something interesting

<  BACK TO Market Analysis

PIG TODAY-Market response to the September FOMC - Westpac

Richard Franulovich, Research Analyst at Westpac, notes that the FOMC left policy unchanged, the statement and Chair Yellen though made clear that the “case for an interest rate increase has strengthened”, without committing to a specific meeting, while the dot plot shifted in a dovish direction throughout the forecast period.

Key Quotes

“In summary, a hawkish hold in the statement and a dovish set of dots.

·         The Fed made several key changes to its statement, all in a slightly more hawkish/constructive direction. The Fed now explicitly notes that, "Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced," a characterisation the Fed has eschewed from making for some time. That replaces, "near term risks have diminished."

·         The statement also inserted a fresh line indicating the possibility of a rate increase, borrowing from Chair Yellen’s Jackson Hole speech, “The Committee judges that the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened but decided, for the time being, to wait for further evidence of continued progress toward its objectives.” This is entirely sensible, keeping the case for a December hike firmly on the table without fully committing to it.

·         There were three dissenters who favoured a hike – George, Mester and surprisingly, Rosengren.

·         The assessment of current conditions saw only cosmetic changes - the Fed describes the labour market as continuing to “strengthen” and notes that activity has “picked up from the modest pace seen in the first half of this year”.

·         The dot plot showed the highly anticipated dovish tilt. For 2016 the median dot is at 1 hike, down from 2. That was always going to happen given there remains just one meeting this year where the Fed could feasibly lift rates – 14 Dec. Their next meeting, 2 Nov, is compromised by the presidential election a week later and in any case there is no press conference or fresh projections to help communicate a potential hike. There are three dots in favour of no change in rates this year, one might argue Bullard, Brainard, Tarullo or Evans based on recent commentary. That makes for quite a diversity of opinion - 3 favouring no hikes this year and 3 favouring a hike today.

·         As for 2017, the median favours 2 hikes, down from 3, while the 2018 median is unchanged at 3 hikes. The more dovish bias is clear to see when 2016 and 2017 are combined. Back in June the median dot showed 5 hikes through to end 2017 (2 in 2016 and 3 in 2017). Three months later the revised dot plot shows 3 hikes to end 2017 (1 in 21016 and 2 in 2017). The long run neutral rate fell 12.5bp to 2.875%.

Market implications

·         With market pricing for a 14 Dec hike already hovering at a relatively elevated 55-60% probability for some time there is not a heck of a lot of fresh potential interest rate support to fuel a meaningful leg up in the USD.

·         We do not feel that the USD has the wherewithal to make a more concerted run higher in the next few weeks - the ECB does not appear to be in any rush to extend QE, our US data surprise index remains a fair distance from hitting rock bottom levels while the FOMC is unlikely to deliver anything more than a very “dovish” December hike.”

Source: fxstreet.com

lastest Articles

Market Analysis
Carney going off script
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Asia Market Update
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX TRADING WISDOM
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Gold inching back
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD trims loses
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOMC minutes
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD & ECB minutes
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
UK jobs solid
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US Dollar upbeat, FOMC eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOMC minutes preview
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Oil prices set to fall?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Asian markets Update
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold recovers to $1282
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Mr. Markets
No Idea? Blame Brexit!
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/8b0332acc130dc650331fd558f82add2
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
NZD/USD fails to resist
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BoJ Aso Comments
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Asia Market Update
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
Forex Trading Wisdom
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
EUR/USD weaker
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD - 1.30 to the tes
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD - Bull Trap
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Asian Markets Update
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY flat-lined
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Mr. Markets
Back to Basics
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/8b0332acc130dc650331fd558f82add2
Market Analysis
NFP to increase by 175k in July
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD flirting with highs
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Aussie rescued
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Asian Markets Update
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BoE hawks can't help
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD finds support
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Oil dips
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Asian markets pull back
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USDJPY stabilizing
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Mr. Markets
Euro Edges Higher
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US Rates
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Oil prices capped
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BOJ’s Headlines
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BoE Preview
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
AUD: 'Patience Will Pay'
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Oil hovers above $52
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD - Another leg higher?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Asian markets Update
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Week Ahead
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD weakness short-lived?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Quote
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Forex Daily Targets
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BOE Preview
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB: QE exit strategy
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Asia Market Update
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Week Ahead
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar spins wheels
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD refreshes daily tops
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
USDJPY flirting with lows
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
CHF weakest in Asia
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Australia: Key events
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Yen loses ground
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
Look Who's Back!
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
EUR/USD - US data eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BoC takes a look forward
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
FED - What's next?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOMC Overview
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
UK GDP, the Fed & Oil
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
USD cautious ahead of FOMC
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold drops below 50-DMA
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD - bullish, focus on Fed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold settles lower
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Mr. Markets
The Return of the Spread
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/8b0332acc130dc650331fd558f82add2
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
AUD pain point
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD breaks higher
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BoC To Match Fed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD neutral to negative
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY slides farther
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
EUR/USD within range
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Daily Targets
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Canada: Odd one out?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold - Risk reversals
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Week Ahead
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold at 3-week high
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB Review
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
Forex Wisdom
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png