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PIG TODAY-05.10.2016-Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB

EUR/USD: Neutral: In a 1.1120/1.1290 range.

Despite the sudden burst in volatility, EUR closed largely unchanged yesterday. The neutral phase that started about 2 weeks ago is still intact and only a clear break out of the expected 1.1120/1.1290 sideway consolidation range would indicate the start of a sustained directional move. Interestingly, the 207 pips range for September (between 1.1119 and 1.1326) is the second narrowest monthly range on record (record was in June 2014 with a range of 194 pips). According to a Bloomberg report, the 3Q quarterly range is the narrowest on record.

GBP/USD: Bearish: Next support at 1.2620.

GBP continues to surprise us as the post-Brexit low of 1.2795/00 was easily taken out. There are no signs that the current bearish phase is about to end soon and further weakness to 1.2620 seems likely, even though the pace of any decline would likely be slower

AUD/USD: Neutral: Shift to bullish only if daily closing above 0.7710.

While the sharp pull-back yesterday has diminished the odds for a sustained AUD strength, the undertone is still positive and a clear break above 0.7710 could not be ruled out just yet. Only a move back below 0.7575/80 would indicate that AUD has lapsed back into a sideway consolidation range.

NZD/USD: Shift from neutral to bearish: Downside limited to 0.7110 for now.

NZD broke below the low end of our expected sideway consolidation range of 0.7200/0.7375 and this coupled with the weak daily closing suggests that further NZD weakness is likely in the coming days. That said, the decline appears to be ‘too fast and too much’ and at this stage, we expect the downside risk to be limited to 0.7110. In order to maintain the current momentum, any rebound should not move back above 0.7260.

USD/JPY: Shift from neutral to bullish: Target 103.35 followed by 104.30.

We highlighted yesterday that a daily closing above 102.30 would shift the outlook for USD to bullish. The up-move was more aggressive than expected as USD surged strongly to a high of 102.96. While the rally appears to be running ahead of itself, further USD strength still seems likely and from here, the next level to aim for is at 103.35 followed by the early September high of 104.30.

Source: efxnews.com

EUR/USD: Neutral: In a 1.1120/1.1290 range.

Despite the sudden burst in volatility, EUR closed largely unchanged yesterday. The neutral phase that started about 2 weeks ago is still intact and only a clear break out of the expected 1.1120/1.1290 sideway consolidation range would indicate the start of a sustained directional move. Interestingly, the 207 pips range for September (between 1.1119 and 1.1326) is the second narrowest monthly range on record (record was in June 2014 with a range of 194 pips). According to a Bloomberg report, the 3Q quarterly range is the narrowest on record.

GBP/USD: Bearish: Next support at 1.2620.

GBP continues to surprise us as the post-Brexit low of 1.2795/00 was easily taken out. There are no signs that the current bearish phase is about to end soon and further weakness to 1.2620 seems likely, even though the pace of any decline would likely be slower

AUD/USD: Neutral: Shift to bullish only if daily closing above 0.7710.

While the sharp pull-back yesterday has diminished the odds for a sustained AUD strength, the undertone is still positive and a clear break above 0.7710 could not be ruled out just yet. Only a move back below 0.7575/80 would indicate that AUD has lapsed back into a sideway consolidation range.

NZD/USD: Shift from neutral to bearish: Downside limited to 0.7110 for now.

NZD broke below the low end of our expected sideway consolidation range of 0.7200/0.7375 and this coupled with the weak daily closing suggests that further NZD weakness is likely in the coming days. That said, the decline appears to be ‘too fast and too much’ and at this stage, we expect the downside risk to be limited to 0.7110. In order to maintain the current momentum, any rebound should not move back above 0.7260.

USD/JPY: Shift from neutral to bullish: Target 103.35 followed by 104.30.

We highlighted yesterday that a daily closing above 102.30 would shift the outlook for USD to bullish. The up-move was more aggressive than expected as USD surged strongly to a high of 102.96. While the rally appears to be running ahead of itself, further USD strength still seems likely and from here, the next level to aim for is at 103.35 followed by the early September high of 104.30.

Source: efxnews.com

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