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PIG TODAY-USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, CHF, AUD, NZD: Weekly Outlook - Morgan Stanley

 

USD: Bearish USD for Now. Bearish.

We still expect a dovish Fed to weaken USD but there are increasing risks to this view. Our 3Q GDP tracking was boosted to 3.7%, though we now expect an even sharper deceleration into 4Q. Similarly, we expect a bounce in AHE to 2.7% in next week's employment report. We still like selling USD against EM and G10 commodity currencies which are more likely to benefit from a dovish Fed and low G4 yields. A risk-off environment is another key risk to our view but we don't see any imminent catalysts to derail the risk rally.

EUR: Bank Repatriation in Action. Bullish.

We stick to the long EURUSD position* in our portfolio to express our bearish USD view. We think that worries about the European banking sector are actually a bullish sign for the currency as it may lead to banks selling off foreign assets and bringing the money back home. The low EMU yields and flat yield curves have hit banks' profitability, reducing their willingness to absorb foreign FX risk. Banks' foreign loan books growth has also slowed, indicating that long-term capital exports are insufficient to offset the commercial demand for EUR arising from the EMU's current account surplus. This, coupled with the ECB appearing to be on hold for now, supports our bullish EUR view.

JPY: USDJPY Facing Key Levels. Neutral.

The BoJ's change to its monetary policy framework this week is unlikely to change things just yet for JPY but we think there are some building blocks in place for long term JPY weakness through the form of large fiscal stimulus and increased bank profitability. In the near-term though, the 100 and 102.50 levels will be key to see which way USDJPY breaks out of its current range. A weak USD may be enough alone for USDJPY to break to the downside and increase pressure on policy makers to act. A close above 102.50 would be a sign USDJPY has bottomed.

GBP: Hard Brexit Worries. Bearish.

While the demand side of the post-Brexit UK economy has held up better than expected, we think a slowdown in the supply side will weigh on GBP going forward. This is supported by the latest BoE agents' survey reporting that corporates' investment intentions have fallen. Investors have also turned their attention back to Brexit as the government's negotiation position remains unclear, with risks tilted towards a hard Brexit which will significantly reduce the UK's access to the EU market, hitting UK growth. We like expressing our bearish GBP view through buying EURGBP. This week, we watch GDP and PMI numbers

CHF: Upside Against USD. Bullish.

We expect EURCHF to remain relatively stable in its 1.08-1.10 range but have more upside potential against USD. In its latest statement, the SNB lowered its 2017 and 2018 inflation forecasts, indicating that they are likely to maintain their current policy stance. Given our projections for further USD weakness on the back of the Fed not hiking this year, we prefer expressing our bullish CHF view through short USDCHF positions. USDCHF could have more downside to its August low of around 0.9560, in ourview.

AUD: Further Upside. Bullish.

We think AUD has further room to appreciate against the USD if risk remains supported as decent data is enough to keep the RBA on hold and investors seeking higheryielding assets. RBA assistant Governor Kent struck an upbeat tone this week and better than expected GDP growth (though with a mixed breakdown) as well as a falling UE rate are good enough to limit the risks of RBA rate cuts, despite a still worrisome inflation outlook. The RBA accord signed by new Gov. Lowe also emphasized their ability to take into account financial stability concerns when making monetary policy. With AUDUSD at 0.77, it still has room to go higher before the RBA becomes too worried about overvaluation.

NZD: RBNZ Not Stopping NZD Appreciation. Bullish.

The more dovish than expected RBNZ will not be enough to stop outright NZD appreciation but may enough to cause underperformance relative to AUD. The RBNZ changed its statement very little last week despite improving growth data and milk prices and also pointed to slowing house price appreciation. Nonetheless, we believe only an aggressive easing cycle will change the trend in NZD and we won't get more clarity on this until the November MPS. Inflation remains low, but even if the RBNZ does small amounts of easing, it is difficult for the central bank to weaken the currency in a time when markets are looking for anything high yield.

Source:efxnews.com

 

USD: Bearish USD for Now. Bearish.

We still expect a dovish Fed to weaken USD but there are increasing risks to this view. Our 3Q GDP tracking was boosted to 3.7%, though we now expect an even sharper deceleration into 4Q. Similarly, we expect a bounce in AHE to 2.7% in next week's employment report. We still like selling USD against EM and G10 commodity currencies which are more likely to benefit from a dovish Fed and low G4 yields. A risk-off environment is another key risk to our view but we don't see any imminent catalysts to derail the risk rally.

EUR: Bank Repatriation in Action. Bullish.

We stick to the long EURUSD position* in our portfolio to express our bearish USD view. We think that worries about the European banking sector are actually a bullish sign for the currency as it may lead to banks selling off foreign assets and bringing the money back home. The low EMU yields and flat yield curves have hit banks' profitability, reducing their willingness to absorb foreign FX risk. Banks' foreign loan books growth has also slowed, indicating that long-term capital exports are insufficient to offset the commercial demand for EUR arising from the EMU's current account surplus. This, coupled with the ECB appearing to be on hold for now, supports our bullish EUR view.

JPY: USDJPY Facing Key Levels. Neutral.

The BoJ's change to its monetary policy framework this week is unlikely to change things just yet for JPY but we think there are some building blocks in place for long term JPY weakness through the form of large fiscal stimulus and increased bank profitability. In the near-term though, the 100 and 102.50 levels will be key to see which way USDJPY breaks out of its current range. A weak USD may be enough alone for USDJPY to break to the downside and increase pressure on policy makers to act. A close above 102.50 would be a sign USDJPY has bottomed.

GBP: Hard Brexit Worries. Bearish.

While the demand side of the post-Brexit UK economy has held up better than expected, we think a slowdown in the supply side will weigh on GBP going forward. This is supported by the latest BoE agents' survey reporting that corporates' investment intentions have fallen. Investors have also turned their attention back to Brexit as the government's negotiation position remains unclear, with risks tilted towards a hard Brexit which will significantly reduce the UK's access to the EU market, hitting UK growth. We like expressing our bearish GBP view through buying EURGBP. This week, we watch GDP and PMI numbers

CHF: Upside Against USD. Bullish.

We expect EURCHF to remain relatively stable in its 1.08-1.10 range but have more upside potential against USD. In its latest statement, the SNB lowered its 2017 and 2018 inflation forecasts, indicating that they are likely to maintain their current policy stance. Given our projections for further USD weakness on the back of the Fed not hiking this year, we prefer expressing our bullish CHF view through short USDCHF positions. USDCHF could have more downside to its August low of around 0.9560, in ourview.

AUD: Further Upside. Bullish.

We think AUD has further room to appreciate against the USD if risk remains supported as decent data is enough to keep the RBA on hold and investors seeking higheryielding assets. RBA assistant Governor Kent struck an upbeat tone this week and better than expected GDP growth (though with a mixed breakdown) as well as a falling UE rate are good enough to limit the risks of RBA rate cuts, despite a still worrisome inflation outlook. The RBA accord signed by new Gov. Lowe also emphasized their ability to take into account financial stability concerns when making monetary policy. With AUDUSD at 0.77, it still has room to go higher before the RBA becomes too worried about overvaluation.

NZD: RBNZ Not Stopping NZD Appreciation. Bullish.

The more dovish than expected RBNZ will not be enough to stop outright NZD appreciation but may enough to cause underperformance relative to AUD. The RBNZ changed its statement very little last week despite improving growth data and milk prices and also pointed to slowing house price appreciation. Nonetheless, we believe only an aggressive easing cycle will change the trend in NZD and we won't get more clarity on this until the November MPS. Inflation remains low, but even if the RBNZ does small amounts of easing, it is difficult for the central bank to weaken the currency in a time when markets are looking for anything high yield.

Source:efxnews.com

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