something interesting

<  BACK TO Market Analysis

PIG TODAY-AUD: Trading The RBA - Views From Major Banks

The following are brief expectations for the RBA May meeting statement as compiled from the related research reports of 7 major banks. Overall, they expect the RBA to stay on hold and to maintain a neutral to a slightly dovish stance. 

Credit Agricole CIB Research: The AUD/USD remains well above its interest rate differential, but needs something to jolt it into correcting.  The RBA is not likely to be the source of this correction. The RBA will be on hold this week and likely continue to indicate that it is comfortable staying that way for a long time.

TD Research: The market expects the RBA to remain on hold but will also be closely watching the forecasts and language. We expect a neutral tone, but a downgrade in the forecasts could weigh on AUD.

Morgan Stanley Research: The RBA should remain dovish. The AUD stays on our top selling list as tighter financial conditions in China are expected to spill over to Australia. The market is still long the AUD, which we think needs to come down, supported further by depressed iron ore prices.

BofAML Research: The Reserve Bank of Australia Board should  firmly on hold with market pricing seeing little impetus to alter guidance anytime soon...T

NAB Research: No change is unanimously expected...There’s currently no monetary policy bias built into the RBA futures curve for this year. Last week’s CPI revealed somewhat higher than expected headline and underlying inflation, but the emphasis on “somewhat”. And so if there’s any recognition that last week’s CPI might have done anything more than a tweak to the starting point, that could be material if it lessens the (slim) chances of any more easing.

Westpac Research: The Board is certain to hold rates steady.In fact Westpac has argued consistently since May last year that, after an expected cut in August 2016, rates would be held steady for the remainder of 2016 and 2017. Earlier this year we extended that view with the expectation that the Bank would also hold rates steady through 2018.

Barclays Research: We expect the RBA to maintain its growth and inflation forecasts, but exhibit more confidence around its projections and also speak more around risks in the housing market.

Source: efxnews.com

The following are brief expectations for the RBA May meeting statement as compiled from the related research reports of 7 major banks. Overall, they expect the RBA to stay on hold and to maintain a neutral to a slightly dovish stance. 

Credit Agricole CIB Research: The AUD/USD remains well above its interest rate differential, but needs something to jolt it into correcting.  The RBA is not likely to be the source of this correction. The RBA will be on hold this week and likely continue to indicate that it is comfortable staying that way for a long time.

TD Research: The market expects the RBA to remain on hold but will also be closely watching the forecasts and language. We expect a neutral tone, but a downgrade in the forecasts could weigh on AUD.

Morgan Stanley Research: The RBA should remain dovish. The AUD stays on our top selling list as tighter financial conditions in China are expected to spill over to Australia. The market is still long the AUD, which we think needs to come down, supported further by depressed iron ore prices.

BofAML Research: The Reserve Bank of Australia Board should  firmly on hold with market pricing seeing little impetus to alter guidance anytime soon...T

NAB Research: No change is unanimously expected...There’s currently no monetary policy bias built into the RBA futures curve for this year. Last week’s CPI revealed somewhat higher than expected headline and underlying inflation, but the emphasis on “somewhat”. And so if there’s any recognition that last week’s CPI might have done anything more than a tweak to the starting point, that could be material if it lessens the (slim) chances of any more easing.

Westpac Research: The Board is certain to hold rates steady.In fact Westpac has argued consistently since May last year that, after an expected cut in August 2016, rates would be held steady for the remainder of 2016 and 2017. Earlier this year we extended that view with the expectation that the Bank would also hold rates steady through 2018.

Barclays Research: We expect the RBA to maintain its growth and inflation forecasts, but exhibit more confidence around its projections and also speak more around risks in the housing market.

Source: efxnews.com

lastest Articles

Market Analysis
Big Earnings, Rate Decisions and US GDP once markets return from holiday
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
AUD/USD inches higher to 0.7160, but lacks follow-through
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY frozen near 111.90 ahead of US housing data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Yen ignores BOJ operation, Good Friday quiet trading to extend
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD consolidates the slide near 1.1250, US retail sales eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY-18.04.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
Easter Trading Schedule
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD is holding steady
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD: Recovery towards 1.3100 on its way ahead of UK CPI
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FX Today: Antipodeans rescued by strong China data; focus on UK/ Eurozone CPI
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB said not to have discusses further deposit rate cuts
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Aussie trips on dovish RBA minutes; eyes on UK wages, German ZEW
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY -16.04.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR shorts increased, GBP shorts trimmed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Managed Forex Accounts Weekly Results- April, week 15
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar Softens Awaiting US Retail Sales
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD steadily climbs to session tops, aims to reclaim 1.3100 mark
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/GBP continues to consolidate
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY -12.04.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB: Press conference is an opportunity to inject confidence into the economy
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD continues to show signs of recovery
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY -10.04.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 09.04.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD: Upside remains capped near 1.3070 amid Brexit stalemate
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Weekly Results
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD to remain steady around the ECB meeting – Danske Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar Rises on Strong US Jobs Data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold waits for US employment data near $1290
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB unlikely to provide much in terms of steps forward
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD probing daily highs near 1.1230 ahead of NFP
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
AUD: RBA and politics to keep a lid
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 04.04.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD upside still capped by 1.1250, ECB eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 03.04.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay opens the door to a second referendum, GBP/USD holds high ground
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD rebounds to 1.1250 amid positive German yields, weaker USD
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Managed Forex Accounts Weekly Results
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Brexit amongst key market moving events today
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
April optimism could be key turning point for global growth
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/GBP breaks below the 100-day SMA to fresh lows near 0.8550
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: Set-up remains in favor of bearish traders ahead of UK macro data/Brexit vote
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 29.03.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
UK PM May's spokesman: Guaranteed way of leaving on May 22 is to win MV3 on Friday
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY finds support near 110, rebounds modestly ahead of US GDP data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 28.03.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
AUD/USD clings to gains near session tops, comfortable above 0.7100 handle
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY sticks to modest gains above 110.00 handle, but lacks follow-through
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 25.03.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar Recovers Fed Driven Losses on Safe-haven Flows
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB’s Draghi: International trade is main reason for slowdown
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BoE: No surprises here – Deutsche Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold climbs to session tops, further beyond $1310 level
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold loses momentum, edges lower toward $1300
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BOJ’s Kuroda: “We will mull more easing if price momentum is lost"
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOMC Preview: What 17 major banks are expecting from March meeting?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 19.03.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Technical Analysis: 18.03.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Fed is likely to signal just one more rate hike – Danske Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY -18.03.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD fades a knee-jerk bullish spike to levels beyond 1.3300 mark
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
AUD: RBA market pricing absorbed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: USD bounces alongside T-yields in Asia; UK politics/ Brexit in focus
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD remains bid and flirts with 1.1300, looks to Brexit, data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 13.03.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold adds to gains beyond $1300 mark, hits 1-1/2 week tops
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR: Shorts restrained
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY-12.03.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Brexit and US CPI amongst market movers today
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY -11.03.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/CAD struggles to gain positive traction, but holds above 1.3400 handle
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Bounce is likely - Commerzbank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD Pound Fails to Capitalize on Dollar Stumble Ahead of Brexit Votes
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold clings to recovery gains above $1290
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB: All focus on TLTRO announcement
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US: Focus on Fed speak and trade data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 06.03.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BoC: Policy rate likely to remain unchanged - Rabobank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD slides back closer to session lows, focus shifts to Carney's testimony
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold consolidates in a range, hangs near 6-week lows
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Antipodeans slip on China woes; Eurozone/ UK services PMI eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD: Prohibitive?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD drops to session low, bulls struggling to defend 1.3200 mark
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Risk-on amid US-China trade optimism; UK construction PMI – Up next
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Global growth hinges on China’s Big Week
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Technical Analysis: Bears await a sustained break below 1-month old trend-line support
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: The cross now targets the key 200-day SMA
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Yen weakest in Asia risk-on; focus on UK PMI, Eurozone CPI
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold bears looking for a break of the $1,300/oz level to 38.2% Fibo target
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD turns flat below 1.14 as DXY clings to gains above 96
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 28.02.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Oil: Prices stabilising
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Brexit to remain in focus this week
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold edges lower to $1325 level, focus remains on Powell’s testimony
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD within a tight range near 1.1350, focus on Powell
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold drops below $1330 as USD recovers modestly
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY challenges 2-day highs near 125.80
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 25.02.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/CAD Canadian Dollar Higher on Stronger Oil and Softer Dollar
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD eases from tops beyond 1.1350 post-IFO
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 22.02.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613