UNIQUE FOREX NEWS FROM A VERY UNIQUE FOREX BROKER CTRADER | FIX API | PAMM | CUSTOM LIQUIDITY | MT4

USEFUL MUSINGS

brought to you by your favorite forex broker | FXPIG™

Trying to figure out what to trade? Check out Market Analysis for a selection of financial forecasts from around the web or Mr. Markets for a unique perspective on the financial world from the PIG that knows it all. Looking for the latest PIG News and Promos? Check out the Company News section to see what’s new and exciting here at FXPIG™. Maybe you just want to read something fun? A quick laugh about how ridiculous all this ridiculousness can really be? For a quick fix trot on over to Obsessed.

GBP Volatile

Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_Brexit_GBP-volatile_Berxit-vote

Earlier in the session, sterling tapped 2-month highs

The British pound bounced around Tuesday, briefly pushing to pushing to levels not seen since mid-November, hours ahead of a crucial vote on an exit plan for the U.K. to leave the European Union.

Giving up most of an earlier lead, sterling GBPUSD, -0.0855% last bought $1.2874, slightly higher than $1.2866 late Monday, but has tapped a session high so far of $1.2917, putting it at levels not seen since mid November. The pound saw similar highs in Monday’s session, but retraced those gains as Tory whip Gareth Johnson resigned as U.S. trading hours began.

The pound remained firm against the euro EURGBP, -0.1683% with the shared currency buying £0.8901, down 0.2% on the session, according to FactSet data.

Most observers believe U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May will see her Brexit deal defeated in Parliament Tuesday evening, with a vote expected to take place around 10:30 p.m. U.K. time. Sterling’s direction, according to many strategists, will hinge on just how much the voting goes against her.

“Brussels have stood firm, refusing to offer anything other than warm words to Theresa May as she heads to the Parliamentary show down. With no further reassurances over the Irish backstop there has not been the change in tide that Theresa May needed,” said Jasper Lawler, head of research at London Capital Group, who expects a “knee jerk sell off in the pound until the next steps or Plan B are given.”

The so-called backstop governs the treatment of the border between Northern Ireland, which is part of the U.K., and EU member state Ireland following Brexit. Hard-line Brexiteers worry it will keep a back door open to the EU. May, who has been adamant that the backstop is just a short-term solution to deal with the border issue, has gained public support for her stance from European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, though still without providing a set timeline.

As for a Plan B, Lawler said that it will probably mean renegotiations and extension of Article 50, or an extension to its March 29 date for leaving the EU. That date is based on the two-year breakup period that started when May gave official notice the U.K. would leave the union.

Tuesday’s vote was initially scheduled for December but was delayed as May expected to be defeated. Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn meanwhile said last week that the handling of Brexit demanded fresh elections.

Elsewhere, the ICE U.S. Dollar Index was flat at 95.691, while the dollar USDJPY, +0.44%  was moving higher against the Japanese yen at ¥108.54 from ¥108.15 late Monday.

Source: marketwatch.com

The British pound bounced around Tuesday, briefly pushing to pushing to levels not seen since mid-November, hours ahead of a crucial vote on an exit plan for the U.K. to leave the European Union...

READ MORE

Forex Trading Wisdom

Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_Forex-Trading-wisdom_Forex-Trading-Quotes_Perfection

...Perfection is not attainable, but if we chase perfection we can catch excellence...

-PIG Insider

READ MORE

PAMMs Daily Update

Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_PAMMS_MANAGED_ACCOUNTS_PROFIT_14.01.2019

Find out more about our Managed PAMM Accounts here.

READ MORE

PAMMs Weekly Update

Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_PAMMS_MANAGED_ACCOUNTS_PROFIT_14.01.2019

Find out more about our Managed PAMM Accounts here.

READ MORE

FOREX Tech Targets

Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_Tech-analysis_Tech-Targets_Bulls-and-bears-14.01.2019

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, 1.1485): EUR strength has scope to test the major 1.1620 level.

While the ‘key support’ indicated at 1.1440 is still intact (low of 1.1455 last Friday), the weak daily closing in NY (1.1468, -0.26%) suggests that our expectation for EUR to test the major 1.1620 resistance level is likely wrong. However, we would hold on to the view for now even though a breach of the 1.1440 support would not be surprising (see 24-hour view above). In order to revive the current flagging momentum, EUR has to move and stay above 1.1520 within these 1 to 2 days. Looking ahead, a move below 1.1440 would indicate that EUR is still caught within a broad sideway trading range and is not ready to advance just yet.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, spot at 1.2795): Scope for recovery in GBP to extend to 1.2950.

We have the same view since last Monday (07 Jan, spot at 1.2725) that while there is a slight upward bias, “any GBP strength is viewed as part of a broad 1.2600/1.2850 range”. After trading sideways for several days, GBP took out 1.2850 last Friday and hit 1.2866 before ending the day on a firm note at 1.2838 (+0.66%). Despite the relatively positive price action, we are not convinced that the current GBP strength can be sustained. That said, there is scope for the recovery to extend to 1.2950. Only a clear break above 1.2950 would suggest that GBP is ready for a sustained up-move. In the meanwhile, GBP is expected to stay underpinned in the coming days until a break of the ‘key support’ at 1.2750.

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 13 Sep 18, spot at 0.7170): Recovery in AUD has room to extend to 0.7270.

While we noted in recent updates that the “outlook for AUD is slightly positive”, the ease of which AUD took out 0.7205 and the subsequent rise to 0.7235 last Friday came as a surprise. The price action suggests the recovery in AUD has room to extend further but at this stage, the prospect for a clear and sustained break above 0.7270 is not high. All in, we expected AUD to stay underpinned as long as 0.7120 is intact (level was at 0.7055 previously). From a shorter-term perspective, overbought conditions could lead to a few days of consolidation first before a move to 0.7270 can be expected.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 07 Dec 18, 0.6880): NZD to consolidate at these higher levels.

We have held the same view since last Monday (07 Jan, spot at 0.6735) wherein the “strong recovery in NZD has scope to extend higher” but “the prospect for a sustained move above 0.6830 is not high”. NZD touched 0.6843 last Friday before ending the day on a strong note (NY close of 0.6837, +0.82%). While the underlying tone has improved, we are still of the view that the prospect for a sustained move above 0.6830 is not high. Only an unlikely NY closing above 0.6850 would indicate that NZD is ready to challenge the major 0.6900 level. Meanwhile, NZD could consolidate and trade sideways at these higher levels for several days

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 09 Oct 18, 113.10): USD is expected to trade sideways for now.

USD traded within a tight range last Friday and the price action offers no fresh clues. In other words, there is no change to our view and we continue to expect USD to trade sideways for now, likely between 107.00 and 109.00.

Source: efxdata.com

While the ‘key support’ indicated at 1.1440 is still intact (low of 1.1455 last Friday), the weak daily closing in NY (1.1468, -0.26%) suggests that our expectation for EUR to test the major 1.1620 resistance level is likely wrong. However...

READ MORE

FOREX Week Ahead

Forex_Week_Ahead_FED_Brexit_FXPIG

The US dollar continues to weaken in 2019, this week’s decline was supported by the Fed’s Minutes and a busy week of FOMC talk that cemented views that the Fed can wait on the next interest rate hike.  The narrative now shifts from central bank focus to Brexit and earning seasons.  Prime Minister May’s Brexit deal is expected to be voted down in Parliament on Tuesday.  There is no strong consensus as to what is next for Brexit, but after Tuesday, we will learn a lot more.  The other key driver for the next big move in risk appetite could come the beginning of a very long earning season.   We have seen many technology and consumer discretionary companies warn on their outlooks already.

  • May expected to lose Parliament Brexit Vote on Tuesday, January 15th
  • Earning Season kicks off
  • G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting, January 16-18th

Cable remains firm ahead of Brexit Vote

Looking at cable, some might find it hard to believe that the end could be near for PM May.  She is widely expected to lose the Parliament vote on Tuesday and many are expecting the exit day or March 29th to be postponed, despite her office refuting any possibility of that happening.  After losing the Tuesday vote, there are 5 scenarios that could occur.  The scariest scenario for the UK is if nothing else happens and we see a no-deal Brexit.  Cable could fall anywhere from 5 to 10 percent and while it is the least likely result, it is still possible and should not be ruled out.  If she loses the vote by a close margin, she could renegotiate with the EU, but she will have only few days to try to come up with a Plan B and get EU concessions.  A general election is another potential scenario, but that would require May getting two-thirds of MPs supporting the call.  A vote of no confidence has a good chance of occurring as Labour has been very clear in stating they will call a formal vote of no confidence in the government following May’s defeat.  If the government loses the vote, we may not see a clear alternative choice and we could see a general election.  Another referendum could be a fifth scenario, albeit a longshot, that would require an extension of Article 50, this however is unlikely to occur before the March 29th deadline.

Oil winning streak snapped on profit taking

Oil had its best week in two years on a soft dollar and as the OPEC + production cuts are being implemented.  Friday’s round of profit taking saw West Texas Intermediate crude snap the longest streak of consecutive session gains in nine years.  This week’s rally took oil out of bear market territory and the backdrop of a patient Fed and progressive trade talks among the US and China have been very supportive for oil markets. 

Powell seals dovish stance

Fed Chair Powell’s latest interview on Thursday was a reiteration of the Minutes of the December 19thmeeting, noting that policymakers regard the economic outlook as solid, despite intensifying downside risks.  The Fed is clearly going to be patient on the next hike and will wait for further clarity on risks to global growth and the affect to the US economy.  For the US, rebounds are expected in New Home Sales, Empire Manufacturing, factory orders, housing starts and the Philly Fed Business Outlook, while declines are expected with the PPI Final Demand, Building Permits, University of Michigan Sentiment, and Industrial Production.  Softer data prints could further support the Fed’s dovish bias.

Earning Season kickoffs 

Two reasons stock markets have been roaring higher are from reassurances that the Fed is in a place where it can be patient and flexible and secondly, optimism from mid-level trade talks between the US and China.  Investor appetite for the next major move in stocks is likely to take a queue from the beginning of earning season.  Citigroup kicks the season off on Monday.  Tuesday we will see results from Delta, United Continental Holdings, and JP Morgan.  Goldman Sachs and Bank of America report on Wednesday.  Thursday we will hear from Netflix and several other financial companies. Schlumberger and Kansas City Southern report on Friday.

The government shutdown could also start having a greater impact on economic data.  A prolonged shutdown could end the longest streak of continuous job growth, which currently stands at 99 months.

The G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting will take place between January 16th and 18th in Tokyo.  This is not to be confused with the major G20 Osaka Summit that will take place at the end of June.  The first day will focus more on technological innovation and development.  Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda will deliver a key speech on the second day, which focuses on monetary policy and financial system during demographic changes.  The third day is meetings amongst the governors and ministers.

Source: marketpulse.com

The US dollar continues to weaken in 2019, this week’s decline was supported by the Fed’s Minutes and a busy week of FOMC talk that cemented views that the Fed can wait on the next interest rate hike. The narrative now shifts from central bank focus to Brexit and earning seasons...

READ MORE

Forex Trading Wisdom

Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_Forex-Trading-wisdom_Forex-Trading-Quotes_Investing-in-time

...The rich invest in time, the poor invest in money...

-PIG Insider

READ MORE

USD/JPY In The Cross Hairs

Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_JPY_FED_Over-Valued

The increasing chances of a pause in Fed interest rate increases, underscored by Chairman Powell's latest comments, mean the dollar will get its comeuppance for last year's broad rally, and nowhere will that be more apparent than against the yen.

In historical terms, the dollar is currently the most over-valued major reserve currency, on a long-term real effective exchange rate (REER) basis.
By the same measure, the yen is the most undervalued in that group.

Also, the Fed's campaign of rate hikes through December 2018 took the divergence in monetary policy between the Fed and the Bank of Japan to extremes.
However, even with the support that provided the dollar, USD/JPY lost ground for the third consecutive year in 2018 as it surrendered more of the recovery it started in 2011.

Depriving the dollar of the fuel of continuing hikes -- with the possibility of cuts even -- leaves the dollar vulnerable to reentering the multi-decade downtrend against the yen that was interrupted by the 2011 Tohoku quake-related disasters and the extreme easing response of Abenomics that included vast deficit spending financed by BOJ quantitative easing and negative rates.

If losses in the U.S. currency begin in earnest, there is a risk that the yen could strengthen to less than 100 per dollar this year or next.

PRECARIOUS DOLLAR

The fact that the dollar is so over-valued, based on REER, increases the potential damage from the apparent shift by the Fed and the reversal of policy divergence.

The Fed has been tightening policy since December 2015, including more recent quantitative tightening.
Despite substantial easing in the post-crisis era, the Fed never took its main policy rate below zero.
The BOJ did, however, in February 2016 -- which increased divergence and, now, the potential for convergence.

The Fed's current 2.5 percent Fed funds rate gives it some room to cut rates if the need arises, to the potential detriment of the dollar.

By contrast, the BOJ's stagnant -10bp policy rate and yield curve control program that centers 10-year JGB yields around zero is already adding to the woes of Japanese banks and forcing Japan's aging investor class to take on greater risk at a time when capital preservation ought to be emphasized, particularly given Japan's 253 percent government debt-to-GDP ratio as of 2017's accounting.

ROOM TO MANEUVER

The BOJ's balance sheet is now bigger than Japan's GDP and the JGB market is swamped by the BOJ's ownership, leaving little room for rapid balance sheet expansion. In short, the BOJ can't get much easier than it is now, but the Fed can -- and the dollar will pay the price.

Despite years of rising Treasury-JGB rate spreads, USD/JPY lost value each of the past three years and tumbled to its lowest since 2016 to start this year.
Over-reliance on the yen as a funding currency and heavy speculative yen short positioning has left USD/JPY vulnerable during global derisking phases such as we've seen since October.

This month's dive to 104.10 came as market expectations shifted from pricing more Fed rate hikes in 2019 to a possible rate cut, which would likely only happen if the economy were to slow dramatically or contract. Markets have since priced out a rate cut this year, but they still foresee 15bp of easing in 2020.

To be sure, a pause in Fed rate hikes or balance sheet reduction is not a foregone conclusion, though Chairman Powell and other policy makers have hinted that both are possible if conditions dictate.
Still, it is highly unlikely that the Fed will repeat the quarterly rate hike pace of 2018.

Assuming the U.S. economy simply slows rather than contracts this year and next as fiscal stimulus wanes, labor constraints and costs limit output and trim profits and the fallout from Brexit and trade deals proves manageable, the Fed would still probably be unlikely to do more than one more rate hike in 2019.

With the 2-10 year Treasury yield curve trading below 25bp since late November, there is a much greater risk of curve inversion with anything more than one more 25bp rate hike.

Another hike would put the Fed funds rate at 2.75 percent, slightly above current 10-year Treasury yields.
Historically it is several quarters between curve inversions and recessions, but the inversion itself is normally a clear beginning of the end of a tightening cycle.

In this case, the Fed tightening cycle has failed to provide Japanese policy makers with the higher USD/JPY their export-dependent economy needs.
In the absence of Fed tightening, or worse yet, an about-face to easing, the highly historically over-valued USD/JPY will be vulnerable to losing its triple-digit status, as it did during and after the global financial crisis until late 2013 and again after the 2016 Brexit vote.

Source: efxdata.com

The increasing chances of a pause in Fed interest rate increases, underscored by Chairman Powell's latest comments, mean the dollar will get its comeuppance for last year's broad rally, and nowhere will that be more apparent than against the yen...

READ MORE

PAMMs Daily Update

Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_PAMMS_MANAGED_ACCOUNTS_PROFIT_10.01.2019

Find out more about our Managed PAMM Accounts here.

READ MORE

Forex Trading Wisdom

Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_Forex-Trading-wisdom_Forex-Trading-Quotes_The Love

...Do what you love and the money will follow...

-PIG Insider

READ MORE

FOMC: Caution in mind

Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_FOMC_Caution

According to analysts at Rabobank, the minutes of the December 18-19 meeting clearly depicted the cautious tone of Fed speakers since the December meeting and the projection of two hikes in 2019 was made with this caution in mind.

Key Quotes

“The recent speeches do not reflect a change of course that took place after the FOMC meeting.”

“The FOMC is trying to acknowledge the concerns about the economic outlook in the markets and the business sector, but still the Committee thinks those concerns are about downside risks. In this sense, there is still some distance between the Fed and the markets. Therefore, we think that a final rate hike in March is still likely, before downside risks become the Fed’s baseline.”

“We think that the FOMC will take a pause after a final hike in March leads to an inversion of the yield curve. However, history teaches us that this is an early warning signal for a recession 12-18 months later.”

Source: fxstreet.com

According to analysts at Rabobank, the minutes of the December 18-19 meeting clearly depicted the cautious tone of Fed speakers since the December meeting and the projection of two hikes in 2019 was made with this caution in mind...

READ MORE

PAMMs Daily Update

 Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_PAMMS_MANAGED_ACCOUNTS_PROFIT_09.01.2019

Find out more about our Managed PAMM Accounts here.

READ MORE

Forex Trading Wisdom:

Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_Forex-Trading-wisdom_Forex-Trading-Quotes

...After a certain point, money is meaningless. It ceases to be the goal...

-PIG Insider

READ MORE

FOREX Tech Targets

Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_Tech-analysis_Tech-Targets_Bulls-and-bears-09.01.2019

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, 1.1485): EUR has moved into a consolidation phase.

We highlighted yesterday that “we have doubts about the sustainability of EUR strength” and added, “we would adopt a more positive view on EUR if it closes above 1.1500 in NY”. The major 1.1500 level remains unthreatened as EUR eased off from a high of 1.1485. In other words, there is no change to the narrative wherein EUR is “trading in a consolidation phase”. That said, the underlying tone has improved and the major 1.1500 level would likely yield eventually. However, lackluster momentum indicators coupled with solid resistance at 1.1550 (there is another one at 1.1620) suggest that any EUR strength would likely be gradual and tentative. On the downside, support is at 1.1410 followed by 1.1350.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, spot at 1.2795): GBP is expected to trade in a broad range.

GBP touched a high of 1.2797 yesterday before easing off quickly. The high was just below the late-Dec peak of 1.2814. The price action reinforces our view that GBP is trading “in a broad range” for now. As highlighted in recent updates, there is a slight upward bias but any GBP strength is viewed as part of a 1.2600/1.2850 range. Looking further ahead, a clear break above 1.2850 would suggest GBP is ready to stage a sustained recovery in the weeks ahead.

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 13 Sep 18, spot at 0.7170): Outlook for AUD is slightly positive; a sustained move above 0.7205 seems unlikely.

AUD traded in a relatively narrow range yesterday and there is no change to our view. As highlighted on Monday (07 Jan), the outlook for AUD is slightly positive but while further gain is not ruled out, a sustained move above the next major resistance at 0.7205 seems unlikely (at least for the next couple of weeks). On the downside, the strong support level has moved higher to 0.7055 from 0.6995.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 07 Dec 18, 0.6880): Strong recovery in NZD has scope to extend higher.

After closing higher for 3 consecutive days, NZD retreated and closed lower by -0.48% in NY (closed at 0.6720). Despite the pull-back, the underlying tone remains supportive and we continue to see chance for the strong recovery (from the 0.6591 low) to extend higher. At this stage, the prospect for a sustained move above 0.6830 is not high. The two main support levels have moved higher to 0.6675 and 0.6700 (from 0.6645 and 0.6675 previously)

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 09 Oct 18, 113.10): USD is expected to trade sideways for now.

USD touched a post ‘flash crash’ high of 109.08 before easing off quickly. As highlighted in recent updates, despite the relatively positive price action, we still believe it is too soon to expect the start of a sustained USD rebound. From here, we continue to expect USD to trade sideways even though the improved underlying tone suggests that it would likely test the top of the expected 107.40/109.50 sidewaytrading range first (narrowed from 107.00/109.50 previously).

Source: efxdata.com

We highlighted yesterday that “we have doubts about the sustainability of EUR strength” and added, “we would adopt a more positive view on EUR if it closes above 1.1500 in NY”. The major 1.1500 level remains unthreatened as EUR eased off from a high of 1.1485. In other words, there is ...

READ MORE

PAMMs Daily Update

 Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_PAMMS_MANAGED_ACCOUNTS_PROFIT_09.01.2019

Find out more about our Managed PAMM Accounts here.

READ MORE

Forex Trading Wisdom

Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_Forex-Trading-wisdom_Forex-Trading-Quotes

...Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold put out a bucket not a thimble...

-PIG Insider

READ MORE

FOREX Tech Targets

Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_Tech-analysis_Tech-Targets_Bulls-and-bears-08.01.2019

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, 1.1485): EUR has moved into a consolidation phase.

Despite the relatively strong advance of +0.71% yesterday (NY close of 1.1474), we have doubts about the sustainability of EUR strength. However, the current level of 1.1475 is not far from the top of our expected 1.1320/1.1500 consolidation range and a break of 1.1500 would not be surprising. We would adopt a more positive view on EUR if it can close above 1.1500 in NY but looking ahead, there are 2 major resistance levels sitting at 1.1550 followed by the critical level of 1.1620. At this stage, the prospect for a test of these major levels Is not high. In the meanwhile, we would continue to view the current price action as part of a consolidation phase.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, spot at 1.2795): GBP is expected to trade in a broad range.

There is not much to add to yesterday’s (07 Jan, spot at 1.2725) update. As highlighted, indicators are showing mixed signals and the current movement is viewed as part of a broad consolidation. That said, there is a slight upward bias even though at this stage, any GBP strength is viewed as part of a broad 1.2600/1.2850 range. Looking further ahead, a clear break above 1.2850 would suggest GBP is ready to stage a sustained recovery in the weeks ahead.

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 13 Sep 18, spot at 0.7170): Outlook for AUD is slightly positive; a sustained move above 0.7205 seems unlikely.

As highlighted yesterday, the outlook for AUD is slightly positive but while further gain is not ruled out, a sustained move above the next major resistance at 0.7205 seems unlikely (at least for the next couple of weeks). On the downside, last Friday’s low near 0.6995 is acting a solid support now. On a shorter-term basis, 0.7055 is already a strong level.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 07 Dec 18, 0.6880): Strong recovery in NZD has scope to extend higher. No change in view.

The break of the strong 0.6720 resistance last Friday (high of 0.6751) indicates that NZD has found short-term bottom at 0.6591 last Wednesday. The strong recovery has scope to extend further but at this stage, a sustained move above 0.6830 seems unlikely. Support is at 0.6675 but the stronger level is at 0.6645.

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 09 Oct 18, 113.10): USD is expected to trade sideways for now.

USD extended its ‘flash crash’ recovery as it closed higher for the second straight day (closed at 108.70, +0.16%). Despite the relatively positive price action, we still believe it is too soon to expect the start of a sustained USD rebound. From here, we continue to expect USD to trade sideways even though the improved underlying tone suggests that it would likely test the top of the expected 107.00/109.50 sideway-trading range first.

Source:efxdata.com

Despite the relatively strong advance of +0.71% yesterday (NY close of 1.1474), we have doubts about the sustainability of EUR strength. However, the current level of 1.1475 is not far from the top of our expected 1.1320/1.1500 consolidation range and a break of 1.1500 would not be surprising...

READ MORE

PAMMs Daily Update

Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_PAMMS_MANAGED_ACCOUNTS_PROFIT_07.01.2019

Find out more about our Managed PAMM Accounts here

READ MORE

Forex Week Ahead

Forex_Market_Rise_after_Strong_FXPIG

The US dollar had a tough first week of 2019. The greenback is lower against most major pairs as market optimism of two rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve have virtually evaporated. Mixed economic indicators and a neutral to dovish Fed Chair Powell put downward pressure on the USD. Inflation data will be released on Friday, January 11 with investors also keeping an eye on trade negotiations improving between China and the US. The Bank of Canada (BoC) will publish its rate statement on Wednesday, January 9. The central bank is expected to keep rates unchanged amid global growth uncertainty, but is still expected to hike once in the first quarter of 2019 if Canadian inflationary pressures keep up.

  • Bank of Canada (BoC) to hold rates at 1.75%
  • Fed Minutes to be released on Wednesday, January 9
  • US inflation data expected flat on Friday, January 11

Loonie Reaches 3 Week High on Falling USD

The USD/CAD lost 1.79 percent in the last five trading days. The pair is trading at 1.3393 after the release of the U.S. non farm payrolls (NFP) showed a solid 312,000 jobs gain and a better than expected 0.4 percent growth in wages. Traders awaited for Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech in Atlanta which stopped the momentum of the US dollar. In December market estimates had 2 to 3 rate hikes in 2019, but after a stock market sell off that continued into early January the expectations changed radically where even a rate cut would not be out of the question. Powell’s words on Friday once again stuck to the central bank’s data dependency, but the non committal language was received as a strong signal that the Fed is ready to pause its monetary policy tightening for the time being.

Canadian jobs data continues to impress with a 9,300 new positions added in December. Following a massive 94,100 gain in November the estimates were lower as some headwinds were beginning to affect the economy. The BoC is expected to hold rates at 1.75 percent as the trade dispute between the US and China continues. Governor Poloz has said that he doesn’t expect a recession in 2019, but lower wage growth and global geopolitics could have the BoC emulate the Fed and pause its tightening of monetary policy.

Stock markets were encouraged by US indicators pointing to a positive growth US picture, and the way Powell delivered his remarks kept the US dollar from rising. Emerging markets and other riskier assets benefited with Wall Street breathing a sigh of relief after a tough start to the year.

Oil Rises Boosted by US Jobs and Energy Production Slowdown

Oil prices rose 2.60 percent on Friday after concerns around global growth diminished after a strong US jobs report and news out of China regarding US-China negotiations combined with the first signs Saudi Arabia is reducing its crude production. Higher energy demand expectations rose as US negotiators will meet with their Chinese counterparts as the Saudis begin cutting their production as per the agreement with major suppliers in an effort to stabilize crude prices.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other major producers agreed to cut supply by 1.2 million last year with Saudi Arabia taking the lead with early cuts, with others expected to join in January. If the US and China can find a middle ground to stop tariff escalation this week as OPEC compliance starts rolling in the outlook for oil prices will improve after a difficult 2018 and the fate of the organization itself will be on more solid ground after the fall in energy prices threatened to break the group apart.

Gold Slows Down as Risk Factors Subside

Gold lost 0.66 percent on Friday but given the volatility of the trading week will end up in the black for the first week of 2019. With US representatives on their way to China to restart trade talks and US jobs once again boosting global growth expectations the yellow metal was sold as investors looked for riskier assets.

Fed Chair Powells words reassured markets as he will not step down despite pressure from the Trump administration. The neutral comments on monetary policy, but the optimism on the economy boosted markets. The release of the minutes form the Fed’s December meeting where the central bank hiked interest rates by 25 basis points could reignite the forecasts of 2 rate hikes this year, despite the turbulence felt in the last four weeks.

Source: marketpulse.com

The US dollar had a tough first week of 2019. The greenback is lower against most major pairs as market optimism of two rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve have virtually evaporated. Mixed economic indicators and a neutral to dovish Fed Chair Powell put...

READ MORE

PAMMs Daily Update

Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_PAMMS_MANAGED_ACCOUNTS_PROFIT_03.01.2019

Find out more about our Managed PAMM Accounts here.

READ MORE

Forex Trading Wisdom

Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_Forex-Trading-wisdom_Forex-Trading-Quotes

...Accepting losses is the most important single investment device to insure safety of capital...

-PIG Insider

READ MORE

Forex Tech Targets

Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_Tech-analysis_Tech-Targets_Bulls-and-bears-03.01.2019

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, 1.1485): Scope for EUR to crack the major 1.1265 level.

We highlighted yesterday EUR “may struggle to maintain a toehold above 1.1500” but the sharp and rapid drop from a high of 1.1497 came as a surprise. The sudden turnaround has shifted the pressure quickly to the downside. From here, we see scope for EUR to crack the major 1.1265 level (this level was tested in late-Nov and mid-Dec but held both times). For now, the odds for a break of the solid 1.1200 support seem unlikely (note that the 2018 low is at 1.1213). Only a move above 1.1430 (‘key resistance’) would indicate that the downward pressure has eased

GBP/USD:  Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, spot at 1.2795): GBP could test the major 1.2400 support first.

Our view that the “recovery phase in GBP has scope to strengthen to 1.2850” (see update from yesterday, 02 Jan, spot at 1.2745) was proven wrong quickly as GBP sliced through the 1.2660 ‘key support’ after NY close and crashed to a low of 1.2409. Despite the subsequent sharp swing higher from the low, the underlying tone has weakened considerably. From here, we see chance for GBP to test the major 1.2400 first below the current weakness may stabilize. At this stage, the prospect for a sustained break below 1.2400 is not high. On the upside, only a move above 1.2680 would suggest the current weak phase has stabilized.

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 13 Sep 18, spot at 0.7170): AUD could continue to trade in a choppy manner within a broad range.

AUD suffered a ‘flash crash’ after NY close (close of 0.6985) as it nose-dived to a 10-year low of 0.6715 before staging an equally remarkable bounce to the current level of 0.6915. The price action after a ‘flash crash’ could be extremely erratic as market participants adjust to the elevated volatility. For now, the probability for a sustained decline below 0.6715 is not high but on the other hand, any recovery is expected to face solid resistance at yesterday’s top near 0.7055. In other words, AUD could continue to trade in a choppy manner between 0.6715 and 0.7055 for the next couple of weeks.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 07 Dec 18, 0.6880): Room for NZD to test 0.6550.

While NZD dropped after NY close (close of 0.6654), the magnitude of the decline was much than its ‘antipodean cousin’. However, downward momentum has picked up and from here, we see room for NZD to test the 0.6550 level. Further weakness below this level is not ruled out but at this stage, a drop to the next support at 0.6500 seems unlikely. All in, we expect NZD to stay under pressure until it can reclaim 0.6720.

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 09 Oct 18, 113.10): USD could continue to trade in a volatile manner.

While we highlighted yesterday “USD is still under pressure and could test 109.00”, the ease of which it took out this level (overnight low of 108.70) and the subsequent ‘flash crash’ after NY close came as a big surprise. The price action after a flash crash is expected to remain volatile and the support and resistance levels are far apart. We expect it could take a while before the current volatility would settle down. In the meanwhile, a 104.50/109.50 range should be enough to contain the price action in USD.

Source:efxdata.com

We highlighted yesterday EUR “may struggle to maintain a toehold above 1.1500” but the sharp and rapid drop from a high of 1.1497 came as a surprise. The sudden turnaround has shifted the pressure quickly to the downside...

READ MORE

PAMMs Daily Update

Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_PAMMS_MANAGED_ACCOUNTS_PROFIT_02.01.2019

Find out more about our Managed PAMM Accounts here.

READ MORE

USD/JPY recovers large part

Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_USDJPY_recovers
  • Wall Street turns positive on the day in the NA session.
  • US Dollar Index inches closer to the 97 mark.
  • US Pres. Trump says stocks will go up once trade deals are finalised.

The USD/JPY pair dipped below the 109 mark for the first time in more than 7 months on Wednesday during the European trading hours but was able to retrace the majority of this drop in the second half of the day supported by improved market sentiment. As of writing, the pair was trading at 109.45, down 0.25% on a daily basis.

Earlier today, concerns over a global economic slowdown caused markets to start the new year in a negative mood. Major Asian and European equity indexes recorded losses to confirm the risk-off theme and allowed the JPY to gather strength as a safer alternative. However, with Wall Street gaining traction and moving into the positive territory following a daily start in the red, the risk appetite was felt, once again, in the markets.

Easing concerns over the U.S. - China trade conflict following President Trump's comments today fueled the U.S. stocks late rise in the session and the S&P 500 was last up 0.27% on the day while the Nasdaq Composite was gaining 0.8%.

Additionally, the decisive climb witnessed in the US Dollar Index reflected a broadly stronger greenback and provided an additional boost to the pair. As of writing, the DXY was up 0.9% on the day, looking to conquer the 97 handle for the first time since the Christmas break.

Source: fxstreet.com

The USD/JPY pair dipped below the 109 mark for the first time in more than 7 months on Wednesday during the European trading hours but was able to retrace the majority of this drop in the second half of the day supported by improved ...

READ MORE

Forex Trading Wisdom

Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_Forex-Trading-wisdom_Forex-Trading-Quotes_The-Impossible

...In trading the impossible happens about twice a year...

-PIG Insider

READ MORE

FOREX Tech Targets

Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_Tech-analysis_Tech-Targets_Bulls-and-bears-02.01.2019

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, 1.1485): Further up-move seems likely but EUR may struggle to maintain a toehold above 1.1500.

While EUR traded within a relatively narrow 179 pips since late November (between 1.1266 and 1.1485), it closed on a firm note the past couple of trading days. We expect further up-move in the coming weeks even though lackluster upward momentum suggests EUR could struggle to maintain a toehold above the major 1.1500 resistance. Support is at 1.1420 but only a move below 1.1390 would indicate that the current mild upward pressure has eased.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, spot at 1.2795): The recovery phase in GBP has scope to strengthen to 1.2850.

After dropping to a low of 1.2477 in early-December, GBP rebounded strongly and ended the month largely unchanged from November (31 Dec close of 1.2753, -0.03% lower than Nov). The price action is viewed as part of an on-going recovery phase and there is scope for GBP to strengthen further to 1.2850. At this stage, a sustained break above this level is not expected. All in, only a move below the 1.2660 ‘key support’ would indicate the current upward pressure in GBP has eased.

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 13 Sep 18, spot at 0.7170): AUD is in a consolidation phase and is expected to trade sideways.

AUD dropped sharply in the last 2 weeks of last year and hit a low of 0.7017. However, the rapid decline appears to have stabilized and further sustained down-move is not expected. That said, a dip below the ‘round-number’ support of 0.7000 is not ruled but at this stage, any weakness is viewed as part of a 0.6975/0.7110 consolidation phase.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 07 Dec 18, 0.6880): NZD is trading in a consolidation phase.

After dropping sharply in the last two weeks of December, the decline in NZD appears to have stabilized. The current movement is viewed as part of a consolidation phase. In other words, NZD is expected to trade sideways from here, likely within a 0.6670/0.6780 range.

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 09 Oct 18, 113.10): USD is still under pressure and could test 109.00.

The sharp drop in USD that started in mid-December appears to be running too fast, too soon. However, the weakness is not showing sign of stabilizing and the immediate pressure is still on the downside. Only a move above 110.60 would indicate that the current weakness has stabilized. Until then, we expect USD to stay under pressure and a test of the major 109.00 support would not be surprising.

Source: efxdata.com

While EUR traded within a relatively narrow 179 pips since late November (between 1.1266 and 1.1485), it closed on a firm note the past couple of trading days. We expect further up-move in the coming weeks even though lackluster upward momentum suggests EUR could struggle to ...

READ MORE

Happy and Prosperous New Year

Happy_New_PIG_Year

Did you know that 2019 is the Year of the PIG according the Chinese Zodiac?

And according to it:

"...PIGs are diligent, compassionate, and generous...
Not to mention transparent, smart and never refuse to give others a hand.

PIGs detest trickery and no matter how difficult the problems PIGs encounter, they can handle things properly and carefully. They have a great sense of responsibility to finish what they are engaged in..."

And who would know better then the ancient Chinese wise-men?

So, here, from one PIG to another, we would like to wish YOU and YOUR loved ones:

HAPPY, BLESSED and PROSPEROUS NEW (PIG)YEAR!!!


Did you know that 2019 is the Year of the PIG according the Chinese Zodiac?

READ MORE

PAMMs Daily Update

Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_PAMMS_MANAGED_ACCOUNTS_PROFIT_2018

Find out more about our Managed PAMM Accounts here.

READ MORE

Forex Trading Wisdom

Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_Forex-Trading-wisdom_Forex-Trading-Quotes

...Trade What’s Happening…Not What You Think Is Gonna Happen...

-PIG Insider

READ MORE

FX Today

Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_Forex-Markets -thin

In forex today, markets have ground to a near-halt heading into the New Year's shutdown to round out the holidays, and although the latter half of this week could see an influx of fresh volumes into the broader markets, the fx marketspace remains tepid as investors take a step back and reassess their bets heading into 2019.

Major pairs remain firmly planted within recent ranges as Monday's action sees G10 currencies hobbled on paper-thin volumes; the EUR/USD pairing remains trapped near the high end of last week's range near 1.1450 and threatening to head lower to kick off 2019, while the Sterling-Dollar pairing continues to splash around just south of 1.2700, a key technical level that has seen the Cable restrained since Brexit proceedings seized up in early December. The USD/CAD pair continues to tick thinly into near-term highs near 1.2650 as slumping oil prices continue to pull the rug out from underneath the Candian Loonie, but anemic holiday markets are preventing any major market moves from unfolding.

In the Pacific-Asia sector, the Aussie is seeing some early-week pre-holiday bidding on reassurances that trade talks between the US and China are, in fact, progressing, but details remain thin and evidence of forward momentum remains trapped behind vague headlines and frequent trade-centric tweets from US President Donald Trump. The USD/JPY remains trapped near 110.50 as the Greenback holds near last week's low points, and a fresh round of capital to come later in the week could see a rebound for the pair, depending on how investors plan to grapple with US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell's off-the-cuff approach to handling FOMC statements through 2019.

Source: fxstreet.com

In forex today, markets have ground to a near-halt heading into the New Year's shutdown to round out the holidays, and although the latter half of this week could see an influx of fresh volumes into the broader markets, the fx marketspace remains tepid as investors take a...

READ MORE

Forex Ahead

FOREX_TRADING_FX_TRADER_ FXPIG_Dollar-2019

Dollar bulls have wined and dined like kings and queens in 2018.  The greenback appreciated the most against the emerging market currencies.  The earlier part of the year saw the focus on rising US interest rates and political stories lead the way lower for EM.  Trade wars also contributed to the risk-off narrative and will likely be a key area of focus in Q1.

  • Emerging Market Currencies will try to outperform early in H1
  • Stocks ready to rally once trade spat resolved
  • Brexit clarity needed before cable traders return

Volatility was the story for Q4 as some of the major indexes fell over 20%.  The panic that hit the markets saw safe-haven currencies surge on market uncertainty regarding trade wars, Fed quantitative tightening (QT), a partial government shutdown in the US, and Brexit worries.  While the data in the US has been softer, many parts of the economy are still strong, such as record-low unemployment and near 3.0% GDP growth.  With many risk events in play for the first quarter, we could see Fed policy remain on hold until the latter part of the year.  If the Fed pauses interest rate increases and signals a goal on when QT will stabilize, we could see some headwinds for the US dollar in the first half of the year.

Will the Oil bottom hold?

Thin volumes supported the Christmas Eve oil collapse to $42.36 and everyone will closely watch to see if that level holds.  While most analysts expect oil to be higher by the end of 2019, the fundamental concerns on both the supply and demand side could see the meltdown continue.  In January, we may hear more talks of extending cuts from OPEC+, US offshore drilling companies may need to scale back operations if oil stays near current levels, and if we see a framework agreement on the trade spat between the US and China, we could see positive sentiment return to the battered commodity.

Brexit outcome nearing

We are well under 90 days until the Brexit deadline and no one wants to trade sterling because no one has a clue how Brexit will play out.  The expectations are still slightly for a soft Brexit, but money managers are not ready just yet to place their bets.  A hard exit is still a possibility and that is preventing most long-term bullish bets from just being placed.  PM May appears poised to lose the vote in Parliament on the week of January 14th.  After the vote, we could see Jeremy Corbyn deliver on his threat of a no confidence motion on the government, which could lead to a general election.  The House of Commons recess ends on January 7th, but we could see the MPs called back earlier.  The smart money remains on the sidelines as the scenarios on how this will evolve remain plentiful.  We should start to see some positioning after the Parliament vote.

Treasuries continue to advance

US Treasury yields continue to slide as the 10-year yield fell to the lowest level since February.  The 10-year and 2-year gap widened to 19.85 basis points alleviating concerns that the Fed’s tightening process would invert the yield curve.  All eyes will be on Fed Chair Powell’s January 4th interview at the annual meeting of the American Economic Association in Atlanta.  The market does not agree with the Fed’s dot plot and seeks clarity on quantitative tightening, so every event Powell attends will be closely watched for further dovish commitments.

Source: marketpulse.com

Dollar bulls have wined and dined like kings and queens in 2018. The greenback appreciated the most against the emerging market currencies. The earlier part of the year saw the focus on rising US interest rates and political stories lead the way...

READ MORE

Oil remains bid

Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_OIL

Oil prices climbed higher after the weekly DOE crude inventories fell by 46,000 barrels last week, the market consensus was for a decline of 2.5 million barrels.  The reason oil prices edged higher on a smaller draw, was because yesterday, the weekly API oil inventories rose by 6.9 million barrels, up from a build of 3.5 million in the prior month.

The weekly Baker Hughes US rig count rose from 1,080 to 1,083.  The US oil rig count also increased from 883 to 885.  The gas rig count also ticked higher from 197 to 198.

The Canadian dollar still remains near its 19-month lows against the greenback and has yet to show a significant recovery along with oil prices.

Price action on the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude daily chart shows key low of $42.36 is still holding and price is in the middle of this week’s trading range.  Volumes remain light and it is become less likely a major move will occur until the New Year.  The $40 level remains critical support for WTI and it could happen if we see another major wave of risk aversion.  To the upside, $48.00 could provide initial resistance.

Source: marketpulse.com

Oil prices climbed higher after the weekly DOE crude inventories fell by 46,000 barrels last week, the market consensus was for a decline of 2.5 million barrels. The reason oil prices edged ...

READ MORE

Forex Trading Wisdom

Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_Forex-Trading-wisdom_Forex-Trading-Quotes_win& loss

...Never let a win go to your head, or a loss to your heart...

-PIG Insider

READ MORE

EUR/USD eases from weekly tops

Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_Forex_EUR

 •  Persistent USD selling bias helped build on the overnight goodish up-move.

  •  Thin liquidity conditions holding traders from placing any aggressive bets.

  •  Traders now eye prelim German CPI/second-tier US data for fresh impetus.

The EUR/USD pair trimmed a part of its early gains to fresh weekly tops but has managed to hold with modest daily gains, around the 1.1450 region.

The pair built on previous session's strong up-move of around 100-pips and continued gaining positive traction for the second consecutive session amid the prevalent US Dollar selling bias.

The partial US government shutdown coupled with fears of a possible economic slowdown in the US kept exerting downward pressure on the greenback and pushed the pair to a fresh weekly high level of 1.1467.

The uptick, however, lacked strong conviction/follow-through as traders now seemed to keep positions rather light amid thin liquidity conditions ahead of the year-end holidays.

Moving ahead, today's release of the prelim German consumer inflation figures, followed by second-tier US economic data - Chicago PMI and pending home sales data, will now be looked upon for some fresh impetus.

Source:fxstreet.com

The EUR/USD pair trimmed a part of its early gains to fresh weekly tops but has managed to hold with modest daily gains, around the 1.1450 region...

READ MORE

Dollar slides

Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_Dollar_slides

The U.S. dollar weakened on Thursday, nearly erasing its Boxing Day gains, while haven currencies strengthened, amid a fresh retrenchment in risk appetite, a day after stock markets staged a historic burst higher.

U.S. stocks failed to follow through on their best percentage rise since 2009, highlighting volatility in assets perceived as risky in final trading days of 2018, despite an apparent moment of optimism.

“Trading volumes are thin, of course, and will not pick up until next week but the recent areas of concern for the markets — the U.S. government shutdown, which will delay some economic reports, and President Donald Trump’s criticism of the Federal Reserve leadership even as the tightening cycle may be reaching a peak — are unlikely to disappear quickly,” wrote Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret.

“That suggests choppy and uncertain trading will continue. Broader trade worries, Brexit and rising deficits in the US continue to lurk in the background, ready to fill the worry gap,” they said.

The ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY, -0.57%  pulled back again on Thursday, slipping 0.6% to 96.508.

The euro EURUSD, +0.8280% and traditional havens like the Japanese yen USDJPY, -0.72%  and Swiss franc USDCHF, -0.9842% were the best performers against the greenback, benefiting from the turn in risk sentiment from Wednesday.

The euro last bought $1.1440, up from 1.1353.

Versus the yen, the greenback dropped to ¥110.64, down 0.6%, while also sliding to 0.9883 franc, down 0.8%.

The Swedish krona USDSEK, -0.8987% however, was the strongest performer against the buck. The dollar dropped to a three-day low against the Scandinavian currency, last buying 8.9970 krona, down 1.1%.

Elsewhere, commodity-linked currencies like the Canadian dollar USDCAD, +0.5451%  were weaker as crude-oil futures CLG9, -2.96%  turned lower.

Source: marketwatch.com

The U.S. dollar weakened on Thursday, nearly erasing its Boxing Day gains, while haven currencies strengthened, amid a fresh retrenchment in risk appetite, a day after stock markets staged a historic burst higher...

READ MORE

Forex Trading Wisdom

Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_Forex-Trading-wisdom_Forex-Trading-Quotes_good_trading

...There is a huge difference between a good trade and good trading...

-PIG Insider

READ MORE

Fed projections

Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_FED_Projections

The Fed projections themselves are a problem as the fan chart of possible rate moves over the coming years has widened.

Key Quotes

“These projections were introduced by the previous Chair Yellen to give the market a sense of certainty that policy would stay accommodative for a long time.  They were intended to send a message to encourage animal spirits in the economy.”

“The Powell Fed seems to miss the point that it needs to urgently down-play the projections.  Powell has tried to do that with words, but the best way, perhaps the only sure way, was to demonstrate that they do not have to follow them.  And that meant not hiking in December was the by far the best policy option.”

“The Fed is still operating under the framework set by Yellen.  She was a thought leader and could set a policy framework to suit the conditions she faced. Conditions have changed, But the Fed is not yet displaying it can change.”

Source: fxstreet.com

These projections were introduced by the previous Chair Yellen to give the market a sense of certainty that policy would stay accommodative for a long time. They were intended to send a message to encourage animal spirits in the economy...

READ MORE

Forex Trading Wisdom

Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_Forex-Trading-wisdom_Forex-Trading-Quotes_Maerket_Pateince_transfer

...The Market is a devise for transferring money from the impatient to the patient...

-PIG Insider

READ MORE

Asia Markets Update

Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_Asia_Markets_tumbles

Japanese stocks plunged Tuesday and other Asian markets declined following heavy Wall Street losses triggered by President Donald Trump’s attack on the U.S. central bank.

The Nikkei 225 NIK, +0.89% fell by an unusually wide margin of 5%, hitting its lowest point since May 2017 with a close at 19,155.74. The index is now down just over 21% from highs reached in early October, which meets a widely accepted definition of a bear market. Loses were widespread, with all 33 Tokyo Stock Exchange sub-sectors posting losses. Fuji Electric 6504, +1.67%  dropped over 7%, SoftBank Group 9984, -1.36%   was off 7.6%, Fast Retailing 9983, -0.92%   fell over 4% and Toyota 7203, +1.10%   sank over 5%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index SHCOMP, -0.26%  pared losses to close down 0.9%, with the smaller-cap Shenzhen Composite 399106, -0.42%  faring the same. Taiwan’s benchmark index Y9999, -0.50% declined more than 1%.

Markets in Hong Kong, Australia and South Korea were closed for Christmas.

“The sell-off is triggered almost entirely by developments in the U.S. markets, rather than by negative factors unique to the domestic market,” Takashi Hiroki, chief strategist at Monex Securities in Tokyo, told CNBC.

Wall Street indexes fell more than 2% on Monday after Trump said on Twitter the Federal Reserve was the U.S. economy’s “only problem.” Efforts by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to calm investor fears only seemed to make matters worse.

U.S. stocks are track for their worst December since 1931 during the Great Depression.

The market has been roiled by concerns about a slowing global economy, the trade dispute with China and another interest rate increase by the Fed.

Trump’s Monday morning tweet heightened fears about the economy being destabilised by a president who wants control over the Fed. Its board members are nominated by the president, but they make decisions independently of the White House. The board’s chairman, Jerome Powell, was nominated by Trump last year.

“The only problem our economy has is the Fed,” the president said on Twitter. “They don’t have a feel for the Market, they don’t understand necessary Trade Wars or Strong Dollars or even Democrat Shutdowns over Borders. The Fed is like a powerful golfer who can’t score because he has no touch — he can’t putt!”

The S&P 500 index SPX, -2.71%   slid 2.7% to 2,351.10. The benchmark index is now down 19.8% from its peak on Sept. 20, close to the 20% drop that would officially mean the end of the longest bull market for stocks in modern history — a run of nearly 10 years.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -2.91%   sank 2.9% to 21,792.20. The Nasdaq skidded 2.2% to 6,192.92.

On Sunday, Mnuchin made a round of calls to the heads of the six largest U.S. banks, but the move only raised new concerns about the economy.

Most economists expect U.S. economic growth to slow in 2019, not slide into a full-blown recession. But the president has voiced his anger over the Fed’s decision to raise its key short-term rate four times in 2018. That is intended to prevent the economy from overheating.

Source: marketwatch.com

Japanese stocks plunged Tuesday and other Asian markets declined following heavy Wall Street losses triggered by President Donald Trump’s attack on the U.S. central bank...

READ MORE

Christmas And New Year Trading Schedule

Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_Christmas_NewYear

Please note the below upcoming Christmas and New Year trading schedule for Instruments on our SPA and SFL feed


24th of December -Christmas Eve

Forex            Normal Hours                                  

Metals          Early Close 19:45                           

GER30          Closed                           

GBR_100      Early Close 14:50                           

SPX500         Early Close 20:15                           

US30              Early Close 20:15                         

EUR_50         Closed                               

FRA_40         Early Close 15:00                            

NAS100         Early Close 20:00                          

AUS_200       Early Close at 05:30                                 

NGAS             Early Close 20:00               

25th of December- Christmas 

Forex            Closed                                  

Metals          Closed                           

GER30          Closed                           

GBR_100      Closed                            

SPX500         Closed                           

US30              Closed                          

EUR_50         Closed                               

FRA_40         Closed                             

NAS100         Closed                           

AUS_200       Closed                                 

NGAS             Closed 

26th of  December 

Forex            Normal Hours                                  

Metals          Normal Hours                           

GER30          Closed                           

GBR_100      Closed                            

SPX500         Closed                           

US30              Closed                          

EUR_50         Closed                               

FRA_40         Closed                             

NAS100         Closed                           

AUS_200       Closed                                 

NGAS             Closed 

27th of December 

Forex            Normal Hours                                  

Metals          Normal Hours                           

GER30          Opens at 02:15                          

GBR_100     Opens at 03:00                           

SPX500        Normal Hours                           

US30            Normal Hours                         

EUR_50      Normal Hours                      

FRA_40       Opens at 09:00                         

NAS100        Normal Hours                       

AUS_200     Normal Hours                        

NGAS           Normal Hours

31st of December 

Forex            Normal Hours                                  

Metals           Normal Hours                           

GER30          Closed                           

GBR_100      Early Close 14:50                           

SPX500          Normal Hours                           

US30               Normal Hours                         

EUR_50         Closed                               

FRA_40         Early Close 15:00                            

NAS100         Early Close 14:50                          

AUS_200       Early Close at 05:30                                 

NGAS             Early Close 20:00   

1st of January 

Forex            Closed                                  

Metals          Closed                           

GER30          Closed                           

GBR_100      Closed                            

SPX500         Closed                           

US30              Closed                          

EUR_50         Closed                               

FRA_40         Closed                             

NAS100         Closed                           

AUS_200       Closed                                 

NGAS             Closed 

2nd of January 

Forex            Normal Hours                                  

Metals          Normal Hours                           

GER30          Normal Hours                           

GBR_100     Normal Hours                         

SPX500        Normal Hours                           

US30            Normal Hours                         

EUR_50      Normal Hours                      

FRA_40       Normal Hours                         

NAS100        Normal Hours                       

AUS_200     Normal Hours                        

NGAS           Normal Hours


*all times are server time (GMT+2) 
  

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!!!

READ MORE

Forex Trading Wisdom

Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_Forex-Trading-wisdom_Forex-Trading-Quotes_Take_Profits

...Take your profits or someone else will take them for you...

-PIG Insider

READ MORE

Forex Today

Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_Tech-analysis_Risk_sentiment

In forex today, risk-based pairs drifted quietly higher, though overall markets remain tepid with pre-holiday volumes keeping action constrained near familiar levels.

Fears of a global growth slowdown and US-China trade tensions remain the key topics of discussion for market participants, and the US Dollar finds itself near the bottom of the barrel as rudderless US politics sees broader market sentiment remaining tumultuous beneath the surface.

The US Federal Reserve has drawn US President Donald Trump's ire, as Trump's own pick for the Federal Reserve chair continues to lift interest rates despite duplicitous tweets from the president demanding that the Fed stop raising rates too fast, to the point that Trump has been delivering rhetoric suggesting that he wants to find a way to fire the head of the Federal Reserve, leaving markets with a larrge questions mark and one foot squarely in safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin alerted market participants to the fact that he held high-level meetings with the heads of the US' six largest banks, reassuring investors that there are no liquidity problems in the US markets, leaving traders concerned that there may actually be problems where previously they thought there were none as Mnuchin insists on addressing fears that nobody expressed.

EUR/USD seeking 1.4000 despite overly-cautious markets

The Euro is lifting into 1.1390 after opening Monday near 1.1370, and despite overall market tensions, risk appetite is leaning into the upside as the US Dollar takes a step lower on political frailties back home. European political turmoil is far from over in their own right, but EUR investors are seeing slim gains heading into the Christmas holiday shutdown.

GBP/USD knocking on resistance-heavy door just below 1.2700

Brexit wear and tear that has seen the Sterling hobbled for much of 2018 have been temporarily put on hold, but January looms dark and large ahead, with no-confidence votes, parliamentary withdrawal proposal votes, and a bleeding clock on the final Brexti date at the end of March 2019 all promising to keep UK markets under firm pressure. For now though, holiday markets see paper-thin volumes lifting the Cable above 1.2650 as the US Dollar withers across the board.

Key notes from the Asia session

China to remove iron export tariff from January 1st - China Finance Ministry

China's NDRC to boost targeted investment - Bloomberg

US Treasury Sec Mnuchin: Convened meeting with six major bank CEOs

Source: fxstreet.com

In forex today, risk-based pairs drifted quietly higher, though overall markets remain tepid with pre-holiday volumes keeping action constrained near familiar levels...

READ MORE

PAMMs Weekly Update

Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_PAMMS_MANAGED_ACCOUNTS_PROFIT_DEC_week 3

Find out more about our Managed PAMM Accounts here.

READ MORE

FOREX Week Ahead

Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_Week_Ahead_DEC

What a week for bears and volatility! The highly anticipated Fed event delivered volatility that brought down all the major indexes to their knees. The Fed raised rates, reduced their dot plot forecasts, but they signalled that quantitative tightening is on automatic pilot. Stocks dropped and safe-haven assets soared as concerns of tighter liquidity and a partial government shutdown dashed hopes for a Santa rally. With Fed officials lowering their inflation outlook, global growth concerns driving recession worries, expectations for future rate increases and optimism for the US economy are dwindling. For risk appetite to return, we may need to see the Fed talk back the hawkishness.

  • A lot of indexes are either in or flirting with bear market territory
  • Is oil forming a bottom?
  • Brexit and trade war deadlines come into focus

This month, weakness in equities has either come from trade war fears, anemic economic data outside the US, lack of dovish assurances from the Fed, a partial government shutdown, lower oil prices and recession concerns. As we approach holiday trading conditions, some investors are keeping to the sidelines and waiting to see if the bearish momentum continues in January. Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 are on pace for their worst December performance since the Great Depression.

Oil hovers near 18-month lows
The collapse in oil is starting to make US shale producers reduce their spending. Some companies have shutdown rigs and reduced their fracking crews, but in order for oil to stabilise, we will need to see US producers significantly reign in their output. The oil production cuts from OPEC and the reductions we are seeing in shale are currently modest at best. If we continue to see slower economic growth that will weigh on demand and make it difficult for oil to stabilise

Brexit outcome nearing

We are well under 100 days until the Brexit deadline and PM May appears to be trying to run out the clock before pushing her Brexit deal through Parliament. The House of Commons recess is from December 20th to January 7th and the Prime Minister is hoping she can retain as many senior ministers before talks intensify next month. The vote is expected on the week of January 14th and depending on how much she loses that vote by could determine what we see next. If we see a motion of no confidence in the government that could bring about an early general election if it is supported by a majority of MPs. The scenarios remain plentiful on how Brexit will turn out, but the ultimate resolution of a soft-Brexit is still being seen with cable.

Trade war cease-fire winds down

The trade war is hurting China and top policymakers this week signaled they will provide more support to the economy with tax cut and other policy measures. The 90-day tariff truce made between President Xi and President Trump ends on March 1st and if we don’t see more significant progress we could see the yuan continue to fall along with equities. Trump is adamant that China open their markets to the US, address intellectual property theft and forced technology transfer, and narrow the trade deficit. We may not see the final framework for a deal by the ceasefire deadline, but if we see progress, we could see that elevate risk appetite.

Source: marketpulse.com

What a week for bears and volatility! The highly anticipated Fed event delivered volatility that brought down all the major indexes to their knees. The Fed raised rates, reduced their ...

READ MORE

PAMMs Daily Update

Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_PAMMS_MANAGED_ACCOUNTS_PROFIT_20.12.2018

Find out more about our Managed PAMM Accounts here.

READ MORE

ONDA PAMM

Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_PAMMS_MANAGED_ACCOUNTS_PROFIT_ONDA-PAMM

When you hear "FOREX", the first thing that rings the bell is the UNLIMITED options and strategies to make MONEY.
But in all that immenseness, things are very often taken to the extent of such a complexity that the basic of FX are long way forgotten…not to mention the old KSS evergreen rule – "keep it simple and stupid"

Therefore most of the times, the indefinite possibility to make money is easily converted to vast risk to lose money.
The fact that its been a while that we have not bragged about detecting a system that holds potential for your capital to grow is not because no manager has approached us…. On the contrary, but our benchmarks are getting higher and higher with each PAMM that we feature, in order to offer a solid and stable system on the long run.

The ONDA PAMM has returned to the basics of trading, The system trades on the market "WAVES", applying "trend-following", a "trend-following after pullbacks" and a "counter-trend" logic, analyzing potential supply and demand imbalances by calculating price dynamics after strong market moves

With an already robust 4+ years PROFITABLE and PROVEN track record,run by an experience and regulated manager, on the  the ONDA PAMM is available for new allocations with a targeted annual performance of 50% and  maximum hard stop of 25%.

Nevertheless, we want to make it a point to remind you that hard stops are stop loss orders which are executed at market and are susceptible to slippage, which could lead to larger than expected losses. In reality it should be known that when granting trading privileges via an LPOA to a money manager one has to assume that all the available capital is potentially at risk.

The performance fee for the ONDA PAMM is based on your account size, according to the following  schedule:

2,000 USD to 10,000 USD - 35%
10,001 USD to 100,000 USD - 30%
100,001 USD to 500,000 USD - 25%
500,001 USD to 1,000,000 USD - 20%
> 1,000,001 USD - 15%

More information about the PAMM can be found here:

https://www.fxpig.com/pamm/onda

Alternatively, you can view the complete trading history of this PAMM via the following MyFXBOOK Profile:

https://www.myfxbook.com/members/FXPIG/onda/2798743

So...as you sit now doing the Christmas and  New Year's present list, maybe you should reconsider the budget, add a new line on the list…and join the "WAVE".

And, if the ONDA PAMM isn't the one for you... well, no worries, our Featured PAMM list has something for everyone, covering all types of risk appetites.

The ONDA PAMM has returned to the basics of trading. The system trades on the market "WAVES", applying "trend-following", a "trend-following after pullbacks" and a "counter-trend" logic, analyzing potential supply and demand imbalances by calculating price dynamics after strong market moves...

READ MORE

PAMMs Daily Update

Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_PAMMS_MANAGED_ACCOUNTS_PROFIT_18.12.2018

Find out more about our Managed PAMM Accounts here.

READ MORE

AUD/USD -Cloudy Skies

Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_AUDUSD_cloudy-skies

AUD/USD is struggling to escape the pull of last week's short-term, making tomorrow's Fed decision and presser pivotal.
Today's rise halted at the 10-DMA, and the subsequent drop brought AUD/USD below the 55-DMA and back into the daily cloud.

RSIs have turned down again, providing help to bears.
The break to a new trend low in oil futures and today's sharp fall in copper futures have intensified the bearish pressures.

AUD/USD needs help on a number of fronts to change the oultook.
Indications from the Fed that their rate hike cycle is complete after tomorrow, progress on U.S.-Sino trade relations and improved sentiment regarding global growth could all help ease downward pressure on AUD/USD.

A dovish Fed hike tomorrow would be the first step.
Should the Fed hold on its current course of projected rate hikes, AUD/USD is likely to take out the 0.7150 level.
Bears will then target 2018's 0.7021 low.

A break there puts the June 2016 low in play.

Source: efxdata.com

Indications from the Fed that their rate hike cycle is complete after tomorrow, progress on U.S.-Sino trade relations and improved sentiment regarding global growth could all help ease downward pressure on AUD/USD...

READ MORE

Gold retreats

 Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_GOLD-retreats
  • Gold off highs amid a recovery of the US dollar and despite a negative in tone in Wall Street.
  • Price tested the $1250/oz area but again failed to break higher.

Gold is trading at $1,247/oz, practically flat for the day. Hours ago reached the highest level in a week at $1,250.20. The area around the critical $1,250 level capped the upside and price retreated. It found support at $1,245.

The move away from the highs took place amid a recovery of the greenback across the board. The dollar remains in negative territory against most of its rivals but trimmed losses significantly.

The Federal Reserve started today it's 2-day meeting. A 25 bp rate hike is expected to be announced tomorrow. However, attention will likely focus on the FOMC projections that could have a significant influence on the US dollar.

XAU/USD Levels to watch

To the upside, if gold rises and holds on top fo $1,250 it could point to further gains. The next resistance levels might lie at $1,254 and $1,261. On the flip side, supports could be seen at  $1,244 (daily low), $1,240 and $1,235 (20-day moving average).

Source: fxstreet.com

Gold is trading at $1,247/oz, practically flat for the day. Hours ago reached the highest level in a week at $1,250.20. The area around the critical $1,250 level capped the...

READ MORE

PAMMs Daily Update

Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_PAMMS_MANAGED_ACCOUNTS_PROFIT_17.12.2018

Find out more about our Managed PAMM Accounts here.

READ MORE
Load More

OH SH*T CALENDAR

UPCOMING FOREX NEWS EVENTS
  • LOADING...

  • DATE

    CURRENCY

    EVENT

    IMPACT

  • Loading events...