something interesting

<  BACK TO Market Analysis

PIG TODAY-How the Rest of the World Paved the Way for a March Fed Hike

In just a week, markets went from doubting a March rate increase to viewing one as a sure bet. The central bank's top brass engineered the change by speaking in favor of a hike, culminating in Fed Chair Janet Yellen's endorsement on Friday.

What changed to push central bank policy makers from the neutral stance that Fed-watchers saw in their January meeting minutes to the brink of a rate increase? Not much, if you're looking at U.S. data. The fact that nothing deteriorated was enough to clear the hurdle for a March rate move, especially because steady domestic data have come alongside a slowly-improving international outlook – a major shift from the situation at this time last year, when global risks helped to stay the Fed's hand.

The charts below illustrate the steady U.S. economy and sunnier international situation that have given policy makers the confidence to prime markets for a March 15 hike.

U.S. data: good enough

"There is almost no economic indicator that has come in badly in the last three months," Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said Friday at a forum hosted by the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business. Likewise, Yellen said employment and inflation are evolving in line with the Federal Open Market Committee's expectations. As you can see below, while prices haven't broken out dramatically to the upside, they're still moving toward the Fed's goals.

Unemployment has "essentially met" what officials see as full employment, Yellen said Friday. Low joblessness isn't a major change from last year, though wages are very slowly crawling higher, suggesting that the labor market is getting tighter.

And the outlook for output growth hasn't changed much. New York Fed President William Dudley said the economy is still on about a 2 percent growth track, speaking in a CNN interview on Feb. 28. He then signaled a willingness to raise rates soon.

In short, the U.S. economy isn't experiencing a breakout moment, but it's holding up. Evidently, that's all the Fed needed to see.

The global outlook has shifted, if you listen to Yellen and Governor Lael Brainard. In 2016, the Fed entered the year looking to raise rates, but tumult in Chinese markets and Britain's vote to exit the European Union helped to keep them on hold until December.

This year, "the prospects for further moderate economic growth look encouraging, particularly as risks emanating from abroad appear to have receded somewhat,” Yellen said Friday.

"Foreign growth is on more solid footing and risks to the outlook are as close to balanced as they have been in some time," Brainard said March 1.

Yellen said China "has continued to grow and its management of its currency has been better understood and led to less volatility,'' while Brainard said government officials there had “stabilized growth and calmed fears of financial instability." In the chart below, you can see as the economic environment stabilizes, China's manufacturing sector is posting gradually better results.

Yellen noted that Brexit negotiations and concerns about European integration could continue to pose a risk, but Brainard said Europe's "recovery has proven to be increasingly resilient.''

Euro area headline inflation has been climbing, providing fresh arguments to those calling for an exit from the European Central Bank’s monetary stimulus program, though core inflation remains below 1 percent.  Euro-area unemployment was unchanged at 9.6 percent in January, the lowest since May 2009.

At the end of the day, it wasn't an outsize improvement in data at home that dealt the Fed a winning hand in early 2017: growth remains in a holding pattern, progress in headline inflation is energy-tied, and the job market is growing at a similar clip to last year. And while domestic fiscal policy seems increasingly likely to turn stimulative as President Donald Trump promises tax cuts and infrastructure spending, Yellen and her colleagues say it's too early to take that into account when setting policy.

What has changed significantly is that threats from abroad are looking less scary. As long as that remains the case and U.S. data remain steady between now and March 15, the Fed appears poised for its first non-December rate increase since June 2006.

Source: bloomberg.com

In just a week, markets went from doubting a March rate increase to viewing one as a sure bet. The central bank's top brass engineered the change by speaking in favor of a hike, culminating in Fed Chair Janet Yellen's endorsement on Friday.

What changed to push central bank policy makers from the neutral stance that Fed-watchers saw in their January meeting minutes to the brink of a rate increase? Not much, if you're looking at U.S. data. The fact that nothing deteriorated was enough to clear the hurdle for a March rate move, especially because steady domestic data have come alongside a slowly-improving international outlook – a major shift from the situation at this time last year, when global risks helped to stay the Fed's hand.

The charts below illustrate the steady U.S. economy and sunnier international situation that have given policy makers the confidence to prime markets for a March 15 hike.

U.S. data: good enough

"There is almost no economic indicator that has come in badly in the last three months," Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said Friday at a forum hosted by the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business. Likewise, Yellen said employment and inflation are evolving in line with the Federal Open Market Committee's expectations. As you can see below, while prices haven't broken out dramatically to the upside, they're still moving toward the Fed's goals.

Unemployment has "essentially met" what officials see as full employment, Yellen said Friday. Low joblessness isn't a major change from last year, though wages are very slowly crawling higher, suggesting that the labor market is getting tighter.

And the outlook for output growth hasn't changed much. New York Fed President William Dudley said the economy is still on about a 2 percent growth track, speaking in a CNN interview on Feb. 28. He then signaled a willingness to raise rates soon.

In short, the U.S. economy isn't experiencing a breakout moment, but it's holding up. Evidently, that's all the Fed needed to see.

The global outlook has shifted, if you listen to Yellen and Governor Lael Brainard. In 2016, the Fed entered the year looking to raise rates, but tumult in Chinese markets and Britain's vote to exit the European Union helped to keep them on hold until December.

This year, "the prospects for further moderate economic growth look encouraging, particularly as risks emanating from abroad appear to have receded somewhat,” Yellen said Friday.

"Foreign growth is on more solid footing and risks to the outlook are as close to balanced as they have been in some time," Brainard said March 1.

Yellen said China "has continued to grow and its management of its currency has been better understood and led to less volatility,'' while Brainard said government officials there had “stabilized growth and calmed fears of financial instability." In the chart below, you can see as the economic environment stabilizes, China's manufacturing sector is posting gradually better results.

Yellen noted that Brexit negotiations and concerns about European integration could continue to pose a risk, but Brainard said Europe's "recovery has proven to be increasingly resilient.''

Euro area headline inflation has been climbing, providing fresh arguments to those calling for an exit from the European Central Bank’s monetary stimulus program, though core inflation remains below 1 percent.  Euro-area unemployment was unchanged at 9.6 percent in January, the lowest since May 2009.

At the end of the day, it wasn't an outsize improvement in data at home that dealt the Fed a winning hand in early 2017: growth remains in a holding pattern, progress in headline inflation is energy-tied, and the job market is growing at a similar clip to last year. And while domestic fiscal policy seems increasingly likely to turn stimulative as President Donald Trump promises tax cuts and infrastructure spending, Yellen and her colleagues say it's too early to take that into account when setting policy.

What has changed significantly is that threats from abroad are looking less scary. As long as that remains the case and U.S. data remain steady between now and March 15, the Fed appears poised for its first non-December rate increase since June 2006.

Source: bloomberg.com

lastest Articles

Market Analysis
Crude Oil Futures: Upside looks limited
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB’s Lagarde: Economic recovery would be constrained, uncertain and fragmented
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Gold eyeing $1,800, dollar mixed, as coronavirus, Hong Kong peg move markets
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Price Analysis: Holds steady above $1775 level, bullish bias remains
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BOJ to project economic recovery in report next week – Reuters
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Chinese optimism downs dollar as investors ignore US coronavirus, data eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Economic Reopening Continues
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Stocks' strength, dollar downing face Non-Farm Payrolls test as Trump endorses masks
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BoE's Haskel: Activity appears to be coming back faster than anticipated
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
GBP Bank Account
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Gold shines, markets look for direction after a successful Q2, ahead of busy start to Q3
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold eases below $1770 level, downside seems limited
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Europe fights coronavirus and stuns the dollar
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Markets attempt to shrug off grim coronavirus developments
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Jitters Continue into Busy Week
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US Dollar Index clings to gains near 97.50 ahead of data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB’s Lagarde: Economic recovery will be a complicated matter
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold sticks to the positive outlook
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Price Analysis: Focus now shifted to 1.1170
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar dominates, gold shines as coronavirus rages in the US, triple data release eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Price Analysis: Rising bets for a test of 1.1400 and beyond
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD recedes from tops above 1.1300
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold: Falling US Real Yields fuels bull trend towards new highs at $1921 – Credit Suisse
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Risk rides the Navarro rollercoaster, Eurozone/ UK PMIs, virus stats in focus
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BoE is seen increasing further the size of QE – UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Risk-recovery back in play, US dollar recedes with second-wave virus fears
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Markets play tug-of-war with Covid-19 concerns and reopening momentum
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Coronavirus, weak data outweigh reopening optimism, BOE, jobless claims eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB's de Guindos: Better if EU aid is distributed via grants rather than loans
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD slumps toward $1,710 on improving risk sentiment
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar up as health, geopolitics replace consumer optimism, Powell, COVID-19 data eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold clings to modest daily gains, around $1730 area
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Double stimulus talk downs dollar ahead of Powell's power-play, US retail sales
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Coronavirus concerns trigger dollar domination, commodity currencies climb down
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Market Recovery Under Threat?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Houston, we have a problem, US coronavirus, Fed gloom, crash markets, consumers eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Obsessed
Killing Hope ( Before it Kills You )
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Euro Fails at Resistance as Federal Reserve Expands Lending Program
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Can the dollar lick its wounds? Fed speculation, geopolitics, and data eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD: Brexit, coronavirus and protests to pressure the pound
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold: The beginning of the end, $1600 by Q3
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar looking for a new direction after the excellent Non-Farm Payrolls, Lagarde eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – The Recovery Continues
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: 1.1333 initial target reached, aims 1.1495 March peak – Commerzbank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Crude Oil Futures: Cautiously positive
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Risk-on mood continues downing the dollar and yen, will Non-Farm Payrolls change that?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Breaking: ECB leaves key rates unchanged, expands PEPP by €600 billion
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB press conference: Lagarde speech live stream – June 4
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar struggles to recover as US protests calm, data beats, all eyes on ECB stimulus
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Room for further gains, albeit with a temporary retreat
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD drops back to $1720 amid risk-on rally in equities
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: US unrest? Stocks remain restless, extend surge, dollar dives to new lows, top NFP hints eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD finds resistance near $1,745, drops toward $1,730
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Russian oil output falls to 9.39 million bpd in May, close to OPEC+ goal – Interfax
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD: Brexit breakthrough and US demonstrations over George Floyd death to boost the pound
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Sino-US Tensions Come to the Fore
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Crude Oil Futures: Look neutral near-term
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Only a correction? Dollar trying to lick its wounds amid Sino-American tensions
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
Archiving Inactive Accounts & Server Boost
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Trump urges states to open ‘ASAP’ as Dow surges
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Price Analysis: Battle lines well-defined, can it break higher?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Vaccine, Opening optimism overwhelms dollar, Sino-American tensions ignored (for now)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: At risk of extending its slide
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Russia to temporarily ban oil product imports – Interfax
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar in demand amid high Sino-American tensions, thin liquidity expected
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Reopening Momentum and China in focus
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BOE’s Ramsden: It is reasonable to have an open mind on negative rates
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOMC minutes: Ready to pump in extra stimulus – UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Oil prices tumble alongside global equities amid fears about China turbulence
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
PBoC keeps extra easing on the table – UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US Dollar Index Price Analysis: Door open to further retracements
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Rally Loses Steam
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US Crude Oil Stocks Change at -5 million barrels in week ending May 15
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold: Investors continue buying the yellow metal
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar decline resumes after breather due to vaccine doubts, Fed remains in focus
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Powell speech: Continuing to look at ways to accommodate additional borrowers
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Reasons for the US dollar weakness
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Price Analysis: Needs to recapture $1,747 to resume rally
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
After two months, regulators remove short-selling bans
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: The downside is more appealing than the upside
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Play down Powell and risk-on, markets also ignore Sino-American tensions, gold shines
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – More Easing on the Way
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
UK: Major downgrade to the GDP forecast – ABN Amro
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
RBNZ: Rates on hold, QE expanded – UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar dominates after Powell's push back, darkening global clouds, ahead of claims
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EIA: US Crude Oil Stocks Change at -0.7 million barrels in week ending May 8
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Breaking: FOMC Chairman Powell says additional policy measures may be needed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Euro Latest: EUR/USD Could Break Lower, Powell Speech in Focus
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Oil storage crisis fading on global production cuts and recovering demand
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Fed's Bullard: Cannot continue economic shutdown for too long
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Price Analysis: Sustains the bounce above $1700 ahead of US CPI
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold trades with modest gains, just above $1700 mark
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US Dollar in Favour vs EUR/USD & GBP/USD, CHF Bulls Rise - COT Report
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Markets shrug off horrible US jobs data, Bitcoin tumbles ahead of halving, lockdowns eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Reopening economies appear to be the only trade in town
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold retreats from daily highs, steadies above $1,710
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Oil: A drop in value does not mean it is a bargain
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
NFP: The worst report is the best for the US dollar
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Australia heads for worst GDP contraction since at least 1960
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold rallies to fresh highs for the month as US dollar and US yields sink
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613