something interesting

<  BACK TO Market Analysis

BoJ: Status quo or change?

BoJ-Status_FXPIG

According to Yujiro Goto, Research Analyst at Nomura, investor interest in the BOJ leadership change has been increasing with media interviews (Bloomberg and Reuters) with Etsuro Honda, one of the possible candidates for the next governor, attracted market interest last week.

Key Quotes

“Mr Honda argues that the BOJ needs a new leader to achieve its inflation goal of 2%, as the regime needs to be rebuilt. He said “if I was appointed, I will do the utmost and stake my life to defeat deflation,” openly showing his willingness to be the next BOJ governor. Mr Honda said the BOJ should commit itself to achieving the government’s aim of expanding nominal GDP to JPY600trn by reviewing a joint statement. He also called for further fiscal spending backed by BOJ purchases of JGBs, according to Reuters. The details of any new policies Mr Honda might propose were he to become the next governor are unclear, but his comments suggest there would be less differentiation between fiscal and monetary policies, which would likely increase market expectations for a helicopter-money-type policy mix.”

“FX investors see Governor Kuroda’s reappointment as increasingly the most likely scenario. The November FX investor survey released by Nikkei QUICK shows that 79% of respondents see Governor Kuroda’s reappointment as the most likely outcome, up from 55% and 60% in the previous two surveys. Deputy Governor Nakaso is still viewed as the second most likely next governor, but expectations have declined. The same is true for Masayoshi Amamiya, an executive director of the BOJ. The total share of these three candidates, or status-quo-type options, is still high at 93%. Only 5% of FX investors expect Mr Honda to be the next BOJ governor, while the share has risen marginally.” 

“Governor Kuroda repeated on Monday that there is still a long way to go to reach the 2% inflation goal and the BOJ will persist with aggressive easing. To determine the optimal shape of the yield curve, he touched on the “natural yield curve” and the “reversal rate”, two concepts that will be important to judge the timing of the exit policy in the future, but his current assessment does not suggest the exit is imminent. If Governor Kuroda is reappointed, the current policy framework is likely to be maintained. Reappointment of Governor Kuroda is the clear consensus scenario, and it would be a status quo option. Thus, it would probably not be JPY positive. In contrast, Mr Honda’s appointment would be viewed as a more dovish outcome, and so the appointment of the BOJ governor is an asymmetric risk event, in our view.”

Source: fxstreet.com

According to Yujiro Goto, Research Analyst at Nomura, investor interest in the BOJ leadership change has been increasing with media interviews (Bloomberg and Reuters) with Etsuro Honda, one of the possible candidates for the next governor, attracted market interest last week.

Key Quotes

“Mr Honda argues that the BOJ needs a new leader to achieve its inflation goal of 2%, as the regime needs to be rebuilt. He said “if I was appointed, I will do the utmost and stake my life to defeat deflation,” openly showing his willingness to be the next BOJ governor. Mr Honda said the BOJ should commit itself to achieving the government’s aim of expanding nominal GDP to JPY600trn by reviewing a joint statement. He also called for further fiscal spending backed by BOJ purchases of JGBs, according to Reuters. The details of any new policies Mr Honda might propose were he to become the next governor are unclear, but his comments suggest there would be less differentiation between fiscal and monetary policies, which would likely increase market expectations for a helicopter-money-type policy mix.”

“FX investors see Governor Kuroda’s reappointment as increasingly the most likely scenario. The November FX investor survey released by Nikkei QUICK shows that 79% of respondents see Governor Kuroda’s reappointment as the most likely outcome, up from 55% and 60% in the previous two surveys. Deputy Governor Nakaso is still viewed as the second most likely next governor, but expectations have declined. The same is true for Masayoshi Amamiya, an executive director of the BOJ. The total share of these three candidates, or status-quo-type options, is still high at 93%. Only 5% of FX investors expect Mr Honda to be the next BOJ governor, while the share has risen marginally.” 

“Governor Kuroda repeated on Monday that there is still a long way to go to reach the 2% inflation goal and the BOJ will persist with aggressive easing. To determine the optimal shape of the yield curve, he touched on the “natural yield curve” and the “reversal rate”, two concepts that will be important to judge the timing of the exit policy in the future, but his current assessment does not suggest the exit is imminent. If Governor Kuroda is reappointed, the current policy framework is likely to be maintained. Reappointment of Governor Kuroda is the clear consensus scenario, and it would be a status quo option. Thus, it would probably not be JPY positive. In contrast, Mr Honda’s appointment would be viewed as a more dovish outcome, and so the appointment of the BOJ governor is an asymmetric risk event, in our view.”

Source: fxstreet.com

lastest Articles

PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (21.05.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
USD/CAD break below 1.2850 and extends correction
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold capped at $1290.00/oz amid risk-on mood
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD upside capped around 1.1780
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Quote: Gut feel-Marcus
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
USD/JPY recedes from tops, around 111.30 ahed of Fedspeak
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Sterling falls as dollar climbs, EU customs union concerns weigh
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: US dollar cheers Asia risk-on, holiday-thinned trading to extend
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Market Events Ahead
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Weekly Update (14-18.05.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Dollar Rises Amid Italian Coalition and China-US Trade Uncertainty
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (18.05.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
USD/JPY fades 111.00 handle in tandem with US yields
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD challenges 2-week old trading range support near mid-1.3400s
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD tumbles further to 1.1750, fresh 2018 lows
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
Forex Trading Quote: putting things together-Kovner
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
EUR/GBP clings to strong recovery gains, but lacks follow through
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Yen hit a four-month low in Asia as T-yields kept climbing, risk-on likely in Europe
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (17.05.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Gold unable to recover as USD remains strong supported by yields
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
AUD/USD bears struggle to push it through 0.75 handle
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY continues to move higher, inching closer to 111.00 mark
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Quote: passion and energy-Buffet
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Euro slips on Italian political risk and U.S. bond yield rise
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Sterling strongest in Asia on Brexit news, a quiet session ahead
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (16.05.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
NZD/USD counter-move to 0.6900 as the US Dollar is taking a break
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/CAD stays rangebound near term – Scotiabank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD tumbles to fresh 2018 lows near 1.1760
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Quote:learning of mistakes-Livermore
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Dollar nears five-month high on bond yield surge, euro unfazed by Italy
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Safe-havens bid in Asia on N. Korea news, Eurozone CPI, Draghi’s speech eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (15.05.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
GBP/USD bulls reclaim the 1.3500 handle amid USD profit-taking
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD bounces off fresh 2018 lows around 1.1820
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
AUD/USD bears back in control, hammered down to mid-0.7400s
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Quote: plan and trade
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Sterling recovers losses after UK employment jump
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Aussie slips post-China data dump, UK earnings, Eurozone GDP on tap
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (14.05.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
NZD/USD under pressure below 0.6940 ahead of Chinese data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
WTI testing daily highs around $71.00
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY clings to daily gains near mid-109.00s but lacks follow-through
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Quote: the importance of methodology-Marcus
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Euro extends gains as dollar rally loses steam
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets 14.05.2018: EUR/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Aussie outperforms in Asia, a light calendar ahead
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Market Events Ahead
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar Ends Rally Awaiting US Retail Sales Data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (11.05.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
USD/CAD stabilizing below 1.2800 handle after 70-pip boost
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY above 130.50 post-Draghi speech
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY: Side of caution - Westpac
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: changing rule-Kovner
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Sterling headed for fourth successive weekly decline after BoE holds rates
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: US dollar consolidates in Asia, a light session ahead
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (10.05.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
GBP/USD at risk of additional weakness - Scotiabank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD fades US CPI-led bullish spike, back below 1.1900 handle
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets 10.05.2018: EUR/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
Forex Trading Quote: painful and disheartening
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
EUR/GBP sticks to daily gains post-UK data, BoE in focus
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold consolidates in a range above $1310, US CPI awaited
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Kiwi dumped on dovish RBNZ, UK data, Bank of England Super Thursday eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (09.05.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
USD/JPY: eyes on a break of 110 handle resistance to open 112 territories
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD could see gains extended to 1.2000/50
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD bulls challenge the 1.3600 handle as US Dollar retreats from highs
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
Forex Trading Quote:your own judgement-livermore
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
USD/JPY hits fresh session tops, inching closer to 110.00 mark
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US Dollar extends the rally above 93.00
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Oil and US dollar cheer Iran deal fallout, focus shifts to US PPI
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (08.05.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
AUD/USD catches a bounce as DXYU tails off
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD tumbles further, scope for a test of 1.1800
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY bounces off lows, regains 129.50
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Quote:do it-Pig-Insider
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
EUR/USD tumbles to fresh 2018 lows near 1.1880
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Mr. Markets
Can we survive liquidity Tsunami?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/8b0332acc130dc650331fd558f82add2
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Aussie hit by poor Australian retail sales, Powell, Trump speech eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (07.05.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
NZD/USD range intact amid USD profit-taking
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY – Japanese Yen Trading Sideway, Shrugs Off Upbeat Minutes
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Market and AltCoins First Quarter Analysis
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Quote: losing-Marcus
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Recovery mode intact near 1.1935 post-Eurozone Sentix
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets 07.05.2018: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Asian Markets Update:China stocks lead Asia higher, lifted by commodities
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Market Events Ahead
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar Keeps Going Strong as Growth Concerns Rise in Europe
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Weekly Update (24-05.05.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (03.05.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Sterling erases 2018 gains as dollar extends surge
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar hits 2018 high despite weaker jobs data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets 04.05.2018: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613