something interesting

<  BACK TO Market Analysis

Australia: ROBUST May Labour Force survey

It was a solid update from Australian May lobour force survey and while most of the employment gains were in NSW, all other mainland states had a sound report with positive employment and falling unemployment, explains Justin Smirk, Research Analyst at Westpac.

Key Quotes

“This was a robust update from the May Labour Force survey. The much stronger than trend gain in employment was something that our Jobs Index has been pointing to for some time but given the historical volatility in the Labour Force Survey, and the more recent issues regarding changes made to the March/April/May surveys, we were not confident this strength would come through so soon even thought our forecasts for the next few months did incorporate such a recovery.”

“In May, total employment rose 42k for a 141.1k total gain over the last three months or an average of 47k per month. In the last three months the annual pace has lifted from 0.9%yr in February to 2.0%yr in May. Compare this to the 106.k gain, or 0.9%yr, in the year to February. The Australian labour market went through a soft patch in 2016 that was particularly pronounced through August to November when the average gain in employment per month was a paltry 2.2k. So far in 2016 the labour market has bounced out of that soft patch.”

“This solid gain in employment was also associated with a 0.1ppt lift in participation to 64.9 which saw a 23.4k gain in the labour force limiting the fall in the unemployment rate to 5.5% from 5.6% - at two decimal places the unemployment rate was 5.53%. We had been looking for the unemployment rate to fall over the next few months but had not expected it to get to 5.5% so soon.”

“There was the usual switching volatility in full-time/part-time employment. Full-time employment rose 52.1k following on from a -5.7k fall in April. In the year full-time employment gained 148k rising at a 1.8yr pace. Full-time employment growth is now exceeding the pace of growth in the working age population, the first time it has done so since February 2016. Part-time employment fell -10.1k but this followed an outsized 51.0k bump in April. In the year to May, part-time employment has lifted 48k but it continues to outpace full-time employment growth rising 2.2%yr.”

“By state, every mainland state reported a fall in unemployment except for NSW where the unemployment rate lifted 0.1ppt to 4.8% which is still well under the national average. In this case the rise in unemployment was due to a 0.5ppt rise in the participation rate as employment grew a solid 32.6k in the month. In turn it is worth noting that the bump in participation in NSW was mostly due to a 0.8ppt surge in female participation in that state. By comparison total employment rose 6.9k in Vic, 5.4k in Qld, 5.2k in SA and 4.3k in WA.”

“Further signs of the overall strength of this report was the 1.9%mth jump in hours worked taking the annual pace to 2.3yr; the 0.1ppt decline in youth unemployment to 12.7%; and, the 0.1ppt drop in the underemployment rate to 8.8%.”

“All up this is a very positive update on the labour market and while we still expect the monthly number to be quite volatile, the Jobs Index suggestion that total employment growth could hit 2¼% to 2½% by year’s end is now looking farm more plausible.”

Source: fxstreet.com

It was a solid update from Australian May lobour force survey and while most of the employment gains were in NSW, all other mainland states had a sound report with positive employment and falling unemployment, explains Justin Smirk, Research Analyst at Westpac.

Key Quotes

“This was a robust update from the May Labour Force survey. The much stronger than trend gain in employment was something that our Jobs Index has been pointing to for some time but given the historical volatility in the Labour Force Survey, and the more recent issues regarding changes made to the March/April/May surveys, we were not confident this strength would come through so soon even thought our forecasts for the next few months did incorporate such a recovery.”

“In May, total employment rose 42k for a 141.1k total gain over the last three months or an average of 47k per month. In the last three months the annual pace has lifted from 0.9%yr in February to 2.0%yr in May. Compare this to the 106.k gain, or 0.9%yr, in the year to February. The Australian labour market went through a soft patch in 2016 that was particularly pronounced through August to November when the average gain in employment per month was a paltry 2.2k. So far in 2016 the labour market has bounced out of that soft patch.”

“This solid gain in employment was also associated with a 0.1ppt lift in participation to 64.9 which saw a 23.4k gain in the labour force limiting the fall in the unemployment rate to 5.5% from 5.6% - at two decimal places the unemployment rate was 5.53%. We had been looking for the unemployment rate to fall over the next few months but had not expected it to get to 5.5% so soon.”

“There was the usual switching volatility in full-time/part-time employment. Full-time employment rose 52.1k following on from a -5.7k fall in April. In the year full-time employment gained 148k rising at a 1.8yr pace. Full-time employment growth is now exceeding the pace of growth in the working age population, the first time it has done so since February 2016. Part-time employment fell -10.1k but this followed an outsized 51.0k bump in April. In the year to May, part-time employment has lifted 48k but it continues to outpace full-time employment growth rising 2.2%yr.”

“By state, every mainland state reported a fall in unemployment except for NSW where the unemployment rate lifted 0.1ppt to 4.8% which is still well under the national average. In this case the rise in unemployment was due to a 0.5ppt rise in the participation rate as employment grew a solid 32.6k in the month. In turn it is worth noting that the bump in participation in NSW was mostly due to a 0.8ppt surge in female participation in that state. By comparison total employment rose 6.9k in Vic, 5.4k in Qld, 5.2k in SA and 4.3k in WA.”

“Further signs of the overall strength of this report was the 1.9%mth jump in hours worked taking the annual pace to 2.3yr; the 0.1ppt decline in youth unemployment to 12.7%; and, the 0.1ppt drop in the underemployment rate to 8.8%.”

“All up this is a very positive update on the labour market and while we still expect the monthly number to be quite volatile, the Jobs Index suggestion that total employment growth could hit 2¼% to 2½% by year’s end is now looking farm more plausible.”

Source: fxstreet.com

lastest Articles

Market Analysis
Gold loses momentum, edges lower toward $1300
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BOJ’s Kuroda: “We will mull more easing if price momentum is lost"
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOMC Preview: What 17 major banks are expecting from March meeting?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 19.03.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Technical Analysis: 18.03.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Fed is likely to signal just one more rate hike – Danske Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY -18.03.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD fades a knee-jerk bullish spike to levels beyond 1.3300 mark
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
AUD: RBA market pricing absorbed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: USD bounces alongside T-yields in Asia; UK politics/ Brexit in focus
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD remains bid and flirts with 1.1300, looks to Brexit, data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 13.03.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold adds to gains beyond $1300 mark, hits 1-1/2 week tops
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR: Shorts restrained
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY-12.03.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Brexit and US CPI amongst market movers today
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY -11.03.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/CAD struggles to gain positive traction, but holds above 1.3400 handle
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Bounce is likely - Commerzbank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD Pound Fails to Capitalize on Dollar Stumble Ahead of Brexit Votes
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold clings to recovery gains above $1290
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB: All focus on TLTRO announcement
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US: Focus on Fed speak and trade data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 06.03.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BoC: Policy rate likely to remain unchanged - Rabobank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD slides back closer to session lows, focus shifts to Carney's testimony
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold consolidates in a range, hangs near 6-week lows
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Antipodeans slip on China woes; Eurozone/ UK services PMI eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD: Prohibitive?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD drops to session low, bulls struggling to defend 1.3200 mark
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Risk-on amid US-China trade optimism; UK construction PMI – Up next
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Global growth hinges on China’s Big Week
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Technical Analysis: Bears await a sustained break below 1-month old trend-line support
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: The cross now targets the key 200-day SMA
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Yen weakest in Asia risk-on; focus on UK PMI, Eurozone CPI
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold bears looking for a break of the $1,300/oz level to 38.2% Fibo target
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD turns flat below 1.14 as DXY clings to gains above 96
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 28.02.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Oil: Prices stabilising
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Brexit to remain in focus this week
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold edges lower to $1325 level, focus remains on Powell’s testimony
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD within a tight range near 1.1350, focus on Powell
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold drops below $1330 as USD recovers modestly
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY challenges 2-day highs near 125.80
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 25.02.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/CAD Canadian Dollar Higher on Stronger Oil and Softer Dollar
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD eases from tops beyond 1.1350 post-IFO
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 22.02.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/GBP flirting with highs near 0.8700, focus on Brexit
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD struggles for direction near 1.1340
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Aussie sees big moves in Asia; Eurozone flash PMIs, ECB minutes – Up next
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOMC Minutes Preview: Major Banks expecting a reiteration of a dovish message
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Range preserved – Commerzbank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BoJ’s Kuroda: Doesn't believe current BoJ policy is weakening the Yen
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Comments from Fed’s Mester show balance sheet decision may come as early as March
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold bulls seeking out a run to $1,360/oz while now testing out 10-month highs
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD returns to 1.1300 on mixed German, EMU ZEW
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD eases from 3-day highs above 1.1330
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold bulls take a breather just ahead of $1326 level, or multi-month tops
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB to stay on hold in 2019-20 – Rabobank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar Falls as Trade Optimism and Domestic Uncertainty Take Their Toll
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Oil: Prices are undervalued given the current supply uncertainty - Rabobank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD rebound from 2019 lows, back around 1.1280
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold hits 2-week tops, around $1320 level amid global growth concerns
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD – Euro shrugs off soft German, eurozone GDP
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD falls to 1-month low, 1.2800 mark back on sight
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD is sitting at key support level
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/MXN holds bullish tone, near 19.30
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD recovers above 1.13 as greenback continues to weaken
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD: Downside seems limited in 2019 - Westpac
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD depressed and closer to 1.1300
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 11.02.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
China stocks climb after holiday break, driven by trade-deal hopes
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar’s next move depends on Trump’s trade progress and border wall funding concession
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
We see risk that EUR/USD could retreat towards 1.12 on a 3 to 6 mth view - Rabobank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD spikes to fresh session tops, around 1.2970 level
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (07.02.2019)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Technical Analysis: Descending channel/200-hour SMA confluence region to cap goodish intraday bounce
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: Bulls trying to defend descending channel support ahead of BoE
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EU slashes euro-zone growth forecast to 1.3%, Italy only 0.2% - EUR/USD pressured
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold slides to $1312 level
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD rallies over 40-pips from 2-week lows, refreshes session tops
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Choppy?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Wekly Results
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Soft Dollar and Strong Stock Market Supported by Dovish Fed and Strong US Economic Data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY-01.02.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD continues to consolidate
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (31.01.2019)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY drops to 6-day lows near 124.50
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Brexit: Drop the backstop and create a customs association, Ifo economists say
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (30.01.2019)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
AUD/USD: Upbeat inflation pleased Aussie bulls before Fed meets
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Upside stalled near the 100-day SMA
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (29.01.2019)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Why the Fed may not announce a change to its balance sheet plan on Wednesday
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD drops to session lows, recovers to 1.3150 as Brexit Plan B debate continues
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 29.01.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY 28.01.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar Falls Ahead of Busy Week in Markets
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613