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PIG TODAY-AUD/USD, NZD/USD: Bullish Multi-Week Patterns Intact But Caution S/T - NAB

AUD/USD: Price broke down from its broad 2016 triangle in Q4 2016 and challenged the bottom of the nine-month range and our downside target at 0.7150/00 in December. The response to nine-month  lows  at o.7150/00 has  been positive however, completing a bullish three-week candle pattern in early January that triggered an aggressive positive extension.

ST cracks are starting to emerge with two daily Doji (open=close) produced  in the  past four sessions. This  implies that positive momentum is exhausted in the ST.

On a multi-week basis the interim uptrend justifies a retest of the base of the broken LT uptrend channel at 0.7710/30. Beyond this we note 2016  highs  at  o.7778/o.7835 as a difficult hurdle that would need to be overcome in order to establish a more sustainable MT uptrend.

v39.PNG

NZD/USD: Price is in the process a completing its fifth consecutive up week. This aggressive bounce has negated the downtrend that began in September 2016 at 0.7486 (downtrend break confirmed by the recent close above 0.7095 - 61.8% retrace). This downtrend was material in magnitude but fell some 150-200 points short of our aggressive downside target  at 0.6650/0.6700.

The upswing to date is yet to retest the broken uptrend channel at o.7310/30. This is a likely interim target and level that must be broken if a more sustainable uptrend it to be maintained .

At this time we are comfortable targeting 0.7310/30 but prefer to take a wait and see approach to further gains depending upon the price response to this key resistance levels. Note that 2016 highs at o.7403/0.7486 are an additional resistance level and set up a difficult path above for NZDUSD.

Source: efxnews.com

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