something interesting

<  BACK TO Mr. Markets

Don’t Look Back in Anger

Past performance no guarantee of future achievement

We see this rider all the time on investment offers but as traders we do not apply such logic to our own methods. Every chart and most macroeconomic data is backwards looking. Being seduced by past performance is detrimental to our ability to predict future activity. Yes, predict, because that is, after all, what we do.

There is, rightly, almost universal scepticism about crystal balls and all the other paraphernalia that goes with “the gift” so what can we do to make our “science” more credible?

One of the more ludicrous notions is that the Q2 GDP data has any bearing on what is happening today. Everyone got very excited by a 0.3% improvement in U.S. economic activity three months ago. Really? This revision was due to the update of Corporate profits which makes the importance attached even more absurd.

Employment also receives a bizarre amount of attention since it is so open to revision in the U.S. and to “massage” in the U.K.

We should take more notice of sentiment indexes and producer price data. They are forward looking and can form a picture of what is happening now.

Broaden horizons; Think about what is happening. Even consider allocating a (small) part of your total portfolio into a smarter way of trading. Currency trends and movements are part of the global economy and if we can separate the wheat from the chaff it could be a rewarding experience.

Brexit; A testament to the breakdown of the politics as we know it.

It’s time for me to get my soapbox out and start pontificating!

What is the only part of modern life that hasn’t changed in the past thirty years? Over that time life has been revolutionised in a way not seen since the late 18th century. The internet has come but has continually grown and morphed into an all-encompassing almost living creature that it is becoming impossible to function without. Not since the industrial revolution has there been such an advance.

Yet over that period Politics hasn’t changed at all. Of course, MP’s email each other rather than pass notes around the chamber like schoolboys. I assume there is digital storage of Hansard now, but the fabric of Politics hasn’t changed one iota.

Now along comes Brexit which has the potential to not only change the immediate future for a whole generation but could be the catalyst for political change. As ever it is the young that will be the instrument. Even though many Millennials have spent as much time in their bedrooms playing on various games consoles they have grown up in the information age where everything is at their fingertips. With information comes opinion, with opinion comes judgement and with judgement comes change.

The young won’t put up with the nonsense that has become the norm of Parliamentary behaviour. While most accept MP’s for what they are, there is someone out there who will have an “Emperor’s new clothes moment” and will see them for what they are. Then, hopefully, the revolution will begin.

Mario Draghi; The People’s Central Banker

Bankers. The subject of derision and hatred for some time now. Personally, I believe it is an institutional thing and employees of banks have been the instrument of some poor sometimes criminal judgement by those who run them.

Be that as it may, following the financial crisis and the too big to fail nonsense, investment bankers have been singled out. Goldman Sachs has long been a frontrunner in the “all that is bad about banking” sweepstake, so it is ironic that it is one of their past alumni who is fast becoming the poster boy for the success of the experiment that is the Eurozone.

Bringing together nineteen diverse economies under one monetary policy when he can only influence part of the outcome has become the “Legend of Mario Draghi”.

In recent history, Italians have been to economic stability, what Kim Jong-un is to international diplomacy. Yet, he has managed to withstand the pressures exerted by the larger nations who until recently were bleating about inflation and now showing concerns about currency strength.

It is entirely correct that if you are only going to be allowed to control the monetary side of the economy with the fiscal left to the individual nations a light touch is necessary. It was the weak currency that has helped Greece to improve from its descent towards a third world economy yet now it is the strong currency that is driving inflation lower in Germany.

So, hats off to Super Mario and God help the Eurozone when his term ends in October 2019.

Past performance no guarantee of future achievement

We see this rider all the time on investment offers but as traders we do not apply such logic to our own methods. Every chart and most macroeconomic data is backwards looking. Being seduced by past performance is detrimental to our ability to predict future activity. Yes, predict, because that is, after all, what we do.

There is, rightly, almost universal scepticism about crystal balls and all the other paraphernalia that goes with “the gift” so what can we do to make our “science” more credible?

One of the more ludicrous notions is that the Q2 GDP data has any bearing on what is happening today. Everyone got very excited by a 0.3% improvement in U.S. economic activity three months ago. Really? This revision was due to the update of Corporate profits which makes the importance attached even more absurd.

Employment also receives a bizarre amount of attention since it is so open to revision in the U.S. and to “massage” in the U.K.

We should take more notice of sentiment indexes and producer price data. They are forward looking and can form a picture of what is happening now.

Broaden horizons; Think about what is happening. Even consider allocating a (small) part of your total portfolio into a smarter way of trading. Currency trends and movements are part of the global economy and if we can separate the wheat from the chaff it could be a rewarding experience.

Brexit; A testament to the breakdown of the politics as we know it.

It’s time for me to get my soapbox out and start pontificating!

What is the only part of modern life that hasn’t changed in the past thirty years? Over that time life has been revolutionised in a way not seen since the late 18th century. The internet has come but has continually grown and morphed into an all-encompassing almost living creature that it is becoming impossible to function without. Not since the industrial revolution has there been such an advance.

Yet over that period Politics hasn’t changed at all. Of course, MP’s email each other rather than pass notes around the chamber like schoolboys. I assume there is digital storage of Hansard now, but the fabric of Politics hasn’t changed one iota.

Now along comes Brexit which has the potential to not only change the immediate future for a whole generation but could be the catalyst for political change. As ever it is the young that will be the instrument. Even though many Millennials have spent as much time in their bedrooms playing on various games consoles they have grown up in the information age where everything is at their fingertips. With information comes opinion, with opinion comes judgement and with judgement comes change.

The young won’t put up with the nonsense that has become the norm of Parliamentary behaviour. While most accept MP’s for what they are, there is someone out there who will have an “Emperor’s new clothes moment” and will see them for what they are. Then, hopefully, the revolution will begin.

Mario Draghi; The People’s Central Banker

Bankers. The subject of derision and hatred for some time now. Personally, I believe it is an institutional thing and employees of banks have been the instrument of some poor sometimes criminal judgement by those who run them.

Be that as it may, following the financial crisis and the too big to fail nonsense, investment bankers have been singled out. Goldman Sachs has long been a frontrunner in the “all that is bad about banking” sweepstake, so it is ironic that it is one of their past alumni who is fast becoming the poster boy for the success of the experiment that is the Eurozone.

Bringing together nineteen diverse economies under one monetary policy when he can only influence part of the outcome has become the “Legend of Mario Draghi”.

In recent history, Italians have been to economic stability, what Kim Jong-un is to international diplomacy. Yet, he has managed to withstand the pressures exerted by the larger nations who until recently were bleating about inflation and now showing concerns about currency strength.

It is entirely correct that if you are only going to be allowed to control the monetary side of the economy with the fiscal left to the individual nations a light touch is necessary. It was the weak currency that has helped Greece to improve from its descent towards a third world economy yet now it is the strong currency that is driving inflation lower in Germany.

So, hats off to Super Mario and God help the Eurozone when his term ends in October 2019.

lastest Articles

PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Weekly Results (16-20.07.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead: Dollar Rally Ends With Trump Monetary Policy and Currency War Comments
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (20.07.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
GBP futures: probable consolidation near term
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Canada: Inflation Hit Six-Year-Plus High
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
JPY: Upcoming BoJ meeting likely to have negative impact - Nomura
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Quote: The Trading Genius Was Previously an Idiot - PIG INSIDER
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
The Times: UK to warn public every week over 'no-deal Brexit' - Reuters
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
CNY: Taking a beating - Rabobank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (19.07.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: stays downside corrective after failing at the 200-day SMA near 132.00.
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/CAD – Canadian dollar slides on soft employment report
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold tumbles, poised for lowest close in more than year as dollar, rates rise
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Quote: Markets Can Remain Irrational - PIG INSIDER
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
AUD/USD hammered down mid-0.7300s, closer to over 2-week lows
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FTSE 100 holds steady as traders focus on retail sales data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar higher after Powell deflects trade concerns
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Quote: Never Depend on Single Income -Warren Buffett
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
China’s ForeignMin: Trade war is the biggest 'confidence killer' for the global economy
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Sterling extends its fall as Brexit worries mount
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (17.07.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Dollar index sputters ahead of Fed’s Powell testimony
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
UK: Latest data points to a rebound in Q2 GDP after a lacklustre Q1 - RBS
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Mr. Markets
OK, so what do you Really Think?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/8b0332acc130dc650331fd558f82add2
Market Analysis
EUR/USD recedes from tops near 1.1750 ahead of Powell
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Quote: In your reciepe for success - ED SEYKOTA
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Opinion: Buying gold now would only weigh down your investment portfolio
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar slips ahead of Fed testimony
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (16.07.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Canada: Housing sales figures to be little changed - TDS
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Cable quietly gaining ground currently supported at 1.3250 level
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
The stock market is about to set a bearish record
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
European stocks slip on China growth concerns, but Deutsche Bank leaps
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Quote: Any Trader Can Take Risk - Pig Insider
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold clings to modest recovery gains, above $1240 level
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar gains fade on China-EU summit, U.S. data eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Weekly Results (9-13.07.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
FOREX Week Ahead:Trade War and Trump European Trip Boost US Dollar
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (13.07.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
GBP/USD rebounds from near 2-week lows, back closer to 1.3200 handle
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
QE drove JPY from 2012 to 2016 - AmpGFX
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
NZD/USD scope to test 0.6675 – UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
U.S. stock futures on pause with big bank earnings in focus
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Quote:Turnarounds seldom turn - Warren Buffett
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Euro falls as rate expectations, trade tensions boost dollar
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets 13.07.2018: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold eyes $1250 as USD weakness fuels recovery
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (12.07.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Sterling edges up ahead of UK Brexit blueprint
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Trump reaffirms commitment to NATO after strained emergency meeting
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold clings to modest recovery gains ahead of US CPI
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Quote: Most things will prove - Pig Insider
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
EUR futures: further downside not ruled out
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BoE Credit Conditions Survey Report: Default rates on unsecured lending rose in Q2
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (11.07.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Asian stocks slump after U.S. announces $200 billion in new tariffs on China
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/CAD – Canadian dollar dips, BoC rate decision looms
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
China Govt to state media - keep calm, don't inflame trade row with US - Reuters
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Quote: Person who never made mistake - Pig Insider
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Gold holds weaker near one-week lows, around $1250 level
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar strengthens against yen, EM rallies as trade fears wane
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX tech targets EUR/USD sidelined around 1.1730 amidst risk-off trade
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (10.07.2018)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold rebounds sharply from 1-week lows; will it sustain?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Trump Today: President says ‘up to the people’ whether Theresa May should be replaced as he praises her rival
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
DAX gains ground as trade tensions ease
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets: 10.07.2018 EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
Forex Trading Quote: It was never my thinking - Jesse Livermore
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Dow set to catch its breath after racking up 320-point rally
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Technical Analysis: The recent recovery move already seems to have run out of steam
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (09.07.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: bulls tire and daily cloud base, (1.1737), under threat
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold tries for best levels in 2 weeks after the dollar’s recent retreat
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD plummets to lows near 1.3240 as B.Johnson resigns
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD heading back towards 1.3300 amid UK political woes
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Quote: The truth - Wisdom of the Pig
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Dollar sags after soft U.S. wages data, Brexit woes weigh on pound
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREXTech Targets 09.07.2018: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Weekly Results(2-6.07.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead: Trade Uncertainty Hits Dollar’s Confidence
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (06.07.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
AUD/USD fades the NFP-led spike, returns to 0.7420 area
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY turns red near 110.50 as US Dollar slips on mixed employment data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold lower but clings to weekly gain ahead of payrolls and wage snapshot
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Sterling braces for May's crunch Brexit meeting
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
Forex Trading Quote: Success Has To Do - Ed Seykota
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
EUR/USD sticks to gains near 1.1715 ahead of US NFP
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets 26.07.2018: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (05.07.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Sterling lifted by BOE comments but Brexit meeting curbs gains
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY retreats from session highs, returns to mid-110s on weaker USD
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold tries to edge higher as dollar slips
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD eases from over 1-week high, back below mid-1.3200s after Carney
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
Forex Trading Quote: Cut Your Losses - Livermore
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
EUR/USD consolidates gains near 1.1685 ahead of US ADP, Fed minutes
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets 05.07.2018: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (04.07.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
USD/CAD – Canadian dollar quiet, investors eye FOMC minutes
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
China: Ready for trade war and currency battle – Nordea Markets
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD flirting with lows, below mid-1.1600s
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613