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PIG TODAY-USD, EUR, JPY, CHF, CAD, AUD, NZD: Weekly Outlook - Morgan Stanley

 

 

USD: Data Catalysts for USD Strength. Bullish.

We believe the USD is moving back to its long-term bullish trend. The closing US output gap and its implications on monetary policy should move rate and yield differentials in favour of the USD. Compared to this time last year, the markets are pricing in fewer rate hikes for the following year (markets currently pricing 21bp for 2017), suggesting that the risk/reward is skewed to the upside where there is more potential for rate hikes to be priced in, supporting the USD. This week sees many important data releases and events. Our economists' forecasts are higher than consensus for many of the data points, providing catalysts for USD to strengthen. We expect USD strength to be most pronounced against low-yielding currencies (low-yielding AxJ, JPY and SEK) while high yield EM currencies with good fundamental stories may continue to perform well.

EUR: EUR Crosses Stay Supported. Neutral.

Recent commentary from ECB officials did not reveal any new information and continued to emphasise that any policy decision will be made in the December meeting. We continue to expect EURUSD to be driven by the USD leg, which would mean the pair is likely to stay pressured given our projection for USD strength. On the crosses, however, EUR is likely to remain supported, particularly against JPY, GBP and SEK. Should global and EMU inflation continue rising, ECB tapering talk could come back into focus and the EMU yield curve could steepen, providing support for EUR crosses.

JPY: Staying Bearish. Bearish.

We continue to expect USDJPY to strengthen and would view any pullback as a buying opportunity. With the BoJ's yield curve management and steepening of global yield curves, financial institutions' profitability may improve over time, increasing their willingness to lend domestically and abroad, which would weaken the JPY. Market consensus remains bullish JPY with long positioning still large. Should sentiment start to shift, an unwind of these positions could generate a significant reversal in USDJPY to the upside. Additionally, given the increasing hedging costs, Japanese investors may now invest abroad on an FX-unhedged basis, further weakening the JPY. This week, we watch CPI and BoJ rates decision.

CHF: Watching Interventions. Neutral.

We expect EURCHF to remain within its trading range of 1.08-1.10, while USDCHF has the potential to test 1.01 in the coming weeks on the back of USD strength. With the move higher in global yields and potential for increased pricing of Fed hikes, we think USD strength will be more pronounced against low-yielding currencies such as CHF. CHF could strengthen should risk appetite be hit from a rise in volatility arising from a steepening ofyield curves, but with the SNB standing ready to intervene, the upside for CHF may be limited. This week, we watch sight deposits data to look for any signs of SNB participation in the sharp move higher in EURCHF when it traded around 1.08 in the past week.

CAD: Staying Neutral. Neutral.

In the latest meeting, the BoC revised its inflation and growth forecasts down and changed their wording on inflation risks to be "roughly balanced", which was less dovish than the markets expected. However, in the press conference, Governor Poloz conveyed that the bank actively discussed the possibility of adding more stimulus, though it would require a shock or series of shocks for them to ease further. We think this means that the BoC is willing to ease if the economy takes another dip, but this would only be warranted if there are major shocks such as a significant drop in oil, severe slowdown in the US economy or a US presidential outcome that could change NAFTA. For now, these scenarios look unlikely in ourview, suggesting the BoC should stay on hold. With markets pricing in 6bp of rate cuts, we think this is fair and thus stay neutral on CAD.

AUD: Strategic Short. Bearish.

We entered a strategic short AUDUSD position* after the pair rallied following the stronger than expected CPI print. China's property sector is at risk of slowing in the coming quarters given the authorities are starting to show signs of clamping down on the housing market, which would reduce iron ore imports from Australia. Australia's labour market also deteriorated further in September, which was a concern for the RBA's new governor. This, coupled with mining investment staying weak and the housing market expected to slow next year, means the RBA may need to cut rates to stimulate the economy. This week, we watch the RBA rates decision and building approvals. Markets reduced the pricing of RBA rate cuts quite substantially after the strong CPI print, suggesting that any RBA guidance towards more easing or a miss in the housing data can cause AUD to sell off.

NZD: More Potential for Correction. Bearish.

Within G10, NZD has the largest potential for correction in an environment of USD strength and steepening yield curves, in ourview. With markets increasing pricing of a Fed hike, central bank policy divergence and steepening global yield curves could increase volatility, leading to risk aversion reflexes reducing cross-border flows. Being a currency requiring foreign funding, NZD could come under pressure. The RBNZ could also be more open to rate cuts given inflation remains low and the Bank pointed to slower house price appreciation in its latest statement, though markets have already priced in 21bp cut for November and they would need to signal more easing for NZD to weaken materially. We remain short NZD/USD in our portfolio.

Source: efxnews.com

 

 

USD: Data Catalysts for USD Strength. Bullish.

We believe the USD is moving back to its long-term bullish trend. The closing US output gap and its implications on monetary policy should move rate and yield differentials in favour of the USD. Compared to this time last year, the markets are pricing in fewer rate hikes for the following year (markets currently pricing 21bp for 2017), suggesting that the risk/reward is skewed to the upside where there is more potential for rate hikes to be priced in, supporting the USD. This week sees many important data releases and events. Our economists' forecasts are higher than consensus for many of the data points, providing catalysts for USD to strengthen. We expect USD strength to be most pronounced against low-yielding currencies (low-yielding AxJ, JPY and SEK) while high yield EM currencies with good fundamental stories may continue to perform well.

EUR: EUR Crosses Stay Supported. Neutral.

Recent commentary from ECB officials did not reveal any new information and continued to emphasise that any policy decision will be made in the December meeting. We continue to expect EURUSD to be driven by the USD leg, which would mean the pair is likely to stay pressured given our projection for USD strength. On the crosses, however, EUR is likely to remain supported, particularly against JPY, GBP and SEK. Should global and EMU inflation continue rising, ECB tapering talk could come back into focus and the EMU yield curve could steepen, providing support for EUR crosses.

JPY: Staying Bearish. Bearish.

We continue to expect USDJPY to strengthen and would view any pullback as a buying opportunity. With the BoJ's yield curve management and steepening of global yield curves, financial institutions' profitability may improve over time, increasing their willingness to lend domestically and abroad, which would weaken the JPY. Market consensus remains bullish JPY with long positioning still large. Should sentiment start to shift, an unwind of these positions could generate a significant reversal in USDJPY to the upside. Additionally, given the increasing hedging costs, Japanese investors may now invest abroad on an FX-unhedged basis, further weakening the JPY. This week, we watch CPI and BoJ rates decision.

CHF: Watching Interventions. Neutral.

We expect EURCHF to remain within its trading range of 1.08-1.10, while USDCHF has the potential to test 1.01 in the coming weeks on the back of USD strength. With the move higher in global yields and potential for increased pricing of Fed hikes, we think USD strength will be more pronounced against low-yielding currencies such as CHF. CHF could strengthen should risk appetite be hit from a rise in volatility arising from a steepening ofyield curves, but with the SNB standing ready to intervene, the upside for CHF may be limited. This week, we watch sight deposits data to look for any signs of SNB participation in the sharp move higher in EURCHF when it traded around 1.08 in the past week.

CAD: Staying Neutral. Neutral.

In the latest meeting, the BoC revised its inflation and growth forecasts down and changed their wording on inflation risks to be "roughly balanced", which was less dovish than the markets expected. However, in the press conference, Governor Poloz conveyed that the bank actively discussed the possibility of adding more stimulus, though it would require a shock or series of shocks for them to ease further. We think this means that the BoC is willing to ease if the economy takes another dip, but this would only be warranted if there are major shocks such as a significant drop in oil, severe slowdown in the US economy or a US presidential outcome that could change NAFTA. For now, these scenarios look unlikely in ourview, suggesting the BoC should stay on hold. With markets pricing in 6bp of rate cuts, we think this is fair and thus stay neutral on CAD.

AUD: Strategic Short. Bearish.

We entered a strategic short AUDUSD position* after the pair rallied following the stronger than expected CPI print. China's property sector is at risk of slowing in the coming quarters given the authorities are starting to show signs of clamping down on the housing market, which would reduce iron ore imports from Australia. Australia's labour market also deteriorated further in September, which was a concern for the RBA's new governor. This, coupled with mining investment staying weak and the housing market expected to slow next year, means the RBA may need to cut rates to stimulate the economy. This week, we watch the RBA rates decision and building approvals. Markets reduced the pricing of RBA rate cuts quite substantially after the strong CPI print, suggesting that any RBA guidance towards more easing or a miss in the housing data can cause AUD to sell off.

NZD: More Potential for Correction. Bearish.

Within G10, NZD has the largest potential for correction in an environment of USD strength and steepening yield curves, in ourview. With markets increasing pricing of a Fed hike, central bank policy divergence and steepening global yield curves could increase volatility, leading to risk aversion reflexes reducing cross-border flows. Being a currency requiring foreign funding, NZD could come under pressure. The RBNZ could also be more open to rate cuts given inflation remains low and the Bank pointed to slower house price appreciation in its latest statement, though markets have already priced in 21bp cut for November and they would need to signal more easing for NZD to weaken materially. We remain short NZD/USD in our portfolio.

Source: efxnews.com

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Market Analysis
Forex Today: Coronavirus clobbers markets, dollar on the defensive (for now), Bitcoin battered
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