something interesting

<  BACK TO Market Analysis

PIG TODAY-Fed Plan for Gradual Rate Hikes Is Starting to Look Complacent

Investors and the Federal Reserve may have grown too comfortable with gradualism — raising interest rates at a pace that is not too fast, not too slow, but just right. The outlook could abruptly shift if global growth gains momentum and U.S. unemployment sinks much lower.

Markets look complacent. Prices in interest-rate futures show almost a 90 percent probability of a hike in June, according to the CME Group in Chicago. While investors have been moving toward another increase by the end of the year, they're not entirely convinced, according to Bloomberg calculations. Volatility has also slumped across different classes of financial assets, with a Merrill Lynch index that gauges options prices on Treasuries is near its lowest levels in data going back to 1988.

The risk, of course, is that when Fed officials release their statement and updated quarterly forecasts at the end of their June 13-14 policy meeting, they'll signal a steeper path of rate hikes than the three annual moves that are currently penciled in for 2017 and 2018.

Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren explicitly took a step in that direction this week, urging his colleagues to raise rates three more times this year, on top of the increase they made in March.

"The risks are shifting in that direction," said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Plc. "The bond market is a little complacent about it and is likely taking its cue from wage growth, which remains modest."

Here is the strengthening case for a faster pace.

Take a look at the chart below on Euro-area forecasts. It's not that growth is on fire, but forecasts are starting to get marked up as election risk and other uncertainties fade. The International Monetary Fund forecast in April that global growth would rise to 3.5 percent this year from 3.1 percent last year. A more synchronous global recovery adds a tailwind to the U.S. expansion as export markets strengthen and financial conditions remain easy.

The next chart shows that the real, inflation-adjusted federal funds rate is still negative at a time when the economy has exceeded central bankers' median estimate for full employment and inflation is near their 2 percent target. U.S. unemployment was 4.4 percent last month. Fed officials currently estimate the longer-run sustainable rate is 4.7 percent. Such aggressive stimulus at this stage of the economic cycle is unusual and intentional. Fed Chair Janet Yellen has tried to pull more people back to the labor force by keeping rates low and is also removing accommodation only gradually in an attempt to preserve the expansion.

Yellen and the Federal Open Market Committee are making a big bet that inflation stays in check while they allow the economy to probe the limits of labor market slack. Economists, however, admit that they don't understand inflation dynamics very well, and the committee is wagering that public expectations are strongly anchored around 2 percent. Yet inflation expectations are also influenced by central bank actions.

"They are taking risks here," said former Fed governor Laurence Meyer, the head of a Washington policy research firm that bears his name.

"You are beyond full employment, you have confidence you are heading toward sustainable 2 percent inflation, and you have above trend growth for the next two years," he added. "And they are going slow."

While inflation does look calm — it has been at or above the FOMC's target only once since April 2012 — Tom Porcelli, the chief U.S. economist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, notes that wage pressures typically do not build up in an orderly fashion. In the last business cycle, one gauge of average hourly earnings jumped dramatically in a one-year period.

"You get this big run in earnings toward the end of the cycle. We are getting to that point," said Porcelli, who forecasts the FOMC will move to four hikes for 2018. "You can make the argument that the Fed is not buying enough insurance now against this outcome, and the real risk is the market is way off" when they do.

Source: bloomberg.com

Investors and the Federal Reserve may have grown too comfortable with gradualism — raising interest rates at a pace that is not too fast, not too slow, but just right. The outlook could abruptly shift if global growth gains momentum and U.S. unemployment sinks much lower.

Markets look complacent. Prices in interest-rate futures show almost a 90 percent probability of a hike in June, according to the CME Group in Chicago. While investors have been moving toward another increase by the end of the year, they're not entirely convinced, according to Bloomberg calculations. Volatility has also slumped across different classes of financial assets, with a Merrill Lynch index that gauges options prices on Treasuries is near its lowest levels in data going back to 1988.

The risk, of course, is that when Fed officials release their statement and updated quarterly forecasts at the end of their June 13-14 policy meeting, they'll signal a steeper path of rate hikes than the three annual moves that are currently penciled in for 2017 and 2018.

Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren explicitly took a step in that direction this week, urging his colleagues to raise rates three more times this year, on top of the increase they made in March.

"The risks are shifting in that direction," said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Plc. "The bond market is a little complacent about it and is likely taking its cue from wage growth, which remains modest."

Here is the strengthening case for a faster pace.

Take a look at the chart below on Euro-area forecasts. It's not that growth is on fire, but forecasts are starting to get marked up as election risk and other uncertainties fade. The International Monetary Fund forecast in April that global growth would rise to 3.5 percent this year from 3.1 percent last year. A more synchronous global recovery adds a tailwind to the U.S. expansion as export markets strengthen and financial conditions remain easy.

The next chart shows that the real, inflation-adjusted federal funds rate is still negative at a time when the economy has exceeded central bankers' median estimate for full employment and inflation is near their 2 percent target. U.S. unemployment was 4.4 percent last month. Fed officials currently estimate the longer-run sustainable rate is 4.7 percent. Such aggressive stimulus at this stage of the economic cycle is unusual and intentional. Fed Chair Janet Yellen has tried to pull more people back to the labor force by keeping rates low and is also removing accommodation only gradually in an attempt to preserve the expansion.

Yellen and the Federal Open Market Committee are making a big bet that inflation stays in check while they allow the economy to probe the limits of labor market slack. Economists, however, admit that they don't understand inflation dynamics very well, and the committee is wagering that public expectations are strongly anchored around 2 percent. Yet inflation expectations are also influenced by central bank actions.

"They are taking risks here," said former Fed governor Laurence Meyer, the head of a Washington policy research firm that bears his name.

"You are beyond full employment, you have confidence you are heading toward sustainable 2 percent inflation, and you have above trend growth for the next two years," he added. "And they are going slow."

While inflation does look calm — it has been at or above the FOMC's target only once since April 2012 — Tom Porcelli, the chief U.S. economist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, notes that wage pressures typically do not build up in an orderly fashion. In the last business cycle, one gauge of average hourly earnings jumped dramatically in a one-year period.

"You get this big run in earnings toward the end of the cycle. We are getting to that point," said Porcelli, who forecasts the FOMC will move to four hikes for 2018. "You can make the argument that the Fed is not buying enough insurance now against this outcome, and the real risk is the market is way off" when they do.

Source: bloomberg.com

lastest Articles

Market Analysis
May’s Resignation means Brexit is Back to Square One
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 24.05.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD clings to modest recovery gains, 1.2700 mark back on sight post-UK data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Interim resistance emerges at the 55-day SMA at 1.1236
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold in search of a firm direction, holds steady near $1275 area
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD remains under pressure near 1.1150 post-German GDP
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 22.05.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOMC Minutes to portray a cautious tone
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD technical analysis: Hammered down to 4-1/2 lows, vulnerable to test 1.2600 mark
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY -21.02.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
RBA: Rate cut in June and August?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD resumes the downside near 1.1150 ahead of ECB, data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB's de Cos: European financial system remains fragile
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY remains sidelined below the 123.00 handle
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD seen at 1.15 in 6-month – Danske Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/CAD Canadian Dollar Lower Despite Reaching Tariff Agreement With US
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 17.05.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold drops to session lows, retreats further below $1300 mark
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Short-term consolidation?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
JPY futures: room for further depreciation
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/TRY edging higher, approaches the 6.10 area
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
AUD/USD technical analysis: Bears flirting with 1-week old descending trend-channel support
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 14.05.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD keeps the red below mid-1.2900s, 2-week lows post-UK jobs data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Recent tops and the 55-day SMA keeps limiting extra gains
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Balance of risks still favour 1.10 in 2Q19
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY -13.05.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BoE's Broadbent: Doesn't know which way rates would go in case of a messy no-deal Brexit
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar falls as the US-China trade war intensifies
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 10.05.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Central Banks: Space to deliver more easing, if required – Standard Chartered
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY fails to extend attempted recovery beyond 110.00 mark
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 09.05.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
AUD finds little relief in RBA steady hand
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: Door open for extra losses to 128.40
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US Dollar Index probes daily tops near 97.60
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold eases from near 2-week tops, focus remains on US-China trade talks
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY in search of a firm direction, stuck in a range below 111.00 mark
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Near term bearish below the 55-day SMA at 1.1268
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Australia: Lowest real retail growth since 2012
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 06.05.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD: Short term downtrend eroded - Commerzbank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar softens on wage focus; RBA and RBNZ easing eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 03.05.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Techs lean bearish ahead of US non-farm payrolls
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Asia: Material improvement in external positions
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Technical Analysis: Falls to over 1-week lows, further slide to $1260 area now looks a distinct possibility
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY -02.05.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar rally stalls ahead of FOMC, NFP, Trade Talks, and Earnings
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Big Earnings, Rate Decisions and US GDP once markets return from holiday
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
AUD/USD inches higher to 0.7160, but lacks follow-through
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY frozen near 111.90 ahead of US housing data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Yen ignores BOJ operation, Good Friday quiet trading to extend
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD consolidates the slide near 1.1250, US retail sales eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY-18.04.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
Easter Trading Schedule
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD is holding steady
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD: Recovery towards 1.3100 on its way ahead of UK CPI
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FX Today: Antipodeans rescued by strong China data; focus on UK/ Eurozone CPI
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB said not to have discusses further deposit rate cuts
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Aussie trips on dovish RBA minutes; eyes on UK wages, German ZEW
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY -16.04.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR shorts increased, GBP shorts trimmed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Managed Forex Accounts Weekly Results- April, week 15
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar Softens Awaiting US Retail Sales
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD steadily climbs to session tops, aims to reclaim 1.3100 mark
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/GBP continues to consolidate
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY -12.04.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB: Press conference is an opportunity to inject confidence into the economy
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD continues to show signs of recovery
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY -10.04.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 09.04.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD: Upside remains capped near 1.3070 amid Brexit stalemate
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Weekly Results
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD to remain steady around the ECB meeting – Danske Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar Rises on Strong US Jobs Data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold waits for US employment data near $1290
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB unlikely to provide much in terms of steps forward
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD probing daily highs near 1.1230 ahead of NFP
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
AUD: RBA and politics to keep a lid
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 04.04.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD upside still capped by 1.1250, ECB eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 03.04.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay opens the door to a second referendum, GBP/USD holds high ground
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD rebounds to 1.1250 amid positive German yields, weaker USD
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Managed Forex Accounts Weekly Results
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Brexit amongst key market moving events today
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
April optimism could be key turning point for global growth
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/GBP breaks below the 100-day SMA to fresh lows near 0.8550
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: Set-up remains in favor of bearish traders ahead of UK macro data/Brexit vote
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 29.03.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
UK PM May's spokesman: Guaranteed way of leaving on May 22 is to win MV3 on Friday
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY finds support near 110, rebounds modestly ahead of US GDP data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 28.03.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
AUD/USD clings to gains near session tops, comfortable above 0.7100 handle
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY sticks to modest gains above 110.00 handle, but lacks follow-through
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 25.03.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar Recovers Fed Driven Losses on Safe-haven Flows
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB’s Draghi: International trade is main reason for slowdown
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BoE: No surprises here – Deutsche Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613