something interesting

<  BACK TO Market Analysis

Week Ahead Dollar Higher Ahead of Fed Minutes

Notes from Fed to boost Dollar on short US trading week

The U.S. dollar is higher against most major pairs ahead of the Presidents Day long weekend. American economic fundamentals had a strong week, but failed to gain traction given the rise of political risk as Trump’s administration continues to send mixed messages to markets. The stock market and safe havens like gold and the Japanese yen finished higher against the dollar in a very political week.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in February reenergized the greenback and started the current USD rally. The minutes from that monetary policy meeting will be published on Wednesday, February 22 at 2:00 pm EST (7:00 pm GMT). Fed member comments since then have confirmed the high probability of multiple rate hikes this year, although according to the CME FedWatch tool the market remains unconvinced showing a higher than 80 percent probability of the central bank keeping rates unchanged in March. Fed member Jeffery Lacker said that the market could be caught by surprise. The biggest threat to the dollar has been the political climate. Scandals on the national security front have raised red flags on the inexperience of the Trump administration.

The holiday on Monday will push the release of U.S. crude inventories back a day. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its weekly statistics on Thursday, February 23 at 10:30 am EST (3:30 pm GMT). The price West Texas has not been able to push above $54 despite the efforts of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to communicate the success of their production cut agreement. The main factor keeping crude at current levels is the growth of U.S. production that have kept prices in a tight range for most of 2017 even as the OPEC have hinted at an extension to their six month deal.

The EUR/USD lost 0.518 percent in the last five days. The single pair is trading at 1.0613 which is a surprise given the very strong economic data out of the U.S. this week. Strong inflation, manufacturing and retail sales data along with hawkish words from Fed Chair Janet Yellen on her testimonies before congress should have the USD trading higher. Political scandals have made the French election even more unpredictable weakening the euro, but the so-called Trump rally has been derailed by Trump himself while softening on trade has increased anti-immigrant actions all the while not given enough details on pro-growth policies to boost the USD.

Stock markets have been on a record run boosted by strong fundamentals and commentary from Fed members, but that optimism hasn’t extended to the American currency. Chair Yellen provided the most quotable sound bite when she told the Senate banking committee that it would be unwise for the central bank to wait too long before hiking rates. The translation from Fedspeak to English diminishes the hawkish tone as the Fed Chair is only implying the Fed is ready to hike but more data is likely needed before making that decision. If U.S. fundamentals can continue to beat expectations like the latest releases it could be sooner rather than later for the first U.S. interest rate hike of 2017.

Oil is flat in a volatile week that saw the price of crude move in a 1.17 percent range. The price of West Texas is trading at $53.15 as the results of the production cut by OPEC members are being cancelled by rising U.S. shale production. 72 rigs have been added in 2017 as the price of crude remains over $50. There were doubts surrounding the deal between OPEC members and 11 other oil producing nations, but so far there has been compliance. The lack of a massive price surge has OPEC contemplating an extension to the original 6 month duration of the agreement.

The boom in shale oil activity in the U.S. is a direct result of stable prices and a more industry friendly administration. The biggest challenge still facing oil prices is global demand that continues to be weak despite optimistic forecasts from OPEC and the U.S. EIA that show an improvement in energy demand.

Source: marketpulse.com

Notes from Fed to boost Dollar on short US trading week

The U.S. dollar is higher against most major pairs ahead of the Presidents Day long weekend. American economic fundamentals had a strong week, but failed to gain traction given the rise of political risk as Trump’s administration continues to send mixed messages to markets. The stock market and safe havens like gold and the Japanese yen finished higher against the dollar in a very political week.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in February reenergized the greenback and started the current USD rally. The minutes from that monetary policy meeting will be published on Wednesday, February 22 at 2:00 pm EST (7:00 pm GMT). Fed member comments since then have confirmed the high probability of multiple rate hikes this year, although according to the CME FedWatch tool the market remains unconvinced showing a higher than 80 percent probability of the central bank keeping rates unchanged in March. Fed member Jeffery Lacker said that the market could be caught by surprise. The biggest threat to the dollar has been the political climate. Scandals on the national security front have raised red flags on the inexperience of the Trump administration.

The holiday on Monday will push the release of U.S. crude inventories back a day. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its weekly statistics on Thursday, February 23 at 10:30 am EST (3:30 pm GMT). The price West Texas has not been able to push above $54 despite the efforts of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to communicate the success of their production cut agreement. The main factor keeping crude at current levels is the growth of U.S. production that have kept prices in a tight range for most of 2017 even as the OPEC have hinted at an extension to their six month deal.

The EUR/USD lost 0.518 percent in the last five days. The single pair is trading at 1.0613 which is a surprise given the very strong economic data out of the U.S. this week. Strong inflation, manufacturing and retail sales data along with hawkish words from Fed Chair Janet Yellen on her testimonies before congress should have the USD trading higher. Political scandals have made the French election even more unpredictable weakening the euro, but the so-called Trump rally has been derailed by Trump himself while softening on trade has increased anti-immigrant actions all the while not given enough details on pro-growth policies to boost the USD.

Stock markets have been on a record run boosted by strong fundamentals and commentary from Fed members, but that optimism hasn’t extended to the American currency. Chair Yellen provided the most quotable sound bite when she told the Senate banking committee that it would be unwise for the central bank to wait too long before hiking rates. The translation from Fedspeak to English diminishes the hawkish tone as the Fed Chair is only implying the Fed is ready to hike but more data is likely needed before making that decision. If U.S. fundamentals can continue to beat expectations like the latest releases it could be sooner rather than later for the first U.S. interest rate hike of 2017.

Oil is flat in a volatile week that saw the price of crude move in a 1.17 percent range. The price of West Texas is trading at $53.15 as the results of the production cut by OPEC members are being cancelled by rising U.S. shale production. 72 rigs have been added in 2017 as the price of crude remains over $50. There were doubts surrounding the deal between OPEC members and 11 other oil producing nations, but so far there has been compliance. The lack of a massive price surge has OPEC contemplating an extension to the original 6 month duration of the agreement.

The boom in shale oil activity in the U.S. is a direct result of stable prices and a more industry friendly administration. The biggest challenge still facing oil prices is global demand that continues to be weak despite optimistic forecasts from OPEC and the U.S. EIA that show an improvement in energy demand.

Source: marketpulse.com

lastest Articles

Quips of Wisdom
Forex Trading Wisdom: Risk Control
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (13.12.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Currencies struggle for direction despite Draghi and Trump comments
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY -13.12.2018
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (12.12.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
USD Bank Wire Notice
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
ECB will say goodbye to quantitative easing, but when will it hike rates?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
Forex Trading Wisdom:Knowing Your Self
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY- 12.12.2018
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (11.12.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
Forex Trading Wisdom: Personalizing Loses
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY-11.12.2018
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (10.12.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY- 10.12.2018
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
Forex Trading Wisdom: Amateurs vs Professionals
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Risk-off extends into Asia, UK monthly GDP – key focus
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
BREXIT - Margin Requirement
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
Forex Trading Wisdom: The Game
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Gold retreats from 5-week tops amid a modest USD rebound
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (04.12.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
US National Mourning day Trading Schedule
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY- 04.12.2018
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
Forex Trading Wisdom: Keep it Simple
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Breaking: GBP/USD jumps on ECJ opinion that the UK can revoke Article 50 unilaterally
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (03.12.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD fails to preserve gains, calms down below mid-1.27s
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
Forex Trading Wisdom: Your Friend
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY- 03.12.2018
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Weekly Results
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar Looking for Economic Guidance Ahead of Busy Week
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
Forex Trading Wisdom: You are what you do
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
FOMC to press on with hikes, cautiously
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (29.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US Dollar Tests Trend-Line Support Ahead of FOMC Minutes
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
Forex Trading Wisdom: Risk and Reward
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY- 29.11.2018
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Fed's Powell: Estimates of neutral policy rate, maximum employment highly uncertain
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
Forex Trading Wisdom: Bull and Bear
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: On the defensive
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (27.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today - Sterling falls on Brexit vote worries, Trump weighs in
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
Forex Trading Wisdom: Move on
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY -27.11.2018
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (26.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Dragged down by the marked divergence in growth momentum
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
Forex Trading Wisdom: Don't lose
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 26.11.2018
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar Higher as Trade War Concerns Fuel Risk Aversion
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed PAMM Accounts - Weekly Results
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Bank of England: Waiting on Brexit
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom - Small Profits
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
EUR/USD tumbles back closer to weekly lows on dismal Euro-zone PMIs
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (21.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
UK PM May Spokesman: UK has no further demands in Brexit negotiations ahead of EU summit
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold moves back closer to Wednesday’s 2-week tops
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB Minutes to reveal little detail about future policy
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
Thanksgiving Trading Hours
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 21.11.2018
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: The Goal
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Antipodeans bounce amid quiet Asia, European politics in spotlight
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Early Wednesday buyers should watch out for falling bears
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (20.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY- 20.11.2018
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom:Clear Markets
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Aussie weakest in Asia risk-off, eyes on BOE inflation report hearings
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (19.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Fed's Williams: Fed to continue hiking rates along gradual path
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold ticks lower to $1220, though downside remains limited
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY (19.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
SKRILL Policy Change
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Dollar Lower Ahead of Crucial Week for Brexit and Italian Budget
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Weekly Results
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Time Off
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Draghi’s speech: Slowdown has raised questions about strength of growth outlook
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY (16.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD – Euro ticks lower, investors eye U.S retail sales
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Never Happens
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY (15.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (14.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Breaking Rules
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Gold Prices May Fall on US CPI Uptick, Hawkish Powell Comments
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD gyrates around 1.1300 ahead of EMU GDP, US CPI
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FX Today: Pound sees two-way trading in Asia, Eyes on German GDP, Brexit Cabinet meeting, UK CPI
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (13.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 13.11.2018
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Risk rebounds on easing US-China trade woes; UK wages, ZEW – Key
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (12.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US Dollar Flying High on Hawkish Fed Statement
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Trading Rule #10
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
GBP/USD challenges 1.3000 post-UK data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY retreats further from 5-week tops, at low point of the day
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (08.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: Upside capped by the 200-day SMA at 130.21
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Trading Rule #9
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Forex Today: US dollar extends post-US election recovery ahead of FOMC decision
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (07.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Crude Oil Technical Analysis: Black Gold continues its descent as bearish EIA data sends WTI to $61.00 a barrel
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Trading Rule #8
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOMC: No urgency to raise policy rates
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY ( 07.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613