something interesting

<  BACK TO Market Analysis

With investors already banking on the Federal Reserve lifting interest rates next week, attention has shifted to whether the central bank has fallen behind in its quest to keep inflation from rising too quickly.

The answer will become clearer Friday when the February jobs report lands at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. While the reaction in fed funds futures will tell a large part of the tale, keep an eye on the spread between yields on five- and 10-year U.S. Treasury notes to gauge how investors are thinking about longer-term inflation risks.

The spread has narrowed over the last two weeks as Fed policy makers have talked up the possibility of a March rate hike, suggesting investors don’t believe for now that the central bank risks falling behind the curve with regard to inflation. The difference, at about 47 basis points, dipped into negative territory near the end of the Fed’s previous two hiking cycles.

The narrowing gap "points to a decline in inflation risk, which is a function of whether policy is loose or tight," said Vince Foster, a portfolio manager at Southern Bancorp in Little Rock, Arkansas. "If the Fed were truly behind the curve on tightening policy, these markets would be pricing in elevated inflation risk premiums."

The jobs report is expected to show employers hired 200,000 workers last month, according to the median estimate of 85 economists polled by Bloomberg. Growth in average hourly earnings is expected to have accelerated to 2.7 percent, from January’s 2.5 percent pace.

Investors have good reason to be on guard. A report published Wednesday by ADP Research Institute in Roseland, New Jersey, suggests those estimates may be too low. It showed private-sector employers added 298,000 workers to payrolls in February, marking the biggest monthly gain in nearly three years. Goods-producing industries led the way with the largest surge in employment on record in 15 years of data, on strength in construction and manufacturing.

Construction and manufacturing are two above average wage sectors of the economy that have seen a significant slowdown in job growth over the last year or two. A turnaround in the Labor Department data of the kind the ADP data hint at would probably give the Fed further confidence to follow up a rate hike this month with another this summer.

Even if Friday’s report is unlikely to change the odds of a rate hike next week, the implications for Fed officials and their plans for the rest of the year will be apparent in the market for futures contracts tied to the U.S. central bank’s benchmark federal funds rate.

If strong data lead investors to believe an additional hike sometime at one of the Fed’s next three meetings in May, June and July is more likely, the yield implied by the August federal funds futures contract will move closer to 1.16 percent, where the rate would settle following another increase. Right now, the spread between the rates implied by the April and August contracts implies roughly two-to-one odds of an increase over the summer.

Those odds are down slightly from where they were two weeks ago, before Fed officials signaled that a March rate hike was probable, whereas investors had previously seen such a development as unlikely.

The reaction of inflation-protected Treasury yields to the report could also contain clues as to whether investors agree with the Fed’s normalization plans. Should a disappointing number spark a sharp decline in so-called real rates, it could imply that investors are worried that the telegraphed March hike represents a policy mistake that risks snuffing out the expansion. Conversely, an increase in inflation-protected Treasury yields amid resilience in equities would suggest that the central bank has more room to continue its tightening cycle without markets worrying about an imminent recession.Source: bloomberg.com

With investors already banking on the Federal Reserve lifting interest rates next week, attention has shifted to whether the central bank has fallen behind in its quest to keep inflation from rising too quickly.

The answer will become clearer Friday when the February jobs report lands at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. While the reaction in fed funds futures will tell a large part of the tale, keep an eye on the spread between yields on five- and 10-year U.S. Treasury notes to gauge how investors are thinking about longer-term inflation risks.

The spread has narrowed over the last two weeks as Fed policy makers have talked up the possibility of a March rate hike, suggesting investors don’t believe for now that the central bank risks falling behind the curve with regard to inflation. The difference, at about 47 basis points, dipped into negative territory near the end of the Fed’s previous two hiking cycles.

The narrowing gap "points to a decline in inflation risk, which is a function of whether policy is loose or tight," said Vince Foster, a portfolio manager at Southern Bancorp in Little Rock, Arkansas. "If the Fed were truly behind the curve on tightening policy, these markets would be pricing in elevated inflation risk premiums."

The jobs report is expected to show employers hired 200,000 workers last month, according to the median estimate of 85 economists polled by Bloomberg. Growth in average hourly earnings is expected to have accelerated to 2.7 percent, from January’s 2.5 percent pace.

Investors have good reason to be on guard. A report published Wednesday by ADP Research Institute in Roseland, New Jersey, suggests those estimates may be too low. It showed private-sector employers added 298,000 workers to payrolls in February, marking the biggest monthly gain in nearly three years. Goods-producing industries led the way with the largest surge in employment on record in 15 years of data, on strength in construction and manufacturing.

Construction and manufacturing are two above average wage sectors of the economy that have seen a significant slowdown in job growth over the last year or two. A turnaround in the Labor Department data of the kind the ADP data hint at would probably give the Fed further confidence to follow up a rate hike this month with another this summer.

Even if Friday’s report is unlikely to change the odds of a rate hike next week, the implications for Fed officials and their plans for the rest of the year will be apparent in the market for futures contracts tied to the U.S. central bank’s benchmark federal funds rate.

If strong data lead investors to believe an additional hike sometime at one of the Fed’s next three meetings in May, June and July is more likely, the yield implied by the August federal funds futures contract will move closer to 1.16 percent, where the rate would settle following another increase. Right now, the spread between the rates implied by the April and August contracts implies roughly two-to-one odds of an increase over the summer.

Those odds are down slightly from where they were two weeks ago, before Fed officials signaled that a March rate hike was probable, whereas investors had previously seen such a development as unlikely.

The reaction of inflation-protected Treasury yields to the report could also contain clues as to whether investors agree with the Fed’s normalization plans. Should a disappointing number spark a sharp decline in so-called real rates, it could imply that investors are worried that the telegraphed March hike represents a policy mistake that risks snuffing out the expansion. Conversely, an increase in inflation-protected Treasury yields amid resilience in equities would suggest that the central bank has more room to continue its tightening cycle without markets worrying about an imminent recession.Source: bloomberg.com

lastest Articles

Market Analysis
Oil: Significant surplus to stay
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold holds steady above $1650 level, lacks follow-through amid stronger USD
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB told ministers EZ financing needs to address coronavirus crisis could be up to EUR1.5 trillion
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Price Analysis: Ample liquidity opens door to higher levels
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD May Fall on Covid-19 Eurozone Finance Minister Meeting
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar falls, gold up amid upbeat COVID-19 data, Boris' ICU stay causing concerns
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Futures: Extra gains losing traction
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Markets cheering upbeat European coronavirus news, pound worried about Boris, oil eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – World battles spread of Covid-19 and its economic destruction, a bigger OPEC +cut deal, and big bank stress tests
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Five reasons to drag the pair down
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Bearish sign
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
S&P: Major Aussie banks not at risk of downgrade amid pandemic
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: New quarter, same market gloom as coronavirus spreads, critical US data eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar Index: 2008/09 parallels point to sustained USD strength – Westpac
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Crude prices rebound after tapping 18-year low
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD needs to hold onto support at 1.0972 to weather the dollar storm
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Bearish pressure eased
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: King Dollar takes back the reins as coronavirus fears mount, oil slumps; eyes on German CPI
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Virus Watch, China data to rebound while the world braces for pain, and why the dollar looks so vulnerable
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Will King Dollar be re-coronated after the plunge? Virus, consumer data, eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Prices Steady Despite Increased Coronavirus Stimulus Hopes
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar dumping extends, US coronavirus cases top China’s; US House vote eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Watching if bulls are able to capitalize the momentum
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Crude Oil Pares Gains As Nervous Market Looks To US Jobless Claims
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: EUR, JPY in the lead after Senate's stamp, ahead of horrible US jobless claims, BOE
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: The picture is improving
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Futures: Upside looks capped
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Senate strikes stimulus, stocks may sell the fact, dollar pressured, coronavirus data eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
S&P 500 futures jump 5% and hit the limit-up band of 2,333.50
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD bulls looking to extend the momentum beyond 1.1700 mark
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD firmer above 1.0800 post-PMIs
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: 35-year uptrend breached – Commerzbank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: New week, same corona carnage, dollar down vs. majors, excels elsewhere, US Senate eye
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week ahead – Tougher times ahead?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold rallies further beyond $1500 mark, fresh session tops
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB’s stimulus package: Lagarde’s “Whatever it Takes” moment – UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar takes a breather, coronavirus claims 10,000 lives, “quadruple witching” eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Canada: BoC to keep the system running – RBC Economics
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Oil: Several OPEC members calling for new action – ANZ
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Euro at Risk Ahead of German IFO Data and SNB Rate Decision
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Crude Oil Futures: Still scope for a rebound… but when?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold slides further below $1500 mark, losing around 2.5% for the day
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Base metals: Sign of weakening demand emerging – ANZ
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Typical dead cat bounce ove
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Prices Slide Again As Coronavirus Prompts Cash Raising
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar dominant as markets bounce after Trump's recession talk, focus on fiscal stimulus
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BoJ Governor Kuroda: Possible to deepen negative interest rates further
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Faced rejection near the 1.1200 round-figure mark
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Fed and BOJ to add more to the punchbowl, Virus disruption, and a fourth week of heightened volatility
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US: Fed to cut 100bps at its next meeting – Deutsche Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB: EUR/USD heading lower as looks for fiscal measures – Danske Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold: Wave of selling also hit the yellow metal
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold surrenders early gains, back near $1640 level despite coronavirus-led jitters
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Trump fails to reassure coronavirus-concerned America, stocks down, gold up, ECB eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Euro Analysis Ahead of ECB Rate Decision and Lagarde Outlook
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Price Pullback Fizzles Amid Speculation for More Fed Rate Cuts
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Breaking: GBP/USD tumbles as BOE surprises with 50bp cut to 0.25% ahead of UK budget
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Yen rallies hard as US stimulus doubts, coronavirus fears hit stocks, USD and yields
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD resuming rise amid doubts over US fiscal stimulus
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar dominates after the coronavirus crash amid Trump's tax promises, Chinese hopes
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Global shares plunge in worst day since financial crisis
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Monday mayhem, wild currency moves, Gold fakeout, oil -30%, amid coronavirus panic
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Oil Prices Crash 25% As Oil War Begins
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
Time to Spring Forward
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week ahead – Market volatility here to stay
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
The Fed could cut rates further at the March meeting – UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold remains confined in a range, around $1640
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD flirting with daily highs around 1.1140
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD – Euro Rally May Just Be Getting Started vs US Dollar
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US Pres. Trump: Fed should ease and “cut rate big”
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BoE's Tenreyro: Important to highlight that we were not in a rush to raise interest rates
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Coronavirus update: First confirmed case in London, total infections in Iran at 1,501
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Upside stalled just ahead of the 200-day SMA
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Central Banks, OPEC + and Governments prepare to cushion the coronavirus impact
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US: Markets not focused on Super Tuesday
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB's Vasiliauskas says extraordinary meeting may be called over coronavirus, EUR/USD off the highs
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Markets in freefall: Carney warns UK faces downgrade over coronavirus – latest updates
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB's Schnabel: Coronavirus increased uncertainty about global growth outlook
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD now looks to 1.0925 – UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold clings to gains near session tops, around $1650 region
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Coronavirus clobbers markets, dollar on the defensive (for now), Bitcoin battered
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Euro Outlook Somber as COVID-19 Threatens EU Corporate Debt
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold corrects further from multi-year tops, slides to $1635 area
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Turn-up Tuesday? Dollar, stocks bouncing, Gold down, after coronavirus-related plunge
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Decline is challenging the 200-day SMA
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US Dollar Index Price Analysis: Still scope for a move to 100.00
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week ahead – Race to face the Don
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FED: Three arguments for a rate cut – Nordea
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Breaking: EUR/USD jumps above 1.08 as German Manufacturing PMI beats with 47.8
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
FXSniper X2 Risk Available in EURO Now
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD: Overnight sharp fall
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Long-term extremes for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, Gold amid coronavirus fears, USD rally
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Asian stocks slip as virus' regional spread spooks investors
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Futures: Green light for extra gains
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Possible test of 1.06 – Danske Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Yen slips as risk recovers on fading coronavirus fears; UK CPI – up next
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
RBA Minutes: Prepared to ease monetary policy further – ANZ
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BoJ expected to ease further into 2020 – UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Risk sold amid coronavirus-led rising economic costs; a busy docket ahead
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
EuroHook Pamm - The Fishermans's Bastion
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613