal Hours                                  

Metals          Normal Hours                           

GER30         Normal Hours                          

GBR_100     Opens at 03:00                           

SPX500        Normal Hours                           

US30            Normal Hours                         

EUR_50       Normal Hours                      

FRA_40        Normal Hours                         

NAS100        Normal Hours                       

AUS_200      Normal Hours                        

NGAS           Normal Hours

31st of December 

Forex            Normal Hours                                  

Metals           Normal Hours                           

GER30          Closed                           

GBR_100      Early Close 14:50                           

SPX500         Normal Hours                           

US30              Normal Hours                         

EUR_50         Closed                               

FRA_40         Early Close 15:00                            

NAS100         Early Close 14:50                          

AUS_200       Early Close at 05:30                                 

NGAS             Normal   

1st of January 

Forex            Closed                                  

Metals          Closed                           

GER30          Closed                           

GBR_100      Closed                            

SPX500         Closed                           

US30              Closed                          

EUR_50         Closed                               

FRA_40         Closed                             

NAS100         Closed                           

AUS_200       Closed                                 

NGAS             Closed 

2nd of January 

Forex            Normal Hours                                  

Metals          Normal Hours                           

GER30          Open 02:15                            

GBR_100     Open 03:00                         

SPX500        Normal Hours                           

US30            Normal Hours                         

EUR_50       Normal Hours                      

FRA_40       Open 09:00                         

NAS100        Open 03:00                     

AUS_200     Normal Hours                        

NGAS           Normal Hours


MPA feed

24th of December -Christmas Eve

Forex            Normal Hours                                  

Metals          Close 20:45                              

25th of December- Christmas 

Forex            Closed                                  

Metals          Closed          
                

26th of  December 

Forex            Normal Hours                                  

Metals          Normal Hours                           


31st of December 

Forex            Normal Hours                                  

Metals           Normal Hours                           


1st of January 

Forex            Closed                                  

Metals          Closed                           


2nd of January 

Forex            Normal Hours                                  

Metals          Normal Hours                           


*all times are server time (GMT+2) 
  

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!!!

Please note the below upcoming Christmas and New Year trading schedule for Instruments ...

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GBP/USD: Supported here?

GBPUSD_supported-here_Forex_FXPIG

An Analyst at Commerzbank, explains that GBP/USD probes the October 21 and 31 highs at 1.3013/1.2976 which are to offer support.

Key Quotes

“Further support can be seen along the 55 day moving average at 1.2896. Minor resistance comes in around the May high at 1.3187 as well as at the January high at 1.3217 and more significant resistance at the 1.3351/82 February and March highs.”

“Above the current December high at 1.3515 sits the December 2017 high at 1.3550 and still further up the September 2017 peak at 1.3658 as well as the February 2018 low at 1.3712, all of which remain in focus for the months to come.”

“Failure at the 1.3013/1.2976 support area would put the 200 day moving average at 1.2695 back on the plate.”

Source: fxstreet

An Analyst at Commerzbank, explains that GBP/USD probes the October 21 and 31 highs at 1.3013/1.2976 which are to offer support...

READ MORE

EUR/USD: More downside?

EURUSD_More-downside_Forex_FXPIG

In view of Axel Rudolph, analyst at Commerzbank, EUR/USD’s recent failure at the October and November highs at 1.1175/80 has taken it back to the 1.1116/01 December 4 high and December 13 low.

Key Quotes

“The next lower 1.1097 November 21 high and 55 day moving average at 1.1071 may soon also be tested. Much further down lies the December 6 low at 1.1040. Above the 1.1175/80 area remains the current December peak at 1.1200.”

“Further up the 55 week moving average can be spotted at 1.1208 and the August peak at 1.1249. Still higher up meanders the 200 week moving average at 1.1358 which remains in focus for the weeks to come. It represents a critical break point on the topside from a medium term perspective.”

“Failure at 1.0981 would target the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.0943. This is seen as the last defence for the 1.0879 October low. If revisited, we would look for signs of reversal from there.”


Source: fxstreet

In view of Axel Rudolph, analyst at Commerzbank, EUR/USD’s recent failure at the October and November highs at 1.1175/80 has taken it back to the 1.1116/01 December 4 high and December 13 low.

READ MORE

China's Premier Li:

Pressure_on-China_economy_Forex_FX{IG

Pressure on China's economy could be even bigger next year, China's Premier Li Keqiang told the state media on Thursday.

"China will keep economic operation within a reasonable range," Li added.

Amid the fact that Li delivered similar remarks back in late November, the market reaction stayed relatively muted. As of writing, the 10-year US Treasury bond yield was up 1.3% on a daily basis and the S&P 500 futures were posting small gains to suggest that Wall Street is likely to start the day slightly higher.

Source: fxstreet

Pressure on China's economy could be even bigger next year, China's Premier Li Keqiang told the state media on Thursday...

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BOJ’s Kuroda: Will continue to closely watch developments of US-China trade talks

BoJ_Kuroda_closely-watch_Forex_FXPIG

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor H. Kuroda is on the wires now, via Reuters, addressing the post-monetary policy press conference.

Key Headlines:

Overseas risks still at high level, warrants attention.

Investors' risk sentiment has improved.

Will continue to closely watch developments of US-China trade talks.

External risks have lowered but still high.

BOJ won't hesitate to ease further if risks to price momentum rise.

Active government spending to support domestic demand.

Appropriate to guide policy with easing bias.

BOJ’s negative rates policy is appropriate.

USD/JPY shows little reaction to BOJ Chief Kuroda's comments so far, keeping its range around 109.60 region ahead of the European open.

Source: fxstreet

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor H. Kuroda is on the wires now, via Reuters, addressing the post-monetary policy press conference...

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Forex Today:

Forex_today_Trump-impeachment_Aussie_FXPIG

Here is what you need to know on Thursday, December 19:

US dollar‘s two-day rally across its main competitors was capped after the US House of Representatives voted to impeach President Trump on two accounts. Trump’s impeachment stoked US political uncertainty and lifted the demand for safe-havens such as Gold and yen.  

Meanwhile, looming Hard Brexit and trade deal concerns continued to weigh on the market mood. Treasury yields dropped nearly 1% across the curve while Asian equities traded on the back foot alongside the US equity futures.  


Across the G10 fx space, the Aussie outperformed and rallied nearly 30-pips following upbeat Australian jobs data while NZD/USD failed to benefit from better NZ growth numbers.

Cable traded modestly flat below 1.3100 ahead of the key event risks – BOE, Queen’s speech and UK Retail Sales. UK Press reported that PM Johnson plans to slash rates for small businesses in Queen's Speech. EUR/USD consolidated in a familiar range below 200-DMA.

Gold advanced towards $ 1480 while Crude oil held the upside near three-month highs.  

Cryptocurrencies stalled recovery and turned south, with Bitcoin testing $ 7,100 again.

Source: fxstreet

Here is what you need to know on Thursday, December 19:

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EUR/GBP: Capped here – Commerzbank

EURGBP_capped-here_Forex_FXPIG

Analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that EUR/GBP cross swiftly bounced off its current December low at .8239 and is now retesting the November low and December 12 high at .8498/.8509, which they expect to cap.

Key Quotes

“Should this not be the case, we would have to allow for the .8522 mid-November low and the.8571/.8600 October low, 55 day moving average and late November high to be revisited.”

“Support below the December 9 low at .8393 comes in at the .8239 current December trough. Below it remain the June and October 2012 highs as well as the April 2016 high and the January and February 2014 lows at .8167/18.”

“Only a daily chart close above the .8509 December 12 high would neutralise our bearish view.”

Source: fxstreet

Analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that EUR/GBP cross swiftly bounced off its current December low at .8239 and is now retesting the November low and ...

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Former ECB Head Draghi:

Super_mario_Draghi_ECB_tools_Forex_FXPIG

Former European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi was on the wires last minutes, speaking at the ECB conference, where the current President Lagarde delivered the opening remarks but made no comments on monetary policy or economic outlook.

Market prices are a mirror of policy stance.

Central banks must be ready to use all tools in their mandate.

Meanwhile, EUR/USD stays undeterred below 1.1150 so far this Wednesday, having bounced-off fresh two-day lows of 1.1127.

Source: fxstreet

Former European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi was on the wires last minutes, speaking at the ECB conference, where the...

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Forex Today

Forex-today_Brexit-risk-appetite-hurt_FXPIG

Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, December 18:

The US dollar has emerged the outright winner across its main peers so far this Wednesday, as revived no-deal Brexit fears continued to hurt the sterling while persistent concerns over the lack of details in the US-China trade deal weighed on the higher-yielding Antipodeans.

Meanwhile, the sentiment around safe-havens such as the Japanese yen and gold remained underpinned amid cautious market mood, as the Asian equities were a mixed mag and Treasury yields reported minor losses. S&P 500 futures flipped to the negative territory heading into Europe.

Across the G10 fx space, GBP/USD was the main laggard and breached the 1.31 handle after seeing the worst daily decline in over a year on Tuesday. EUR/USD failed repeated attempts to sustain above the 200-day SMA and kept its range trade intact above 1.1100.

USD/JPY eased slightly below 109.50, in light of a potential Japan-Russia geopolitical conflict. Russia seized 5 Japanese fishing vessels on Dec, 17th. Meanwhile, the Antipodeans ignored China’s intent to ease monetary policy conditions, as dovish RBA expectations pressured the Aussie. The Kiwi saw some profit-taking slide ahead of New Zealand’s Q3 GDP report.

Gold hovered below $ 1480, Crude oil corrected from three-month highs following an unexpected climb in the weekly US Crude Stocks.

Cryptocurrencies paused the sell-off, with Bitcoin attempting a tepid bounce on $ 6,600.

Source: fxstreet

Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, December 18:

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BOJ's next move is to dial back stimulus - Reuters poll

BoJ_next-move_Forex_FXPIG

According to the latest Reuters poll, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to roll back its massive stimulus, as its next monetary policy move amid receding expectations of further monetary policy easing.

The BOJ is set to keep monetary policy steady this week.

Key Findings:

Twenty-five of 41 economists, or 61% of the total, expect the BOJ’s next move to be a withdrawal of stimulus, the poll taken between Dec. 4-16 showed. That was up from 44% in a survey in November.

Most of them say it could happen in 2021 or later.

Sixteen of the economists, or 39%, think the BOJ will top up stimulus as its next step, down from 56% in last month’s survey.

The world’s third-largest economy is forecast to have shrunk by an annualised 3.2% in the fourth quarter, which would be the biggest contraction since April-June 2014.

Growth will rebound by 0.9% and 1.2% in the first and second quarters of 2020.

The economy will expand 0.9% in the current fiscal year ending in March 2020 before slowing to 0.5% the following year, the poll predicted.

According to the latest Reuters poll, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to roll back its massive stimulus, as its next monetary policy move amid receding expectations of further monetary policy easing.

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EUR/USD off lows, still below 1.1150 amid USD comeback

EURUSD_off-lows_Forex_FXPIG
  • 200-DMA remains a tough nut to crack for the EUR bulls.
  • Trade deal doubts offer support to the USD recovery.
  • Markets await US Industrial Output and trade updates for fresh impulse.

EUR/USD came under fresh selling pressure over the last hour and eased nearly 10 pips from the Asian range trade seen between 1.1140-1.1150 levels, mainly driven by solid rebound staged by the US dollar vs. its main competitors.

At the press time, the pair has managed to jump off 1.1129 lows, as it looks to re-attempt the 200-DMA barrier, now placed at 1.1153.

EUR/USD weighed down by trade uncertainty?

The US dollar picked up the recovery momentum across the board, courtesy a fresh selling wave caught by the GBP/USD amid resurfacing no-deal Brexit fears, as the UK PM Johnson is likely to set a new deadline to prevent any extension of the Brexit transition period beyond 2020.

Additional strength in the US currency can be attributed to the doubts over the details of the US-China Phase One trade deal, with the Chinese officials not very welcoming about the specifics despite several assurances from the White House. In times of market uncertainty, investors tend to seek safety in the world’s reserve currency, the US dollar.

Meanwhile, in absence of any significant macro news from the Eurozone docket, markets look forward to the US Industrial Production and JOLTS job openings data due later in the NA session. In the meantime, the spot will continue to remain at the mercy of the USD dynamics, as the shared currency shrugs off the recent comments on the EU-US tariffs.

Source: fxstreet

EUR/USD came under fresh selling pressure over the last hour and eased nearly 10 pips from the Asian range trade seen between 1.1140-1.1150 levels, mainly driven by solid rebound staged by the US dollar vs. its main competitors...

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Forex Today

Forex_today_Fresh_Brexit_FXPIG

Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, December 17:

Fresh Brexit fears: UK press reported overnight that PM Johnson will set a new deadline to prevent any extension of the Brexit transition period beyond 2020. Hard Brexit fears resurfaced thereafter and pounded the Sterling. GBP/USD quickly eroded nearly 100-pips and fell sharply below 1.3300. Heading into Europe, Cable reverses half the slide and looks to regain 1.3300. Meanwhile, Johnson is considering a big overhaul of the House of Lords, FT reported. Focus on UK Employment data and BOE Governor Carney’s speech ahead.

Trade deal skepticism: US-China Phase One trade deal optimism faded, despite assurances from the White House that deal with China is done. The skepticism is mainly in light of Beijing's reticence in acknowledging specifics laid out by the US.


The US dollar was broadly bid, helped by the slump in GBP/USD. EUR/USD remained trapped below the 200-DMA at 1.1153. Meanwhile. USD/JPY traded modestly flat above 109.50. The Aussie was pressured to near 0.6860 region on dovish RBA’s December meeting’s minutes while the Kiwi benefited from a lift in New Zealand’s Business Confidence.

Among related markets, Asian stocks tracked the Wall Street rally while Treasury yields dropped over 1%. Gold kept its recent range around $ 1475 while both crude benchmarks traded little changed near three-month tops ahead of API weekly Crude Stocks data.

Cryptocurrencies consolidated the overnight slump, with Bitcoin licking its wounds sub-$ 6,900.

Source: fxstreet

Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, December 17:

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