something interesting

<  BACK TO Market Analysis

PIG TODAY-No action from ECB, but may hint at June move

The European Central Bank is set to keep its ultra-easy policy stance firmly in place on Thursday but may acknowledge better growth prospects, setting the stage for a small signal as early as June about an eventual reduction of stimulus.

ECB President Mario Draghi is likely to point to still-weak inflation, muted wage growth and an uncertain outlook to argue that easing off the accelerator now could unravel years of work that have consumed much of the ECB's firepower, a Reuters poll of analysts showed.

But Draghi may acknowledge the euro zone's solid growth momentum, surging consumer and business confidence, and receding political risk after pro-euro centrist Emmanuel Macron ended the first round of France's presidential vote in pole position.

"The ECB will likely acknowledge a further improvement in the balance of risks by pointing to upside risks to growth," economists at Societe Generale said.

"However, no material changes to its dovish communication are likely and we only expect the medium-term risks to be described as balanced in June."

The euro hovered just below six-month highs against the dollar, set in the wake of the Macron result, ahead of the ECB's rate decision at 1145 GMT followed by Draghi's news conference at 1230 GMT.

The mild optimism would follow years of extraordinary stimulus measures whose long-term consequences remain untested.

Having missed its 2 percent inflation target for four consecutive years, the ECB is buying 60 billion euros worth of bonds per month at least until the end of the year and plans to keep interest rates deep in negative territory until much later.

But economic growth is on its best run since the global financial crisis, inflation is comfortably above 1 percent and the ECB's policy arsenal is nearly depleted, all fuelling calls by conservative policymakers to start mapping out the way to the exit.

In a departure from the bank's long-held, more pessimistic stance, ECB board member Benoit Coeure, a key ally of Draghi, last week argued that the balance of risk for the economy is now largely balanced.

Coeure's view may not signal an imminent policy shift but suggests growing confidence in the outlook and a willingness to entertain the once-taboo subject of scaling back stimulus.

JUNE SHIFT?

The next step, possibly in June, could mean dropping a bias for even more policy easing and changing the wording of Draghi's regular opening statement to reflect improved prospects for the economy.

Last month, the ECB removed one phrase from the statement -- a pledge to act "using all the instruments available within its mandate" if needed, signaling a diminishing urgency for more policy action.

Some or all the references to prevailing downside risks to the outlook, to the possibility of further rate cuts or to larger asset purchases may be taken out, sources with direct knowledge of the bank's deliberations have told Reuters.

Policymakers are likely to remain cautious, however, particularly those from the periphery of the bloc, where unemployment is high and wages are not rising.

"Before getting too enthusiastic, not all is well in the euro zone," ING economist Carsten Brzeski said.

Conservative policymakers meanwhile argue that too much stimulus may already be fuelling asset price bubbles, risking financial stability and eroding bank earnings so much that the measures could actually hold back lending and thwart growth.

The ECB may also need to preserve whatever firepower it still has left in case of renewed turmoil.

This means Draghi may express cautious optimism on Thursday, readying for a more ambitious shift in June.

"If, as it now seems very likely, the French will elect a mainstream president, on June 8 the ECB will probably scale back some of its prudence," UniCredit economist Marco Valli said.

Source: reuters.com

The European Central Bank is set to keep its ultra-easy policy stance firmly in place on Thursday but may acknowledge better growth prospects, setting the stage for a small signal as early as June about an eventual reduction of stimulus.

ECB President Mario Draghi is likely to point to still-weak inflation, muted wage growth and an uncertain outlook to argue that easing off the accelerator now could unravel years of work that have consumed much of the ECB's firepower, a Reuters poll of analysts showed.

But Draghi may acknowledge the euro zone's solid growth momentum, surging consumer and business confidence, and receding political risk after pro-euro centrist Emmanuel Macron ended the first round of France's presidential vote in pole position.

"The ECB will likely acknowledge a further improvement in the balance of risks by pointing to upside risks to growth," economists at Societe Generale said.

"However, no material changes to its dovish communication are likely and we only expect the medium-term risks to be described as balanced in June."

The euro hovered just below six-month highs against the dollar, set in the wake of the Macron result, ahead of the ECB's rate decision at 1145 GMT followed by Draghi's news conference at 1230 GMT.

The mild optimism would follow years of extraordinary stimulus measures whose long-term consequences remain untested.

Having missed its 2 percent inflation target for four consecutive years, the ECB is buying 60 billion euros worth of bonds per month at least until the end of the year and plans to keep interest rates deep in negative territory until much later.

But economic growth is on its best run since the global financial crisis, inflation is comfortably above 1 percent and the ECB's policy arsenal is nearly depleted, all fuelling calls by conservative policymakers to start mapping out the way to the exit.

In a departure from the bank's long-held, more pessimistic stance, ECB board member Benoit Coeure, a key ally of Draghi, last week argued that the balance of risk for the economy is now largely balanced.

Coeure's view may not signal an imminent policy shift but suggests growing confidence in the outlook and a willingness to entertain the once-taboo subject of scaling back stimulus.

JUNE SHIFT?

The next step, possibly in June, could mean dropping a bias for even more policy easing and changing the wording of Draghi's regular opening statement to reflect improved prospects for the economy.

Last month, the ECB removed one phrase from the statement -- a pledge to act "using all the instruments available within its mandate" if needed, signaling a diminishing urgency for more policy action.

Some or all the references to prevailing downside risks to the outlook, to the possibility of further rate cuts or to larger asset purchases may be taken out, sources with direct knowledge of the bank's deliberations have told Reuters.

Policymakers are likely to remain cautious, however, particularly those from the periphery of the bloc, where unemployment is high and wages are not rising.

"Before getting too enthusiastic, not all is well in the euro zone," ING economist Carsten Brzeski said.

Conservative policymakers meanwhile argue that too much stimulus may already be fuelling asset price bubbles, risking financial stability and eroding bank earnings so much that the measures could actually hold back lending and thwart growth.

The ECB may also need to preserve whatever firepower it still has left in case of renewed turmoil.

This means Draghi may express cautious optimism on Thursday, readying for a more ambitious shift in June.

"If, as it now seems very likely, the French will elect a mainstream president, on June 8 the ECB will probably scale back some of its prudence," UniCredit economist Marco Valli said.

Source: reuters.com

lastest Articles

Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY- 10.12.2018
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
Forex Trading Wisdom: Amateurs vs Professionals
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Risk-off extends into Asia, UK monthly GDP – key focus
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
BREXIT - Margin Requirement
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
Forex Trading Wisdom: The Game
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Gold retreats from 5-week tops amid a modest USD rebound
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (04.12.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
US National Mourning day Trading Schedule
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY- 04.12.2018
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
Forex Trading Wisdom: Keep it Simple
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Breaking: GBP/USD jumps on ECJ opinion that the UK can revoke Article 50 unilaterally
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (03.12.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD fails to preserve gains, calms down below mid-1.27s
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
Forex Trading Wisdom: Your Friend
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY- 03.12.2018
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Weekly Results
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar Looking for Economic Guidance Ahead of Busy Week
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
Forex Trading Wisdom: You are what you do
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
FOMC to press on with hikes, cautiously
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (29.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US Dollar Tests Trend-Line Support Ahead of FOMC Minutes
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
Forex Trading Wisdom: Risk and Reward
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY- 29.11.2018
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Fed's Powell: Estimates of neutral policy rate, maximum employment highly uncertain
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
Forex Trading Wisdom: Bull and Bear
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: On the defensive
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (27.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today - Sterling falls on Brexit vote worries, Trump weighs in
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
Forex Trading Wisdom: Move on
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY -27.11.2018
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (26.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Dragged down by the marked divergence in growth momentum
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
Forex Trading Wisdom: Don't lose
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 26.11.2018
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar Higher as Trade War Concerns Fuel Risk Aversion
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed PAMM Accounts - Weekly Results
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Bank of England: Waiting on Brexit
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom - Small Profits
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
EUR/USD tumbles back closer to weekly lows on dismal Euro-zone PMIs
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (21.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
UK PM May Spokesman: UK has no further demands in Brexit negotiations ahead of EU summit
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold moves back closer to Wednesday’s 2-week tops
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB Minutes to reveal little detail about future policy
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
Thanksgiving Trading Hours
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 21.11.2018
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: The Goal
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Antipodeans bounce amid quiet Asia, European politics in spotlight
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Early Wednesday buyers should watch out for falling bears
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (20.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY- 20.11.2018
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom:Clear Markets
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Aussie weakest in Asia risk-off, eyes on BOE inflation report hearings
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (19.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Fed's Williams: Fed to continue hiking rates along gradual path
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold ticks lower to $1220, though downside remains limited
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY (19.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
SKRILL Policy Change
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Dollar Lower Ahead of Crucial Week for Brexit and Italian Budget
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Weekly Results
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Time Off
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Draghi’s speech: Slowdown has raised questions about strength of growth outlook
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY (16.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD – Euro ticks lower, investors eye U.S retail sales
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Never Happens
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY (15.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (14.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Breaking Rules
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Gold Prices May Fall on US CPI Uptick, Hawkish Powell Comments
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD gyrates around 1.1300 ahead of EMU GDP, US CPI
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FX Today: Pound sees two-way trading in Asia, Eyes on German GDP, Brexit Cabinet meeting, UK CPI
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (13.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 13.11.2018
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Risk rebounds on easing US-China trade woes; UK wages, ZEW – Key
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (12.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US Dollar Flying High on Hawkish Fed Statement
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Trading Rule #10
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
GBP/USD challenges 1.3000 post-UK data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY retreats further from 5-week tops, at low point of the day
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (08.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: Upside capped by the 200-day SMA at 130.21
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Trading Rule #9
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Forex Today: US dollar extends post-US election recovery ahead of FOMC decision
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (07.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Crude Oil Technical Analysis: Black Gold continues its descent as bearish EIA data sends WTI to $61.00 a barrel
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Trading Rule #8
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOMC: No urgency to raise policy rates
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY ( 07.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold turns higher for the day, up little around $1235 level
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Trading Rule #7
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Forex Today: US dollar better bid heading into the US mid-term elections
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (05.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY (05.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Trading Rule #6
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
FX Today: GBP – a big mover in Asia on mixed Brexit news, focus on UK services PMI
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
It's Time To Fall Back
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Weekly Results (29.10-02.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Strong Fundamentals Boost Dollar with US Midterms in Focus
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY struggles to build on positive move beyond 113.00 handle, NFP in focus
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Trading Rule #5
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY (02.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613