something interesting

<  BACK TO Market Analysis

PIG TODAY -Do you want to know where Morgan Stanley want to go long USDJPY again?

USD perma-bulls are lining up another long

Our old mates at Morgan Stanley are drooling over another long USDJPY trade. On their last outing they went long at 112.50 looking for 120.00 but bailed at 113.12. (a good profit in anyone's book).

This week they write the recent falls off as increased Japanese hedging.

"Buying the USDJPY dip. A deeper dive into the JPY shows Japan has turned FX risk averse Hedging activity has been the driver of JPY strength. However, US interest rates should increase over time, suggesting higher hedging costs. Once we see inflows into JPY-denominated money markets slowing, the JPY is likely to fall. We suggest buying USDJPY on the dip to 109.50."

Further on they go into greater detail and do a fine job of explaining the mechanics behind Japanese hedging;

"Bottom Line: We suggest buying the USDJPY dip. In December last year, the wide USDJPY basis acted like a 'tax' on FX-hedged foreign asset positions of Japan-based investors. For Japanese investors to hedge, they had to borrow the foreign currency (say USD) to sell. That USD is more expensive if the basis is wide. Today as fiscal year end approaches, the basis has narrowed, unleashing pent-up hedging activities, pushing the JPY higher. This hedging is however limited up to the desired hedge ratio for current foreign asset holdings. The life insurance company USD hedge ratio has reached pre-Abenomics levels already. When the Fed hikes rates further, hedging costs will increase, suggesting the hedging ratio will fall again. The recent increase of JPY money market holdings by foreign entities has created a pool of funds which may have been already converted into USD offshore liquidity. Once foreign-funded JPY money market holdings start to decline, the JPY will come under selling pressure again."

Morgan's are looking to buy USDJPY at 109.50 with a 118.00 target and 108.20 stop.

They are also still running their AUDUSD short but have pulled their stop down from 0.7800 to 0.7760 (but don't explain why).

"We continue to hold this position following the weak labour market data for Feb, and as iron ore prices have started to decline. In particular we watch for the seasonality in Chinese commodity purchases, which have historically peaked around March. Iron ore prices have already started weakening. Our China property leading index is also pointing to weaker new starts in 2Q17, which may reduce the support for commodities. The RBA appears to be on hold with rates for the moment but could change should terms of trade and employment data weaken. Sydney house prices continue to soar, and we know the RBA are concerned about this. Our economists see a slowdown in the housing market as a major indication for the RBA to consider cutting rates in the future. The risk to our trade is that iron ore prices start rising again due to stockpiling."

Here's their brief for the majors.

Source: forexlive.com

USD perma-bulls are lining up another long

Our old mates at Morgan Stanley are drooling over another long USDJPY trade. On their last outing they went long at 112.50 looking for 120.00 but bailed at 113.12. (a good profit in anyone's book).

This week they write the recent falls off as increased Japanese hedging.

"Buying the USDJPY dip. A deeper dive into the JPY shows Japan has turned FX risk averse Hedging activity has been the driver of JPY strength. However, US interest rates should increase over time, suggesting higher hedging costs. Once we see inflows into JPY-denominated money markets slowing, the JPY is likely to fall. We suggest buying USDJPY on the dip to 109.50."

Further on they go into greater detail and do a fine job of explaining the mechanics behind Japanese hedging;

"Bottom Line: We suggest buying the USDJPY dip. In December last year, the wide USDJPY basis acted like a 'tax' on FX-hedged foreign asset positions of Japan-based investors. For Japanese investors to hedge, they had to borrow the foreign currency (say USD) to sell. That USD is more expensive if the basis is wide. Today as fiscal year end approaches, the basis has narrowed, unleashing pent-up hedging activities, pushing the JPY higher. This hedging is however limited up to the desired hedge ratio for current foreign asset holdings. The life insurance company USD hedge ratio has reached pre-Abenomics levels already. When the Fed hikes rates further, hedging costs will increase, suggesting the hedging ratio will fall again. The recent increase of JPY money market holdings by foreign entities has created a pool of funds which may have been already converted into USD offshore liquidity. Once foreign-funded JPY money market holdings start to decline, the JPY will come under selling pressure again."

Morgan's are looking to buy USDJPY at 109.50 with a 118.00 target and 108.20 stop.

They are also still running their AUDUSD short but have pulled their stop down from 0.7800 to 0.7760 (but don't explain why).

"We continue to hold this position following the weak labour market data for Feb, and as iron ore prices have started to decline. In particular we watch for the seasonality in Chinese commodity purchases, which have historically peaked around March. Iron ore prices have already started weakening. Our China property leading index is also pointing to weaker new starts in 2Q17, which may reduce the support for commodities. The RBA appears to be on hold with rates for the moment but could change should terms of trade and employment data weaken. Sydney house prices continue to soar, and we know the RBA are concerned about this. Our economists see a slowdown in the housing market as a major indication for the RBA to consider cutting rates in the future. The risk to our trade is that iron ore prices start rising again due to stockpiling."

Here's their brief for the majors.

Source: forexlive.com

lastest Articles

Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Cause for optimism
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead - Stimulus battle continues
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Volatility going nowhere
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Earnings to dominate
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – The final stretch
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Fed Preview: The dollar has room to rise on upbeat projections and the lack of stimulus
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD battles 200-SMA on 4H chart, US stimulus, Fed eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Vaccine, Dollar depressed on vaccine, Brexit and US stimulus hopes, Fed in focus
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Canada: Manufacturing Sales rise by 0.3% to $54.1 billion in October
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD jumps to fresh session tops, further beyond mid-1.3300s
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Gold recovers on US stimulus hopes, dollar off the highs, Brexit, vaccine news eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD trims gains and drops toward 1.2120
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Last full week of 2020 kicks off with Brexit and US stimulus optimism
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Deal or no deal
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: ECB gives a boost to the euro, rally to run towards 2020 high at 1.2177
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Lagarde speech: Euro area economy is seen shrinking in Q4
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dual talks' deadlock weighs on markets ahead of expected ECB stimulus, FDA vaccine seal
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Vaccine deployments, Brexit continue to rule the sentiment
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Rising Sino-American tensions curb vaccine and stimulus enthusiasm, Brexit eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Time for compromise
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar bounces amid vaccine, stimulus concerns ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Nonfarm Payrolls Preview: Another dollar’s disappointment underway
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD jumps to three-month tops, around 1.3440 region
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar remains on the back foot as two hopes clash with two concerns, data eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US Dollar Index Price Analysis: Further decline targets 90.00
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD’s rebound stalls below $1800 ahead of US data, Powell
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: New month, fresh market gains, PMIs, Powell's testimony and Brexit eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB's Lagarde: Fiscal package must not be delayed significantly
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Forecast: Fakeout at 1.20? Why the euro may suffer a downward correction
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Gold melts, dollar declines, Brexit and OPEC headlines eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – We Go Again
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Five reasons to drag the pair down
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Bearish sign
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
S&P: Major Aussie banks not at risk of downgrade amid pandemic
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: New quarter, same market gloom as coronavirus spreads, critical US data eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar Index: 2008/09 parallels point to sustained USD strength – Westpac
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Crude prices rebound after tapping 18-year low
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD needs to hold onto support at 1.0972 to weather the dollar storm
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Bearish pressure eased
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: King Dollar takes back the reins as coronavirus fears mount, oil slumps; eyes on German CPI
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Virus Watch, China data to rebound while the world braces for pain, and why the dollar looks so vulnerable
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Will King Dollar be re-coronated after the plunge? Virus, consumer data, eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Prices Steady Despite Increased Coronavirus Stimulus Hopes
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar dumping extends, US coronavirus cases top China’s; US House vote eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Watching if bulls are able to capitalize the momentum
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Crude Oil Pares Gains As Nervous Market Looks To US Jobless Claims
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: EUR, JPY in the lead after Senate's stamp, ahead of horrible US jobless claims, BOE
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: The picture is improving
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Futures: Upside looks capped
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Senate strikes stimulus, stocks may sell the fact, dollar pressured, coronavirus data eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
S&P 500 futures jump 5% and hit the limit-up band of 2,333.50
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD bulls looking to extend the momentum beyond 1.1700 mark
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD firmer above 1.0800 post-PMIs
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: 35-year uptrend breached – Commerzbank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: New week, same corona carnage, dollar down vs. majors, excels elsewhere, US Senate eye
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week ahead – Tougher times ahead?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold rallies further beyond $1500 mark, fresh session tops
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB’s stimulus package: Lagarde’s “Whatever it Takes” moment – UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar takes a breather, coronavirus claims 10,000 lives, “quadruple witching” eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Canada: BoC to keep the system running – RBC Economics
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Oil: Several OPEC members calling for new action – ANZ
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Euro at Risk Ahead of German IFO Data and SNB Rate Decision
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Crude Oil Futures: Still scope for a rebound… but when?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold slides further below $1500 mark, losing around 2.5% for the day
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Base metals: Sign of weakening demand emerging – ANZ
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Typical dead cat bounce ove
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Prices Slide Again As Coronavirus Prompts Cash Raising
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar dominant as markets bounce after Trump's recession talk, focus on fiscal stimulus
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BoJ Governor Kuroda: Possible to deepen negative interest rates further
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Faced rejection near the 1.1200 round-figure mark
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Fed and BOJ to add more to the punchbowl, Virus disruption, and a fourth week of heightened volatility
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US: Fed to cut 100bps at its next meeting – Deutsche Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB: EUR/USD heading lower as looks for fiscal measures – Danske Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold: Wave of selling also hit the yellow metal
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold surrenders early gains, back near $1640 level despite coronavirus-led jitters
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Trump fails to reassure coronavirus-concerned America, stocks down, gold up, ECB eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Euro Analysis Ahead of ECB Rate Decision and Lagarde Outlook
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Price Pullback Fizzles Amid Speculation for More Fed Rate Cuts
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Breaking: GBP/USD tumbles as BOE surprises with 50bp cut to 0.25% ahead of UK budget
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Yen rallies hard as US stimulus doubts, coronavirus fears hit stocks, USD and yields
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD resuming rise amid doubts over US fiscal stimulus
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar dominates after the coronavirus crash amid Trump's tax promises, Chinese hopes
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Global shares plunge in worst day since financial crisis
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Monday mayhem, wild currency moves, Gold fakeout, oil -30%, amid coronavirus panic
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Oil Prices Crash 25% As Oil War Begins
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
Time to Spring Forward
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week ahead – Market volatility here to stay
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
The Fed could cut rates further at the March meeting – UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold remains confined in a range, around $1640
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD flirting with daily highs around 1.1140
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD – Euro Rally May Just Be Getting Started vs US Dollar
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US Pres. Trump: Fed should ease and “cut rate big”
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BoE's Tenreyro: Important to highlight that we were not in a rush to raise interest rates
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Coronavirus update: First confirmed case in London, total infections in Iran at 1,501
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Upside stalled just ahead of the 200-day SMA
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Central Banks, OPEC + and Governments prepare to cushion the coronavirus impact
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US: Markets not focused on Super Tuesday
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB's Vasiliauskas says extraordinary meeting may be called over coronavirus, EUR/USD off the highs
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Markets in freefall: Carney warns UK faces downgrade over coronavirus – latest updates
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB's Schnabel: Coronavirus increased uncertainty about global growth outlook
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613