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FX Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD

EUR/USD: Neutral: Immediate downward pressure to 1.1025.

We shifted from a bullish to neutral stance yesterday, 29 May and the move was timely as EUR dropped sharply after NY close to take out the strong 1.1130 support (low of 1.1125 at the time of writing). While we indicated that “the immediate bias is for a probe lower towards the bottom of the expected 1.1100/1.1250 consolidation range”, the rapid pace of pull-back coupled with the vastly improved downward momentum suggests that a move below 1.1100 would not be surprising. To put it another way, instead of expecting a 1.1100/1.1250 consolidation range, we now expect a deeper pull-back towards 1.1025, the minor peak seen earlier this month as well as rising trend-line support. At this stage, a sustained move below this level is not expected. Overall, the current downward pressure would continue to increase unless EUR can move and stay above 1.1190 within these few days.

GBP/USD: Bearish: To take partial profit at 1.2755/60.

The rebound from the 1.2775 low last Friday is viewed as a correction and the bearish phase that started last Friday, 26 May (spot at 1.2900) is still intact. That said, the sharp decline appears to be running ahead of itself and those who are short should look to take partial profit near 1.2755/60 (next support is at the February’s peak near 1.2705).

AUD/USD: Neutral: In a 0.7380/0.7480 range.

AUD registered an extremely narrow range of 22 pips yesterday, between 0.7428 and 0.7450. As far as we can see, this is the narrowest single day range since May 2014. That said, it does not offer more clue and the outlook for AUD is still deemed as neutral even though the immediate bias is for a probe lower towards the bottom of the 0.7380/0.7480 sideway trading range.

NZD/USD: Bullish: Took partial profit at 0.7075/80.

The partial profit taking level suggested at 0.7075/70 was exceeded as NZD briefly hit a high of 0.7089 yesterday (which interestingly is just one pip below the revised target of 0.7090). Waning upward momentum coupled with glaring ‘bearish divergence’ continues to suggest a low odds of extension beyond 0.7090 (next resistance at 0.7130). That said, the bullish phase that started last Tuesday, 23 May (spot at 0.7000) is deemed as intact until the stop-loss at 0.7000 is taken out (level remains unchanged from yesterday).

USD/JPY: Neutral: Still sideway albeit within a narrower 110.50/112.50 range. [No change in view]

USD dipped to a low of 110.85 last Friday before rebounding quickly. There is no change the neutral outlook for USD and we continue expect sideway trading, albeit within a narrower 110.50/112.50 range (from 110.20/113.10 previously). Looking further ahead, the downside appears to be more vulnerably but solid support can be expected at 110.50 ahead of the month-to-date low near 110.20.

Source: efxnews.com

EUR/USD: Neutral: Immediate downward pressure to 1.1025.

We shifted from a bullish to neutral stance yesterday, 29 May and the move was timely as EUR dropped sharply after NY close to take out the strong 1.1130 support (low of 1.1125 at the time of writing). While we indicated that “the immediate bias is for a probe lower towards the bottom of the expected 1.1100/1.1250 consolidation range”, the rapid pace of pull-back coupled with the vastly improved downward momentum suggests that a move below 1.1100 would not be surprising. To put it another way, instead of expecting a 1.1100/1.1250 consolidation range, we now expect a deeper pull-back towards 1.1025, the minor peak seen earlier this month as well as rising trend-line support. At this stage, a sustained move below this level is not expected. Overall, the current downward pressure would continue to increase unless EUR can move and stay above 1.1190 within these few days.

GBP/USD: Bearish: To take partial profit at 1.2755/60.

The rebound from the 1.2775 low last Friday is viewed as a correction and the bearish phase that started last Friday, 26 May (spot at 1.2900) is still intact. That said, the sharp decline appears to be running ahead of itself and those who are short should look to take partial profit near 1.2755/60 (next support is at the February’s peak near 1.2705).

AUD/USD: Neutral: In a 0.7380/0.7480 range.

AUD registered an extremely narrow range of 22 pips yesterday, between 0.7428 and 0.7450. As far as we can see, this is the narrowest single day range since May 2014. That said, it does not offer more clue and the outlook for AUD is still deemed as neutral even though the immediate bias is for a probe lower towards the bottom of the 0.7380/0.7480 sideway trading range.

NZD/USD: Bullish: Took partial profit at 0.7075/80.

The partial profit taking level suggested at 0.7075/70 was exceeded as NZD briefly hit a high of 0.7089 yesterday (which interestingly is just one pip below the revised target of 0.7090). Waning upward momentum coupled with glaring ‘bearish divergence’ continues to suggest a low odds of extension beyond 0.7090 (next resistance at 0.7130). That said, the bullish phase that started last Tuesday, 23 May (spot at 0.7000) is deemed as intact until the stop-loss at 0.7000 is taken out (level remains unchanged from yesterday).

USD/JPY: Neutral: Still sideway albeit within a narrower 110.50/112.50 range. [No change in view]

USD dipped to a low of 110.85 last Friday before rebounding quickly. There is no change the neutral outlook for USD and we continue expect sideway trading, albeit within a narrower 110.50/112.50 range (from 110.20/113.10 previously). Looking further ahead, the downside appears to be more vulnerably but solid support can be expected at 110.50 ahead of the month-to-date low near 110.20.

Source: efxnews.com

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