something interesting

<  BACK TO Market Analysis

Critical information for the U.S. trading day

Is oil getting ready to surprise investors?

The waiting game over just what economic and other plans POTUS has up his sleeve has been slowing this stock market to a painful crawl.

Of course, some will tell you all that uncertainty may eventually be good for stocks. But while we’re waiting for President Donald Trump to get stock investors excited, or really scared, it’s worth keeping an eye on other assets, which have triggered volatility for equities in the past.

That brings us to oil — one asset that should never go ignored by investors too long. Our call of the day comes from Raoul Pal, founder of Global Macro Investor. He says it’s time to buck the big-money trend and short oil, because those who produce the black stuff think the price right now really should be at $30.

Pal’s call comes after the latest weekly Commitment of Traders report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (ending Jan. 17) showed hedge funds and other money managers placed more bullish oil positions than any week since 2006. That’s as actual producers upped their short hedges to the highest level since 2007, in a bid to lock in higher prices. (Check out chart of the day in Monday’s Need to Know)

No one can deny the magnificent rally — roughly 65% — that crude has seen over the past 12 months. But cheers over the post-OPEC output-cut deal are dying down as U.S. shale producers seem ready to pick up the slack. Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch are warning that oil prices in local currencies are nearing 2014 levels, and that could cut into emerging-market demand growth.

Protectionist policies from Trump and the U.K. could also hold back global trade, and hence curb oil demand, those analysts say.

Then there’s the expectation by some that Trump will introduce measures to support the U.S. oil and gas industry, and wean the country off foreign suppliers. Rising U.S. supply, of course, will lean on prices in the coming month, Commerzbank told clients, adding: “In view of the record-high optimism exhibited by speculative financial investors, we see a risk of falling prices.”

The dollar DXY, +0.05% tumbled, then recovered, on comments from Trump’s Treasury pick Steven Mnuchin. The British pound GBPUSD, -0.0639%  fell after the U.K. Supreme Court said Prime Minister Theresa May needs to consult lawmakers before beginning the Brexit.

Gold GCG7, -0.66%  finished lower, and oil prices US:CLG7

European SXXP, +0.25%  markets are up, and Asia equities ADOW, +0.30%  ended broadly higher even after the U.S. pulled out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

Investors shouldn’t completely shun bonds right now, says Glenmede’s director of investment strategy, Jason Pride.

“Investors may get the urge to sell bonds in this environment, but shouldn’t give up on the asset class as they provide a good counterbalance during equity market selloffs,” Prides says in a weekly note.

But not just any old bonds, says Pride: “When rates are low and yield is scarce, investors should employ for a portion of their allocation a more opportunistic strategy that is not constrained to investing in the traditional fixed income securities that carry low yield and higher interest rate sensitivity.”

Source: marketwatch.com

Critical information for the U.S. trading day

Is oil getting ready to surprise investors?

The waiting game over just what economic and other plans POTUS has up his sleeve has been slowing this stock market to a painful crawl.

Of course, some will tell you all that uncertainty may eventually be good for stocks. But while we’re waiting for President Donald Trump to get stock investors excited, or really scared, it’s worth keeping an eye on other assets, which have triggered volatility for equities in the past.

That brings us to oil — one asset that should never go ignored by investors too long. Our call of the day comes from Raoul Pal, founder of Global Macro Investor. He says it’s time to buck the big-money trend and short oil, because those who produce the black stuff think the price right now really should be at $30.

Pal’s call comes after the latest weekly Commitment of Traders report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (ending Jan. 17) showed hedge funds and other money managers placed more bullish oil positions than any week since 2006. That’s as actual producers upped their short hedges to the highest level since 2007, in a bid to lock in higher prices. (Check out chart of the day in Monday’s Need to Know)

No one can deny the magnificent rally — roughly 65% — that crude has seen over the past 12 months. But cheers over the post-OPEC output-cut deal are dying down as U.S. shale producers seem ready to pick up the slack. Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch are warning that oil prices in local currencies are nearing 2014 levels, and that could cut into emerging-market demand growth.

Protectionist policies from Trump and the U.K. could also hold back global trade, and hence curb oil demand, those analysts say.

Then there’s the expectation by some that Trump will introduce measures to support the U.S. oil and gas industry, and wean the country off foreign suppliers. Rising U.S. supply, of course, will lean on prices in the coming month, Commerzbank told clients, adding: “In view of the record-high optimism exhibited by speculative financial investors, we see a risk of falling prices.”

The dollar DXY, +0.05% tumbled, then recovered, on comments from Trump’s Treasury pick Steven Mnuchin. The British pound GBPUSD, -0.0639%  fell after the U.K. Supreme Court said Prime Minister Theresa May needs to consult lawmakers before beginning the Brexit.

Gold GCG7, -0.66%  finished lower, and oil prices US:CLG7

European SXXP, +0.25%  markets are up, and Asia equities ADOW, +0.30%  ended broadly higher even after the U.S. pulled out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

Investors shouldn’t completely shun bonds right now, says Glenmede’s director of investment strategy, Jason Pride.

“Investors may get the urge to sell bonds in this environment, but shouldn’t give up on the asset class as they provide a good counterbalance during equity market selloffs,” Prides says in a weekly note.

But not just any old bonds, says Pride: “When rates are low and yield is scarce, investors should employ for a portion of their allocation a more opportunistic strategy that is not constrained to investing in the traditional fixed income securities that carry low yield and higher interest rate sensitivity.”

Source: marketwatch.com

lastest Articles

Market Analysis
Dollar mixed and Stocks Fall as markets brace for more global easing
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP: Guided by the UK politics
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY: Back under pressure
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 18.07.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold technical analysis: Bears challenge a key pivotal support near $1400 mark
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 17.07.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY recovers from lows, back around 121.40
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Canada: Housing data in focus
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 15.07.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR: ECB-related uncertainty lingers
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/CAD Canadian Dollar Higher as Dollar Faced Fed Cut Pressure
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD: Less of a safe haven now - ING
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 12.07.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BOE’s Vlieghe: BOE may need to raise rates if inflation expectations are deanchored by a no-deal Brexit
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold technical analysis: Set-up remains in favour of bullish traders, dip-buying to help the downside
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD - 11.07.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Bank Of England Sees Significant Market Volatility In Disorderly Brexit
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold steadily climbs to session tops, farther beyond $1400 handle
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 08.07.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: USD looking strong, Turkish lira plunges, new trade tensions arise
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
King Dollar’s reign could end on Powell’s testimony and trade war progress
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD at the crossroads - ING
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Oil: Prices likely to rebound this year – Danske Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US: Payrolls likely to increase 150k in June - TDS
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
RBA: More rate cuts to come? - Westpac
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB’s Lane: No comments on monetary policy
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold slips back closer to overnight swing low, below $1415 level
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Further downside should test the 100-day SMA at 1.1259
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
RBA delivers consecutive cuts - TDS
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 02.07.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/CAD Canadian Dollar Rises on Rate Divergence With Fed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
G20 meeting: Trump and Xi meeting in focus - Westpac
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY: Market stays immediately offered
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/CAD struggles below 1.3100 handle, fresh multi-month lows
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold climbs to weekly tops, around $1338 level
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 13.06.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
UK PM Candidate Javid: My absolute priority is to deliver a Brexit deal
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US: Damage already done from the Mexico tariff threat? – ABN AMRO
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY -12.06.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Preview: Draghi’s speech at ECB conference on CESEE in Frankfurt
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
OPEC+ and global supply risks to put a floor in crude markets - TDS
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold slips to 1-week low, below $1325 level amid fading safe-haven demand
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY -11.06.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Obsessed
This Time It's Different
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EU Commissioner Moscovici: EU still has risks to monitor, including Brexit and Italy’s finances
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold drops to multi-day lows, around $1325 level
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 10.06.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/CAD Canadian Dollar Higher After US and Canadian Jobs Report
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB's Vasiliauskas: Inflation outlook is 'not bad'
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BOJ: Expect further easing in September – JP Morgan
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD flirting with daily lows near 1.1260
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB and Eurozone GDP amongst market movers today – Danske Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Downtrend eroded? - Commerzbank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOMC: July meeting priced in for 21bps of cuts – Deutsche Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD firmer, approaches 1.1300 ahead of US ADP
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB: Tweak in policy rate forward guidance?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD: Further selling? – Danske Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold jumps to over 3-month tops, around $1330 area
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/GBP could move towards 0.9 – Danske Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Market Death by Tariffs; Safe-Havens Reign Supreme
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD holds steady near 1.1135 amid falling German yields
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 31.05.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold technical analysis: Bulls challenge 100-hour SMA/38.2% Fibo. confluence resistance
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BoE's Ramsden: Little more pessimistic about the GDP growth that the latest BoE forecasts
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 30.05.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY climbs to 1-week tops, 110.00 mark back on sight
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Rising bets for another test of 2019 lows near 1.1100
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 29.05.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold rallies to session tops, around $1285 level amid reviving safe-haven demand
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD remains under pressure around 1.1180
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 28.05.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY treads water near 109.50 amid negative Treasury yields
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/JPY technical analysis: Hangs near multi-month lows, bears eyeing a break below mid-138.00s
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/CAD ticks higher to mid-1.3400s amid weaker Oil prices
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD unable to gather traction above 1.1200
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
May’s Resignation means Brexit is Back to Square One
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 24.05.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD clings to modest recovery gains, 1.2700 mark back on sight post-UK data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Interim resistance emerges at the 55-day SMA at 1.1236
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold in search of a firm direction, holds steady near $1275 area
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD remains under pressure near 1.1150 post-German GDP
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 22.05.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOMC Minutes to portray a cautious tone
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD technical analysis: Hammered down to 4-1/2 lows, vulnerable to test 1.2600 mark
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY -21.02.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
RBA: Rate cut in June and August?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD resumes the downside near 1.1150 ahead of ECB, data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB's de Cos: European financial system remains fragile
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY remains sidelined below the 123.00 handle
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD seen at 1.15 in 6-month – Danske Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/CAD Canadian Dollar Lower Despite Reaching Tariff Agreement With US
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 17.05.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold drops to session lows, retreats further below $1300 mark
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Short-term consolidation?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
JPY futures: room for further depreciation
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/TRY edging higher, approaches the 6.10 area
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
AUD/USD technical analysis: Bears flirting with 1-week old descending trend-channel support
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 14.05.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD keeps the red below mid-1.2900s, 2-week lows post-UK jobs data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Recent tops and the 55-day SMA keeps limiting extra gains
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613