something interesting

<  BACK TO Market Analysis

PIG TODAY-How the Rest of the World Paved the Way for a March Fed Hike

In just a week, markets went from doubting a March rate increase to viewing one as a sure bet. The central bank's top brass engineered the change by speaking in favor of a hike, culminating in Fed Chair Janet Yellen's endorsement on Friday.

What changed to push central bank policy makers from the neutral stance that Fed-watchers saw in their January meeting minutes to the brink of a rate increase? Not much, if you're looking at U.S. data. The fact that nothing deteriorated was enough to clear the hurdle for a March rate move, especially because steady domestic data have come alongside a slowly-improving international outlook – a major shift from the situation at this time last year, when global risks helped to stay the Fed's hand.

The charts below illustrate the steady U.S. economy and sunnier international situation that have given policy makers the confidence to prime markets for a March 15 hike.

U.S. data: good enough

"There is almost no economic indicator that has come in badly in the last three months," Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said Friday at a forum hosted by the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business. Likewise, Yellen said employment and inflation are evolving in line with the Federal Open Market Committee's expectations. As you can see below, while prices haven't broken out dramatically to the upside, they're still moving toward the Fed's goals.

Unemployment has "essentially met" what officials see as full employment, Yellen said Friday. Low joblessness isn't a major change from last year, though wages are very slowly crawling higher, suggesting that the labor market is getting tighter.

And the outlook for output growth hasn't changed much. New York Fed President William Dudley said the economy is still on about a 2 percent growth track, speaking in a CNN interview on Feb. 28. He then signaled a willingness to raise rates soon.

In short, the U.S. economy isn't experiencing a breakout moment, but it's holding up. Evidently, that's all the Fed needed to see.

The global outlook has shifted, if you listen to Yellen and Governor Lael Brainard. In 2016, the Fed entered the year looking to raise rates, but tumult in Chinese markets and Britain's vote to exit the European Union helped to keep them on hold until December.

This year, "the prospects for further moderate economic growth look encouraging, particularly as risks emanating from abroad appear to have receded somewhat,” Yellen said Friday.

"Foreign growth is on more solid footing and risks to the outlook are as close to balanced as they have been in some time," Brainard said March 1.

Yellen said China "has continued to grow and its management of its currency has been better understood and led to less volatility,'' while Brainard said government officials there had “stabilized growth and calmed fears of financial instability." In the chart below, you can see as the economic environment stabilizes, China's manufacturing sector is posting gradually better results.

Yellen noted that Brexit negotiations and concerns about European integration could continue to pose a risk, but Brainard said Europe's "recovery has proven to be increasingly resilient.''

Euro area headline inflation has been climbing, providing fresh arguments to those calling for an exit from the European Central Bank’s monetary stimulus program, though core inflation remains below 1 percent.  Euro-area unemployment was unchanged at 9.6 percent in January, the lowest since May 2009.

At the end of the day, it wasn't an outsize improvement in data at home that dealt the Fed a winning hand in early 2017: growth remains in a holding pattern, progress in headline inflation is energy-tied, and the job market is growing at a similar clip to last year. And while domestic fiscal policy seems increasingly likely to turn stimulative as President Donald Trump promises tax cuts and infrastructure spending, Yellen and her colleagues say it's too early to take that into account when setting policy.

What has changed significantly is that threats from abroad are looking less scary. As long as that remains the case and U.S. data remain steady between now and March 15, the Fed appears poised for its first non-December rate increase since June 2006.

Source: bloomberg.com

In just a week, markets went from doubting a March rate increase to viewing one as a sure bet. The central bank's top brass engineered the change by speaking in favor of a hike, culminating in Fed Chair Janet Yellen's endorsement on Friday.

What changed to push central bank policy makers from the neutral stance that Fed-watchers saw in their January meeting minutes to the brink of a rate increase? Not much, if you're looking at U.S. data. The fact that nothing deteriorated was enough to clear the hurdle for a March rate move, especially because steady domestic data have come alongside a slowly-improving international outlook – a major shift from the situation at this time last year, when global risks helped to stay the Fed's hand.

The charts below illustrate the steady U.S. economy and sunnier international situation that have given policy makers the confidence to prime markets for a March 15 hike.

U.S. data: good enough

"There is almost no economic indicator that has come in badly in the last three months," Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said Friday at a forum hosted by the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business. Likewise, Yellen said employment and inflation are evolving in line with the Federal Open Market Committee's expectations. As you can see below, while prices haven't broken out dramatically to the upside, they're still moving toward the Fed's goals.

Unemployment has "essentially met" what officials see as full employment, Yellen said Friday. Low joblessness isn't a major change from last year, though wages are very slowly crawling higher, suggesting that the labor market is getting tighter.

And the outlook for output growth hasn't changed much. New York Fed President William Dudley said the economy is still on about a 2 percent growth track, speaking in a CNN interview on Feb. 28. He then signaled a willingness to raise rates soon.

In short, the U.S. economy isn't experiencing a breakout moment, but it's holding up. Evidently, that's all the Fed needed to see.

The global outlook has shifted, if you listen to Yellen and Governor Lael Brainard. In 2016, the Fed entered the year looking to raise rates, but tumult in Chinese markets and Britain's vote to exit the European Union helped to keep them on hold until December.

This year, "the prospects for further moderate economic growth look encouraging, particularly as risks emanating from abroad appear to have receded somewhat,” Yellen said Friday.

"Foreign growth is on more solid footing and risks to the outlook are as close to balanced as they have been in some time," Brainard said March 1.

Yellen said China "has continued to grow and its management of its currency has been better understood and led to less volatility,'' while Brainard said government officials there had “stabilized growth and calmed fears of financial instability." In the chart below, you can see as the economic environment stabilizes, China's manufacturing sector is posting gradually better results.

Yellen noted that Brexit negotiations and concerns about European integration could continue to pose a risk, but Brainard said Europe's "recovery has proven to be increasingly resilient.''

Euro area headline inflation has been climbing, providing fresh arguments to those calling for an exit from the European Central Bank’s monetary stimulus program, though core inflation remains below 1 percent.  Euro-area unemployment was unchanged at 9.6 percent in January, the lowest since May 2009.

At the end of the day, it wasn't an outsize improvement in data at home that dealt the Fed a winning hand in early 2017: growth remains in a holding pattern, progress in headline inflation is energy-tied, and the job market is growing at a similar clip to last year. And while domestic fiscal policy seems increasingly likely to turn stimulative as President Donald Trump promises tax cuts and infrastructure spending, Yellen and her colleagues say it's too early to take that into account when setting policy.

What has changed significantly is that threats from abroad are looking less scary. As long as that remains the case and U.S. data remain steady between now and March 15, the Fed appears poised for its first non-December rate increase since June 2006.

Source: bloomberg.com

lastest Articles

Market Analysis
Gold Price Analysis: Ample liquidity opens door to higher levels
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD May Fall on Covid-19 Eurozone Finance Minister Meeting
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar falls, gold up amid upbeat COVID-19 data, Boris' ICU stay causing concerns
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Futures: Extra gains losing traction
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Markets cheering upbeat European coronavirus news, pound worried about Boris, oil eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – World battles spread of Covid-19 and its economic destruction, a bigger OPEC +cut deal, and big bank stress tests
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Five reasons to drag the pair down
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Bearish sign
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
S&P: Major Aussie banks not at risk of downgrade amid pandemic
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: New quarter, same market gloom as coronavirus spreads, critical US data eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar Index: 2008/09 parallels point to sustained USD strength – Westpac
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Crude prices rebound after tapping 18-year low
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD needs to hold onto support at 1.0972 to weather the dollar storm
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Bearish pressure eased
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: King Dollar takes back the reins as coronavirus fears mount, oil slumps; eyes on German CPI
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Virus Watch, China data to rebound while the world braces for pain, and why the dollar looks so vulnerable
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Will King Dollar be re-coronated after the plunge? Virus, consumer data, eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Prices Steady Despite Increased Coronavirus Stimulus Hopes
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar dumping extends, US coronavirus cases top China’s; US House vote eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Watching if bulls are able to capitalize the momentum
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Crude Oil Pares Gains As Nervous Market Looks To US Jobless Claims
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: EUR, JPY in the lead after Senate's stamp, ahead of horrible US jobless claims, BOE
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: The picture is improving
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Futures: Upside looks capped
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Senate strikes stimulus, stocks may sell the fact, dollar pressured, coronavirus data eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
S&P 500 futures jump 5% and hit the limit-up band of 2,333.50
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD bulls looking to extend the momentum beyond 1.1700 mark
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD firmer above 1.0800 post-PMIs
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: 35-year uptrend breached – Commerzbank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: New week, same corona carnage, dollar down vs. majors, excels elsewhere, US Senate eye
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week ahead – Tougher times ahead?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold rallies further beyond $1500 mark, fresh session tops
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB’s stimulus package: Lagarde’s “Whatever it Takes” moment – UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar takes a breather, coronavirus claims 10,000 lives, “quadruple witching” eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Canada: BoC to keep the system running – RBC Economics
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Oil: Several OPEC members calling for new action – ANZ
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Euro at Risk Ahead of German IFO Data and SNB Rate Decision
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Crude Oil Futures: Still scope for a rebound… but when?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold slides further below $1500 mark, losing around 2.5% for the day
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Base metals: Sign of weakening demand emerging – ANZ
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Typical dead cat bounce ove
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Prices Slide Again As Coronavirus Prompts Cash Raising
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar dominant as markets bounce after Trump's recession talk, focus on fiscal stimulus
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BoJ Governor Kuroda: Possible to deepen negative interest rates further
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Faced rejection near the 1.1200 round-figure mark
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Fed and BOJ to add more to the punchbowl, Virus disruption, and a fourth week of heightened volatility
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US: Fed to cut 100bps at its next meeting – Deutsche Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB: EUR/USD heading lower as looks for fiscal measures – Danske Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold: Wave of selling also hit the yellow metal
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold surrenders early gains, back near $1640 level despite coronavirus-led jitters
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Trump fails to reassure coronavirus-concerned America, stocks down, gold up, ECB eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Euro Analysis Ahead of ECB Rate Decision and Lagarde Outlook
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Price Pullback Fizzles Amid Speculation for More Fed Rate Cuts
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Breaking: GBP/USD tumbles as BOE surprises with 50bp cut to 0.25% ahead of UK budget
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Yen rallies hard as US stimulus doubts, coronavirus fears hit stocks, USD and yields
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD resuming rise amid doubts over US fiscal stimulus
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar dominates after the coronavirus crash amid Trump's tax promises, Chinese hopes
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Global shares plunge in worst day since financial crisis
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Monday mayhem, wild currency moves, Gold fakeout, oil -30%, amid coronavirus panic
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Oil Prices Crash 25% As Oil War Begins
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
Time to Spring Forward
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week ahead – Market volatility here to stay
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
The Fed could cut rates further at the March meeting – UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold remains confined in a range, around $1640
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD flirting with daily highs around 1.1140
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD – Euro Rally May Just Be Getting Started vs US Dollar
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US Pres. Trump: Fed should ease and “cut rate big”
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BoE's Tenreyro: Important to highlight that we were not in a rush to raise interest rates
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Coronavirus update: First confirmed case in London, total infections in Iran at 1,501
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Upside stalled just ahead of the 200-day SMA
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Central Banks, OPEC + and Governments prepare to cushion the coronavirus impact
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US: Markets not focused on Super Tuesday
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB's Vasiliauskas says extraordinary meeting may be called over coronavirus, EUR/USD off the highs
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Markets in freefall: Carney warns UK faces downgrade over coronavirus – latest updates
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB's Schnabel: Coronavirus increased uncertainty about global growth outlook
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD now looks to 1.0925 – UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold clings to gains near session tops, around $1650 region
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Coronavirus clobbers markets, dollar on the defensive (for now), Bitcoin battered
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Euro Outlook Somber as COVID-19 Threatens EU Corporate Debt
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold corrects further from multi-year tops, slides to $1635 area
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Turn-up Tuesday? Dollar, stocks bouncing, Gold down, after coronavirus-related plunge
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Decline is challenging the 200-day SMA
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US Dollar Index Price Analysis: Still scope for a move to 100.00
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week ahead – Race to face the Don
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FED: Three arguments for a rate cut – Nordea
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Breaking: EUR/USD jumps above 1.08 as German Manufacturing PMI beats with 47.8
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
FXSniper X2 Risk Available in EURO Now
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD: Overnight sharp fall
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Long-term extremes for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, Gold amid coronavirus fears, USD rally
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Asian stocks slip as virus' regional spread spooks investors
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Futures: Green light for extra gains
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Possible test of 1.06 – Danske Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Yen slips as risk recovers on fading coronavirus fears; UK CPI – up next
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
RBA Minutes: Prepared to ease monetary policy further – ANZ
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BoJ expected to ease further into 2020 – UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Risk sold amid coronavirus-led rising economic costs; a busy docket ahead
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
EuroHook Pamm - The Fishermans's Bastion
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: A bottom looks closer – UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Turning a Corner on COVID-19
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Oil: Energy sector up
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613