something interesting

<  BACK TO Market Analysis

PIG TODAY-GBP/USD: Trading Article 50 – 3 scenarios

 

The British government is about to make Brexit official by triggering Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty on March 29th. The historic day follows the EU Referendum held more than nine months beforehand.

On the Brexit vote, the pound crashed, and then continued to lower ground around the flash crash. PM Theresa May’s tilt to a “Hard Brexit” weighed heavily on sterling. She drew out her intent and signaled the end of March as a trigger date.

Legal and political hurdles did not stop the move and on March 29th, the UK says goodbye. This starts a 2-year period of negotiations and the EU is set to get tough. A 5-year transitional deal would be more favorable but this is far from being guaranteed.

Here are three scenarios for the momentous event:

GBP/USD – 3 scenarios

1 – Nothing at all

What will happen on the day itself? It may result in nothing at all: end-March was talked about since October and the exact date of March 29th was also reported in advance.

So in theory, the pound should move only when details about the negotiations emerge. Advances in talks should benefit the pound while frustrated talks could hurt it. And either progress or a blow up in talks could take a while. There were reports that talks would commence only in June.

In this scenario, the most recent levels remain relevant: 1.2630 on the topside and 1.2540 on the downside, as cable is confined and awaits bigger news.

2 – Short squeeze

Speculation against the pound is rife: according to CFTC data, there is a record level of pound shorts. When everybody is short, who is left to sell?

Previous episodes with the euro have often resulted in a squeeze: a sudden rush to exit these shorts resulting in a massive rise. This was also seen in the recent Fed decision. Yellen and her colleagues telegraphed a hike in a well-coordinated fashion. On hike day, the dollar actually fell. That was due to other factors as well: the Fed was dovish.

What factors could support a short squeeze of sterling? A conciliatory message from PM May or a quick positive response from EU officials such as Donald Tusk or others could alleviate fears. Even if negotiations do not start immediately, a constructive tone from both sides could start the short-squeeze fire.

In this case, GBP/USD could shoot up to an initial high of 1.2790. This was the first post-Brexit low. From there, resistance awaits at 1.2850 and then the round number of 1.30.

3 – Just short

Despite the massive short positioning, Brexit is still bad news. Similar to the scenario for a short squeeze, the tone could be negative. If the Fed had delivered a “hawkish hike” with upgraded forecasts, the dollar would have surged and we would not have seen a “buy the rumor, sell the fact”.

In this case, a tough stance from May on immigration and more importantly a willingness to suffer the consequences of staying out of the single market could hurt the pound. A negative response from Tusk could

A negative response from Tusk could exacerbate the situation. EU officials could stress that being out means receiving less than being in and hinting that the UK must be punished for the decision to leave. Deterring other countries from following suit is a not-so-hidden goal of the club.

In this case, GBP/USD could fall sharply: 1.2415 would be the initial level of support, followed by 1.2360, 1.2250, 1.21 and 1.20.

Which scenario will prevail?

With little information about the nature of the Brexit statement or the Brexit response, scenario No. 1 has the highest probability: more wait and see until the negotiations with little volatility.

However, pound/dollar enjoys quite a bit of volatility lately and markets have become more sensitive to politics. Yet again, it is hard to gauge if we will hear a positive or a negative tone.

What do you think?

Source: forexcrunch.com

 

The British government is about to make Brexit official by triggering Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty on March 29th. The historic day follows the EU Referendum held more than nine months beforehand.

On the Brexit vote, the pound crashed, and then continued to lower ground around the flash crash. PM Theresa May’s tilt to a “Hard Brexit” weighed heavily on sterling. She drew out her intent and signaled the end of March as a trigger date.

Legal and political hurdles did not stop the move and on March 29th, the UK says goodbye. This starts a 2-year period of negotiations and the EU is set to get tough. A 5-year transitional deal would be more favorable but this is far from being guaranteed.

Here are three scenarios for the momentous event:

GBP/USD – 3 scenarios

1 – Nothing at all

What will happen on the day itself? It may result in nothing at all: end-March was talked about since October and the exact date of March 29th was also reported in advance.

So in theory, the pound should move only when details about the negotiations emerge. Advances in talks should benefit the pound while frustrated talks could hurt it. And either progress or a blow up in talks could take a while. There were reports that talks would commence only in June.

In this scenario, the most recent levels remain relevant: 1.2630 on the topside and 1.2540 on the downside, as cable is confined and awaits bigger news.

2 – Short squeeze

Speculation against the pound is rife: according to CFTC data, there is a record level of pound shorts. When everybody is short, who is left to sell?

Previous episodes with the euro have often resulted in a squeeze: a sudden rush to exit these shorts resulting in a massive rise. This was also seen in the recent Fed decision. Yellen and her colleagues telegraphed a hike in a well-coordinated fashion. On hike day, the dollar actually fell. That was due to other factors as well: the Fed was dovish.

What factors could support a short squeeze of sterling? A conciliatory message from PM May or a quick positive response from EU officials such as Donald Tusk or others could alleviate fears. Even if negotiations do not start immediately, a constructive tone from both sides could start the short-squeeze fire.

In this case, GBP/USD could shoot up to an initial high of 1.2790. This was the first post-Brexit low. From there, resistance awaits at 1.2850 and then the round number of 1.30.

3 – Just short

Despite the massive short positioning, Brexit is still bad news. Similar to the scenario for a short squeeze, the tone could be negative. If the Fed had delivered a “hawkish hike” with upgraded forecasts, the dollar would have surged and we would not have seen a “buy the rumor, sell the fact”.

In this case, a tough stance from May on immigration and more importantly a willingness to suffer the consequences of staying out of the single market could hurt the pound. A negative response from Tusk could

A negative response from Tusk could exacerbate the situation. EU officials could stress that being out means receiving less than being in and hinting that the UK must be punished for the decision to leave. Deterring other countries from following suit is a not-so-hidden goal of the club.

In this case, GBP/USD could fall sharply: 1.2415 would be the initial level of support, followed by 1.2360, 1.2250, 1.21 and 1.20.

Which scenario will prevail?

With little information about the nature of the Brexit statement or the Brexit response, scenario No. 1 has the highest probability: more wait and see until the negotiations with little volatility.

However, pound/dollar enjoys quite a bit of volatility lately and markets have become more sensitive to politics. Yet again, it is hard to gauge if we will hear a positive or a negative tone.

What do you think?

Source: forexcrunch.com

lastest Articles

Market Analysis
Gold in search of a firm direction, holds steady near $1275 area
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD remains under pressure near 1.1150 post-German GDP
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 22.05.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOMC Minutes to portray a cautious tone
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD technical analysis: Hammered down to 4-1/2 lows, vulnerable to test 1.2600 mark
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY -21.02.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
RBA: Rate cut in June and August?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD resumes the downside near 1.1150 ahead of ECB, data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB's de Cos: European financial system remains fragile
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY remains sidelined below the 123.00 handle
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD seen at 1.15 in 6-month – Danske Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/CAD Canadian Dollar Lower Despite Reaching Tariff Agreement With US
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 17.05.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold drops to session lows, retreats further below $1300 mark
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Short-term consolidation?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
JPY futures: room for further depreciation
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/TRY edging higher, approaches the 6.10 area
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
AUD/USD technical analysis: Bears flirting with 1-week old descending trend-channel support
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 14.05.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD keeps the red below mid-1.2900s, 2-week lows post-UK jobs data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Recent tops and the 55-day SMA keeps limiting extra gains
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Balance of risks still favour 1.10 in 2Q19
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY -13.05.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BoE's Broadbent: Doesn't know which way rates would go in case of a messy no-deal Brexit
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar falls as the US-China trade war intensifies
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 10.05.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Central Banks: Space to deliver more easing, if required – Standard Chartered
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY fails to extend attempted recovery beyond 110.00 mark
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 09.05.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
AUD finds little relief in RBA steady hand
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: Door open for extra losses to 128.40
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US Dollar Index probes daily tops near 97.60
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold eases from near 2-week tops, focus remains on US-China trade talks
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY in search of a firm direction, stuck in a range below 111.00 mark
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Near term bearish below the 55-day SMA at 1.1268
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Australia: Lowest real retail growth since 2012
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 06.05.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD: Short term downtrend eroded - Commerzbank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar softens on wage focus; RBA and RBNZ easing eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 03.05.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Techs lean bearish ahead of US non-farm payrolls
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Asia: Material improvement in external positions
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Technical Analysis: Falls to over 1-week lows, further slide to $1260 area now looks a distinct possibility
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY -02.05.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar rally stalls ahead of FOMC, NFP, Trade Talks, and Earnings
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Big Earnings, Rate Decisions and US GDP once markets return from holiday
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
AUD/USD inches higher to 0.7160, but lacks follow-through
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY frozen near 111.90 ahead of US housing data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Yen ignores BOJ operation, Good Friday quiet trading to extend
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD consolidates the slide near 1.1250, US retail sales eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY-18.04.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
Easter Trading Schedule
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD is holding steady
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD: Recovery towards 1.3100 on its way ahead of UK CPI
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FX Today: Antipodeans rescued by strong China data; focus on UK/ Eurozone CPI
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB said not to have discusses further deposit rate cuts
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Aussie trips on dovish RBA minutes; eyes on UK wages, German ZEW
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY -16.04.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR shorts increased, GBP shorts trimmed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Managed Forex Accounts Weekly Results- April, week 15
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar Softens Awaiting US Retail Sales
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD steadily climbs to session tops, aims to reclaim 1.3100 mark
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/GBP continues to consolidate
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY -12.04.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB: Press conference is an opportunity to inject confidence into the economy
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD continues to show signs of recovery
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY -10.04.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 09.04.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD: Upside remains capped near 1.3070 amid Brexit stalemate
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Weekly Results
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD to remain steady around the ECB meeting – Danske Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar Rises on Strong US Jobs Data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold waits for US employment data near $1290
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB unlikely to provide much in terms of steps forward
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD probing daily highs near 1.1230 ahead of NFP
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
AUD: RBA and politics to keep a lid
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 04.04.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD upside still capped by 1.1250, ECB eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 03.04.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay opens the door to a second referendum, GBP/USD holds high ground
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD rebounds to 1.1250 amid positive German yields, weaker USD
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Managed Forex Accounts Weekly Results
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Brexit amongst key market moving events today
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
April optimism could be key turning point for global growth
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/GBP breaks below the 100-day SMA to fresh lows near 0.8550
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: Set-up remains in favor of bearish traders ahead of UK macro data/Brexit vote
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 29.03.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
UK PM May's spokesman: Guaranteed way of leaving on May 22 is to win MV3 on Friday
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY finds support near 110, rebounds modestly ahead of US GDP data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 28.03.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
AUD/USD clings to gains near session tops, comfortable above 0.7100 handle
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY sticks to modest gains above 110.00 handle, but lacks follow-through
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 25.03.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar Recovers Fed Driven Losses on Safe-haven Flows
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB’s Draghi: International trade is main reason for slowdown
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BoE: No surprises here – Deutsche Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold climbs to session tops, further beyond $1310 level
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold loses momentum, edges lower toward $1300
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BOJ’s Kuroda: “We will mull more easing if price momentum is lost"
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOMC Preview: What 17 major banks are expecting from March meeting?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613