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PIG TODAY-EUR/USD: Bullish S/T Targeting 1.08; USD/JPY: Bearish S/T Targeting 111 - BTMU

EUR/USD – BULLISH BIAS – (1.0450-1.0800)

Again, like above, there are no obvious risk events to focus on in the week ahead and hence our inclination is to give the current momentum greater influence in the bias for the week ahead. We don’t really agree with selling the dollar on the back of the FOMC minutes but the softer dollar momentum might have legs given there is nothing to necessarily alter that for now – certainly not from a global macro perspective. Of course, the obvious risk the other way is that French political risk escalates again and we see that drag the euro lower. Opinion polls will be key in that.

The key piece of data is perhaps the flash estimate for CPI and core CPI on 28th February. The data from the euro-zone has clearly improved although the core annual CPI rate remains stuck at 0.9%. Any upside surprise there would reinforce expectations of the ECB tapering QE later this year and would help provide support for the euro. Still, upside momentum is unlikely to be strong given the scale of uncertainty lingering in Europe.

USD/JPY – BEARISH BIAS – (111.00-114.50)

The calendar is relatively light for the week ahead and there are no clear-cut obvious events that could prompt market volatility in the week ahead. The FOMC minutes have been classed by the market as more on the dovish side and while we would question how long that conclusion will last, there is certainly scope for it to last over the relatively short period of a week when there are no major data releases or events to alter sentiment.

Fed President Kaplan (voter), Bullard (non-voter), Williams (nonvoter) and Mester (non-voter) all speak over the period through to next Thursday but the key US data will probably be the PCE inflation data released on 1st March. The payrolls will not be released as usual on the first Friday due to the shorter February and hence will not be released until 10th March. Event risk appears more skewed toward risk aversion if political risks intensify in Europe again and hence yen strength is our bias for the week ahead, especially when coupled with the current momentum in the wake of the FOMC minutes.

Source:efxnews.com

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