something interesting

<  BACK TO Market Analysis

PIG TODAY-Week Ahead: FX Markets Into Next Stop: 'Grand Central' - Credit Agricole

All G10 central banks have meetings in September and next week we will hear from the ECB, the RBA, the Riksbank and the BoC. Not so long ago, having four central bank meetings in one week would have been a treat for the FX vol markets. Nowadays, however, the FX short-term vol remains close to recent lows, likely reflecting the fact that the markets expect no policy surprises. Investors may be also keeping their powder dry for the central banks’ ‘Super Wednesday’ on 21 September, when the Fed and the BoJ hold their policy meetings.

The G20 summit over the weekend could also reiterate the group’s commitment to improve policy coordination, and support flagging global investment and growth. That could boost market sentiment and brighten up the outlook for USD against safe haven currencies like JPY.

Ahead of the ECB meeting, there is a small chance that the Governing Council will extend the duration of its QE programme beyond March 2017. This could send the EUR/USD lower initially but we doubt that the pair will come under sustained selling pressure without a strong signal that the bank’s asset purchases will be expanded as well. The Riksbank should keep its policy unchanged, confirming the market view that its ability to ease further is constrained. This should help SEK consolidate.

q55.PNG

The BoC and the RBA should keep policy unchanged as well but they may signal readiness to act if domestic and global conditions were to deteriorate further. In addition, data released could highlight that the Australian recovery stalled in Q2 while conditions in the Canadian labour market remain challenging. The risks for AUD and CAD could thus be tilted to the downside vs USD next week.That said, a potential recovery of market risk sentiment in the wake of G20 could limit any selling pressure on the high-yielding and commodity G10 currencies.

GBP was buoyed by better than expected UK data of late. Further evidence that the initial Brexit shock is abating could help the currency consolidate some more across G10 FX next week. We believe it is too early to call for a turning point in the GBP outlook, however, and expect the currency to trade back closer to recent lows going into year-end.

Source: efxnews.com

All G10 central banks have meetings in September and next week we will hear from the ECB, the RBA, the Riksbank and the BoC. Not so long ago, having four central bank meetings in one week would have been a treat for the FX vol markets. Nowadays, however, the FX short-term vol remains close to recent lows, likely reflecting the fact that the markets expect no policy surprises. Investors may be also keeping their powder dry for the central banks’ ‘Super Wednesday’ on 21 September, when the Fed and the BoJ hold their policy meetings.

The G20 summit over the weekend could also reiterate the group’s commitment to improve policy coordination, and support flagging global investment and growth. That could boost market sentiment and brighten up the outlook for USD against safe haven currencies like JPY.

Ahead of the ECB meeting, there is a small chance that the Governing Council will extend the duration of its QE programme beyond March 2017. This could send the EUR/USD lower initially but we doubt that the pair will come under sustained selling pressure without a strong signal that the bank’s asset purchases will be expanded as well. The Riksbank should keep its policy unchanged, confirming the market view that its ability to ease further is constrained. This should help SEK consolidate.

q55.PNG

The BoC and the RBA should keep policy unchanged as well but they may signal readiness to act if domestic and global conditions were to deteriorate further. In addition, data released could highlight that the Australian recovery stalled in Q2 while conditions in the Canadian labour market remain challenging. The risks for AUD and CAD could thus be tilted to the downside vs USD next week.That said, a potential recovery of market risk sentiment in the wake of G20 could limit any selling pressure on the high-yielding and commodity G10 currencies.

GBP was buoyed by better than expected UK data of late. Further evidence that the initial Brexit shock is abating could help the currency consolidate some more across G10 FX next week. We believe it is too early to call for a turning point in the GBP outlook, however, and expect the currency to trade back closer to recent lows going into year-end.

Source: efxnews.com

lastest Articles

Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom:Clear Markets
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Aussie weakest in Asia risk-off, eyes on BOE inflation report hearings
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (19.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Fed's Williams: Fed to continue hiking rates along gradual path
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold ticks lower to $1220, though downside remains limited
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY (19.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
SKRILL Policy Change
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Dollar Lower Ahead of Crucial Week for Brexit and Italian Budget
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Weekly Results
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Time Off
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Draghi’s speech: Slowdown has raised questions about strength of growth outlook
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY (16.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD – Euro ticks lower, investors eye U.S retail sales
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Never Happens
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY (15.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (14.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Breaking Rules
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Gold Prices May Fall on US CPI Uptick, Hawkish Powell Comments
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD gyrates around 1.1300 ahead of EMU GDP, US CPI
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FX Today: Pound sees two-way trading in Asia, Eyes on German GDP, Brexit Cabinet meeting, UK CPI
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (13.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 13.11.2018
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Risk rebounds on easing US-China trade woes; UK wages, ZEW – Key
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (12.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US Dollar Flying High on Hawkish Fed Statement
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Trading Rule #10
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
GBP/USD challenges 1.3000 post-UK data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY retreats further from 5-week tops, at low point of the day
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (08.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: Upside capped by the 200-day SMA at 130.21
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Trading Rule #9
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Forex Today: US dollar extends post-US election recovery ahead of FOMC decision
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (07.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Crude Oil Technical Analysis: Black Gold continues its descent as bearish EIA data sends WTI to $61.00 a barrel
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Trading Rule #8
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOMC: No urgency to raise policy rates
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY ( 07.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold turns higher for the day, up little around $1235 level
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Trading Rule #7
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Forex Today: US dollar better bid heading into the US mid-term elections
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (05.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY (05.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Trading Rule #6
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
FX Today: GBP – a big mover in Asia on mixed Brexit news, focus on UK services PMI
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
It's Time To Fall Back
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Weekly Results (29.10-02.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Strong Fundamentals Boost Dollar with US Midterms in Focus
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY struggles to build on positive move beyond 113.00 handle, NFP in focus
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Trading Rule #5
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY (02.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (01.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Trading Rule #4
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Gold stages a solid rebound from 3-week lows amid notable USD supply
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY- 01.11.2018
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (31.10.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Breaking News: GBP/USD jumps as Raab says a Brexit deal is expected by November 21
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD – Euro yawns as Eurozone CPI, GDP meet forecasts
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB’s Visco: Widening of Italy-German yield spread reflects the risk of default
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Trading Rule #3
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY( 31.10.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (30.10.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY (30.10.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Trading Rule #2
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
EUR/USD still looks to a visit of 1.1315/01 – Commerzbank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Trump offers reprieve to Asia, focus shifts to Eurozone GDP, German CPI
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (29.10.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Cautious start to a Big week ahead, eyes on UK Annual Budget report
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Trading Rule #1
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 29.10.2018
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar Pays Heavy Price for Equity Sell Off
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (26.10.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/CAD Technical Analysis: Big bears offering Friday surprise as the market is reversing down sharply to 1.3050 level
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Technical Analysis: Bulls keep the trend intact as the Yellow Metal is nearing $1,250.00/oz
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY -26.10.2018
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom:Talk yourself out of bad trades
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (25.10.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY sticks to modest recovery gains, above 128.00 mark post-ECB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Judge yourself not by the outcome
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Set-up points to an extension of the bearish trend, ECB awaited
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold turns lower, hits intraday low around $1230
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY recovers a major part of early slide to over 1-week lows, retakes 112.00 mark and beyond
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
Changes on Banking
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (24.10.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Flirting with a descending trend-channel support, 6-week lows ahead of May's speech
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/JPY struggles near 6-week lows, just below mid-145.00s
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/CAD recovers to 1.3100 ahead of BOC rate hike
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: trading is to play great defense
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
AUD/USD surrenders early gains to levels beyond 0.7100 handle
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Forming a bearish Head & Shoulders pattern on hourly chart
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold: In a sideways consolidation phase, around $1230 level
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (23.10.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
EUR/USD recovery halted ahead of 1.1490
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/CAD – Canadian dollar continues to drift, BoC expected to raise rates
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US Dollar Index fades the spike to tops above 96.00
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: your goal is to trade well
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: The pair remains capped by the lower 1.1600s
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Brexit: Negotiations continuing – Deutsche Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP futures: neutral so far, further decline not ruled out
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (22.10.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png