something interesting

<  BACK TO Market Analysis

Forex Ahead

FOREX_TRADING_FX_TRADER_ FXPIG_Dollar-2019

Dollar bulls have wined and dined like kings and queens in 2018.  The greenback appreciated the most against the emerging market currencies.  The earlier part of the year saw the focus on rising US interest rates and political stories lead the way lower for EM.  Trade wars also contributed to the risk-off narrative and will likely be a key area of focus in Q1.

  • Emerging Market Currencies will try to outperform early in H1
  • Stocks ready to rally once trade spat resolved
  • Brexit clarity needed before cable traders return

Volatility was the story for Q4 as some of the major indexes fell over 20%.  The panic that hit the markets saw safe-haven currencies surge on market uncertainty regarding trade wars, Fed quantitative tightening (QT), a partial government shutdown in the US, and Brexit worries.  While the data in the US has been softer, many parts of the economy are still strong, such as record-low unemployment and near 3.0% GDP growth.  With many risk events in play for the first quarter, we could see Fed policy remain on hold until the latter part of the year.  If the Fed pauses interest rate increases and signals a goal on when QT will stabilize, we could see some headwinds for the US dollar in the first half of the year.

Will the Oil bottom hold?

Thin volumes supported the Christmas Eve oil collapse to $42.36 and everyone will closely watch to see if that level holds.  While most analysts expect oil to be higher by the end of 2019, the fundamental concerns on both the supply and demand side could see the meltdown continue.  In January, we may hear more talks of extending cuts from OPEC+, US offshore drilling companies may need to scale back operations if oil stays near current levels, and if we see a framework agreement on the trade spat between the US and China, we could see positive sentiment return to the battered commodity.

Brexit outcome nearing

We are well under 90 days until the Brexit deadline and no one wants to trade sterling because no one has a clue how Brexit will play out.  The expectations are still slightly for a soft Brexit, but money managers are not ready just yet to place their bets.  A hard exit is still a possibility and that is preventing most long-term bullish bets from just being placed.  PM May appears poised to lose the vote in Parliament on the week of January 14th.  After the vote, we could see Jeremy Corbyn deliver on his threat of a no confidence motion on the government, which could lead to a general election.  The House of Commons recess ends on January 7th, but we could see the MPs called back earlier.  The smart money remains on the sidelines as the scenarios on how this will evolve remain plentiful.  We should start to see some positioning after the Parliament vote.

Treasuries continue to advance

US Treasury yields continue to slide as the 10-year yield fell to the lowest level since February.  The 10-year and 2-year gap widened to 19.85 basis points alleviating concerns that the Fed’s tightening process would invert the yield curve.  All eyes will be on Fed Chair Powell’s January 4th interview at the annual meeting of the American Economic Association in Atlanta.  The market does not agree with the Fed’s dot plot and seeks clarity on quantitative tightening, so every event Powell attends will be closely watched for further dovish commitments.

Source: marketpulse.com

Dollar bulls have wined and dined like kings and queens in 2018.  The greenback appreciated the most against the emerging market currencies.  The earlier part of the year saw the focus on rising US interest rates and political stories lead the way lower for EM.  Trade wars also contributed to the risk-off narrative and will likely be a key area of focus in Q1.

  • Emerging Market Currencies will try to outperform early in H1
  • Stocks ready to rally once trade spat resolved
  • Brexit clarity needed before cable traders return

Volatility was the story for Q4 as some of the major indexes fell over 20%.  The panic that hit the markets saw safe-haven currencies surge on market uncertainty regarding trade wars, Fed quantitative tightening (QT), a partial government shutdown in the US, and Brexit worries.  While the data in the US has been softer, many parts of the economy are still strong, such as record-low unemployment and near 3.0% GDP growth.  With many risk events in play for the first quarter, we could see Fed policy remain on hold until the latter part of the year.  If the Fed pauses interest rate increases and signals a goal on when QT will stabilize, we could see some headwinds for the US dollar in the first half of the year.

Will the Oil bottom hold?

Thin volumes supported the Christmas Eve oil collapse to $42.36 and everyone will closely watch to see if that level holds.  While most analysts expect oil to be higher by the end of 2019, the fundamental concerns on both the supply and demand side could see the meltdown continue.  In January, we may hear more talks of extending cuts from OPEC+, US offshore drilling companies may need to scale back operations if oil stays near current levels, and if we see a framework agreement on the trade spat between the US and China, we could see positive sentiment return to the battered commodity.

Brexit outcome nearing

We are well under 90 days until the Brexit deadline and no one wants to trade sterling because no one has a clue how Brexit will play out.  The expectations are still slightly for a soft Brexit, but money managers are not ready just yet to place their bets.  A hard exit is still a possibility and that is preventing most long-term bullish bets from just being placed.  PM May appears poised to lose the vote in Parliament on the week of January 14th.  After the vote, we could see Jeremy Corbyn deliver on his threat of a no confidence motion on the government, which could lead to a general election.  The House of Commons recess ends on January 7th, but we could see the MPs called back earlier.  The smart money remains on the sidelines as the scenarios on how this will evolve remain plentiful.  We should start to see some positioning after the Parliament vote.

Treasuries continue to advance

US Treasury yields continue to slide as the 10-year yield fell to the lowest level since February.  The 10-year and 2-year gap widened to 19.85 basis points alleviating concerns that the Fed’s tightening process would invert the yield curve.  All eyes will be on Fed Chair Powell’s January 4th interview at the annual meeting of the American Economic Association in Atlanta.  The market does not agree with the Fed’s dot plot and seeks clarity on quantitative tightening, so every event Powell attends will be closely watched for further dovish commitments.

Source: marketpulse.com

lastest Articles

Market Analysis
Gold: 50-DMA at $1924 is the level to beat for the bulls
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Fundamental reality disagrees with recent gains
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Foreign intervention in US elections weighs on mood, jobless claims, politics eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Forecast: Overbought, so what? Stimulus hopes blind investors' eyes (for now)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Markets cheer hopes of US stimulus deal, election polls in focus
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold flirts with the $1,900 level in anticipation of news on the fiscal front
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Bulls are in control and eye 1.1795
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar retreats on fresh stimulus hopes, Brexit and coronavirus news eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Time running out for Trump
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Forecast: Dead cat bounce could provide sell opportunity, euro faces three headwinds
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar dominates amid stimulus and Brexit uncertainty, ahead of US retail sales
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar finds its feet amid stalled stimulus talks, ahead of US data, EU Summit
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar’s haven demand back in vogue amid stimulus delay, vaccine trial pause
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Cautious ahead of key week
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Three factors why BTC is going to surge
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Yuan slumps on China’s policy move, coronavirus risk downs euro amid light trading
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Risk events galore
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: One more possibility around year-end for testing of 1.20 – Danske Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold looks to the upside ahead of Powell’s speech
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Cautious mood and “sell the fact” after Trump's discharge, stimulus news eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Markets hate uncertainty
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Forecast: Euro attacks strong resistance, why this could be a fakeout
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: High hopes for US fiscal stimulus boost sentiment, NFP hints eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar rises after an ugly presidential debate, US data, end-of-month flows eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD now looks to 1.1800 and above – UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
S&P 500: Three critical policy disappointments behind the correction – Morgan Stanley
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Bitcoin's mass adoption passes the point of no return
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar declines on hopes for a US fiscal deal, ahead of presidential debate
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US Elections: A decisive Democratic victory to hit the USD – Nordea
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold: Bearish pressures mounting
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar bulls take a breather amid an upbeat start to a Big week
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Let the debates begin!
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC slips into “Buy the Dip” Zone
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold: Eyes on August lows of $1863 ahead of US PMIs and round two Powell
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: US dollar’s haven demand in vogue ahead of a busy day
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold remains on track to test the August low of $1863
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Forecast: Bears now eyeing a sustained break below 1.1700 mark
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar buoyant ahead of Powell, UK PM Johnson’s COBRA meeting eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Futures: Still room for extra gains
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Forecast: Further consolidation looks likely ahead of Fed speakers
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: US dollar sags amid fiscal overhang, mounting coronavirus risks
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – No ease up for Powell
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BOE Quick Analysis: Bailey blasts sterling with specter of negative rates, why more falls are likely
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB’s De Guindos: Euro exchange rate is fundamental for inflation
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Fed drives dollar higher, gold and stocks lower, BOE, jobless claims eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold aims $1980 as focus shifts to Wednesday’s FOMC
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD to surge to 1.40 by September-2021 – UBS
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Upbeat Chinese data boosts mood, Boris' bill passes first hurdle, Gold shines
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – More stimulus on the way?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB's Lane: Euro's rise dampens inflation outlook
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: King dollar holds the rein amid cautious optimism, eyes on US CPI
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Forecast: Euro set to fall? ECB expectations may be overconfident
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Brexit in deep crisis, vaccine hopes resurface, all eyes on the ECB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Brent Oil resumes its core bear trend
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB’s Muller: A timely exit from temporary emergency measures is important
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Vaccine trial halt exacerbates risk off mood, Brexit, BOC, and US fiscal talks eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD drops further and approaches $1,900/oz
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Bitcoin Price Update: BTC bulls ready to strike back once $11,000 is cleared
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Hard-Brexit fears pound the Pound, Dollar bid on US-Sino woes
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD risks deeper pullback as 1.20 peak looks far
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Price Analysis: Downside appears more compelling while below $1946 – Confluence Detector
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar stabilizes in the NFP aftermath, Oil tumbles amid holiday-thinned trading
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead - Trump Closing the Gap
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Nonfarm Payrolls Preview: Fed’s policy shift to introduce vital noise
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold rebounds from weekly lows, turns neutral around $1945 region
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD trims losses and regains 1.1850 post-US ISM
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Fed's Williams: Policymakers seek inflation that targets 2% over time
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Bitcoin Cash Market Update: BCH fork is inevitable as Bitcoin ABC team separates from the project
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar climbs back from the abyss, ADP NFP, Fed speakers awaited
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Bring on the Jobs Report
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Jackson Hole Goes Virtual
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead - The focus remains on COVID-19, the Fed and Congress
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Gold up, dollar down amid stalled fiscal talks, vaccine hopes, ahead of jobless claims
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead- Is the economic recovery stalling?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar licking its wounds, gold gives ground, ahead of the all-important Fed decision
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – What more can the Fed do?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Bitcoin Market Update: BTC/USD hits a pause button before another bullish assault
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Price Analysis: Potential correction ahead of further gains
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: China's payback weighs on markets, boosts dollar, PMIs, coronavirus figures eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD: Technicals show bulls have the upper hand
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold: Correction in sight after reaching nine-year highs
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar licking its wounds, gold shines, US coronavirus cases eyed after Trump's U-turn
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold jumps to fresh multi-year tops, beyond $1820 level
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: EUR/USD sells the fact, Gold looking strong, Trump's coronavirus briefs make comeback
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Bitcoin Market Update: BTC fails to live up to the status of digital gold
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
S&P 500 Futures Price Analysis: Bears retain control after rejection at falling trendline resistance
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: EU leaders can’t reach an agreement on the EU rescue fund
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Focus remains on Virus Spread, Fiscal Stimulus, Rebounding data, and Earnings
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD continues to look at the 1.1495 March high
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
AUD/USD to remain resilient in the near-term
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar dominates ahead of EU Summit, updated look at the US consumer amid rising cases
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold probes multi-day lows around $1,790/oz
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Price Analysis: A test of 1.1420 appears closer
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: US dollar seizes control as risk aversion returns, a busy docket ahead
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold to stay above $1800 fueled by lower real rates
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB expected to keep rates unchanged
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Vaccine, earnings optimism downs the dollar; eyes on COVID-19 stats, BOE’s Bailey
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Bring on Earnings Season
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Crude Oil Futures: Upside looks limited
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB’s Lagarde: Economic recovery would be constrained, uncertain and fragmented
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613