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Forex Tech Targets

FX_Tech-Targets_Bulls_Bears_FXPIG_13.11.08

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, 1.1485): Break of 1.1200 could open up the way for further rapid drop.

While we have held the view that there is “scope for EUR to retest the major 1.1300 support” since last Friday (09 Nov, spot at 1.1365), the manner of which it crashed below this level yesterday (12 Nov) came as a surprise. We indicated yesterday (12 Nov, spot at 1.1325) a “NY closing below this major support would suggest EUR could weaken further to the next support at 1.1220” and this scenario is supposed to take days to evolve and not hours (EUR hit a low of 1.1213 during late NY hours). To put it in perspective, over the past 3 trading days, EUR has lost a whopping -1.81%. The last time we saw a decline of similar magnitude was back in June when the political upheavals in Italy were at its peak. From here, we are seeing strong support at 1.1200 but a clear break of this level could open up the way for further rapid drop to 1.1130, 1.1100. On the upside, the ‘key resistance’ at 1.1410 has moved sharply lower to 1.1350.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, spot at 1.2795): Still in range but risk of a break of 1.2800 has increased.

We highlighted yesterday (12 Nov, spot at 1.2935) last week’s “1.3176 high is deemed as a short-term top and we do not expect GBP to move above this level for the next couple of weeks”. While we were of the view that the “near-term bias is tilted to the downside”, we did not anticipate the bottom of the expected 1.2800/1.3080 consolidation range to come within sight so soon (GBP hit an overnight low of 1.2827). For now, we continue to hold the view that GBP is trading within the range mentioned above even though the risk of a break of 1.2800 has increased. Looking forward, a break of 1.2800 would suggest GBP is ready to tackle the late October low of 1.2697.

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 13 Sep 18, spot at 0.7170): Diminished odds for further AUD strength.

The rapid deceleration in AUD from last Thursday (08 Nov) peak of 0.7303 came as surprise. The ‘key support’ for our positive view at 0.7150 appears to be vulnerable and break of this level would indicate that the 0.7303 high is a short-term top. For now, there is still chance, albeit a rather slim one that AUD could stage another leg higher to test 0.7315. In other words, the odds for further AUD strength have diminished considerably. Looking forward, a break of 0.7150 would not alter the current neutral but would suggest AUD could consolidate and trade sideways for the next 1 to 2 weeks.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 20 Aug 18, 0.6625): NZD has moved into a sideway-trading phase.

While the ‘key support’ for our positive view at 0.6690 is still intact (low of 0.6706), the weak daily closing in NY (0.6710) is enough to indicate that NZD has made a short-term top. That said, it is too early to expect a sustained decline and the current movement is deemed as part of a consolidation phase. In other words, NZD is expected to trade sideways from here, likely between 0.6635 and 0.6785.

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 09 Oct 18, 113.10): Focus is at 114.54 now.

Despite overall positive indications, USD has not been able to make much headway above 114.00 (USD briefly touched 114.20 yesterday before easing off quickly). For now, we continue to see chance for USD to visit last month’s top at 114.54 but a break of the 113.20 ‘key support’ would indicate that a short-term top is in place.

Source;efxdata.com

EUR/USD: Neutral - Break of 1.1200 could open up the way for further rapid drop.GBP/USD: Neutral - Still in range but risk of a break of 1.2800 has increased. AUD/USD: Neutral - Diminished odds for further AUD strength...

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Forex Today

FX_Today_FXPIG

Forex Today witnessed a major turnaround in the risk sentiment in Tuesday’s Asian trading, in response to the latest report that China’s Vice Premier is heading to the US soon to bring out a resolution on the US-China trade talks. Markets believed this move by China could pave the way for clinching the much-awaited trade deal when the Trump-Xi meeting take place later this month. As a result, the appetite for the risk assets got a lift at the expense of the safe-havens.

The Asian equities stalled their declines and attempted a tepid recovery, sending the Yen lower across the board. The USD/JPY pair jumped back above the 114 handle briefly while the Aussie rebounded to 0.7220 levels, despite downbeat NAB readings. The Kiwi also followed suit and tested the 0.6750 upside barrier. Both the EUR and GBP were rescued, as the US dollar corrected sharply from multi-month tops amid risk-on market action.

Among the commodities, Gold prices on Comex bounced-off 1200 demand zone to now trade near 1205 region. Both crude benchmarks traded near multi-month lows, still weighed down by the US President Trump’s tweet on the OPEC output policy.

Main Topics in Asia

UK PM May: Brexit talks in 'endgame', unsolved issues remain - Reuters

UK SMEs expect Sterling to fall sharply after Brexit

US auto-tariffs back in the forefront of EU, Japan talks - Reuters

Janet Yellen sees 3 or 4 Fed rate hikes in the next 12 months - Bloomberg

PBOC’s Yi: Previous policy measures caused an over tightening in credit policy

State-owned Chinese banks seen selling US dollars in onshore spot fx market - Reuters

BoJ’s balance sheet now larger than country's GDP - Reuters

USD/CNY to reach 7.0000 within six months – Goldman Sachs

China’s Premier Li: China is willing to improve free trade through discussion

China’s top trade war negotiator Liu to visit US to pave way for Xi-Trump meeting

Key Focus Ahead

The session ahead will be relatively busy, with full markets returning and a couple of first-tier macro news slated for release. The UK sees the release of the labor market report, with the main indicator likely to be the earnings growth, which will shape up the BOE’s next policy move. The UK jobs report will be reported at 0930 GMT, followed by the Eurozone and German ZEW survey due at 1000 GMT.  Apart from the macro data, the speeches by the ECB Governing Council members Praet and ECB Executive Board Member Lautenschlaeger are scheduled at 0800 GMT and 0845 GMT respectively.

In the NA session, no significant economic releases is due on the cards from the US and Canada. Hence, the Fedspeaks will grab some attention for fresh US dollar trades. The FOMC members Brainard and Kashkari will speak at 1500 GMT, but at different events while Daly’s speech is due at 2200 GMT.

EUR/USD: Risk bounce to be short-lived if Italy defies EU over big budget spend

The EUR/USD pair found bids in Asia, courtesy of renewed US-China trade optimism, however, sustainability of corrective rallies, if any, is under question as Italy is expected to resubmit a largely unchanged and a high-spend budget to the European Union today.

GBP/USD hoping for a grasp on 1.2900 ahead of Tuesday's UK Earnings report

Early Tuesday action sees the GBP getting a relief bounce as the US Dollar pauses across the board, but a continued bull-run is looking unlikely unless today's UK earnings figures can distract investors from the notable lack of forward momentum on Brexit proceedings.

UK: Wage growth is expected to remain strong – Barclays

The Barclays Research Team is out with its take on today’s UK labor market report due on the cards at 0930 GMT, with the key focus likely to be on the wage growth figures.

BREXIT deadlines: will a November Summit will occur? - ANZ

Analysts at ANZ Bank New Zealand Limited explained that the UK political uncertainty remains rife.

Gold to perform admirably in 2019

“…as we look into our crystal ball and gaze into 2019, emerging warning signs can be seen that suggests 2019 could be the year where the gold bulls finally get their day in the sun.”

Source: fxstreet.com

Forex Today witnessed a major turnaround in the risk sentiment in Tuesday’s Asian trading, in response to the latest report that China’s Vice Premier is heading to the US soon to bring out a resolution on the US-China trade talks. Markets believed this move by China could pave...

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PAMMs Daily Results

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Forex Week Ahead

FED_USD_FXPIG

The US dollar rose against most major pairs on Friday. Only the Japanese yen was able to gain against the mighty greenback. The FOMC statement eased concerns that the Fed would hint at a pause in its tightening of monetary policy. The lack of changes, and given that there was no press conference, and lacking other details overall boosted the US dollar ahead of the release of inflation and retail sales data. The uncertainty about the US-midterms has passed and the market remains confident in US growth despite political parties splitting house and senate.

US fundamentals have worked in favor of the dollar. European data will decide the fate of the euro with the release of German ZEW Economic Sentiment, German preliminary GDP and the European Union first estimate of quarterly GDP growth. ECB policy makers Mario Draghi and Jens Weidmann will speak in Frankfurt to close the week with investors eager for insights into the next steps of the central bank.

  • US core inflation expected at 2.2 percent
  • US retail sales to bounce back with 0.6 percent gain
  • Italian budget due on Tuesday with little compromise anticipated

Dollar Back in Control Ahead of Inflation and Sales Data

The EUR/USD lost 0.43 percent in the last five trading sessions. The single currency is trading at 1.1334. The euro rose near the 1.15 price level as the results of the midterms was released but as uncertainty cleared andThe FOMC rate statement was published the dollar rose. The gap in rates between the US and Europe will grow bigger as December has high probabilities of an interest rate lift by the Fed.

The European Central Bank (ECB) on the other hand is not likely to start ramping up rates until the summer, and that is conditional on the economic performance improving despite political interference. For the time being the Italian budget drama has not triggered an exit from the Union. Deputy Premier Luigi Di Maio reassured the market that Italy won’t exit the euro.

The slowdown of the Chinese economy is increasing worries about global growth and making the US dollar more attractive as a safe haven, putting more downward pressure on the euro.

Brexit Optimism Broken by Johnson Resignation

The GBP/USD gained 0.11 percent in the last five days. Sterling is trading at 1.2975 versus the USD. The currency pair was lower on Friday as new of the resignation of MP Jo Johnson on Friday. The UK Transport secretary, and brother to Boris, resigned in protest over Theresa May’s Brexit plan. In contrast to his brother, Mr Johnson was a remain campaigner and he has deemed the current deal a terrible mistake.


The UK government continues to struggle to please too many contradictory interests and although hope of an orderly exit has risen with EU officials saying a deal is close, the fact remains that in some crucial issues a consensus has not been achieved.

The Irish backstop has become a bigger headache as what the UK wants will not be acceptable by the EU, and what would be agreed to by the EU would not be easily sold to Northern Ireland.

Kiwi Higher on Employment Data Sensitive to China Slowdown

The NZD/USD gained 1.38 percent during the week. The currency pair is trading at 0.6736 after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) held rates, but was seen as hawkish. Employment data supported the view of the central bank with the unemployment rate touching a low not seen since 2008. The size of the recovery took the market by surprise and boosted the kiwi against the US dollar.

The currency will face mounting pressure as the US gets back in the drivers seat with Fed rates and the US-China trade dispute big factors that will influence the NZD.

Oil Stuck in Downward Spiral

Energy prices fell this week, West Texas Intermediate dropped 4.67 percent and Brent 3.64 percent as fears that the market will have more oil in play than what it is justified by existing demand. The US sanctions against Iran triggered a rise in prices, with Saudi Arabia and Russia pledging higher production to cover the gap in supply. As sanctions got closer it was announced that Iran’s biggest clients would get waivers, reducing the need for more barrels, but it was already too late to correct production schedules and trades valued oil lower accordingly.

Disruptions from weather and geopolitical conflicts have taken oil prices higher, but as weather impacts on oil production have eased and the Iran waivers and the Iraq-Kurdish agreement there will be a swing in the other direction for energy prices.

Gold Drops as Dollar Goes Big After Midterms

Gold fell 1.92 percent during the week after the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement made clear the central bank will continue its pace of monetary policy tightening. A December rate hike. The CME FedWatch tool shows a 75.8 percent probability of a lift to the Fed funds rate at the FOMC meeting on December 19.

Uncertainty ahead of the US midterms had kept the yellow metal bid as the US dollar lacked traction. With the elections sorted, the market focused on US fundamentals and the Fed delivered a statement with no changes, hinting at a rate hike at the end of the year.

Source: marketpulse.com

The US dollar rose against most major pairs on Friday. Only the Japanese yen was able to gain against the mighty greenback. The FOMC statement eased concerns that the Fed would hint at a pause in its tightening of monetary policy. The lack of changes, and given that there was no...

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FOREX Trading Wisdom

FOREX_Trading_Wisdom_Trading-Rule#9_FXPIG

...Trading Rule #10: Break Rules, Sparingly...

-PIG Insider

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GBP/USD challenges 1.3000

GBP_Chanllange_FXPIG
  • Cable stays weak near 1.30 post-UK data on Friday.
  • UK’s advanced Q3 GDP matched previous estimates at 0.6% QoQ.
  • Brexit negotiation remains the key driver for Sterling.

The selling bias around the British Pound remains well and sound during the second half of the week, although some decent contention turned up in the sub-1.30 area for GBP/USD, session lows.

GBP/USD looks to Brexit headlines for direction

Cable is down for the second consecutive session so far at the end of the week, coming under further downside pressure mainly in response to the lack of progress in the UK-EU Brexit negotiations.

Today’s UK data have lent some support to the Sterling after preliminary Q3 GDP figures now see the economy expanding 0.6% QoQ and 1.5% on a yearly basis, matching forecasts.

Further UK data saw Industrial Production coming in flat inter-month in September and Manufacturing Production expanding 0.2%. In addition, the trade deficit shrunk to 9.73 billion in September, bettering estimates.

GBP/USD levels to consider

As of writing, the pair is losing 0.44% at 1.3005 and a breakdown of 1.2989 (21-day SMA) would open the door to 1.2959 (10-day SMA) and finally 1.2921 (low Oct.4). On the upside, the next hurdle is located at 1.3176 (high Nov.7) seconded by 1.3259 (high Oct.12) and then 1.3299 (high Sep.20).

Source: efxstreet.com

The selling bias around the British Pound remains well and sound during the second half of the week, although some decent contention turned up in the sub-1.30 area for GBP/USD, session lows. GBP/USD looks to Brexit headlines for direction...

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USD/JPY retreats

•  The post-FOMC USD up-move fails to assist build on overnight strong up-move.


•  Risk-off mood underpins JPY’s safe-haven demand and exerts downward pressure.

The USD/JPY pair traded with a mild negative bias through the Asian session on Friday and eroded a part of previous session strong up-move to five-week tops.

Resurgent US Dollar demand on Thursday helped the pair to build on the previous session's goodish rebound from sub-113.00 level, touched in the aftermath of the US midterm election results that showed a split Congress in the US.

The positive momentum accelerated further, lifting the pair to levels just above the 114.00 handle after the Fed maintained its hawkish stance with an upbeat assessment of the economy and reiterated its commitment to continue raising interest rates gradually in the future.

The post-FOMC USD up-move extended through early trading hours on Friday, albeit failed to provide any fresh bullish impetus. A softer tone around equity markets underpinned the Japanese Yen's safe-haven status and turned out to be one of the key factors keeping a lid on any further up-move.

A slight deterioration in investors' appetite for riskier assets was evident from a softer tone around the US Treasury bond yields, which further collaborated to the pair's ongoing retracement slide to fresh intraday lows, around the 113.85-80 region.

With the only scheduled release of the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for November, today's economic docket lacks any major market-moving economic data. Hence, the broader market risk sentiment might continue to act as an exclusive driver of the pair's momentum on the last trading day of the week.

Technical levels to watch

Any subsequent slide is likely to find support near the 113.70-65 region and is followed by the 113.45-40 region, below which the downfall could further get extended towards the 113.10-113.00 support area. On the flip side, the 114.00-114.05 region now seems to have emerged as an immediate resistance, which if cleared could accelerate the up-move further towards the 114.50-55 supply zone.

Source: fxstreet.com

The USD/JPY pair traded with a mild negative bias through the Asian session on Friday and eroded a part of previous session strong up-move to five-week tops. Resurgent US Dollar demand on Thursday helped the pair to build on the previous session's goodish rebound from...

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PAMMs Daily Results

PAMM_FOREX_FXPIG _08.11

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EUR/JPY Tech Analysis

  • The recovery in the cross met strong resistance in the boundaries of the key 200-day SMA at 130.2, provoking failure and the ongoing knee-jerk after five consecutive daily advances.
  • Immediate target on the upside remains the 200-day SMA at 130.21. A sustainable breakout of this area should pave the way for a visit to late-August peaks around 130.90.
  • In order to reassert the upside pressure, EUR/JPY needs to break above the resistance line off YTD tops, today at 132.29.

 

EUR/JPY

Overview:
   Last Price: 129.74
   Daily change: -12 pips
   Daily change: -0.0924%
   Daily Open: 129.86
Trends:
   Daily SMA20: 128.91
   Daily SMA50: 129.91
   Daily SMA100: 129.49
   Daily SMA200: 130.29
Levels:
   Daily High: 130.16
   Daily Low: 129.39
   Weekly High: 129.34
   Weekly Low: 127.24
   Monthly High: 132.49
   Monthly Low: 126.63
   Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 129.87
   Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 129.69
   Daily Pivot Point S1: 129.45
   Daily Pivot Point S2: 129.03
   Daily Pivot Point S3: 128.67
   Daily Pivot Point R1: 130.22
   Daily Pivot Point R2: 130.58
   Daily Pivot Point R3: 130.99

Source: fxstreet.com

The recovery in the cross met strong resistance in the boundaries of the key 200-day SMA at 130.2, provoking failure and the ongoing knee-jerk after five consecutive daily advances. Immediate target on the upside remains ...

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FOREX Trading Wisdom

Forex_Trading_Wisdom_FXPIG

...Trading Rule #9: Talk Yourself Out of Bad Trades...

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Forex Today

Forex today in Asia was characterised by minimal volatility and tight trading ranges, as the dust settled over the US mid-term elections aftermath.  The US dollar staged a solid comeback across its major rivals, having almost reversed a Democrats win induced sell-off seen a day before. The USD/JPY traded firmer and headed for a test of the 113.85 barrier amid risk-on action on the Asian equities and higher Treasury yields. The Aussie also derived support from a big beat on the Chinese exports and imports data while improved risk appetite also underpinned. The Kiwi advanced, but remained capped below the 0.68 handle after the RBNZ left the cash rate unchanged and retained the dovish tone.

Among other majors, the EUR and the pound were buoyed by some optimism over the European politics while the Loonie benefited from a rebound in oil prices on fresh OPEC output cuts talks. Gold inched lower near 1225 level, slightly cautious heading into the FOMC rate decision.

Main Topics in Asia

Japan data sees Machine orders decline, Bank Lending contracts

BoJ Summary of Opinions: Inflation to increase "gradually"

RBNZ Gov Orr: Keeping stimulative policy for now

US Dem Pelosi: ready to pursue Trump oversight - Reuters

China to levy anti-dumping duties on rubber from S. Korea and Japan

China’s Oct trade balance (CNY): Exports and imports jump – a big beat

China’s October trade data (USD): Surplus expands 34.01bn, in line with estimates

US to impose new duties on Chinese aluminium sheet products - Reuters

Asian stocks up across the board as post-US election risk bid continue

Key Focus Ahead

A quiet EUR calendar this Thursday, sees the second-liner Swiss jobless rate at 0645 GMT, soon followed by the German trade balance at 0700 GMT. The EU economic bulletin, as well as the European Commission’s growth forecasts, will be published later in the European session.

The NA session remains eventful, with the Canadian housing data on the cards alongside the weekly US jobless claims release. Besides, speeches by the ECB President Draghi and Governing Council member Coeure will be due after 1400 GMT. The main event risk for today remains the FOMC monetary policy announcement due later at 1900 GMT.

EUR/USD: Indecisive breakout, focus on the FOMC rate decision

A close below 1.1395 looks likely as the Fed-ECB monetary policy divergence is set to grow further in the near future. The Fed is likely to keep rates unchanged today and signal a December rate hike.

GBP/USD trying to put in a floor at 1.3100 before stretching higher

Little data of note is slated for the economic calendar for Thursday, but GBP traders will be gearing up for the UK's GDP reading, due on Friday, and Brexit headlines continuing to leak out of the UK are suggesting that …

FOMC Preview & Post Election Outlook for the Dollar

With the US Midterm Elections behind us and the Democrats victory in the House the U.S. dollar ended the day lower against most of the major currencies. Looking ahead, we have a Federal Reserve monetary policy announcement on Thursday.

RBA SoMP: Expect no revisions to growth forecasts - HSBC

Analysts at HSBC offer a brief preview of Friday’s Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Statement of Monetary Policy (SoMP) due at 0030 GMT.

Source: fxstreet.com

Forex today in Asia was characterised by minimal volatility and tight trading ranges, as the dust settled over the US mid-term elections aftermath. The US dollar staged a solid comeback across its major rivals, having almost reversed a Democrats win induced sell-off seen a day before...

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PAMMs Daily Results

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Crude Oil Tech Analysis

OIL_Tech -analysis_FXPIG
  • Crude oil is trading in a strong bear trend below the 50, 100 and 200-period simple moving average on the 4-hour chart.
  • In reaction to the EIA data, oil lost almost $1 in a few minutes. Oil inventories rose to 5.7M versus 2.43M in the week to November 2 which was seen as very bearish by the market.
  • Oil is now continuing its descent reaching the 61.00 figure. While some consolidation up towards 62.00 can take place the momentum remains clearly to the downside.

Main Trend:              Bearish

Resistance 1:           61.81 April 6 low
Resistance 2:           63.00 figure
Resistance 3:           63.59 June 18 low
Resistance 4:           64.00 figure

Support 1:             61.00 figure
Support 2:             59.95 March 8 low
Support 3:             58.07 February 9 low
Support 4:             55.82 December 7, 2017


Additional key levels at a glance:

GBP/USD

Overview:
   Last Price: 1.3134
   Daily change: 37 pips
   Daily change: 0.283%
   Daily Open: 1.3097
Trends:
   Daily SMA20: 1.2998
   Daily SMA50: 1.3029
   Daily SMA100: 1.3039
   Daily SMA200: 1.3419
Levels:
   Daily High: 1.31
   Daily Low: 1.3021
   Weekly High: 1.3042
   Weekly Low: 1.2696
   Monthly High: 1.326
   Monthly Low: 1.2696
   Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.307
   Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.3051
   Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.3045
   Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.2993
   Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.2966
   Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.3125
   Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.3152
   Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.3204

Source: fxstreet.com

Crude oil is trading in a strong bear trend below the 50, 100 and 200-period simple moving average on the 4-hour chart. In reaction to the EIA data, oil lost almost $1 in a few minutes...

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FOREX Trading Wisdom

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...Trading Rule #8: Protect Your Mental Capital...

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FOMC Update

FOMC_ no-raise_FXPIG

Analysts at National Bank Financial, suggest that today’s Fed rate setting meeting will be held on the heel of a month characterised by both global and domestic stock market weakness, which has contributed to some tightening of U.S. financial conditions.

Key Quotes

“Looking at the real side of the economy we note that the Economic Surprise Index has improved slightly since the September FOMC meeting. However most of the gain may be attributed to survey data rather than hard data, which have largely remained softer than expected.”

“In that context, we do not see why the FOMC would feel any urgency to raise its policy rate on November 8th. This said, in light of our economic projections, we think the Fed remains on track to deliver one more rate hike this year, but in December. That would be consistent with last week comments by the Fed’s new vice chair Richard Clarida, who, in his first public speech, said he thought “some further gradual adjustment in the policy rate range will likely be appropriate.”

Source: fxstreet.com

Analysts at National Bank Financial, suggest that today’s Fed rate setting meeting will be held on the heel of a month characterised by both global and domestic stock market weakness, which has contributed to some tightening of ...

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Forex Tech Targets

Bulls_Bears_FXPIG_Forex_07.11.2018

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, 1.1485): Immediate bias is for EUR to probe the top of the expected 1.1330/1.1490 consolidation range.

There is not much to add to last Friday’s (02 Nov, spot at 1.1400) update wherein last Tuesday’s (31 Oct) low of 1.1299 is deemed as a short-term bottom and this level is expected to hold for a couple of weeks. On a short-term basis, the immediate bias is for EUR to ‘probe’ the top of the expected 1.1330/1.1490 consolidation range. At this stage, the prospect for a break above the range is not high but the odds would continue to improve if EUR can continue to hold above 1.1370 in the coming days. Looking ahead, a break above 1.1490 would suggest the 1.1299 low could turn out to be a significant bottom.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, spot at 1.2795): Rebound could extend further but a break of 1.3190 would be surprising.

We highlighted on Monday (05 Nov, spot at 1.3000), the “rebound in GBP has room to extend higher to 1.3100”. While the expectation was right as GBP touched a high of 1.3111 during NY hours, the pace of the advance has been more rapid than expected. From here, the rebound could extend further but at this stage, a break of the major 1.3190 resistance would come as a surprise. On the downside, only a move back below the ‘key support’ at 1.2950 (level previously at 1.2840) would indicate that a short-term top is in place.

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 13 Sep 18, spot at 0.7170): Scope for AUD to test the key and critical 0.7260 resistance.

We indicated last Friday (02 Nov, spot at 0.7205) there is “scope for AUD to test the key and critical 0.7260 resistance”. AUD took a ‘sniff’ at this level but retreated quickly from a high of 0.7258. As highlighted, this 8-1/2 month declining trend-line is a ‘key and critical’ resistance and a break of this level would suggest that the 0.7021 low seen on 26 Oct is a significant mid to long-term bottom. Despite failing to break above 0.7260 on Friday and the subsequent rapid pull-back from the high, another attempt to break this level is not ruled out. Only a move back below 0.7110 (no change in ‘key support’ level from last Friday) would indicate that a short-term top is in place. Looking ahead, a break of 0.7260 would indicate that AUD is ready to move above the September’s peak of 0.7315.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 20 Aug 18, 0.6625): Further NZD strength is not ruled out but 0.6850 is likely out of reach.

We have held the same view since last Friday (02 Nov, spot at 0.6645) wherein there is “scope for NZD to test the September’s peak of 0.6700”. However, instead of ‘testing’ this major resistance, the better than expected NZ jobs data sent NZD rocketing to an overnight high of 0.6742. Despite the strong up-move, we still think that it is too soon to expect the start of a bullish reversal. Only a clear break above 0.6850 would indicate that NZD has made a mid to long-term bottom. Meanwhile, further NZD strength is not ruled out but 0.6850 is likely out of reach, at least for the next 1 to 2 weeks (0.6780 is already a strong level). On the downside, the ‘key support’ is currently at 0.6640, up from 0.6565 previously.

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 09 Oct 18, 113.10): NY close above 113.50 would suggest USD is ready to challenge 114.00.

USD tested the top of our expected 112.00/113.50 consolidation range as it touched an overnight high of 113.49. As highlighted last Friday, a NY closing above 113.50 would suggest USD is ready to challenge 114.00. This scenario would not be surprising unless USD were to move back below 112.80 within these 1 to 2 days.

Source: efxdata.com

EUR/USD: Neutral : Immediate bias is for EUR to probe the top of the expected 1.1330/1.1490 consolidation range; GBP/USD: Neutral: Rebound could extend further but a break of 1.3190 would be surprising; AUD/USD: Neutral : Scope for AUD to test the key and critical 0.7260 resistance...

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Gold turns higher

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•  Cautious mood underpins safe-haven demand and helps gain positive traction.


  •  Subdued USD price action, ahead of the US midterm elections, remains supportive.


  •  Fed rate hike expectations might keep a lid ahead of Thursday’s FOMC decision.

Gold reversed an early dip to sub-$1230 level and is now holding with modest daily gains, recovering the downtick witnessed over the past two trading sessions.

The prevalent cautious mood across global financial markets, ahead of the US midterm elections, turned out to be one of the key factors underpinning the precious metal's safe-haven status.

This, against the backdrop of a subdued US Dollar price action, provided a minor lift and assisted the dollar-denominated commodity to attempt to build on last week's goodish rebound from three-week lows.

The up-move, however, seemed lacking strong conviction/follow-through amid firming expectations for gradual Fed rate hike moves, even beyond 2018, which tends to dampen demand for the non-yielding yellow metal.

Hence, the latest FOMC monetary policy update, scheduled to be announced on Thursday, will now play an important role in determining the commodity's next leg of the directional move.

In the meantime, results of Tuesday's vote might further infuse a bout of volatility across global financial markets and derive safe-haven demand, eventually helping traders to grab some short-term opportunities.

Technical levels to watch

Any subsequent up-move is likely to confront immediate resistance near the $1237 level, above which the metal seems all set to retest multi-month highs, around the $1243-44 region. On the flip side, the $1228-26 region now seems to have emerged as an immediate support, which if broken is likely to accelerate the fall further towards the $1215 support region.

Source: fxstreet.com

Gold reversed an early dip to sub-$1230 level and is now holding with modest daily gains, recovering the downtick witnessed over the past two trading sessions. The prevalent cautious mood across global financial markets, ahead of the US midterm elections, turned out to...

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Forex Today

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Forex today in Asia was a quiet affair today, with most majors sticking to tight trading ranges, as the investors trade with caution in the run up to the US mid-term elections showdown later on Tuesday. The US dollar traded on the front against its major rivals, but the bulls lacked vigor amid increased odds of the Democratic Party winning over the House of Representatives.  

Amongst the Asia-pac currencies, the Aussie traded better bid after the RBA upped the 2018 and 2019 GDP forecasts a little. Meanwhile, the Kiwi also advanced on the back of repositioning. The USD/JPY held onto gains near 113.30 levels, as mixed Asian equities capped further upside.

On the commodities front, both crude benchmarks traded on the back foot, as US grants temporary oil waivers to China and India from the Iran sanctions. Gold prices on Comex were little changed near USD 1232 while copper futures on Comex attempted a tepid bounce to 2.760 region amid ongoing US-China trade deal talks.

Main Topics in Asia

EU to propose Irish border alternative, UK cabinet pushing defiant stance - Reuters

Ireland: UK cannot unilaterally scrap border backstop - Reuters

Trump believes that the US will make deal with China's President Xi

China Commerce Ministry to impose anti-dumping tariffs on acrylic fiber from South Korea starting Nov 7

Japan’s Seko: Japan readies for resuming Iran oil imports - Reuters

Gold supported by bullish 5-week SMA ahead of US elections

RBA keeps cash rate steady at 1.50%, Aussie little changed

RBA: GDP growth revised up a little in 2018, 2019

China Vice President Qishan: China ready for US talks, sees no winner in trade war - Reuters

Dollar index holds above 38.2% Fib ahead of the US midterm elections

Key Focus Ahead

Despite the releases of the second-tier macro news from both sides of the Atlantic, the fx markets will be driven by the political headlines, with the key focus likely on the Brexit deal-related headlines and the US mid-term Congressional elections.

Amongst the economic releases, the final services PMI reports for the Euro area economies will start trickling in from 0815 GMT, followed by the Eurozone PPI data due at 10000 GMT. The speech by the ECB policymaker Lautenschlaeger is scheduled at 1200 GMT.

In the NA session, the Canadian building permits and US JOLTS job openings data will be reported among other minority reports from the US. New Zealand’s GDT price index and API crude stocks data will be also eyed for fresh trading impetus ahead of the NZ employment data slated for release at 2145 GMT.

EUR/USD: frozen ahead of the US midterm elections, falling wedge sighted on the daily

The EUR/USD is flatlined around 1.14 and may revisit the recent low of 1.13 if the Republicans secure a majority in both chambers. To start with, the markets are pricing a split Congress - Democrats to take House and Republicans to retain the Senate.

GBP/USD looking to hold onto 1.3050 ahead of Tuesday's politics-heavy news flow

Tuesday is a political day for the markets, with little functional data on the economic calendar, but a steady stream of Brexit headlines in the UK and US mid-term election results due later in the day, and the GBP/USD sees plenty of opportunities to experience broader market volatility.

Dollar Index: Big Reversal at 97.00, Midterm Elections on Tap

The conventional wisdom is that a split government would be less likely to pass meaningful economic policies, perhaps putting more pressure on the Fed to keep the economy healthy as we head into 2019 and 2020, potentially hurting the greenback.

Mid-Terms: Democrats' chances hit record highs in the FiveThirtyEight forecast, USD could suffer

With growing chances for the opposition party, the US Dollar may start retreating before results are known. It is important to stress that the level of uncertainty is quite high.

Gold Technical Analysis: Bull flag sighted on hourly chart

Gold has charted a bull flag - a continuation pattern - on the hourly chart. A move above the upper edge of the flag, currently at $1,234.30, would signal a revival of the rally from the $1,212 and would open up upside toward $1,260 (target as per the measured height method).

Source: fxstreet.com

Forex today in Asia was a quiet affair today, with most majors sticking to tight trading ranges, as the investors trade with caution in the run up to the US mid-term elections showdown later on Tuesday. The US dollar traded on the front against its major rivals, but the bulls...

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PAMMs Daily Results

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Forex Tech Targets

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EUR/USD:Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, 1.1485): Immediate bias is for EUR to probe the top of the expected 1.1330/1.1490 consolidation range.

There is not much to add to last Friday’s (02 Nov, spot at 1.1400) update wherein last Tuesday’s (31 Oct) low of 1.1299 is deemed as a short-term bottom and this level is expected to hold for the next couple of weeks. The current movement is viewed as the early stages of a sideway-trading phase even though the immediate bias is for EUR to probe the top of the expected 1.1330/1.1490 consolidation range. Looking ahead, a clear break back below 1.1330 would greatly increase the prospect for a sustained decline below the major 1.1300 support.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, spot at 1.2795): Rebound in GBP has room to extend higher to 1.3100.

There is not much to add to last Friday’s (02 Nov, spot 1.3000) update. As highlighted, despite the strong advance in GBP, we do not think the price action is the start of a major bullish reversal. That said, we see room for the current GBP strength to extend to 1.3100 but in view of the severely overbought conditions, the rally should at least temporary ease upon off from there. On the downside, 1.2840 is likely strong enough to hold any interim GBP weakness, at least for the next one week or so.

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 13 Sep 18, spot at 0.7170): Scope for AUD to test the key and critical 0.7260 resistance.

We indicated last Friday (02 Nov, spot at 0.7205) there is “scope for AUD to test the key and critical 0.7260 resistance”. AUD took a ‘sniff’ at this level but retreated quickly from a high of 0.7258. As highlighted, this 8-1/2 month declining trend-line is a ‘key and critical’ resistance and a break of this level would suggest that the 0.7021 low seen on 26 Oct is a significant mid to long-term bottom. Despite failing to break above 0.7260 on Friday and the subsequent rapid pull-back from the high, another attempt to break this level is not ruled out. Only a move back below 0.7110 (no change in ‘key support’ level from last Friday) would indicate that a short-term top is in place. Looking ahead, a break of 0.7260 would indicate that AUD is ready to move above the September’s peak of 0.7315.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 20 Aug 18, 0.6625): Scope for NZD to test the September’s peak of 0.6700.

We highlighted last Friday (02 Nov, spot at 0.6645) there is “scope for NZD to test the September’s peak of 0.6700”. NZD subsequently rose to a high of 0.6690 before pulling back quickly. From here, there is no change to our view and we continue to see chance for a ‘full test’ of 0.6700. While the prospect for a sustained break above 0.6700 is not high, a clear break of this level could lead to a quick pop to the next resistance at 0.6720. On the downside, only a move below 0.6565 (no change in level of ‘key support’) would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased.

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 09 Oct 18, 113.10): USD has moved back into a range trading phase.

There is not much to add to last Friday’s (02 Nov, spot at 112.80) update. As highlighted, after the recent whippy price action, the nearterm outlook is clouded. For now, we view the current price action as part of a 112.00/113.50 range trading phase. Looking ahead, the upside appears to be vulnerable but only a NY closing above 113.50 would suggest USD is ready to challenge 114.00.

Source: efxdata.com

EUR/USD: Immediate bias is for EUR to probe the top of the expected 1.1330/1.1490 consolidation range.;GBP/USD: Rebound in GBP has room to extend higher to 1.3100; AUD/USD: Scope for AUD to test the key and critical 0.7260 resistance...

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Forex Today

GBP-Mover_network_FXPIG

The overnight Brexit deal rhetoric prompted a bullish opening gap in the Cable, as the pound bounced to 2-week highs to near 1.3050 level vs. the greenback. The opening jump was quickly reversed and the spot gave up the 1.30 handle on fresh conflicting Brexit headlines that cited a Brexit deal is far from certain, as the uncertainty around the Irish border issue still looms.

Amongst other majors, the Antipodeans slipped on disappointing Chinese services PMI release and risk-off trades on the Asian equities. Meanwhile, the USD/JPY traded modestly flat around the 113.25 level, as the Yen was undermined by the BoJ’s Governor Kuroda’s comments on the monetary policy and inflation outlook. The EUR/USD treaded cautiously below the 1.14 handle, as the focus now shifts towards the US mid-term elections due tomorrow.

On the commodities front, both crude benchmarks traded on the back foot, in spite of the US sanctions on Iran officially kicking-off today. Gold prices on Comex were little changed near USD 1235 while copper futures on Comex dropped -1.21% to 2.780 on China growth concerns amid a skepticism over the US-China trade deal.

Main Topics in Asia

BoJ Meeting Minutes see limited focus on September's meeting

UK's PM May odds of Irish border deal "50-50" - The Guardian

Brexit deal is far from certain - The Irish Times

New Zealand Treasury: Business confidence seems to have stabilized, trade tensions hurt global growth prospects

China's Caixin services PMI drops sharply to 50.8 in October, 13-month lows

China's Xi pledges to open market to the world

BoJ’s Kuroda: BoJ will seek to exit accommodative policy if inflation reaches 2%

Asian stocks drop on concerns US and China may not reach a quick trade deal

BoJ's Kuroda: No change in central bank's stance to achieve the 2% price target

Key Focus Ahead

We are heading into a relatively light EUR macro calendar, with the UK services PMI dropping in at 0930 GMT and expected to arrive at 53.3 in October vs. 53.9 last. At the same time, the Eurozone Sentix investor confidence data is due, which is expected to show a dip in the investors' morale for the month of November amid the European political woes and weaker fundamentals.

The NA session also appears quiet, as only the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI report will be closely eyed amid a lack of relevant news from Canada. Also, the Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Poloz’s comments will remain in focus, as he is due to speak about the financial markets and implications for monetary policy at the Canada-UK Chamber of Commerce, in London.

However, the macro releases will play a second fiddle to the Brexit-related headlines and US mid-term elections anxiety, which will remain the main market drivers in the coming days.

EUR/USD: Trapped in a falling wedge ahead of the US midterm elections

A Republican victory in both houses, however, could mean more fiscal stimulus, in which case a falling wedge breakout may remain a distant dream. The caution ahead of the midterm elections will likely keep the EUR/USD flatlined today.

GBP/USD weakening from 1.3000 as Brexit headlines fail to keep bulls on track

Brexit headlines continue to drive false hope in the GBP/USD, sparking half-hearted bull runs. The UK services PMI Monday could showcase growing signs of an economic slowdown across both continents.

US Congressional election update – Uncertainty is the winner

The Congressional election has had a volatile trajectory this year. Six weeks ago the Democrats looked to ride the historical advantage for the party out of the White House in non-Presidential elections to a sweeping victory in the House with a takeover in the Senate a distinct possibility.

RBA to stick on rates, but maintain positive outlook - TD Securities

According to analysts at TD Securities, The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is more than likely to remain unmoved on interest rates for the time being.

Will the US Mid-Term Elections Boost Gold?

“We invite you to read our today’s article about the upcoming US Mid-Term Elections and find out what are the likely consequences for the gold market.”

Fed to signal gradual rate hikes on Thursday, get long EURUSD

Rather than making any immediate policy changes, the Fed will likely use the meeting to discuss the size and composition its balance sheet should have after the normalization is completed.

Source: fxstreet.com

The overnight Brexit deal rhetoric prompted a bullish opening gap in the Cable, as the pound bounced to 2-week highs to near 1.3050 level vs. the greenback. The opening jump was quickly reversed and the spot gave up the...

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Starting from market open on Monday (November 5th, 2018) the GMT offset on our trading servers will be adjusted to GMT +2.

This change will not impact open trades in any way or hinder the process of opening new trades or closing and or modifying existing trades. In any case we strongly recommend that you check the time settings on your custom Indicators and EA’s to be sure they continue operating correctly.

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FOREX Week Ahead

Strong Fundamentals Boost Dollar with US Midterms in Focus

The dollar is higher against major pairs on Friday after the release of the October U.S. non farm payrolls (NFP) report showed a massive 250,000 jobs gain and the fastest wage growth pace since 2009. US fundamentals have been solid and boosted the US dollar higher despite rising political risk ahead of the US mid-terms next week. The President used the employment data point as political leverage with Democrats leading the polls on retaking the House of representatives, and Republicans maintaining the Senate.

Central banks have kept monetary policy on hold for the most part after evaluating external risks versus economic performance. Next up is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) due to publish its cash rate and monetary policy statement on Wednesday, November 7 at 4:00 pm EST. RBNZ Governor Orr will host a press conference at 5:00 pm EST. The U.S. Federal Reserve will kick off its two day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) at the end of with it will publish its statement and Fed Funds rate. No major changes expected in the language of the statement with a highly anticipated interest rate lift happening in the December meeting.

  • RBNZ expected to hold rates at 1.75%
  • UK services PMI index to decrease slightly to 53.4
  • Fed to hold rates awaiting December hike

Dollar Higher on Data, softer on Trade Tensions Easing

The EUR/USD fell 0.22 percent on Friday after the US posted solid job growth. The single pair is trading at 1.1383 despite the easing of trade war concerns removing support for the US dollar. Fundamentals came in at the right time for the greenback as a solid jobs report gave plenty of evidence of the strength of the US economy.

The massive gain of jobs validates the Fed’s plan to keep raising interest rates with the goal of reaching a neutral rate.

European fundamentals disappointed with quarterly growth at 0.4 percent showing a lack of momentum ahead of stronger headwinds. Italian growth was stagnant which will be a talking point between Brussels and Rome as they discuss the Italian budget that was sent back for breaking fiscal limits. The Italian government is arguing that higher spending is needed for that reason alone, to boost growth, while the EU is worried of rising debt levels without a positive growth signal.

New Zealand Dollar Rises on Lower Trade Tensions

The NZD/USD lost 0.16 percent on Friday. The currency pair is trading at 0.6642 and was one of the biggest movers against the dollar during the week. The kiwi appreciated 1.85 percent after reports of a possible intervention by the central bank of China at the beginning of the week. The NZD maintained the upward momentum as trade tensions eased with comments from President Donald Trump about Chinese President Xi Jinping ahead of a meeting between the two leaders in Argentina.

There are mixed signals on how much in touch the two teams have been during the trade dispute escalation. An end to the back and forth tariffs would be a win for both sides as the current earnings season showed that US companies are beginning to feel the pinch of higher duties on China.

Oil Falls after Iran Sanction Waivers

Oil prices continued to fall with WTI losing 0.89 percent on Friday and 6.6 percent on a weekly basis. The US issued waivers to a list of Iran oil buyers stoking anxiety about oversupply of the energy market. The Trump administration had put the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on the spot during its memorable UN address and kept putting pressure on Saudi Arabia to fill the gap that would be left in the aftermath of the US sanctions against Iran.

The waivers turn that on its head, with now a lower supply disruption to global energy and higher production from Russia and Saudi Arabia. President Trump tweeted a poster with a Game of Thrones tagline “Sanctions are coming” with him in the background. The US is trying to pull a difficult balancing act by acting tough on Iran, but keep US consumers and foreign allies onside.

Gold prices fell after the massive jobs gains in the October non farm payrolls (NFP) report. The yellow metal fell 0.36 percent on Friday but its save haven asset minimised losses coming in at –0.14 in the last five trading days. The strong October NFP lent support to the US dollar and put downward pressure on the metal.

The preamble leading up to the US midterms will keep gold as a safe haven alternative for investors. After the political uncertainty is resolved after the results are finalised the yellow metal will be vulnerable to the Fed’s FOMC statement to be published on Thursday.

Source: marketpulse.com

The dollar is higher against major pairs on Friday after the release of the October U.S. non farm payrolls (NFP) report showed a massive 250,000 jobs gain and the fastest wage growth pace since 2009. US fundamentals have been solid and boosted the US dollar higher despite...

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USD/JPY struggles

JPY_brick_FXPIG

 •  Risk-on mood denting JPY’s safe-haven demand and helps find some support.


  •  The prevalent USD selling bias keeps a lid on any strong positive momentum.


  •  US NFP report to play an important role in determining the near-term trajectory.



The USD/JPY pair struggled to build on its intraday positive move and quickly retreated over 25-pips from session high level of 113.10.

The pair stalled this week's retracement slide from over three-week tops, set on Wednesday, and staged a modest recovery amid the prevalent risk-on mood.

The latest optimism over a possible solution to the US-China trade tensions boosted investors' appetite for riskier assets and weighed on the Japanese Yen's safe-haven status.

This coupled with a modest uptick in the US Treasury bond yieldshelped find some support at lower levels, albeit the ongoing US Dollar corrective slide kept a lid on any follow-through up-move.

Despite a combination of supporting factors, traders seemed reluctant to initiate any fresh bullish positions and preferred to wait on the sidelines ahead of the keenly watched US monthly jobs report.

Apart from the headline NFP print, wage growth data will influence Fed rate hike expectations for December and beyond, which might eventually help determine the pair's next leg of directional move.

Technical levels to watch

The 113.00-113.10 region might continue to act as an immediate resistance, above which the pair is likely to aim towards the 113.35-40 supply zone before eventually darting towards reclaiming the 114.00 handle. On the flip side, weakness below the 112.55-50 immediate support now seems to accelerate the fall further towards the 112.25 horizontal level en-route the 112.00 handle.

Source: fxstreet.com

The USD/JPY pair struggled to build on its intraday positive move and quickly retreated over 25-pips from session high level of 113.10. The pair stalled this week's retracement slide from over...

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FOREX Tech Targets

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, 1.1485): Negative phase has ended; immediate bias is for EUR to probe the top of the expected 1.1330/1.1490 consolidation range.

We highlighted on Wednesday (31 Oct, spot at 1.1345), “we are near an ‘inflection’ point wherein the price action in the next couple of days would determine whether EUR would continue to head south in the coming days (and possibly weeks) or stabilize to consolidate and trade sideways”. The break of the 1.1400 ‘key resistance’ indicates that the ‘negative’ phase that started about 2 weeks ago has ended and we could finally change our narrative that “EUR is still weak, but prospect for a sustained break below the year-to-date low of 1.1297 is not that high”. From here, the 1.1299 low registered on Tuesday (31 Oct) is deemed as a short-term bottom and this level is expected to hold for the next couple of weeks. The current movement is viewed as the early stages of a sideway trading phase even though the immediate bias is for EUR to probe the top of the expected 1.1330/1.1490 consolidation range.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, spot at 1.2795): Rebound in GBP has room to extend higher to 1.3100.

While we indicated yesterday (01 Nov, spot at 1.2830) that the “negative phase has ended” and expected the “recovery to extend higher”, the subsequent explosive price action that sent GBP rocketing to a high of 1.3036 came as a surprise (to put it mildly). Despite the outsized rally, we do not think the price action is the start of a major bullish reversal. That said, we see room for the current GBP strength to extend to 1.3100 but in view of the severely overbought conditions, the rally should at least temporary ease upon off from there. On the downside, 1.2840 is likely strong enough to hold any interim GBP weakness, at least for the next one week or so.

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 13 Sep 18, spot at 0.7170): Scope for AUD to test the key and critical 0.7260 resistance.

While we indicated early yesterday (01 Nov, spot at 0.7085), “looking ahead, a break of 0.7140 would suggest the start of a recovery phase that could potentially extend to 0.7200”, the ‘sped-up’ price action that sent AUD surging to a high of 0.7213 within hours came as a surprise. After making a monstrous gain of +1.88% (NY close of 0.7207), there is scope for AUD to test the key and critical 0.7260 resistance. This level is the 8-1/2 month declining trend-line (not visible in the chart below) and a clear break of this resistance would indicate that last week’s 0.7021 low could turn out to be a significant mid to long-term bottom. Meanwhile, AUD is expected to stay underpinned in the coming days with 0.7110 acting as a ‘key support’.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 20 Aug 18, 0.6625): Scope for NZD to test the September’s peak of 0.6700.

We indicated on Wednesday (31 Oct), “looking ahead, a break of 0.6580 would indicate that NZD is ready to tackle the month-to-date high at 0.6620”. Instead of ‘tackling’ 0.6620, NZD blast past this level in a hurry and surged to a high of 0.6660 (for a supersized gain of +2.10%, NY close of 0.6653). For now, the overall outlook for NZD is still deemed as neutral but the current strength has scope to test the September’s peak of 0.6700 in the coming days. Only a move below 0.6565 would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased.

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 09 Oct 18, 113.10): USD has moved back into a range trading phase.

After touching a high of 113.38 on Wed (31 Oct), USD slipped and edged below the strong 112.60 support (overnight low of 112.59). As highlighted yesterday, a break of this level is enough to indicate that upward pressure has eased. After the recent whippy price action, the near-term outlook is clouded and from here, it seems that USD has likely moved back into a range trading phase. Expected range for the next couple of weeks; 112.00/113.50.

Source: efxdata.com

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, 1.1485): Negative phase has ended; immediate bias is for EUR to probe the top of the expected 1.1330/1.1490 consolidation range.GBP/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, spot at 1.2795): Rebound in GBP has room to extend higher to 1.3100...

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Gold stages a rebound

•  A modest USD retracement prompts some aggressive short-covering move.


  •  The positive momentum seemed unaffected by the prevalent risk-on mood.


  •  Today’s release of US ISM PMI will be looked upon for some short-term impetus.

Gold staged a solid rebound on Thursday and reversed the previous session’s entire downfall to three-week lows.

The commodity stalled its recent corrective slide from over three month tops, touched last Friday, and has now snapped three consecutive days of losing streak.

The ongoing US Dollar retracement slide from 17-month tops was seen as one of the key factors prompting some aggressive short-covering move on Thursday.

With investors looking past upbeat US ADP report, traders seemed inclined to lighten USD bullish bets and eventually underpinned demand for the dollar-denominated commodity.

The up-move seemed rather unaffected by the prevalent risk-on mood, as depicted by a positive tone across equity markets and which tends to dent the precious metal's safe-haven status.

It, however, remains to be seen if bulls are able to maintain their dominant position or firming prospects for gradual Fed rate hikes beyond 2018 keeps a lid on any further up-move for the non-yielding yellow metal.

With the USD price dynamics turning out to be an exclusive driver through the early European session, traders now look forward to the release of US ISM manufacturing PMI for some short-term impetus.

The key focus, however, will be on Friday's keenly watched US monthly jobs report, popularly known as NFP, which will play an important role in determining the commodity's near-term trajectory.

Technical levels to watch

Immediate resistance is pegged near the $1226 region, above which the positive momentum could further get extended towards $1234-35 supply zone en-route multi-month tops, around the $1243 level.

On the flip side, the $1219 region (100-DMA) now seems to protect the immediate downside, which if broken might turn the commodity to slide back towards testing overnight swing low level of $1212.

Source: fxstreet.com

Gold staged a solid rebound on Thursday and reversed the previous session’s entire downfall to three-week lows. The commodity stalled its recent corrective slide from over...

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FOREX Tech Targets

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, 1.1485): EUR is still weak, but prospect for a sustained break below the year-to-date low of 1.1297 is not that high.

We have maintained the same view since last Friday (26 Oct, spot at 1.1375) wherein “EUR is still weak; but the prospect for sustained break below the year-to-date low of 1.1297 is not that high”. EUR came within 2 pips of 1.1297 yesterday but rebounded from a low of 1.1299 during NY hours. While we continue to hold the same view, we indicated yesterday (31 Oct, spot 1.1345), the odds for a break of 1.1297 has improved and would continue to improve unless EUR can break above the ‘key resistance’. The ‘key resistance’ is currently at 1.1400, slightly lower from 1.1415 yesterday. To put it another way, a NY closing below the year-to-date low would suggest EUR could continue to head south in the coming days while a break of the ‘key resistance’ would indicate that the recent weakness has stabilized and EUR has moved into a consolidation phase (and likely to trade sideways in the coming days).

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, spot at 1.2795): Negative phase has ended, GBP has moved into a correction phase.

The ‘negative’ phase in GBP that started about 2 weeks ago (see update on 19 Oct, spot at 1.3020) ended abruptly as Brexit headlines sent GBP blasting past the ‘key resistance’ at 1.2820 (GBP hit a high of 1.2831 during NY hours and extended its gain earlier this morning when more Brexit headlines crossed the wires). The sudden surge in GBP came as a surprise as after the steep decline on Tuesday (30 Oct), we were of the view that GBP could break the year-to-date low of 1.2662. The strong recovery in GBP suggests the 1.2697 low seen on Tuesday is a short-term bottom and we do not expect this level to come into the picture, at least not for the next one week or so. Despite the robust rebound, it is premature to expect a major bullish reversal. GBP has likely moved into a ‘correction’ phase and the current recovery could extend higher but at this stage, any further advance is likely limited to 1.2950.

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 13 Sep 18, spot at 0.7170): AUD is expected to trade sideways.

AUD surrendered some of the strong gains made on Tuesday (30 Oct) as it closed lower by -0.45% in NY (0.7074). The recent weak underlying tone appears to have stabilized and the current movement is viewed as part of a consolidation phase. In other words, we expect AUD to trade sideways from here, likely between 0.7040 and 0.7140. Looking ahead, a break of 0.7140 would suggest the start of a recovery phase that could potentially extend to 0.7200.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 20 Aug 18, 0.6625): Still sideways albeit within a wider range. No change in view.

NZD hit a high of 0.6572 yesterday before ending the day on a strong note (NY close of 0.6553, +0.47%). The high was not far from the top of our expected 0.6460/0.6580 consolidation range. For now, the risk of a clear break of 0.6580 is not high but after yesterday’s price action, it has clearly improved. In other words, while we continue to expect NZD to trade sideways between 0.6460 and 0.6580, we would not be surprise with a break of 0.6580. Looking ahead, a break of 0.6580 would indicate that NZD is ready to tackle the month-to-date high at 0.6620.

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 09 Oct 18, 113.10): Scope for USD to test 113.70 but unclear if up-move can be sustained.

USD touched a 3-1/2 high of 113.38 yesterday before easing off quickly. We continue to see scope for USD to test 113.70 but as highlighted yesterday, it is unclear if any up-move can be sustained. On the downside, a break of 112.60 is enough to indicate that the current upward pressure has eased. All in, the recent whippy price action has clouded the near-term outlook even though on a short-term basis, USD could test 113.70 first.

Source: efxdata.com

EUR/USD: Neutral: EUR is still weak, but prospect for a sustained break below the year-to-date low of 1.1297 is not that high; GBP/USD: Neutral -Negative phase has ended, GBP has moved into a correction phase...

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Breaking News (GBP/USD)

UK Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab says a Brexit deal is due by November 21st.

The GBP/USD is reacting positively and it jumped above 1.2800. The high so far was 1.2830.

UK Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab says a Brexit deal is due by November 21st. The GBP/USD is reacting positively and it jumped above 1.2800. The high so far was 1.2830.

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Euro yawns

EUR_Crash_FXPIG

EUR/USD has ticked lower on Wednesday, after posting losses in the past two sessions. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1334, down 0.10% on the day. On the release front, German retail sales posted a gain of 0.1%, missing the estimate of 0.5%. In the eurozone, CPI Flash Estimate and Core CPI Flash Estimate both edged higher in October, with readings of 2.2% and 1.1%, respectively. These releases both matched the estimates. As well, the eurozone unemployment rate remained pegged at 8.1%, matching the forecast. In the U.S, ADP nonfarm payrolls is expected to drop sharply to 188 thousand. The indicator kicks off a host of employment releases, highlighted by wage growth and nonfarm payrolls on Friday.

Germany is considered the bellwether of the eurozone, and recent numbers are causing some concern. German retail sales remain soft, posting a gain of 0.1%. This ended a streak of two declines. The eurozone economy is also worrying policymakers. Economic performance has softened in the third quarter, as Preliminary Flash GDP dipped to 0.2%, down from a 0.4% gain in the second quarter. On an annualized basis, Q3 growth was 1.7%, down from 2.2% in the second quarter. Much of the slowdown can be attributed to the crisis over the Italian budget, which was rejected by the European Commission since it breached EU regulations over debt limits. Is confidence waning in the eurozone economy? European Commission reported that economic confidence fell in the eurozone for a tenth straight month. The indicator dropped sharply to 109.8, down from 110.9 points a month earlier.  Confidence is lower in the manufacturing and services industries, and retail services managers reported “much grimmer views on the present and expected business situation”. Economic confidence has fallen in Germany, France and Italy, which could translate into further headwinds for the euro in the fourth quarter.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Monday that she would not seek re-election as chair of the Christian Democrats. Merkel made the announcement after her party had a poor result in a regional election. The news sent the euro lower briefly and pushed German bond yields higher. Merkel said she will stay on as Chancellor until her term ends in 2021, but her announcement is another dent in the Iron Lady’s authority, which has diminished as her CDU party has slipped in popularity. Eurozone confidence indicators have looked sluggish recently, and Merkel’s decision to slowly wind up her political career will not help matters.

Source: marketpulse.com

EUR/USD has ticked lower on Wednesday, after posting losses in the past two sessions. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1334, down 0.10% on the day. On the release front, German retail sales posted a gain of 0.1%, missing the...

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ECB’s Visco

Bank of Italy Governor and ECB governing council member Ignazio Visco was out on the wires in the last hour, commenting on Italy's debt situation and said:

  •  Italy cannot narrow the growth gap with EU with higher spending.

  •  Italy’s slow growth caused by companies’ low productivity.

  •  Economic slowdown more marked than the rest of the EU.

  •  Policies guaranteeing balanced financial conditions are needed to protect savings.

  •  Foreign investors sold 82 billion Euros in sovereign bonds in the May-August period.

  •  Widening of Italy/Germany spread reflects the risk of default and redenomination in equal measures.

  •  Spreads impacted by doubts about Italy's policies, EU relations.

  •  If the rise in Italian state bonds is not reabsorbed it will cost over 5 billion Euros in 2019.

  •  The rise in funding costs and depreciation of banking shares will make access to credit harder for families and companies.

  •  Italian debt is sustainable but the determination to keep it such must be clear.

  •  GDP growth this year will be 1%, lower in 2019, without taking into account budget measures.

  •  Italy can cope with the end of low interest rates, provided it sticks to the fiscal policy aimed at budgetary stability.

  •  Italy must sell in 2019 400 billion Euros in state securities to refinance maturing debt and cover year's deficit.

Source: fxstreet.com

Bank of Italy Governor and ECB governing council member Ignazio Visco was out on the wires in the last hour, commenting on Italy's debt situation and said: Italy cannot narrow the growth gap with EU with higher spending...

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FOREX TECH TARGETS

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, 1.1485): EUR is still weak, but prospect for a sustained break below the year-to-date low of 1.1297 is not that high.

EUR closed on a soft note yesterday (NY close of 1.1344, -0.23%) but last week’s 1.1332 low is still intact. After showing signs of waning, short-term downward momentum has picked up again. For now, we are holding on to the same view that “EUR is still weak; the prospect for sustained break below the year-to-date low of 1.1297 is not that high”. However, the odds for a break of 1.1297 has improved and would continue to improve unless EUR can break above 1.1415 (‘key resistance’ previously at 1.1450) within these 1 to 2 days. In other words, we are near an ‘inflection’ point wherein the price action in the next couple of days would determine whether EUR would continue to head south in the coming days (and possibly weeks) or stabilize to consolidate and trade sideways.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, spot at 1.2795): More than even odds for a break of 1.2662 year’s low.

After trading in a relatively quiet manner for a couple of days, GBP staged a sudden and sharp decline that easily cracked the 1.2750 support (in reaction to S&P dire warnings in the event of a no-deal Brexit). While we have held a ‘negative’ view on GBP for more than a week (see update on 19 Oct, spot at 1.3020), we previously apportioned low odds for a sustained break of 1.2750. After yesterday’s price action, the focus has shifted to the year-to-date low at 1.2662. In view of the resurgence in downward momentum, the odds for a break of this level are more than even. All in, GBP is expected to stay under pressure until the ‘key resistance’ at 1.2820 is taken out (level was at 1.2890 yesterday). Looking ahead, a clear break of 1.2660 would suggest GBP has entered a bearish phase and could extend its weakness to 1.2590, possibly 1.2500.

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 13 Sep 18, spot at 0.7170): Prospect for a move to 0.7000 is not high.

While AUD gained +0.69% yesterday (NY close of 0.7106), it is too early to expect a sustained recovery. As highlighted on Monday (29 Oct, spot at 0.7095), only a break of 0.7140 would suggest the current mild downward pressure has eased (overnight high has been 0.7122). Meanwhile, the near-term bias is still tilted to the downside even though the prospect for a move to the major 0.7000 level is not high. Looking ahead, a break of 0.7140 would suggest the start of a recovery phase that could potentially extend to 0.7200.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 20 Aug 18, 0.6625): Still sideways albeit within a wider range.

NZD hit a high of 0.6572 yesterday before ending the day on a strong note (NY close of 0.6553, +0.47%). The high was not far from the top of our expected 0.6460/0.6580 consolidation range. For now, the risk of a clear break of 0.6580 is not high but after yesterday’s price action, it has clearly improved. In other words, while we continue to expect NZD to trade sideways between 0.6460 and 0.6580, we would not be surprise with a break of 0.6580. Looking ahead, a break of 0.6580 would indicate that NZD is ready to tackle the month-to-date high at 0.6620.

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 09 Oct 18, 113.10): Scope for USD to test 113.70 but unclear if up-move can be sustained.

While we indicated yesterday “the odds for further USD weakness have diminished”, the subsequent strong rally in USD that hit a 3-week high of 113.09 was clearly not expected (note that USD extended its gain after NY close). Short-term momentum is clearly strong but at this stage, it is unclear to us whether USD can maintain the current strength in the days ahead. From here, we see scope for USD to test the 113.70 resistance but the probability of a sustained move above this level is not high for now. All in, USD is expected to stay underpinned as long as the ‘key support’ at 112.60 is intact.

Source: efxdata.com

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, 1.1485): EUR is still weak, but prospect for a sustained break below the year-to-date low of 1.1297 is not that high. GBP/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, spot at 1.2795): More than even odds for a break of 1.2662 year’s low...

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PAMMs DAILY UPDATE

PAMMs_FX_MANAGED _ACCOUNTS_FXPPIG- 30.10.2018

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FOREX Tech Targets

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, 1.1485): EUR is still weak, but prospect for a sustained break below the year-to-date low of 1.1297 is not that high.

EUR traded in a muted manner yesterday and held within last Friday’s range (an ‘inside day’). The price action offers no fresh clue and while the ‘negative’ phase in EUR that started more than a week ago is still deemed as intact (see update on 18 Oct, spot at 1.1505), we continue to see low risk for a sustained break of the next support at 1.1297 (year-to-date low). That said, only a move above the 1.1450 ‘key resistance’ (no change in level) would indicate that the ‘negative’ phase has ended and a short-term bottom is in place. Meanwhile, EUR could continue to consolidate and trade sideways at these lower levels for the next couple of days.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, spot at 1.2795): GBP is searching and possibly close to making a short-term bottom.

There is not much to add to yesterday’s (29 Oct, spot at 1.2830) update. As indicated, the recent price action suggests GBP is likely searching and is possibly close to finding a short-term bottom. However, only a break of the 1.2890 ‘key resistance’ (no change in level) would indicate that the ‘negative’ phase that started more than a week ago (see update on 19 Oct, spot at 1.3020) has ended. Until then, GBP could dip towards the 1.2750 support but we apportion low odds for a sustained move below this level (next support is at 1.2700 followed by the year’s low at 1.2662).

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 13 Sep 18, spot at 0.7170): Prospect for a move to 0.7000 is not high. No change in view, see update from yesterday below.

AUD staged a brief decline last Friday and rebounded strongly from a low of 0.7021 to close higher for the day (NY close of 0.7087, +0.11%). After several days of ‘quiet’ price action, the sudden burst in volatility came as a surprise. In recent updates, we expected AUD “to trade with a slight downward bias” and were of the view that a break of the 0.7041 year-to-date low would shift the focus to 0.7000. This scenario is still intact but after last Friday’s price action, the prospect for a move to 0.7000 is not high. Meanwhile, the bias is still on the downside and only break of 0.7140 would suggest the current mild downward pressure has eased.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 20 Aug 18, 0.6625): Still sideways albeit within a wider range. No change in view.

We expected NZD to trade sideways since early last week (23 Oct, spot at 0.6560) and the break of the bottom of the anticipated 0.6490/0.6580 consolidation range last Friday came as a surprise. However, the decline was not sustained as NZD rebounded strongly from a low of 0.6466 to close largely unchanged for the day (NY close of 0.6525, +0.01%). The price action is more akin to an ‘expansion in range’ instead of the start of a sustained decline. In other words, we continue to hold a neutral stance and expect NZD to trade sideways in the coming days, albeit within a wider 0.6460/0.6580 range.

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 09 Oct 18, 113.10): Diminished odds for further USD weakness.

While we expect USD to weaken further to 111.20, we warned yesterday (29 Oct, spot at 111.90) “this level may not come into the picture so soon”. That said, the robust rebound in USD yesterday that hit a high of 112.55 during NY hours came as a surprise. The high is not far from our 112.65 ‘key resistance’ and a break of this level would indicate that the current downward pressure has eased (and that last Friday’s 111.36 low is the extent of the current weak phase in USD). In other words, the odds further USD weakness have diminished. Looking ahead, a break of 112.65 would not change the current overall neutral outlook but would suggest USD has moved back into a consolidation phase.

Source: efxdata.com

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, 1.1485): EUR is still weak, but prospect for a sustained break below the year-to-date low of 1.1297 is not that high. GBP/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, spot at 1.2795): GBP is searching and possibly close to making a short-term bottom...

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FOREX Trading Wisdom

Trading Rule #2: Pay Attention to Volume Climaxes...

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EUR/USD to visit of 1.1315/01

In opinion of Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, the pair could still drop and test the 1.1315/01 band.

Key Quotes

EUR/USD remains directly offered below the 20 day ma at 1.1482. There is scope for a retest of the 1.1315 200 week ma and 1.1301 recent low. This is expected to hold the down side. We will attempt to buy this dip”.

“Initial resistance is the 20 day ma and this guards the 1.1623 mid October high”.

“Below 1.1300 we have a pivot line back to 2015 which is located at 1.1264 this week . This guards the 61.8% retracement at 1.1185”

Source: fxstreet.com

EUR/USD remains directly offered below the 20 day ma at 1.1482. There is scope for a retest of the 1.1315 200 week ma and 1.1301 recent low. This is expected to hold the down side.

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Forex Today (30.10.2018)

Forex Today saw a major turnaround in tandem with the risk sentiment, as the US President Trump’s optimistic comments offered a fresh breath of life in the Asian markets. The Asian equities staged a comeback, led by China stocks and lift the demand for the risk assets alongside.

Hence, the higher-yielding currencies such as the Antipodeans, pound shot higher at the expense of the safe-havens such as the Yen, US dollar and the Swiss Franc. The Euro and CAD also traded firmer heading into the Eurozone GDP figures and BOC Governor Poloz’s speech due later on Tuesday. Amongst the commodities, gold and oil prices traded modestly flat while copper prices traded weaker below 2.75 level.

Main Topics in Asia

US steel tariffs spark a flurry of WTO cases - Reuters

Japan's Unemployment Rate ticks down to 2.3%

Australian Building Permits better than expected, +3.3% for September

Japan Fin Min Aso: Monetary easing has many positive effects

PBOC sets CNY fix at weakest since May 2008, skips OMO for third straight day

RBA's Bullock: transition to higher capital levels coming to an end for major banks

US tax cut fails to boost investment: Xinhua      

Asian stocks see a late-day rally, China hits the green as investors return to the fold

Key Focus Ahead

We have a busy EUR macro calendar, kicking-off with the Swiss KOF leading indicator at 0800 GMT, followed by the German employment data and Italy’s Q3 GDP figures at 0900 GMT, which will be closely eyed, given the Italian budget woes. Also, in focus remains the Eurozone Q3 flash GDP estimate due at 1000 GMT that is seen decelerating to 1.8% on an annualized basis. At the same, the Eurozone confidence numbers will be released, keeping the EUR traders on their toes heading into the German prelim CPI release at 1300 GMT. Meanwhile, from the UK docket, the CBI Distributive Trades Survey - Realized (MoM) for Oct will drop in at 1100 GMT.

The NA session is a thin showing data-wise, as the US docket has no first-tier macro news to offer. However, the BOC Governor Poloz speech at 1930 GMT will draw some attention ahead of the US API weekly crude stocks data slated for release at 2030 GMT. Apart from the data, the US-China trade-related headlines and European political developments will continue to drive the fx markets today.

EUR/USD: 5-day EMA is a key resistance, focus on Eurozone GDP & German CPI

An above-forecast German CPI and upbeat Eurozone GDP could boost demand for the EUR. However, the prospects of a convincing move above the 5-day EMA would drop sharply if the Italy-German yield spread spikes, representing rising concerns about Italy's budget.  

GBP/USD: Hammond speech does little to bolster bulls, markets remain focused on Brexit

Tuesday is a data-light day for the Sterling, leaving investors to fret over the lack of momentum on Brexit proceedings, through knock-on volatility could be expected towards the London midday when Europe sees GDP figures at 10:00 GMT.

Will the BOJ Bring a Trick or a Treat for GBP/JPY?

Kicking off the busy turn-of-the-month week for economic data, the Bank of Japan will conclude its monetary policy meeting early in Wednesday’s Asian session.

Source: fxstreet.com

Forex Today saw a major turnaround in tandem with the risk sentiment, as the US President Trump’s optimistic comments offered a fresh breath of life in the Asian markets. The Asian equities staged a comeback, led by China stocks and lift the demand for...

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Forex Today

Forex Today witnessed two-way business in Asia on the first trading day of the week, with the risks sentiment driving the market sentiment amid a sell-off in the Chinese stocks, as China slowdown fears begin to bite again. Amidst risk-aversion, the US dollar traded well bid across the board, lending some support to the USD/JPY recovery, as the Yen markets cheer upbeat Japanese retail trade data.

However, the Antipodeans staged a solid comeback and tested highs towards the Asia closing, in the wake of a rally in the Aussie and NZ stocks while oil and gold prices traded modestly flat, having little impact on the commodity currencies. Meanwhile, both the EUR and GBP traded modestly flat, as the sentiment was dented by the German political uncertainty and looming Brexit woes.

Main Topics in Asia

Over the weekend: German election results putting pressure on Merkel

Brazil elections: Bolsonaro elected as president – Standard Chartered

Austrian FinMin Loeger: Greek debt crisis will not repeat itself in Italy

French FinMIn Le Maire: Eurozone is not sufficiently armed to face a new economic/ financial crisis

UK's Exchequer Hammond: May have to extend austerity measures if needed - Sky News

Japan Retail Trade comes in mostly better-than-expected, annualized in at 2.1%

PBOC drains 120 billion Yuan from the market

Asian stocks trade mixed after bearish close in S&P 500

China CommerceMin: To impose anti-dumping tax on some chemicals from US, Saudi, Malaysia and Thailand    

Key Focus Ahead

Heading into a new week, the EUR calendar for Monday remains data-light, with nothing of relevance, except for the UK mortgage approvals and CBI Distributive trade survey.  The UK Annual Budget report will be published by the UK Chancellor Hammond, who will deliver the budget speech around 1530 GMT.  Also, the European Commission’s Eurozone economic growth forecasts report will be released by 1000 GMT, which could offer some incentives to the EUR traders.

The NA session headlines the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index (YoY) for the month of September, which is seen arriving at 2%. The FOMC member Evans speech is due at 1345 GMT, followed by the Dallas Fed manufacturing business index at 1430 GMT.

EUR/USD: Risk-off and political uncertainty in Germany may keep EUR under pressure

The EUR/USD picked up a bid on Friday, courtesy of broad-based losses in the greenback. The USD may remain bid on risk aversion and political uncertainty in Germany could keep the EUR under pressure.

GBP/USD holding above 1.2800 ahead of UK budget speech, US consumer spending data

Monday is slated to see the latest Annual Budget from the Exchequer Chancellor Phillip Hammond, and the chancellor is expected to unveil key details from the UK's budgetary outlook, somewhere around 15:30 GMT.

Gold: bulls have eyes set on $1,248 target

Spot gold is making higher lows even when the dollar is strong, picking up the safe haven flows following the latest drop in global equities.

GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: Song remains the same as the MPC is dazed and confused with Brexit uncertainties

With the Bank of England expected to remain dazed and confused with Brexit uncertainty and to hold back in terms of action, the US economic development is expected to support the US Dollar further in the upcoming week with the US labor market report expected …

Asia week ahead: Eyes on China - ING

Analysts at ING Bank explained that there will be a lot of focus on China data this week.

The week ahead: US jobs, BoE and BoJ headlining - Nomura

"The week ahead We expect a healthy 175k gain in nonfarm payrollemployment, solid wage growth and moderating manufacturer sentiment.”

Source: fxstreet.com

Forex Today witnessed two-way business in Asia on the first trading day of the week, with the risks sentiment driving the market sentiment amid a sell-off in the Chinese stocks, as China slowdown fears begin to bite again. Amidst risk-aversion, the US dollar traded well bid across the...

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Forex Trading Wisdom

FOREX_TRADING_WISDOM_Rule#1_FXPIG

...Trading Rule #1: Avoid the "To get the money back" mindset...

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Forex Tech Targets

FOREX_Tech-Targets_FXPIG

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, 1.1485): EUR is still weak, but prospect for a sustained break below the year-to-date low of 1.1297 is not that high.

After holding a ‘negative’ EUR view for more than a week (see update on 18 Oct, spot at 1.1505), we warned last Friday (26 Oct, spot at 1.1375), “short-term indicators are at severely oversold levels and it is unlikely EUR can maintain the pace of its current decline”. We added, “a dip below 1.1350 is not ruled out but at this stage, the prospect for a sustained break below the year-to-date low of 1.1297 is not that high”. EUR dipped to a low of 1.1332 during London hours on Friday before staging a robust rebound and closed higher for the day (NY close of 1.1401, +0.23%). The price action reinforces our view and we continue to see low risk for a break of 1.1297. That said, only a move above the 1.1450 ‘key resistance’ (no change in level) would indicate that the ‘negative’ phase has ended and a short-term bottom is in place.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, spot at 1.2795): GBP is searching and possibly close to making a short-term bottom.

There is not much to add to last Friday’s (26 Oct, spot at 1.2820) update. As highlighted, any weakness below the strong 1.2790 support could be limited to 1.2750. GBP subsequently dropped to a low of 1.2777 before rebounding strongly and broke a 4-day losing streak, albeit not by much (NY close of 1.2827, +0.07%). Until the ‘key resistance’ at 1.2890 (level previously at 1.2920) is taken out, another dip closer to 1.2750 is not ruled but after last Friday’s price action, it seems increasingly likely that GBP is searching and possibly close to finding a short-term bottom.

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 13 Sep 18, spot at 0.7170): Prospect for a move to 0.7000 is not high.

AUD staged a brief decline last Friday and rebounded strongly from a low of 0.7021 to close higher for the day (NY close of 0.7087, +0.11%). After several days of ‘quiet’ price action, the sudden burst in volatility came as a surprise. In recent updates, we expected AUD “to trade with a slight downward bias” and were of the view that a break of the 0.7041 year-to-date low would shift the focus to 0.7000. This scenario is still intact but after last Friday’s price action, the prospect for a move to 0.7000 is not high. Meanwhile, the bias is still on the downside and only break of 0.7140 would suggest the current mild downward pressure has eased.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 20 Aug 18, 0.6625): Still sideways albeit within a wider range.

We expected NZD to trade sideways since early last week (23 Oct, spot at 0.6560) and the break of the bottom of the anticipated 0.6490/0.6580 consolidation range last Friday came as a surprise. However, the decline was not sustained as NZD rebounded strongly from a low of 0.6466 to close largely unchanged for the day (NY close of 0.6525, +0.01%). The price action is more akin to an ‘expansion in range’ instead of the start of a sustained decline. In other words, we continue to hold a neutral stance and expect NZD to trade sideways in the coming days, albeit within a wider 0.6460/0.6580 range.

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 09 Oct 18, 113.10): Focus is at 111.20 even though level may not come into picture so soon.

We detected the softness in the underlying tone in USD last Thursday (25 Oct, spot at 112.10) and highlighted, “a break of 111.80 would suggest further USD weakness to 111.20”. USD cracked 111.80 during NY hours last Friday and plummeted to a low of 111.36. The decline was however short-lived as it staged a strong rebound from the low but still closed markedly weaker for the day (NY close of 111.89, -0.45%). From here, the focus is at 111.20 even though this level may not come into the picture so soon. Only a break of 112.65 (‘key resistance’ previously at 112.80) would indicate that the current downward pressure has eased.

Source:efxdata.com

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, 1.1485): EUR is still weak, but prospect for a sustained break below the year-to-date low of 1.1297 is not that high. GBP/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, spot at 1.2795): GBP is searching and possibly close to making a short-term bottom...

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FOREX WEEK AHEAD

Puzzle_ USD_ FXPIG


Dollar Pays Heavy Price for Equity Sell Off

The US dollar was lower against most major pairs on Friday. The greenback dropped as investors flocked to safe havens away from the US currency. Trade war concerns and its impact on US companies have triggered a massive sell off in equities. The US dollar is on the back foot despite strong growth as evidenced by the release of the flash GDP for the third quarter that showed a 3.5 percent gain beating expectations.

The end of October and the start of November bring a packed weekly economic calendar. Central bank action and employment data will guide markets that are still sensible to geopolitics.

  • Bank of Japan to avoid Halloween surprise
  • Bank of England to keep monetary policy on hold until Brexit clarity
  • US economy expected to have added 200,000 jobs in October

Euro to Underperform as Italian Budget Drama Continues

The EUR/USD lost 0.93 percent in the last five trading sessions. The single pair is priced at 1.1406 after a strong Friday saw funds exit the US dollar to look for safety elsewhere. European fundamentals make this a short term strategy as Italian budget concerns with neither side backing down, and the ongoing saga of Brexit negotiations are major headwinds for the currency.

Fears of an economic slowdown in the US proved to be premature, but investors worry that the boost from Trump tax cuts is evaporating. Stocks have been vulnerable as the U.S. Federal Reserve stands firm on its plans to hike one more time this year and three or four in 2019 on its path to rate normalisation. US-China relations have not improved and earning reports have started to reflect the impact of tariffs on China.

The growth gap between US and Europe continues to widen, but for the most part has been already priced into the EUR/USD. The political situation where the European Council is opening too many fronts is a concerns for investors. Italy and the United Kingdom are asking for too much in the views of the EC, but it seems there is no clear middle ground in Italian budget negotiations or the trade deal after Brexit.

Brexit top of Mind for Sterling with BoE and Autumn Budget

The GBP/USD lost 1.97 percent during the week. Sterling is trading at 1.2832 versus the dollar. The equity market sell off did help the pound gain 0.11 percent on Friday. The risk event calendar in England is stacked with the Autumn Budget on Monday and the Bank of England (BoE) super Thursday not to mention the ongoing Brexit negotiations.

The lack of progress in the short term on Brexit will keep the BoE from making any changes to its monetary policy. A no-deal scenario is still very much alive and will limit what Governor Carney can propose, until those unknowns are sorted. The next rate hike in the UK could come until summer of 2019.

Stock Sell Off Puts Loonie Back in Defensive Mode

The Canadian dollar was the only major currency to not advance on the weakened dollar. The loonie lost 0.17 percent on Friday and with that would give back most of the gains earlier in the week and only end up 0.13 percent ahead of the greenback.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) delivered an expected 25 basis points rate lift on Wednesday, putting the currency pair near the 1.30 price level, but a combination of risk aversion and strong US data combined to once again put the loonie over 1.31 ahead of next week.

Employment data in the US and Canada will be the highlight for the pair. The US is forecasted to keep its steady pace of growth with employment its biggest pillar. The US could gain more than 200,000 jobs and wages see a rise of 0.2 percent, validating the Fed’s tightening policy and push the greenback higher.

Canadian jobs will prove crucial as the BoC was more hawkish than anticipated at its press conference following the rate hike announcement. Monthly GDP and raw material prices on Wednesday will precede the jobs announcement and together they will paint a clearer picture on the economy.

Oil Losses for Third Straight Week

Crude prices were higher on Friday but continue to fall as supply anxiety with conflicting Saudi Arabia comments and downward pressure from lower growth forecasts around the globe.

The equity market sell off also dictated the direction for oil to follow. Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other major producers are starting to worry about over supply as their production cut agreement is coming to and end, but as the same time global energy demand might be on the decline.

Gold Rises as Safe Haven Appeal Persists

Gold rose 0.28 on Friday as the stock market sell off hit the US dollar. US fundamentals continue to show a strong economy, but investors are still anxious about falling stocks and headed towards the safety of gold.

Gold has recouped its place as a safe haven after six months of losses. The Fed’s monetary policy and trade disputes have made stock markets drop and with investors liquidating long positions they have chosen the yellow metal as a destination. November if full of geopolitical risk events with US midterms, Italian budget and Brexit all in the agenda. Gold is expected to benefit from rising uncertainty, but is sensitive to a correction once the dust has settled.

Source: marketpulse.com

The US dollar was lower against most major pairs on Friday. The greenback dropped as investors flocked to safe havens away from the US currency. Trade war concerns and its impact on US companies have triggered a massive sell off in equities. The US dollar is on the back foot despite...

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