something interesting

<  BACK TO Market Analysis

PIG TODAY-Eurozone: Core inflation surprised on the upside – Danske Bank

Pernille Bomholdt Henneberg, Chief Analyst at Danske Bank, explains that the Eurozone’s core inflation surprised on the upside but this is not the first sign of higher underlying price pressure.

Key Quotes

“Euro area inflation increased to 1.9% y/y in April from 1.5% y/y in March while core inflation jumped to 1.2% y/y from 0.7% y/y, thereby reaching the highest level in four years. The higher core inflation reflected higher service price inflation, which rose to 1.8% y/y from 1.0% y/y, while non-energy industrial goods price inflation remained subdued at 0.3% y/y.”

“The question remains whether the higher service price inflation reflects a rise in underlying price pressure, which would change the ECB’s monetary policy stance. Based on our calculations, a very large part of the rise in service price inflation is due to the early Easter last year, which is also reflected in the details about the German CPI inflation. Here, package holidays added 0.9pp to HICP service price inflation in April, up from a drag of 0.6pp in March. As German HICP accounts for 28% of euro area inflation, 0.4pp of the 0.8pp rise in euro area service price inflation is due to German package holidays.”

“Among the remaining components of service price inflation we see few signs that the underlying price pressure has started to pick up. The largest component of service price inflation is recreation and personal care excluding package holidays. This figure was still hovering around a historically low level in March, likely reflecting the lack of underlying price pressure. On the other hand, the higher oil price has indirectly supported service price inflation through transport prices and this likely also contributed to the higher figure in April. However, as the oil price has stabilised, the indirect support should start fading in H2 17 given that the underlying price pressure is still subdued as we expect. (The euro area inflation details for April are released 17 May).”

 Source: fxstreet.com

Pernille Bomholdt Henneberg, Chief Analyst at Danske Bank, explains that the Eurozone’s core inflation surprised on the upside but this is not the first sign of higher underlying price pressure.

Key Quotes

“Euro area inflation increased to 1.9% y/y in April from 1.5% y/y in March while core inflation jumped to 1.2% y/y from 0.7% y/y, thereby reaching the highest level in four years. The higher core inflation reflected higher service price inflation, which rose to 1.8% y/y from 1.0% y/y, while non-energy industrial goods price inflation remained subdued at 0.3% y/y.”

“The question remains whether the higher service price inflation reflects a rise in underlying price pressure, which would change the ECB’s monetary policy stance. Based on our calculations, a very large part of the rise in service price inflation is due to the early Easter last year, which is also reflected in the details about the German CPI inflation. Here, package holidays added 0.9pp to HICP service price inflation in April, up from a drag of 0.6pp in March. As German HICP accounts for 28% of euro area inflation, 0.4pp of the 0.8pp rise in euro area service price inflation is due to German package holidays.”

“Among the remaining components of service price inflation we see few signs that the underlying price pressure has started to pick up. The largest component of service price inflation is recreation and personal care excluding package holidays. This figure was still hovering around a historically low level in March, likely reflecting the lack of underlying price pressure. On the other hand, the higher oil price has indirectly supported service price inflation through transport prices and this likely also contributed to the higher figure in April. However, as the oil price has stabilised, the indirect support should start fading in H2 17 given that the underlying price pressure is still subdued as we expect. (The euro area inflation details for April are released 17 May).”

 Source: fxstreet.com

lastest Articles

Market Analysis
US Dollar Index challenges lows near 96.30 post-U Mich
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Japan: Risk of disappointing exports this summer – Nomura
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Weaker gold heads for 3% weekly drop
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY outlook still unclear, rangebound likely near term – UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD faces some rangebound near term – UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Quote: First ask yourself - Pig Insider
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
US said to seek to pressure China to lift the Yuan in talks – New York Times
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (16.08.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
China, U.S. to hold lower-level trade talks in late August
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Fitch Ratings: Brexit uncertainty makes smooth transition less likely
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP futures: U-turn near term?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Consolidates daily gains above 100-hour SMA
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Quote:Speculate with less than 10% of your liquid net worth -Ed Seykota
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Euro rebounds from 13-month lows, dollar weakens on U.S.-China talks
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets 16.08.2018: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (15.08.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Dollar rises to 13-month high, offshore yuan falls
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD drops to fresh lows closer to 1.1300
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Challenges ascending trend-channel support ahead of US retail sales data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD reverses a dip below 1.2700 on UK CPI
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
No end on sight for the bearish phase in AUD/USD – UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
Forex Trading Quote: I am a better investor because I am a businessman - Warren Buffett
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (14.08.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
NY Fed: Total household debt increased by $82 billion (0.6%) in Q2
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
UK's Hunt: Risk of a no-deal Brexit has been increasing
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
NZD: Pressurized by dovish RBNZ - Westpac
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Review: Struggles near 19-month low, chart set-up points to continuation of the downfall
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Quote: When you know what not to do in order not to lose money - Jesse Livermore
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
GBP/JPY spikes and retreats, steadies near 142.00 mark post-UK jobs data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Germany again bucked the trend in Europe - Rabobank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (13.08.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Canada: CPI to take centre stage this week - NBF
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Pound pummelled by stronger dollar, mounting Brexit fears
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
AUD/USD moves into a bearish phase – UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY negative, room for a test of 109.35 – UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Quote: Efforts and Courage - Pig Insider
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Gold Technical Analysis: Traders await a convincing break through near-term trading range
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets 13.08.2018: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Weekly Results (06-10.08.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
FOREX Week Ahead: Dollar Higher as Risk Appetite Vanishes
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (10.08.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Japan: Growth surged by 0.5% q/q - Rabobank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Sterling steadies near 11-month lows after Brexit slide
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Yuan eases, set to extend longest losing streak to nine weeks
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Review: Weekly trading range intact ahead of US CPI
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Quote: You can't move the market - Pig Insider
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
GBP/USD stays bearish, next target at 1.2675 – UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
NZD/USD struggles below 0.6600 mark, lowest since March 2016
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (09.08.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Bearish bets on most Asian currencies recede slightly - Reuters poll
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY room for a test of 128.11 – Commerzbank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold struggles for a firm near-term direction, holds within 1-week old trading range
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR futures: upside limited near term
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Quote: philosophy of trading-Pig Insider
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Struggles to break through a descending trend-line hurdle
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Sterling extends fall vs dollar, nears one-year low
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (08.08.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
GBP/USD Review: Bearish pressure remains unabated, lowest level since late-Aug. 2017
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
China state banks seen selling dollars to arrest sharp yuan losses: traders
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold hangs near 17-month lows, around $1212 level
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP futures: scope for deeper pullback
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Quote: Never invest in a business you cannot understand - Warren Buffett
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Euro gains as dollar rally fades; yen rebounds
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets 08.08.2018: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
Forex Trading Quote: on market wisdom and money-Livermore
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Pound frail on worries over no-deal Brexit, dollar steady
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets 07.08.2018: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: USD/JPY supported above 111.00 level
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
10-year, 30-year government bond yields fall as China trade tensions resurface
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Mr. Markets
Trump’s Conundrum Spooking Market
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/8b0332acc130dc650331fd558f82add2
Market Analysis
GBP/USD slides to fresh YTD lows, around mid-1.2900s
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Quote: Pyramiding instructions appear on dollar bills - Ed Seykota
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
EUR/USD meets fresh supply, 1.1508 back on sight
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets 06.08.2018: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Market Events Ahead
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Weekly Results (30.07-04.08.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
FOREX Week Ahead:US Dollar Takes NFP Hit But Ends Up Higher on the Week
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (03.08.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
EUR/USD remains vulnerable, recovery stalled around 1.1610
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: Breakdown of 129.00 could spark a leg lower to 126.63/124.61
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Technical Analysis: Stages a solid rebound from 13-month lows
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US Dollar finds support around 95.00 post-Payrolls
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Quote: Only those who risk going too far - PIG INSIDER
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Sterling slides below $1.30 as Carney flags no-deal Brexit risks
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets 03.08.2018: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (02.08.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Gold Review: Drops to 2-week lows, remains vulnerable to slide further
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BOE rate hike not enough to lift British pound versus dollar
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Quote: safety-Livermore
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
US Dollar clinches session highs near 95.00
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (01.08.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Euro pressured by dollar strength and subdued factory growth
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Quote: We don’t have to be smarter than the rest - WARREN BUFFET
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
UK manufacturing output slips as Brexit risks mount - ING
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets 01.08.2018: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (31.07.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US Dollar jumps to fresh highs near 94.50
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets 31.07.2018: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Big week for currency markets as central banks meet
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613