something interesting

<  BACK TO Market Analysis

Euro May Rise on Retail Sales as Traders Eye Key Debt Release

FXPIG_euro-may-rise_Forex

EURO FORECAST, EUROZONE ECONOMY, EUROPE RETAIL SALES – TALKING POINTS

  • Euro could rise on retail sales data for holiday-packed month
  • Investors turn to European Commission’s paper on debt rules
  • Publication could have long-lasting consequences for the bloc

ASIA-PACIFIC RECAP: CHINA PMI, STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS HIGHLIGHTS

The Australian Dollar shrugged at softer-than-expected Chinese Caixin PMI data for January and Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe’s speech in Sydney. The head of the central bank said the coronavirus is a new uncertainty but that it is too early to tell what its economic impact will be. Mr. Lowe also stressed that higher unemployment figures will bolster the case for additional rate cuts.

EURO OUTLOOK AHEAD OF RETAIL SALES DATA

The Euro may rise on retail sales figures for December if the statistics show a buoyant consumer during the holiday-packed month. The year-on-year forecast is at 2.3 percent, marginally higher than the prior 2.2 percent print while its month-on-month counterpart is expected to show a 1.1 percent contraction; the previous was 1.1 percent. However, that’s not the only economic data release that traders will be paying attention to.

Final figures for the Eurozone Markit services and composite PMI for January will also be released, though their readings may erase gains the Euro made on retail sales statistics. The outbreak of the coronavirus and subsequent selloff in equities amid concerns that it may slow economic growth could have led to supply chain managers revise down their outlook on future demand.

Fear about the coronavirus has already made a dent in market expectations for future inflation. The Euro 5Y5Y inflation swap forward – a favorite price growth gauge of the ECB – endured a four percent decline as fear about a coronavirus contagion swelled. The volatility-inducing nature of these concerns could start waning, but if it starts impacting economic data, the Euro may fall if it stokes ECB easing expectations.

EUROPEAN COMMISSION DEBT RULES: WHY THE RELEASE MATTERS

While the release may not necessary elicit of a significant amount of volatility, it no less warrants the attention of traders. Eurozone debt and fiscal rules have long been disputed by member states – like Italy in 2018 – who then attempted at pioneering fiscal exceptionalism and subsequently imperiled the Euro. With growing frustration towards the lack of fiscal autonomy, policymakers will discuss a restructuring of debt rules.

The publication by the EC will essentially be a review of economic policies that were implemented during the Eurozone debt crisis known as the Two Pack and Six Pack reforms. Policymakers are raising these issues out of concern that in the face of an economic downturn, a recovery may be comparatively more difficult with interest rates in negative territory and member states verging on violating fiscal deficit laws.

EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

While EUR/USD has broken out above the December 31 descending resistance channel (labelled as “beta”), the pair appears to be struggling to consistently trade above it. Furthermore, EUR/USD is still hovering on the cusp of support at 1.1039 which opens the door for another re-test of the November swing-low at 1.0989. It is also still possible that EUR/USD resumes its prior decline under the steep guidance of the Beta downtrend.

Source: dailyfx

EURO FORECAST, EUROZONE ECONOMY, EUROPE RETAIL SALES – TALKING POINTS

  • Euro could rise on retail sales data for holiday-packed month
  • Investors turn to European Commission’s paper on debt rules
  • Publication could have long-lasting consequences for the bloc

ASIA-PACIFIC RECAP: CHINA PMI, STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS HIGHLIGHTS

The Australian Dollar shrugged at softer-than-expected Chinese Caixin PMI data for January and Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe’s speech in Sydney. The head of the central bank said the coronavirus is a new uncertainty but that it is too early to tell what its economic impact will be. Mr. Lowe also stressed that higher unemployment figures will bolster the case for additional rate cuts.

EURO OUTLOOK AHEAD OF RETAIL SALES DATA

The Euro may rise on retail sales figures for December if the statistics show a buoyant consumer during the holiday-packed month. The year-on-year forecast is at 2.3 percent, marginally higher than the prior 2.2 percent print while its month-on-month counterpart is expected to show a 1.1 percent contraction; the previous was 1.1 percent. However, that’s not the only economic data release that traders will be paying attention to.

Final figures for the Eurozone Markit services and composite PMI for January will also be released, though their readings may erase gains the Euro made on retail sales statistics. The outbreak of the coronavirus and subsequent selloff in equities amid concerns that it may slow economic growth could have led to supply chain managers revise down their outlook on future demand.

Fear about the coronavirus has already made a dent in market expectations for future inflation. The Euro 5Y5Y inflation swap forward – a favorite price growth gauge of the ECB – endured a four percent decline as fear about a coronavirus contagion swelled. The volatility-inducing nature of these concerns could start waning, but if it starts impacting economic data, the Euro may fall if it stokes ECB easing expectations.

EUROPEAN COMMISSION DEBT RULES: WHY THE RELEASE MATTERS

While the release may not necessary elicit of a significant amount of volatility, it no less warrants the attention of traders. Eurozone debt and fiscal rules have long been disputed by member states – like Italy in 2018 – who then attempted at pioneering fiscal exceptionalism and subsequently imperiled the Euro. With growing frustration towards the lack of fiscal autonomy, policymakers will discuss a restructuring of debt rules.

The publication by the EC will essentially be a review of economic policies that were implemented during the Eurozone debt crisis known as the Two Pack and Six Pack reforms. Policymakers are raising these issues out of concern that in the face of an economic downturn, a recovery may be comparatively more difficult with interest rates in negative territory and member states verging on violating fiscal deficit laws.

EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

While EUR/USD has broken out above the December 31 descending resistance channel (labelled as “beta”), the pair appears to be struggling to consistently trade above it. Furthermore, EUR/USD is still hovering on the cusp of support at 1.1039 which opens the door for another re-test of the November swing-low at 1.0989. It is also still possible that EUR/USD resumes its prior decline under the steep guidance of the Beta downtrend.

Source: dailyfx

lastest Articles

Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Turning a Corner on COVID-19
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Oil: Energy sector up
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD: Upsurge testing major resistance
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: EUR/USD falls toward Macron gap, Pound enjoys Javid jump, US consumer, coronavirus eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Australian dollar: Under the weight of the world – Westpac
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US Dollar May Rise on Haven Demand as Coronavirus Fears Swell
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Price Analysis: Levels to watch after coronavirus-fueled jump – Confluence Detector
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Edges Lower as Coronavirus Worries Take Back Seat To Stock Gains
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Fed Chair Powell likely to give Congress largely positive economic update
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Coronavirus fears subside, trio of central bankers set to move USD, EUR, GBP
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD May Rise on Wuhan Virus Risk Ahead of White House Budget
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: China tries to calm coronavirus-hit markets, dollar remains strong, Bitcoin battles $10,000
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD remains capped and vulnerable to additional falls – Confluence Detector
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Virus risk uncertainty, Powell testifies to Congress, RBNZ to signal patience, and Germany’s recession fears
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Oil: Markets await the result of production cuts – Westpac
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold struggles for direction around $1,570/oz
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Oversold conditions implying a bounce
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB’s Lagarde: Low interest rate and low inflation has significantly reduced the scope to ease policy
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Aussie – the strongest as China trade optimism boosts risk further
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BOJ’s Masai: Will take steps, including those to make easy policy sustainable
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US: Trump win is not done – Standard Chartered
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Euro May Rise on Retail Sales as Traders Eye Key Debt Release
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Coronavirus dampens mood, top US Non-Farm Payrolls hints eyed, Ripple roars
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
Exclusive: FXPIG Secures Bobby Winters as its CEO
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/8b0332acc130dc650331fd558f82add2
Market Analysis
British Pound (GBP) Latest: Outlook Bleak as Brexit Slide Continues
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold slides to multi-day lows, below $1570
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Brent crude falls as China cuts refining rates on virus outbreak
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Prices Ease Back Despite China Stock Plunge On Virus Worries
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Coronavirus devastates Chinese markets, Boris pressures the pound, US data eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Virus Saga Continues, Iowa Caucuses are here, RBA to deliver dovish hold, and US NFP to see slight rebound
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Cautiously optimistic on Brexit day; Eurozone data in spotlight
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Crude Oil Prices Gain as WHO Stops Short Of Advising Travel Ban
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: diminishing bets for extra weakness – UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
JPY Futures: Extra upside lacks momentum
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Coronavirus boosts Gold, BOE coin-flip and US growth eagerly awaited
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
British Pound May Fall on BoE Rate Decision, Brexit Concerns
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB’s Rehn: Latest information on core inflation signal a rise, EUR/USD attacks 1.10
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US Dollar May Bloom on FOMC Outlook, Corporate Earnings
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Coronavirus surpasses SARS, Trump's impeachment gets interesting, Fed in focus
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Prices Steady As Virus Spread Saps Global Risk Appetite
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Calm amid China’s coronavirus storm; US data in spotlight
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB seen ‘on hold’ until end of 2021 – UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOMC: All eyes on Chair Powell’s press conference – Deutsche Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD prints YTD lows near 1.1015 post-IFO
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Coronavirus crisis accelerates and knocks down risk, focus on German IFO
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Central banks back to the fore
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Breaking: EUR/USD hits fresh highs as German Preliminary Manufacturing PMI beats estimates with 45.2
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Markets take a break from coronavirus fears, forward-looking data eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB’s Lagarde: To think that policy is on auto-pilot is ridiculous
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Higher USD/JPY is still on the cards – UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Euro May Fall as the ECB Stays Cautious Despite Economic Upturn
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Coronavirus fears spread and weigh on markets, Aussie surges, all eyes on the ECB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Euro Under Dark Clouds as Trump Threatens Auto Tariffs
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Stocks in Asia rise, mostly shrug off concerns over coronavirus
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BOE Preview: Goodbye Carney, hello rate cut? - Nordea
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
President Trump’s speech at WEF in Davos – Live
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Fed should turn to digital money to combat next recession
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD jumps to session tops, closer to mid-1.3000s on upbeat UK jobs data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Forecast: Bears now await a break below 1.1065 confluence support
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Pound pressured by Brexit plans, oil bumps on Mod-East issues, Bitcoin hungover
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB preview: It’s all about the strategy – ING
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead - BOJ, BOC, and ECB to keep rates on hold as markets focus on global PMI readings and earnings
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US: Industrial production to retreat again in December – TDS
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
European stocks aim at fresh record on China data and Wall Street’s optimism
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Breaking: GBP/USD drops below 1.3100 after UK Retail Sales drop 0.6% MoM in Dec vs. +0.7% expected
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Crude Oil Futures: deeper pullback loses traction
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD prints weekly highs above 1.1160 ahead of ECB, data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Mixed feelings about the trade deal, US retail sales eyed, cryptos consolidate
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Futures: further signs of consolidation
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Crude Oil Futures: an interim low seems in place
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Tariffs weigh on markets, pound recovers ahead of data, Bitcoin takes a breather
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Price Analysis: Focus remains on the 200-day SMA near 1.1140
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US: Focus on Fed speak and CPI today – Rabobank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Trade optimism sends USD/JPY above 110, cryptos climb, US inflation eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week ahead – It’s a trade deal!
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
The WAIT Is Over
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BOE’s Tenreyro: UK labor market is not tightening further, GBP/USD drops 20-pips
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD stays cautious near 1.1100 ahead of Payrolls
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
AUD/USD pares early gains, turns red near 0.6860
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold drops to fresh weekly lows, around $1540 level
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Sell-offs in gold, oil and Bitcoin following Mid-East calm, central bankers eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: Bulls struggling near 141.20-30 confluence support
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold hits fresh multi-month tops, around $1545 region
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Fear grips markets as US kills top Iranian commander, ISM, FOMC awaited
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD: Recovery mode intact on 1.32 after UK Final Dec Manufacturing PMI disappoints with 47.5
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
AUD/USD: Weaker around 0.7000 as USD recovers
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Bulls look to test multi-month highs near 1.1240
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
PAMMs Yearly Update
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/CAD struggles to shakes off bearish pressure, trades around 1.3070
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: EUR/USD tops 1.12, AUD/USD nears 0.70, as end-of-year dollar pressure set to extend
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead: Market Rally Still Going Low Holiday Volumes Awaiting Start of 2020
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
Merry Christmas
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Canada: Weakness in consumer spending continues – RBC
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Gold outshines amid trade deal woes in Christmas Eve markets
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Bounce still capped below 1.1100 ahead of US data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Pre-Chirstmas quiet trading seeps in alongside US-China trade optimism, US data eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Asian stocks: Political pessimism weighs over US-China trade progress
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead: Market in Holiday Mode Despite Impeachment and Brexit
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
Christmas and New Year Trading Schedule
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD: Supported here?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613