something interesting

<  BACK TO Market Analysis

PIG TODAY-Fed Plan for Gradual Rate Hikes Is Starting to Look Complacent

Investors and the Federal Reserve may have grown too comfortable with gradualism — raising interest rates at a pace that is not too fast, not too slow, but just right. The outlook could abruptly shift if global growth gains momentum and U.S. unemployment sinks much lower.

Markets look complacent. Prices in interest-rate futures show almost a 90 percent probability of a hike in June, according to the CME Group in Chicago. While investors have been moving toward another increase by the end of the year, they're not entirely convinced, according to Bloomberg calculations. Volatility has also slumped across different classes of financial assets, with a Merrill Lynch index that gauges options prices on Treasuries is near its lowest levels in data going back to 1988.

The risk, of course, is that when Fed officials release their statement and updated quarterly forecasts at the end of their June 13-14 policy meeting, they'll signal a steeper path of rate hikes than the three annual moves that are currently penciled in for 2017 and 2018.

Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren explicitly took a step in that direction this week, urging his colleagues to raise rates three more times this year, on top of the increase they made in March.

"The risks are shifting in that direction," said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Plc. "The bond market is a little complacent about it and is likely taking its cue from wage growth, which remains modest."

Here is the strengthening case for a faster pace.

Take a look at the chart below on Euro-area forecasts. It's not that growth is on fire, but forecasts are starting to get marked up as election risk and other uncertainties fade. The International Monetary Fund forecast in April that global growth would rise to 3.5 percent this year from 3.1 percent last year. A more synchronous global recovery adds a tailwind to the U.S. expansion as export markets strengthen and financial conditions remain easy.

The next chart shows that the real, inflation-adjusted federal funds rate is still negative at a time when the economy has exceeded central bankers' median estimate for full employment and inflation is near their 2 percent target. U.S. unemployment was 4.4 percent last month. Fed officials currently estimate the longer-run sustainable rate is 4.7 percent. Such aggressive stimulus at this stage of the economic cycle is unusual and intentional. Fed Chair Janet Yellen has tried to pull more people back to the labor force by keeping rates low and is also removing accommodation only gradually in an attempt to preserve the expansion.

Yellen and the Federal Open Market Committee are making a big bet that inflation stays in check while they allow the economy to probe the limits of labor market slack. Economists, however, admit that they don't understand inflation dynamics very well, and the committee is wagering that public expectations are strongly anchored around 2 percent. Yet inflation expectations are also influenced by central bank actions.

"They are taking risks here," said former Fed governor Laurence Meyer, the head of a Washington policy research firm that bears his name.

"You are beyond full employment, you have confidence you are heading toward sustainable 2 percent inflation, and you have above trend growth for the next two years," he added. "And they are going slow."

While inflation does look calm — it has been at or above the FOMC's target only once since April 2012 — Tom Porcelli, the chief U.S. economist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, notes that wage pressures typically do not build up in an orderly fashion. In the last business cycle, one gauge of average hourly earnings jumped dramatically in a one-year period.

"You get this big run in earnings toward the end of the cycle. We are getting to that point," said Porcelli, who forecasts the FOMC will move to four hikes for 2018. "You can make the argument that the Fed is not buying enough insurance now against this outcome, and the real risk is the market is way off" when they do.

Source: bloomberg.com

Investors and the Federal Reserve may have grown too comfortable with gradualism — raising interest rates at a pace that is not too fast, not too slow, but just right. The outlook could abruptly shift if global growth gains momentum and U.S. unemployment sinks much lower.

Markets look complacent. Prices in interest-rate futures show almost a 90 percent probability of a hike in June, according to the CME Group in Chicago. While investors have been moving toward another increase by the end of the year, they're not entirely convinced, according to Bloomberg calculations. Volatility has also slumped across different classes of financial assets, with a Merrill Lynch index that gauges options prices on Treasuries is near its lowest levels in data going back to 1988.

The risk, of course, is that when Fed officials release their statement and updated quarterly forecasts at the end of their June 13-14 policy meeting, they'll signal a steeper path of rate hikes than the three annual moves that are currently penciled in for 2017 and 2018.

Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren explicitly took a step in that direction this week, urging his colleagues to raise rates three more times this year, on top of the increase they made in March.

"The risks are shifting in that direction," said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Plc. "The bond market is a little complacent about it and is likely taking its cue from wage growth, which remains modest."

Here is the strengthening case for a faster pace.

Take a look at the chart below on Euro-area forecasts. It's not that growth is on fire, but forecasts are starting to get marked up as election risk and other uncertainties fade. The International Monetary Fund forecast in April that global growth would rise to 3.5 percent this year from 3.1 percent last year. A more synchronous global recovery adds a tailwind to the U.S. expansion as export markets strengthen and financial conditions remain easy.

The next chart shows that the real, inflation-adjusted federal funds rate is still negative at a time when the economy has exceeded central bankers' median estimate for full employment and inflation is near their 2 percent target. U.S. unemployment was 4.4 percent last month. Fed officials currently estimate the longer-run sustainable rate is 4.7 percent. Such aggressive stimulus at this stage of the economic cycle is unusual and intentional. Fed Chair Janet Yellen has tried to pull more people back to the labor force by keeping rates low and is also removing accommodation only gradually in an attempt to preserve the expansion.

Yellen and the Federal Open Market Committee are making a big bet that inflation stays in check while they allow the economy to probe the limits of labor market slack. Economists, however, admit that they don't understand inflation dynamics very well, and the committee is wagering that public expectations are strongly anchored around 2 percent. Yet inflation expectations are also influenced by central bank actions.

"They are taking risks here," said former Fed governor Laurence Meyer, the head of a Washington policy research firm that bears his name.

"You are beyond full employment, you have confidence you are heading toward sustainable 2 percent inflation, and you have above trend growth for the next two years," he added. "And they are going slow."

While inflation does look calm — it has been at or above the FOMC's target only once since April 2012 — Tom Porcelli, the chief U.S. economist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, notes that wage pressures typically do not build up in an orderly fashion. In the last business cycle, one gauge of average hourly earnings jumped dramatically in a one-year period.

"You get this big run in earnings toward the end of the cycle. We are getting to that point," said Porcelli, who forecasts the FOMC will move to four hikes for 2018. "You can make the argument that the Fed is not buying enough insurance now against this outcome, and the real risk is the market is way off" when they do.

Source: bloomberg.com

lastest Articles

Quips of Wisdom
Forex Trading Wisdom: Control
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 14.12.2018
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
Forex Trading Wisdom: Risk Control
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (13.12.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Currencies struggle for direction despite Draghi and Trump comments
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY -13.12.2018
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (12.12.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
USD Bank Wire Notice
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
ECB will say goodbye to quantitative easing, but when will it hike rates?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
Forex Trading Wisdom:Knowing Your Self
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY- 12.12.2018
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (11.12.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
Forex Trading Wisdom: Personalizing Loses
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY-11.12.2018
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (10.12.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY- 10.12.2018
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
Forex Trading Wisdom: Amateurs vs Professionals
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Risk-off extends into Asia, UK monthly GDP – key focus
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
BREXIT - Margin Requirement
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
Forex Trading Wisdom: The Game
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Gold retreats from 5-week tops amid a modest USD rebound
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (04.12.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
US National Mourning day Trading Schedule
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY- 04.12.2018
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
Forex Trading Wisdom: Keep it Simple
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Breaking: GBP/USD jumps on ECJ opinion that the UK can revoke Article 50 unilaterally
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (03.12.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD fails to preserve gains, calms down below mid-1.27s
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
Forex Trading Wisdom: Your Friend
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY- 03.12.2018
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Weekly Results
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar Looking for Economic Guidance Ahead of Busy Week
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
Forex Trading Wisdom: You are what you do
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
FOMC to press on with hikes, cautiously
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (29.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US Dollar Tests Trend-Line Support Ahead of FOMC Minutes
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
Forex Trading Wisdom: Risk and Reward
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY- 29.11.2018
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Fed's Powell: Estimates of neutral policy rate, maximum employment highly uncertain
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
Forex Trading Wisdom: Bull and Bear
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: On the defensive
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (27.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today - Sterling falls on Brexit vote worries, Trump weighs in
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
Forex Trading Wisdom: Move on
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY -27.11.2018
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (26.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Dragged down by the marked divergence in growth momentum
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
Forex Trading Wisdom: Don't lose
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 26.11.2018
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar Higher as Trade War Concerns Fuel Risk Aversion
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed PAMM Accounts - Weekly Results
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Bank of England: Waiting on Brexit
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom - Small Profits
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
EUR/USD tumbles back closer to weekly lows on dismal Euro-zone PMIs
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (21.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
UK PM May Spokesman: UK has no further demands in Brexit negotiations ahead of EU summit
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold moves back closer to Wednesday’s 2-week tops
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB Minutes to reveal little detail about future policy
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
Thanksgiving Trading Hours
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 21.11.2018
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: The Goal
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Antipodeans bounce amid quiet Asia, European politics in spotlight
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Early Wednesday buyers should watch out for falling bears
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (20.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY- 20.11.2018
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom:Clear Markets
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Aussie weakest in Asia risk-off, eyes on BOE inflation report hearings
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (19.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Fed's Williams: Fed to continue hiking rates along gradual path
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold ticks lower to $1220, though downside remains limited
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY (19.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
SKRILL Policy Change
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Dollar Lower Ahead of Crucial Week for Brexit and Italian Budget
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Weekly Results
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Time Off
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Draghi’s speech: Slowdown has raised questions about strength of growth outlook
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY (16.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD – Euro ticks lower, investors eye U.S retail sales
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Never Happens
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY (15.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (14.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Breaking Rules
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Gold Prices May Fall on US CPI Uptick, Hawkish Powell Comments
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD gyrates around 1.1300 ahead of EMU GDP, US CPI
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FX Today: Pound sees two-way trading in Asia, Eyes on German GDP, Brexit Cabinet meeting, UK CPI
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (13.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 13.11.2018
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Risk rebounds on easing US-China trade woes; UK wages, ZEW – Key
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (12.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US Dollar Flying High on Hawkish Fed Statement
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Trading Rule #10
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
GBP/USD challenges 1.3000 post-UK data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY retreats further from 5-week tops, at low point of the day
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (08.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: Upside capped by the 200-day SMA at 130.21
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Trading Rule #9
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Forex Today: US dollar extends post-US election recovery ahead of FOMC decision
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (07.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Crude Oil Technical Analysis: Black Gold continues its descent as bearish EIA data sends WTI to $61.00 a barrel
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Trading Rule #8
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613