something interesting

<  BACK TO Market Analysis

 

The G10 market has pirouetted away from its extreme JPY focus last week to consider the potential FX impact of European banking frailties. With a notable German lender under the microscope due to concerns about capital adequacy in light of potential fines and related problems, European equities and credit have come under a degree of pressure. This has spilled over to some extent to the FX market via a widening of the EUR basis towards the widest levels this year, though still far from the lofty levels seen in genuine crises such as 2008 or 2012

Historically, banking crises and widening basis would have quickly led to a weaker EUR and much higher realised and implied volatility. But so far, the latest stresses have had almost no discernable impact on these vol metrics despite starting points that were already very low.

We see three key reasons for this mild response as follows:

1. ECB liquidity and systemic stability: unlike 2012, many more ECB mechanisms with a range of acronyms are in play to support the wider system and provide easy access to liquidity. These range from OMT to TLTRO to QE among others, but also factors such as negative rates and excess deposits from other sources help too. This can be seen in Figure 4 and Figure 5. European money markets are not showing material signs of idiosyncratic stress. Dec IMM Euribor minus Eonia spreads have moved a touch higher but are easily lagging the move that money market reforms in the US prompted earlier in similar US LIBOR minus OIS spreads. And from a longer-term perspective, the spread widening in both Euribor minus OIS and the EUR basis is trivial. Also, the USD funding requirement of European banks is much lower than before 2012 due to lower operational requirements for USD-funded balance sheets

m79.PNG

2. German policy: markets suspect the German government would not allow a major lender to fail, even if significant losses are imposed on shareholders and some creditors. This limits the capacity to generate systemic risk.

3. EUR is now a funding currency: unlike the period up to 2012, the euro area now systematically runs a large current account surplus, which both adds to excess liquidity and means that euro area investors provide rather than need capital flow funding on a net basis. This limits exposure to risk-off situations – indeed those that could trigger repatriation flows could even be helpful.

In this context, we take a relatively benign view of these events and maintain our EURUSD 1.15 three month target.

Source: efxnews.com

 

The G10 market has pirouetted away from its extreme JPY focus last week to consider the potential FX impact of European banking frailties. With a notable German lender under the microscope due to concerns about capital adequacy in light of potential fines and related problems, European equities and credit have come under a degree of pressure. This has spilled over to some extent to the FX market via a widening of the EUR basis towards the widest levels this year, though still far from the lofty levels seen in genuine crises such as 2008 or 2012

Historically, banking crises and widening basis would have quickly led to a weaker EUR and much higher realised and implied volatility. But so far, the latest stresses have had almost no discernable impact on these vol metrics despite starting points that were already very low.

We see three key reasons for this mild response as follows:

1. ECB liquidity and systemic stability: unlike 2012, many more ECB mechanisms with a range of acronyms are in play to support the wider system and provide easy access to liquidity. These range from OMT to TLTRO to QE among others, but also factors such as negative rates and excess deposits from other sources help too. This can be seen in Figure 4 and Figure 5. European money markets are not showing material signs of idiosyncratic stress. Dec IMM Euribor minus Eonia spreads have moved a touch higher but are easily lagging the move that money market reforms in the US prompted earlier in similar US LIBOR minus OIS spreads. And from a longer-term perspective, the spread widening in both Euribor minus OIS and the EUR basis is trivial. Also, the USD funding requirement of European banks is much lower than before 2012 due to lower operational requirements for USD-funded balance sheets

m79.PNG

2. German policy: markets suspect the German government would not allow a major lender to fail, even if significant losses are imposed on shareholders and some creditors. This limits the capacity to generate systemic risk.

3. EUR is now a funding currency: unlike the period up to 2012, the euro area now systematically runs a large current account surplus, which both adds to excess liquidity and means that euro area investors provide rather than need capital flow funding on a net basis. This limits exposure to risk-off situations – indeed those that could trigger repatriation flows could even be helpful.

In this context, we take a relatively benign view of these events and maintain our EURUSD 1.15 three month target.

Source: efxnews.com

lastest Articles

Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY (15.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (14.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Breaking Rules
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Gold Prices May Fall on US CPI Uptick, Hawkish Powell Comments
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD gyrates around 1.1300 ahead of EMU GDP, US CPI
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FX Today: Pound sees two-way trading in Asia, Eyes on German GDP, Brexit Cabinet meeting, UK CPI
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (13.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 13.11.2018
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Risk rebounds on easing US-China trade woes; UK wages, ZEW – Key
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (12.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US Dollar Flying High on Hawkish Fed Statement
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Trading Rule #10
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
GBP/USD challenges 1.3000 post-UK data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY retreats further from 5-week tops, at low point of the day
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (08.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: Upside capped by the 200-day SMA at 130.21
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Trading Rule #9
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Forex Today: US dollar extends post-US election recovery ahead of FOMC decision
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (07.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Crude Oil Technical Analysis: Black Gold continues its descent as bearish EIA data sends WTI to $61.00 a barrel
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Trading Rule #8
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOMC: No urgency to raise policy rates
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY ( 07.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold turns higher for the day, up little around $1235 level
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Trading Rule #7
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Forex Today: US dollar better bid heading into the US mid-term elections
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (05.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY (05.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Trading Rule #6
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
FX Today: GBP – a big mover in Asia on mixed Brexit news, focus on UK services PMI
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
It's Time To Fall Back
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Weekly Results (29.10-02.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Strong Fundamentals Boost Dollar with US Midterms in Focus
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY struggles to build on positive move beyond 113.00 handle, NFP in focus
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Trading Rule #5
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY (02.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (01.11.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Trading Rule #4
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Gold stages a solid rebound from 3-week lows amid notable USD supply
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY- 01.11.2018
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (31.10.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Breaking News: GBP/USD jumps as Raab says a Brexit deal is expected by November 21
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD – Euro yawns as Eurozone CPI, GDP meet forecasts
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB’s Visco: Widening of Italy-German yield spread reflects the risk of default
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Trading Rule #3
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY( 31.10.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (30.10.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY (30.10.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Trading Rule #2
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
EUR/USD still looks to a visit of 1.1315/01 – Commerzbank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Trump offers reprieve to Asia, focus shifts to Eurozone GDP, German CPI
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (29.10.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Cautious start to a Big week ahead, eyes on UK Annual Budget report
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Trading Rule #1
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 29.10.2018
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar Pays Heavy Price for Equity Sell Off
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (26.10.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/CAD Technical Analysis: Big bears offering Friday surprise as the market is reversing down sharply to 1.3050 level
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Technical Analysis: Bulls keep the trend intact as the Yellow Metal is nearing $1,250.00/oz
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY -26.10.2018
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom:Talk yourself out of bad trades
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (25.10.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY sticks to modest recovery gains, above 128.00 mark post-ECB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Judge yourself not by the outcome
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Set-up points to an extension of the bearish trend, ECB awaited
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold turns lower, hits intraday low around $1230
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY recovers a major part of early slide to over 1-week lows, retakes 112.00 mark and beyond
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
Changes on Banking
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (24.10.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Flirting with a descending trend-channel support, 6-week lows ahead of May's speech
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/JPY struggles near 6-week lows, just below mid-145.00s
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/CAD recovers to 1.3100 ahead of BOC rate hike
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: trading is to play great defense
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
AUD/USD surrenders early gains to levels beyond 0.7100 handle
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Forming a bearish Head & Shoulders pattern on hourly chart
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold: In a sideways consolidation phase, around $1230 level
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (23.10.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
EUR/USD recovery halted ahead of 1.1490
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/CAD – Canadian dollar continues to drift, BoC expected to raise rates
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US Dollar Index fades the spike to tops above 96.00
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: your goal is to trade well
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: The pair remains capped by the lower 1.1600s
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Brexit: Negotiations continuing – Deutsche Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP futures: neutral so far, further decline not ruled out
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (22.10.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
GBP/USD flirting with lows, back closer to 1.30 handle
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Ascending trend-channel support prospects for additional gains
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Banks, miners led the way higher for FTSE 100
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD reverses course, hits lows near 1.3050 on Brexit anxiety
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Weekly Results (15.10-19.10.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
FOREX WEEK AHEAD
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (19.10.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Gold: bulls making a fresh attempt to build on momentum beyond 100-day EMA
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/GBP rebound seen as corrective only – Commerzbank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: The cross met support in the 128.30 region. Remains vulnerable
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY clings to strong recovery gains, around mid-112.00s
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Scope for a new visit to 2018 lows at 1.1299
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD struggles near 1-week lows, around 1.3100 handle
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Yuan loses ground after U.S. stops short of calling China a currency manipulator
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613