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PIG TODAY-USD: Bull Run May Be Turning; EUR/USD En-Route To 1.12 - BTMU

BTMU FX Strategy Research argues that the turning point for USD Bulls may have arrived a little earlier than what originally expected and has changed its forecast for USD predicting a period of dollar depreciation ahead.

BTMU's rationale behind this view is that some key FX themes are now working against the dollar especially when it comes to 1-  monetary divergence: as the Fed might not be viewed as the lone central bank tightening for much longer; and 2- Trump reflation expectations: as the optimism is now clearly fading in the wake of the disastrous failure of the American Health Care Act in Congress.

In particular, BTMU has revised its EUR/USD forecasts higher outlining 2 key factors for this change.

First, BTMU argues that a shift in ECB forward guidance is coming and will prove important for the EUR. Second, BTMU is less concerned over political risks in Europe given the notable lack of progress for Marine Le Pen in opinion polls.

In line with this view, BTMU now see limited downside for EUR and has raised its Q2 forecast to 1.0800 and its year-end target to 1.1200.

EUR/USD is trading circa 1.0671 as of writing.

Source: efxnews.com

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