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PIG TODAY-USD/JPY: Make Or Break At Key Resistance Zone - JP Morgan

 

The recent recovery from critical support levels for USD/JPY affirms the view for a continuation of the current consolidation phase. For the short term view, the price action since the June low continues to affirm the importance of the 100/99 support zone particularly given the reversal from the August low (99.54), as well as last month’s low (100.09).

Importantly, this area also represents the long term pivot level and the 50% retracement from the 2011 cycle low. While the price action above this area should maintain a two-sided bias, we continue to monitor key initial resistance levels for signs of a shift back to the perceived range highs.

a19.PNG

In this regard, the focus stays on the 104.32/105.62 resistance zone. This area includes the September peak, as well as 76.4% retracement from the July high and should define whether an extension back to the broad range highs can develop.

Importantly, the 107.50 area is the critical test, as it includes the July peak and the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the January high. While this area caps the upside, the medium-term downside risks are expected to prevail. Note that a failure to hold the 99 support area would target the 97/95.80 zone. This area represents the mid-to-late 2013 lows and 61.8% retracement from the 2011 cycle low.

Source: efxnews.com

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