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PIG TODAY-EUR/USD, GBP/USD: Looking For Attractive Levels To Add To USD Longs - TD

We recently revised our Fed call, looking for two hikes this year and three next year but don’t expect this week’s meeting to be market moving. This could favor a bit more range trading in the early half of the week but like buying into the USD pullbacks.

This leaves us looking for attractive levels to add fresh longs in the USD. We think the correction in the major currencies since the start of the year is unlikely to persist so caution against chasing the momentum at these levels. We think the headlines and risk events this week increase the potential for more two-way risk but our bias remains overweight the greenback into H1.

For the week ahead, we think the EUR looks vulnerable to a pullback and like selling it near the top-end of the range near 1.07. This week’s data is likely to show perky EZ inflation for December but it is unlikely to nudge nominal rates higher. That should keep real rates moving lower, which remains a key driver for EURUSD.

Elsewhere, politics and policy could underpin a continuation of GBP’s short squeeze. Still, we believe much of the good news is getting priced into GBP so like fading rallies from here.

.

v94.PNG

 Source: efxnews.com

We recently revised our Fed call, looking for two hikes this year and three next year but don’t expect this week’s meeting to be market moving. This could favor a bit more range trading in the early half of the week but like buying into the USD pullbacks.

This leaves us looking for attractive levels to add fresh longs in the USD. We think the correction in the major currencies since the start of the year is unlikely to persist so caution against chasing the momentum at these levels. We think the headlines and risk events this week increase the potential for more two-way risk but our bias remains overweight the greenback into H1.

For the week ahead, we think the EUR looks vulnerable to a pullback and like selling it near the top-end of the range near 1.07. This week’s data is likely to show perky EZ inflation for December but it is unlikely to nudge nominal rates higher. That should keep real rates moving lower, which remains a key driver for EURUSD.

Elsewhere, politics and policy could underpin a continuation of GBP’s short squeeze. Still, we believe much of the good news is getting priced into GBP so like fading rallies from here.

.

v94.PNG

 Source: efxnews.com

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