something interesting

<  BACK TO Market Analysis

PIG TODAY-ECB: Taking baby steps - Rabobank

The research team at Rabobank notes that the ECB left both interest rates and the asset purchases programme unchanged while the Governing Council upgraded the risk assessment for growth slightly, but reiterated that the (more important) inflation risk assessment remained unchanged.

Key Quotes

“The Governing Council is trying to sound somewhat more optimistic as the year progresses, without immediately startling markets. Meeting again confirmed that the ECB will only take ‘baby steps’ when it changes its communication on the outlook for monetary policy.”

“We believe that this suggests that going forward, the ECB is likely to first only adjust its risk assessment for growth again (but this time to “broadly balanced”), before considering an upgrade of the inflation risk balance. Further upgrades of the growth outlook and/or risk assessment could come as early as June, backed by new growth estimates. We believe these growth estimates could indicate further reduction of the uncertainty surrounding the outlook – and especially the downside risks to growth, given that growth has so far turned out to be more robust than previously expected.”

“Meanwhile, the Governing Council is not yet convinced enough to also upgrade the inflation risk assessment, which also has clear implications for the Council’s stance towards the ECB’s forward guidance.”

“President Draghi confirmed that the ‘easing biases’ communicated in the ECB’s forward guidance relate solely to inflation: “They are meant to cope with tail risks concerning the inflation rate, not growth.” As such, it is highly unlikely that the phrasing of forward guidance will change before the ECB upgrades its risk assessment for the inflation outlook from “downside risks”. Only when the Council can sound more optimistic on the outlook for inflation –i.e. when a similar, gradual change of tone in the inflation risk assessment is presented– do we expect the ECB to reassess the “or lower” phrasing in its forward guidance.”

“Not only did Draghi’s press conference clarify the order in which the ECB’s language will change, President Draghi also reiterated that the sequence in which unconventional policies will be wound down is currently not up for discussion. At this time, the Council does not see any reasons to deviate from the order described in the forward guidance (i.e. tapering the asset purchases before hiking the deposit rate). In our view, the fact that Draghi did not want to go into too much detail when asked questions on potential changes to this order, only confirms that the Governing Council wants to stick to the current sequence of tapering before rate hikes for now.”

Source: fxstreet.com

The research team at Rabobank notes that the ECB left both interest rates and the asset purchases programme unchanged while the Governing Council upgraded the risk assessment for growth slightly, but reiterated that the (more important) inflation risk assessment remained unchanged.

Key Quotes

“The Governing Council is trying to sound somewhat more optimistic as the year progresses, without immediately startling markets. Meeting again confirmed that the ECB will only take ‘baby steps’ when it changes its communication on the outlook for monetary policy.”

“We believe that this suggests that going forward, the ECB is likely to first only adjust its risk assessment for growth again (but this time to “broadly balanced”), before considering an upgrade of the inflation risk balance. Further upgrades of the growth outlook and/or risk assessment could come as early as June, backed by new growth estimates. We believe these growth estimates could indicate further reduction of the uncertainty surrounding the outlook – and especially the downside risks to growth, given that growth has so far turned out to be more robust than previously expected.”

“Meanwhile, the Governing Council is not yet convinced enough to also upgrade the inflation risk assessment, which also has clear implications for the Council’s stance towards the ECB’s forward guidance.”

“President Draghi confirmed that the ‘easing biases’ communicated in the ECB’s forward guidance relate solely to inflation: “They are meant to cope with tail risks concerning the inflation rate, not growth.” As such, it is highly unlikely that the phrasing of forward guidance will change before the ECB upgrades its risk assessment for the inflation outlook from “downside risks”. Only when the Council can sound more optimistic on the outlook for inflation –i.e. when a similar, gradual change of tone in the inflation risk assessment is presented– do we expect the ECB to reassess the “or lower” phrasing in its forward guidance.”

“Not only did Draghi’s press conference clarify the order in which the ECB’s language will change, President Draghi also reiterated that the sequence in which unconventional policies will be wound down is currently not up for discussion. At this time, the Council does not see any reasons to deviate from the order described in the forward guidance (i.e. tapering the asset purchases before hiking the deposit rate). In our view, the fact that Draghi did not want to go into too much detail when asked questions on potential changes to this order, only confirms that the Governing Council wants to stick to the current sequence of tapering before rate hikes for now.”

Source: fxstreet.com

lastest Articles

Company News
SKRILL Policy Change
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Dollar Lower Ahead of Crucial Week for Brexit and Italian Budget
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Weekly Results
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Time Off
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Draghi’s speech: Slowdown has raised questions about strength of growth outlook
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY (16.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD – Euro ticks lower, investors eye U.S retail sales
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Never Happens
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY (15.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (14.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Breaking Rules
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Gold Prices May Fall on US CPI Uptick, Hawkish Powell Comments
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD gyrates around 1.1300 ahead of EMU GDP, US CPI
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FX Today: Pound sees two-way trading in Asia, Eyes on German GDP, Brexit Cabinet meeting, UK CPI
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (13.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 13.11.2018
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Risk rebounds on easing US-China trade woes; UK wages, ZEW – Key
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (12.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US Dollar Flying High on Hawkish Fed Statement
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Trading Rule #10
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
GBP/USD challenges 1.3000 post-UK data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY retreats further from 5-week tops, at low point of the day
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (08.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: Upside capped by the 200-day SMA at 130.21
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Trading Rule #9
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Forex Today: US dollar extends post-US election recovery ahead of FOMC decision
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (07.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Crude Oil Technical Analysis: Black Gold continues its descent as bearish EIA data sends WTI to $61.00 a barrel
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Trading Rule #8
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOMC: No urgency to raise policy rates
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY ( 07.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold turns higher for the day, up little around $1235 level
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Trading Rule #7
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Forex Today: US dollar better bid heading into the US mid-term elections
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (05.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY (05.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Trading Rule #6
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
FX Today: GBP – a big mover in Asia on mixed Brexit news, focus on UK services PMI
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
It's Time To Fall Back
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Weekly Results (29.10-02.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Strong Fundamentals Boost Dollar with US Midterms in Focus
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY struggles to build on positive move beyond 113.00 handle, NFP in focus
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Trading Rule #5
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY (02.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (01.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Trading Rule #4
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Gold stages a solid rebound from 3-week lows amid notable USD supply
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY- 01.11.2018
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (31.10.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Breaking News: GBP/USD jumps as Raab says a Brexit deal is expected by November 21
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD – Euro yawns as Eurozone CPI, GDP meet forecasts
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB’s Visco: Widening of Italy-German yield spread reflects the risk of default
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Trading Rule #3
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY( 31.10.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (30.10.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY (30.10.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Trading Rule #2
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
EUR/USD still looks to a visit of 1.1315/01 – Commerzbank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Trump offers reprieve to Asia, focus shifts to Eurozone GDP, German CPI
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (29.10.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Cautious start to a Big week ahead, eyes on UK Annual Budget report
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Trading Rule #1
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 29.10.2018
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar Pays Heavy Price for Equity Sell Off
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (26.10.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/CAD Technical Analysis: Big bears offering Friday surprise as the market is reversing down sharply to 1.3050 level
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Technical Analysis: Bulls keep the trend intact as the Yellow Metal is nearing $1,250.00/oz
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY -26.10.2018
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom:Talk yourself out of bad trades
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (25.10.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY sticks to modest recovery gains, above 128.00 mark post-ECB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Judge yourself not by the outcome
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Set-up points to an extension of the bearish trend, ECB awaited
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold turns lower, hits intraday low around $1230
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY recovers a major part of early slide to over 1-week lows, retakes 112.00 mark and beyond
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
Changes on Banking
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (24.10.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Flirting with a descending trend-channel support, 6-week lows ahead of May's speech
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/JPY struggles near 6-week lows, just below mid-145.00s
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/CAD recovers to 1.3100 ahead of BOC rate hike
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: trading is to play great defense
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
AUD/USD surrenders early gains to levels beyond 0.7100 handle
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Forming a bearish Head & Shoulders pattern on hourly chart
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold: In a sideways consolidation phase, around $1230 level
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (23.10.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
EUR/USD recovery halted ahead of 1.1490
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/CAD – Canadian dollar continues to drift, BoC expected to raise rates
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US Dollar Index fades the spike to tops above 96.00
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: your goal is to trade well
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: The pair remains capped by the lower 1.1600s
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Brexit: Negotiations continuing – Deutsche Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP futures: neutral so far, further decline not ruled out
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (22.10.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
GBP/USD flirting with lows, back closer to 1.30 handle
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Ascending trend-channel support prospects for additional gains
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Banks, miners led the way higher for FTSE 100
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD reverses course, hits lows near 1.3050 on Brexit anxiety
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Weekly Results (15.10-19.10.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
FOREX WEEK AHEAD
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613