something interesting

<  BACK TO Market Analysis

Week Ahead US Presidential Election to Dominate Markets

 

 

Dollar Awaits Results of U.S. Elections

The USD is lower across the board versus major currencies as the U.S. election enters its final stretch. The FBI investigation into Secretary Clinton’s emails has eroded her lead in the polls and the battle for swing states will be crucial. The eyes of the world will be watching as votes start coming in on November 8.

The U.S. Federal Reserve held rates unchanged on Wednesday as expected. The proximity to the elections kept odds of a rate hike on November’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The CME FedWatch tool is showing a 71.5 percent probability of a rate hike on December 14 based on Fed Fund futures prices. Economic fundamentals have taken a backseat awaiting the outcome of the 2016 American presidential elections.

A clear victory from either candidate would remove uncertainty and reduce short-term volatility as the leadership vacuum would be filled. The USD would appreciate after being under the pressure of the final days ahead of the vote. There are different market scenarios depending on the actual make up of the outcome, but the worst case scenario for now would be a too-close-to-call result. A vote count that is not enough to give a decisive victory to either candidate would keep the leadership vacuum for longer triggering higher volatility in the markets.

The EUR/USD gained 1.702 percent in the last week. The single currency is trading at 1.1118 days ahead of the U.S. election. The combative campaigns to win the votes of American citizens will come to an end on November 8. The uncertainty surrounding the outcome has left the market in a volatile state, with little attention given to economic fundamentals until the issue of who will be the next U.S. president is settled. The fact that Donald Trump is not guaranteed to accept the results of the elections adds another layer of anxiety to an already bumpy road in 2016.

West Texas has lost 10.28 percent in the last week. The price of crude is trading at $43.86 and is near weekly lows. Energy is on a 6 day losing streak after the biggest factor pushing prices up this year is coming apart at the seams. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreement to cut production cut came as a surprise after the meeting in Algiers is now seriously in doubt. The rift between OPEC members appeared to have been mended, but ahead of the general meeting in Vienna old wounds are being reopened. Iran and Saudi Arabia are once again on opposite sides of the deal, and with Iraq’s lack of commitment to the production cut the impact would be limited.

The larger than expected weekly inventories last week sparked once again the supply glut conversation. Current prices have been tough for U.S. shale producers but production continues at a strong pace and imports have risen given the cheap price of energy. Saudi Arabia has ben asked to take a stronger leadership role, but as it stands they haven’t been able to convince OPEC and is questionable if they can really influence other non-OPEC major producers like Russia.

The price of gold has risen despite low inflation expectations in the U.S. and hawkish Fed that looks ready to pull the trigger on the much-awaited interest rate hike in December. The yellow metal gained 2.54 percent in the last 5 days. The U.S. election anxiety has overpowered the negative impact to gold as investors look for a safe haven amidst the political confusion with days to go before Americans head to the polls. The outlook for gold is for a correction following the November 8 vote in the U.S. but with the ever present possibility of a tie or a long process to identify the winner of the election there is still upside opportunities for the metal.

The rest of the week after the election results will be a time to recalibrate given the market jitters that have been present for the past two weeks. Macro economic conditions will have to be repriced in as a busy month awaits the markets in December. The Fed interest rate hike could have some monetary policy company as the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) have hinted at stimulus before the end of the year.

Source: marketpulse.com

 

 

Dollar Awaits Results of U.S. Elections

The USD is lower across the board versus major currencies as the U.S. election enters its final stretch. The FBI investigation into Secretary Clinton’s emails has eroded her lead in the polls and the battle for swing states will be crucial. The eyes of the world will be watching as votes start coming in on November 8.

The U.S. Federal Reserve held rates unchanged on Wednesday as expected. The proximity to the elections kept odds of a rate hike on November’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The CME FedWatch tool is showing a 71.5 percent probability of a rate hike on December 14 based on Fed Fund futures prices. Economic fundamentals have taken a backseat awaiting the outcome of the 2016 American presidential elections.

A clear victory from either candidate would remove uncertainty and reduce short-term volatility as the leadership vacuum would be filled. The USD would appreciate after being under the pressure of the final days ahead of the vote. There are different market scenarios depending on the actual make up of the outcome, but the worst case scenario for now would be a too-close-to-call result. A vote count that is not enough to give a decisive victory to either candidate would keep the leadership vacuum for longer triggering higher volatility in the markets.

The EUR/USD gained 1.702 percent in the last week. The single currency is trading at 1.1118 days ahead of the U.S. election. The combative campaigns to win the votes of American citizens will come to an end on November 8. The uncertainty surrounding the outcome has left the market in a volatile state, with little attention given to economic fundamentals until the issue of who will be the next U.S. president is settled. The fact that Donald Trump is not guaranteed to accept the results of the elections adds another layer of anxiety to an already bumpy road in 2016.

West Texas has lost 10.28 percent in the last week. The price of crude is trading at $43.86 and is near weekly lows. Energy is on a 6 day losing streak after the biggest factor pushing prices up this year is coming apart at the seams. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreement to cut production cut came as a surprise after the meeting in Algiers is now seriously in doubt. The rift between OPEC members appeared to have been mended, but ahead of the general meeting in Vienna old wounds are being reopened. Iran and Saudi Arabia are once again on opposite sides of the deal, and with Iraq’s lack of commitment to the production cut the impact would be limited.

The larger than expected weekly inventories last week sparked once again the supply glut conversation. Current prices have been tough for U.S. shale producers but production continues at a strong pace and imports have risen given the cheap price of energy. Saudi Arabia has ben asked to take a stronger leadership role, but as it stands they haven’t been able to convince OPEC and is questionable if they can really influence other non-OPEC major producers like Russia.

The price of gold has risen despite low inflation expectations in the U.S. and hawkish Fed that looks ready to pull the trigger on the much-awaited interest rate hike in December. The yellow metal gained 2.54 percent in the last 5 days. The U.S. election anxiety has overpowered the negative impact to gold as investors look for a safe haven amidst the political confusion with days to go before Americans head to the polls. The outlook for gold is for a correction following the November 8 vote in the U.S. but with the ever present possibility of a tie or a long process to identify the winner of the election there is still upside opportunities for the metal.

The rest of the week after the election results will be a time to recalibrate given the market jitters that have been present for the past two weeks. Macro economic conditions will have to be repriced in as a busy month awaits the markets in December. The Fed interest rate hike could have some monetary policy company as the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) have hinted at stimulus before the end of the year.

Source: marketpulse.com

lastest Articles

Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – World battles spread of Covid-19 and its economic destruction, a bigger OPEC +cut deal, and big bank stress tests
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Five reasons to drag the pair down
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Bearish sign
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
S&P: Major Aussie banks not at risk of downgrade amid pandemic
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: New quarter, same market gloom as coronavirus spreads, critical US data eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar Index: 2008/09 parallels point to sustained USD strength – Westpac
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Crude prices rebound after tapping 18-year low
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD needs to hold onto support at 1.0972 to weather the dollar storm
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Bearish pressure eased
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: King Dollar takes back the reins as coronavirus fears mount, oil slumps; eyes on German CPI
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Virus Watch, China data to rebound while the world braces for pain, and why the dollar looks so vulnerable
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Will King Dollar be re-coronated after the plunge? Virus, consumer data, eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Prices Steady Despite Increased Coronavirus Stimulus Hopes
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar dumping extends, US coronavirus cases top China’s; US House vote eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Watching if bulls are able to capitalize the momentum
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Crude Oil Pares Gains As Nervous Market Looks To US Jobless Claims
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: EUR, JPY in the lead after Senate's stamp, ahead of horrible US jobless claims, BOE
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: The picture is improving
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Futures: Upside looks capped
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Senate strikes stimulus, stocks may sell the fact, dollar pressured, coronavirus data eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
S&P 500 futures jump 5% and hit the limit-up band of 2,333.50
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD bulls looking to extend the momentum beyond 1.1700 mark
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD firmer above 1.0800 post-PMIs
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: 35-year uptrend breached – Commerzbank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: New week, same corona carnage, dollar down vs. majors, excels elsewhere, US Senate eye
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week ahead – Tougher times ahead?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold rallies further beyond $1500 mark, fresh session tops
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB’s stimulus package: Lagarde’s “Whatever it Takes” moment – UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar takes a breather, coronavirus claims 10,000 lives, “quadruple witching” eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Canada: BoC to keep the system running – RBC Economics
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Oil: Several OPEC members calling for new action – ANZ
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Euro at Risk Ahead of German IFO Data and SNB Rate Decision
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Crude Oil Futures: Still scope for a rebound… but when?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold slides further below $1500 mark, losing around 2.5% for the day
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Base metals: Sign of weakening demand emerging – ANZ
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Typical dead cat bounce ove
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Prices Slide Again As Coronavirus Prompts Cash Raising
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar dominant as markets bounce after Trump's recession talk, focus on fiscal stimulus
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BoJ Governor Kuroda: Possible to deepen negative interest rates further
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Faced rejection near the 1.1200 round-figure mark
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Fed and BOJ to add more to the punchbowl, Virus disruption, and a fourth week of heightened volatility
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US: Fed to cut 100bps at its next meeting – Deutsche Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB: EUR/USD heading lower as looks for fiscal measures – Danske Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold: Wave of selling also hit the yellow metal
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold surrenders early gains, back near $1640 level despite coronavirus-led jitters
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Trump fails to reassure coronavirus-concerned America, stocks down, gold up, ECB eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Euro Analysis Ahead of ECB Rate Decision and Lagarde Outlook
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Price Pullback Fizzles Amid Speculation for More Fed Rate Cuts
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Breaking: GBP/USD tumbles as BOE surprises with 50bp cut to 0.25% ahead of UK budget
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Yen rallies hard as US stimulus doubts, coronavirus fears hit stocks, USD and yields
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD resuming rise amid doubts over US fiscal stimulus
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar dominates after the coronavirus crash amid Trump's tax promises, Chinese hopes
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Global shares plunge in worst day since financial crisis
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Monday mayhem, wild currency moves, Gold fakeout, oil -30%, amid coronavirus panic
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Oil Prices Crash 25% As Oil War Begins
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
Time to Spring Forward
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week ahead – Market volatility here to stay
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
The Fed could cut rates further at the March meeting – UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold remains confined in a range, around $1640
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD flirting with daily highs around 1.1140
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD – Euro Rally May Just Be Getting Started vs US Dollar
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US Pres. Trump: Fed should ease and “cut rate big”
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BoE's Tenreyro: Important to highlight that we were not in a rush to raise interest rates
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Coronavirus update: First confirmed case in London, total infections in Iran at 1,501
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Upside stalled just ahead of the 200-day SMA
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Central Banks, OPEC + and Governments prepare to cushion the coronavirus impact
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US: Markets not focused on Super Tuesday
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB's Vasiliauskas says extraordinary meeting may be called over coronavirus, EUR/USD off the highs
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Markets in freefall: Carney warns UK faces downgrade over coronavirus – latest updates
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB's Schnabel: Coronavirus increased uncertainty about global growth outlook
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD now looks to 1.0925 – UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold clings to gains near session tops, around $1650 region
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Coronavirus clobbers markets, dollar on the defensive (for now), Bitcoin battered
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Euro Outlook Somber as COVID-19 Threatens EU Corporate Debt
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold corrects further from multi-year tops, slides to $1635 area
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Turn-up Tuesday? Dollar, stocks bouncing, Gold down, after coronavirus-related plunge
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Decline is challenging the 200-day SMA
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US Dollar Index Price Analysis: Still scope for a move to 100.00
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week ahead – Race to face the Don
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FED: Three arguments for a rate cut – Nordea
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Breaking: EUR/USD jumps above 1.08 as German Manufacturing PMI beats with 47.8
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
FXSniper X2 Risk Available in EURO Now
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD: Overnight sharp fall
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Long-term extremes for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, Gold amid coronavirus fears, USD rally
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Asian stocks slip as virus' regional spread spooks investors
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Futures: Green light for extra gains
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Possible test of 1.06 – Danske Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Yen slips as risk recovers on fading coronavirus fears; UK CPI – up next
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
RBA Minutes: Prepared to ease monetary policy further – ANZ
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BoJ expected to ease further into 2020 – UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Risk sold amid coronavirus-led rising economic costs; a busy docket ahead
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
EuroHook Pamm - The Fishermans's Bastion
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: A bottom looks closer – UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Turning a Corner on COVID-19
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Oil: Energy sector up
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD: Upsurge testing major resistance
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: EUR/USD falls toward Macron gap, Pound enjoys Javid jump, US consumer, coronavirus eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Australian dollar: Under the weight of the world – Westpac
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US Dollar May Rise on Haven Demand as Coronavirus Fears Swell
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Price Analysis: Levels to watch after coronavirus-fueled jump – Confluence Detector
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613