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EUR at two-month lows

FOREX_Euro-pinned-at-two-month-lows_FXPIG

The euro fell to a two-month low on Tuesday as concerns that rising U.S. Treasury yields would push the currency to break below a range it has been stuck within most of this year, prompting hedge funds to unwind some of their record long bets.

Some lingering worries that European Central Bank policymakers may signal a more cautious stance at a policy meeting on Thursday also pulled the single currency lower, though some market analysts said it may have fallen too far.

The single currency stabilised around $1.22 on Tuesday after having plumbed to a low of $1.2185 in the Asian session, its lowest since March 1. It has fallen 3 percent from a 2018 high above $1.2550 in mid-February.

Euro zone firms ended the first quarter with their weakest expansion since the start of 2017, according to the March Purchasing Managers’ surveys. Inflation rose less than estimated last month and investor morale in powerhouse economy Germany has tumbled.

Despite the recent softness in data — the Citi economic surprise index for the eurozone is now at its lowest since June 2012 — markets remain stubbornly bullish on the euro with overall bets still near record highs as longer-term expectations remain optimistic.

Elsewhere, the dollar held at a three-month high against a basket of currencies, after having received a boost from U.S. 10-year Treasury yields holding near the key 3 percent level.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest in more than four years at 2.998 percent on Monday before backing off that level and standing at 2.962 percent in Tuesday’s Asian trade.

The dollar’s index against a basket of six major peers rose to as high as 91.076, its strongest since Jan. 12. The dollar index was last steady on the day at 90.989.

The dollar set a two-month high of 108.87 yen and was holding near those levels.

The rise in U.S. bond yields has dented emerging market currencies and bond markets, including those in Asia.

The euro fell to a two-month low on Tuesday as concerns that rising U.S. Treasury yields would push the currency to break below a range it has been stuck within most of this year, prompting hedge funds to unwind some of their record long bets.

Some lingering worries that European Central Bank policymakers may signal a more cautious stance at a policy meeting on Thursday also pulled the single currency lower, though some market analysts said it may have fallen too far.

The single currency stabilised around $1.22 on Tuesday after having plumbed to a low of $1.2185 in the Asian session, its lowest since March 1. It has fallen 3 percent from a 2018 high above $1.2550 in mid-February.

Euro zone firms ended the first quarter with their weakest expansion since the start of 2017, according to the March Purchasing Managers’ surveys. Inflation rose less than estimated last month and investor morale in powerhouse economy Germany has tumbled.

Despite the recent softness in data — the Citi economic surprise index for the eurozone is now at its lowest since June 2012 — markets remain stubbornly bullish on the euro with overall bets still near record highs as longer-term expectations remain optimistic.

Elsewhere, the dollar held at a three-month high against a basket of currencies, after having received a boost from U.S. 10-year Treasury yields holding near the key 3 percent level.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest in more than four years at 2.998 percent on Monday before backing off that level and standing at 2.962 percent in Tuesday’s Asian trade.

The dollar’s index against a basket of six major peers rose to as high as 91.076, its strongest since Jan. 12. The dollar index was last steady on the day at 90.989.

The dollar set a two-month high of 108.87 yen and was holding near those levels.

The rise in U.S. bond yields has dented emerging market currencies and bond markets, including those in Asia.

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