something interesting

<  BACK TO Market Analysis

PIG TODAY-Fed minutes scatter the birds and dollar rally sucks wind - AmpGFX

Greg Gibbs, Director at Amplifying Global FX Capital, suggests that the recently releases FOMC minutes were a confusing set of minutes that say, on the one hand, many want to raise fairly soon, but on the other, many say there is likely to be ample time to respond if signs of rising inflation pressure emerge.

Key Quotes

“Many want to emphasize a gradual rate tightening outlook, but several, it seems, want the Fed to appear more flexible.  There are some hawks that are ready to hike soon and others that might like to hold back until say June.  There are birds of all kinds of a feather.”

“In general, their views haven’t changed much since December, and at that meeting, the majority wanted to hike thrice this year. This throws up an interesting conundrum for timing when most seem to think the Fed prefers to change policy at the quarterly SEP/press conference meetings.  How do you fit three into four?  I mean, if we spread these three hikes over a year, then you hike at in-between meetings (May/July/Nov?).  Maybe the odds of moving at these lesser dates is higher than normal.”

“What does “fairly soon” mean.  It sounds like March or May…June would seem on the fringe of fairly soon.  If the Fed doesn’t like the in-between dates, then it sounds like March.  But if it’s only three this year, March sounds like a Fed stepping up the pace from last year, and getting a bit ahead of the three a year schedule.  The broader tone of the minutes didn’t really suggest any additional urgency to hike since December; gradual remains the buzz word.”

“The change in government is generating heightened uncertainty.  On balance it seems more likely to boost growth and inflation, but there are also downside risks.  Some don’t want to get too caught up in government policy watching and appear more hawkish, some others would like more clarity before rushing to hike.”

“The balance of risks appears to have shifted somewhat more positive, albeit still wide, but several Fed members see further strength in the USD exchange rate as restraining the growth and inflation outlook.”

“The strength in the USD is mentioned four times in these minutes, illustrating that it was raised more often in this meeting than normal, by several members, as an issue that might moderate the need to hike.”

“Business optimism has been given a big boost by possible tax cuts and stripping back regulation.  But the evidence of immediate impact on business investment is more cautious.  This may indicate much depends on the Government to deliver on its tax policy.”

“The Fed is acutely watching the labor market.  Several members are cognizant that it might already be on the verge of becoming too tight.”

“The USD is weaker in response to the minutes, perhaps because the increased mention of the USD exchange rate risks in the minutes resonates with the market.  The strong USD was a factor that appeared to slow the expansion last year. The USD is historically strong and it has failed to build much moment over the last year even as US rates have risen, suggesting its multi-year rally is sucking wind.”

“The market may also be pushing back the scope and timing for the government to deliver on its tax/regulatory/infrastructure policy and instead is getting mired down in immigration and healthcare policy issues.  Furthermore, the administration appears to want a weaker USD.”

Source: fxstreet.com

Greg Gibbs, Director at Amplifying Global FX Capital, suggests that the recently releases FOMC minutes were a confusing set of minutes that say, on the one hand, many want to raise fairly soon, but on the other, many say there is likely to be ample time to respond if signs of rising inflation pressure emerge.

Key Quotes

“Many want to emphasize a gradual rate tightening outlook, but several, it seems, want the Fed to appear more flexible.  There are some hawks that are ready to hike soon and others that might like to hold back until say June.  There are birds of all kinds of a feather.”

“In general, their views haven’t changed much since December, and at that meeting, the majority wanted to hike thrice this year. This throws up an interesting conundrum for timing when most seem to think the Fed prefers to change policy at the quarterly SEP/press conference meetings.  How do you fit three into four?  I mean, if we spread these three hikes over a year, then you hike at in-between meetings (May/July/Nov?).  Maybe the odds of moving at these lesser dates is higher than normal.”

“What does “fairly soon” mean.  It sounds like March or May…June would seem on the fringe of fairly soon.  If the Fed doesn’t like the in-between dates, then it sounds like March.  But if it’s only three this year, March sounds like a Fed stepping up the pace from last year, and getting a bit ahead of the three a year schedule.  The broader tone of the minutes didn’t really suggest any additional urgency to hike since December; gradual remains the buzz word.”

“The change in government is generating heightened uncertainty.  On balance it seems more likely to boost growth and inflation, but there are also downside risks.  Some don’t want to get too caught up in government policy watching and appear more hawkish, some others would like more clarity before rushing to hike.”

“The balance of risks appears to have shifted somewhat more positive, albeit still wide, but several Fed members see further strength in the USD exchange rate as restraining the growth and inflation outlook.”

“The strength in the USD is mentioned four times in these minutes, illustrating that it was raised more often in this meeting than normal, by several members, as an issue that might moderate the need to hike.”

“Business optimism has been given a big boost by possible tax cuts and stripping back regulation.  But the evidence of immediate impact on business investment is more cautious.  This may indicate much depends on the Government to deliver on its tax policy.”

“The Fed is acutely watching the labor market.  Several members are cognizant that it might already be on the verge of becoming too tight.”

“The USD is weaker in response to the minutes, perhaps because the increased mention of the USD exchange rate risks in the minutes resonates with the market.  The strong USD was a factor that appeared to slow the expansion last year. The USD is historically strong and it has failed to build much moment over the last year even as US rates have risen, suggesting its multi-year rally is sucking wind.”

“The market may also be pushing back the scope and timing for the government to deliver on its tax/regulatory/infrastructure policy and instead is getting mired down in immigration and healthcare policy issues.  Furthermore, the administration appears to want a weaker USD.”

Source: fxstreet.com

lastest Articles

Market Analysis
US: Inflationary impact of Chinese tariffs to be modest - TDS
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP futures: up move seen running out of steam
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY positive view unchanged above 110.76 – Commerzbank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: holding into bullish pressure despite risk flows
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: Still targets the 200-day SMA at 131.11
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Riksbank Minutes amongst market movers today
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Bears waiting near 1.31
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Trade Tensions Return as US Tariffs on China Lift Dollar
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: A test of July’s tops beyond 132.00 gains further traction
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR futures: rising odds for extra gains
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD climbs to fresh 6-week tops, further beyond 1.3100 handle
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY aims for extra gains while above 111.35
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD keeps the tight range above 1.1600 post-ECB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD still expected to test 1.13170 – UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB and BoE to be the key event today – Danske Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/CAD stays bullish above 1.2997/30
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD fails once again above 1.1600, US PPI eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD neutral although a test of lower levels remains on the cards – UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY trades with modest losses, around mid-111.00s
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: Short-term bias still bullish but momentum eases
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Bulls eager to break above 112.00 figure
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Oil rises as U.S. sanctions on Iran squeeze supply
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Good traders liquidate when they are wrong, great traders reverse when they are wrong
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Sterling surges on hopes for Brexit deal, yen dips on chipmaker deal
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: sees risk-recovery in Asia, UK earnings in spotlight
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (10.09.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Swissy trapped in ranges
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Sterling edges up after biggest weekly drop in a month
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Quote: On losing-Pig Insider
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Dollar edges higher on trade tensions, Swedish crown rises after vote
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets 10.09.2018: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Market Events Ahead
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX WEEK AHEAD : Trade Tensions and Strong US Employment Lift Dollar
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Bulls trying to regain control, eyeing a move beyond 100/200-hour SMA
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Quote: systems and tendencies-Eckhardt
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Dollar in check as investors await August jobs report
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets 07.09.2018: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (06.09.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Initiates Bullish Series Despite Disappointing Euro-Area Data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Quote: Philip-Fisher-wisdom-trading-quote
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Sterling to float up around 6 percent in a year, but no-deal Brexit would sink it - Reuters poll
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets 06.08.2018: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Sterling edges lower for a fifth day on trade war fears
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: The Wise Pig on results
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Sterling plunges vs euro as Brexit fears take centre-stage
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets 04.09.2018: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (03.09.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
US Dollar within range above 95.00
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets 03.09.2018: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Quote: If you can’t do a thing better than others are doing it, don’t do it at all
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Sterling falls as Brexit headlines sap demand
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Market Events Ahead
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Weekly Results (27.08-01.09.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
FOREX Week Ahead: US Dollar Mixed on Trade Deal Versus Trade War Balance
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Quote: Bruce Kovner - Quote on risk management
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Sterling set for fifth straight monthly drop on Brexit nerves
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar edges up on latest round of U.S.-China trade tensions
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets 31.08.2018: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (30.08.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
GBP/USD – British pound pauses after sharp gains
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Quote:A trader should look at a chart for what it is, and not for what he want it to be.
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
EUR/USD falls back below 1.1700 handle amid re-emerging Turkish crisis
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Sterling jumps on EU official's Brexit views; dollar near 4-week low
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets 30.08.2018: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Quote:If the losses don't hurt, your financial survival is tenuous
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
WTI looks to $ 69 ahead of EIA data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Yuan eases on dollar demand, snapping a 3-day winning streak
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar little changed as investors await trade news
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (28.08.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
GBP/USD struggling to make new short-term cycle highs, support is 1.2850
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY – Yen trading sideways, as Japanese, U.S data beats expectations
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US stocks continue scaling higher on easing trade fears
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
WTI bounces-back above $ 69 mark, API data in focus
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Quote:Nothing is worth doing unless it is worth doing right
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar mired near one-month low on trade deal; pound struggles
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets 28.08.2018: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/CAD Price Outlook: Loonie Threatens Breakout on Easing Trade Tensions
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Yuan hits four-week high as China signals support, revives X-factor for fixing
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Quote:Schwager-dont stay wrong
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Dollar softens as Powell disappoints bulls, NAFTA hopes lift Mexican peso
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets 27.08.2018: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US Dollar Drops After Powell Stresses Gradual Approach to Rates
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/CAD edges lower toward 1.30 on unabated USD sell-off
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Oil stages sharp bounce, a day after snapping win streak
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Sterling stuck near 11-month lows vs euro
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Quote:Koner-your position in half
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Dollar holds gains after U.S.-China trade talks, focus shifts to Fed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets 24.08.2018: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (23.08.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
USD/CAD stays in the upper half of its daily range above 1.3050
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Quote:promiscious in search not in trading-Eckhardt
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Sterling falls as Britain steps up planning for no-deal Brexit
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar up as Aussie drops, Fed minutes signal Sept. rate rise coming
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets 23.08.2018: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY – Japanese yen unchanged ahead of Japanese inflation reports
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Quote: Marcus-position & risk
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Euro backs off two-week high as markets eye Fed minutes, trade talks
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar remains on defensive, U.S.-China trade talks awaited
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD probing lows near 1.1560 ahead of FOMC minutes
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (21.08.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png