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FX Tech Targets 17.05.2017

EUR/USD: Shift from neutral to bullish: Strong rally has scope to extend to 1.1200.

While the rally appears to be running ahead of itself, strong and impulsive momentum suggests that there is scope for extension to 1.1200. In view of the outsized decline in EUR after the US election in November last year, resistances are few and far apart and a break above 1.1200 would shift the focus to the 1.1300, the high seen on the day of election. In order to maintain the current impulsive momentum, any short-term pull-back is expected to be shallow and brief. From here, a move below 1.1000 is enough to indicate that an interim top is in place.

GBP/USD: Neutral: In a 1.2830/1.3000 range.

The neutral phase that started about 2 weeks ago is still intact as GBP continues to trade sideways. At this stage, there is no early indication that GBP is ready to move out of the expected 1.2830/1.3000 consolidation range. Looking further ahead, there is a slight bias for a possible upside ‘break’ but on the minimum, this pair has to close above 1.2960 to warrant a more positive outlook.

AUD/USD: Neutral: Rebound has room to extend to 0.7480/85. [No change in view]

We shifted from a bearish to neutral stance on AUD yesterday and there is no change to the view. The overnight high of 0.7446 was just above the expected 0.7330/0.7445 consolidation range. That said, upward momentum has improved considerably with the positive daily closing and from here, the current rebound has room to extend higher towards the key 0.7480/85 resistance (declining trend-line). A clear break above this level would indicate that AUD has moved into a bullish phase. The odds for a shift to a bullish phase are not high now but would continue to improve as long as AUD can hold above 0.7370 in the next several days.

NZD/USD: Neutral: In a 0.6850/0.6950 range.

We just turned neutral on NZD yesterday and there is no change to the view. The price action appears to be the very early stages of a basing phase but it is still early days. In the meanwhile, this pair is expected to trade sideways, likely within 0.6850 and 0.6950.

USD/JPY: Neutral: Immediate downward pressure towards 112.00.

'While USD is still holding within the expected 112.50/114.20 consolidation range, the rapid pace of the decline over the past 24 hours was unexpected. At this stage, we view the current weakness as a ‘deep pull-back’ and not the start of a bearish reversal. That said, the pull-back has scope to extend lower towards 112.00. Only a clear break below this level would indicate that the start of a bearish phase. For now, the odds for such a move are not high but unless USD can reclaim 113.40 within these 1 to 2 days, the immediate downward pressure would increase quickly.

Source: efxnews.com

EUR/USD: Shift from neutral to bullish: Strong rally has scope to extend to 1.1200.

While the rally appears to be running ahead of itself, strong and impulsive momentum suggests that there is scope for extension to 1.1200. In view of the outsized decline in EUR after the US election in November last year, resistances are few and far apart and a break above 1.1200 would shift the focus to the 1.1300, the high seen on the day of election. In order to maintain the current impulsive momentum, any short-term pull-back is expected to be shallow and brief. From here, a move below 1.1000 is enough to indicate that an interim top is in place.

GBP/USD: Neutral: In a 1.2830/1.3000 range.

The neutral phase that started about 2 weeks ago is still intact as GBP continues to trade sideways. At this stage, there is no early indication that GBP is ready to move out of the expected 1.2830/1.3000 consolidation range. Looking further ahead, there is a slight bias for a possible upside ‘break’ but on the minimum, this pair has to close above 1.2960 to warrant a more positive outlook.

AUD/USD: Neutral: Rebound has room to extend to 0.7480/85. [No change in view]

We shifted from a bearish to neutral stance on AUD yesterday and there is no change to the view. The overnight high of 0.7446 was just above the expected 0.7330/0.7445 consolidation range. That said, upward momentum has improved considerably with the positive daily closing and from here, the current rebound has room to extend higher towards the key 0.7480/85 resistance (declining trend-line). A clear break above this level would indicate that AUD has moved into a bullish phase. The odds for a shift to a bullish phase are not high now but would continue to improve as long as AUD can hold above 0.7370 in the next several days.

NZD/USD: Neutral: In a 0.6850/0.6950 range.

We just turned neutral on NZD yesterday and there is no change to the view. The price action appears to be the very early stages of a basing phase but it is still early days. In the meanwhile, this pair is expected to trade sideways, likely within 0.6850 and 0.6950.

USD/JPY: Neutral: Immediate downward pressure towards 112.00.

'While USD is still holding within the expected 112.50/114.20 consolidation range, the rapid pace of the decline over the past 24 hours was unexpected. At this stage, we view the current weakness as a ‘deep pull-back’ and not the start of a bearish reversal. That said, the pull-back has scope to extend lower towards 112.00. Only a clear break below this level would indicate that the start of a bearish phase. For now, the odds for such a move are not high but unless USD can reclaim 113.40 within these 1 to 2 days, the immediate downward pressure would increase quickly.

Source: efxnews.com

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