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FOREX Tech Analysis

EUR/USD:  Neutral (since 14 Sep 17, 1.1890): Shift to bearish if NY closing is below 1.1660.

 No change in view,  (low has been 1.1667). We have held the same view that the weakness in EUR has ‘scope to extend further to 1.1660” since last Wednesday (27 Sep). This level appears to be within striking distance and from here, the odds for a sustained move below this level has increased. To put it another way, the current neutral phase would shift to bearish if NY closing is below 1.1660. If this condition is met, we would anticipate a move below the next major support at 1.1615 (for a move to 1.1500). Overall, only a move 1.1780 would indicate that the current weak phase has stabilized (key resistance was previously at 1.1820).

GBP/USD: Bearish (since 09 Oct 17, 1.3110): Room for further weakness towards 1.3000.

We just shifted to a bearish stance last Friday (06 Oct) and there is no change to the view. As highlighted, while the recent decline in GBP has been rather rapid, there is room for further weakness towards the next support at 1.3000 (low has been 1.3027 during NY session on Friday). On the upside, only a move back above 1.3200 (stop-loss adjusted lower from 1.3250) would indicate that a temporary low is in place. Positioning wise, the sell level suggested at 1.3170/75 was not met and it appears that we have missed the ideal selling opportunity.

AUD/USD:  Bearish (since 22 Sep 17, 0.7930): Next support is at 0.7700.

In the update last Friday (06 Sep), we highlighted the improved odds for further downside extension but were of the view that the solid support at 0.7740 would not be easy to crack. AUD managed to dip below this level but rebounded quickly after touching a low of 0.7733 during NY hours on Friday. The next support is at 0.7700 followed by 0.7650. Only a move back above 0.7835 (stop-loss adjusted from 0.7880) would indicate that the bearish phase that started about 2 weeks ago  has ended. Positioning wise, we have exited the short position from 0.7930 at average rate of 0.7805 (for a profit of 1.58%).

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 06 Sep 17, 0.7255): Shift to bearish if daily closing is below 0.7075.

NZD dropped to a low of 0.7059 last Friday but rebounded to close above the key 0.7075 level. Despite the bounce, NZD is not out of the woods just yet and a daily closing below 0.7075 would indicate that this pair has moved into a bearish phase (with an immediate target of 0.7000 followed by 0.6950). This scenario seems likely unless NZD can move and stay above 0.7155 within these couple of days.

USD/JPY: Bullish (since 28 Sep 17, 112.80): Increasing risk of a short-term top.

While USD broke above the 113.25 resistance on Friday (high of 113.43), the rapid and sharp pull-back from the high does not bode well for our current bullish view. The risk of a short-term top has increased but only a break below 112.20 (stop-loss level unchanged) would indicate that the bullish phase that started more than a week ago  has ended. This would not be surprising unless USD can move and stay above 113.10 within these 1 to 2 days.

Source: efxnews.com

EUR/USD:  Neutral (since 14 Sep 17, 1.1890): Shift to bearish if NY closing is below 1.1660.

 No change in view,  (low has been 1.1667). We have held the same view that the weakness in EUR has ‘scope to extend further to 1.1660” since last Wednesday (27 Sep). This level appears to be within striking distance and from here, the odds for a sustained move below this level has increased. To put it another way, the current neutral phase would shift to bearish if NY closing is below 1.1660. If this condition is met, we would anticipate a move below the next major support at 1.1615 (for a move to 1.1500). Overall, only a move 1.1780 would indicate that the current weak phase has stabilized (key resistance was previously at 1.1820).

GBP/USD: Bearish (since 09 Oct 17, 1.3110): Room for further weakness towards 1.3000.

We just shifted to a bearish stance last Friday (06 Oct) and there is no change to the view. As highlighted, while the recent decline in GBP has been rather rapid, there is room for further weakness towards the next support at 1.3000 (low has been 1.3027 during NY session on Friday). On the upside, only a move back above 1.3200 (stop-loss adjusted lower from 1.3250) would indicate that a temporary low is in place. Positioning wise, the sell level suggested at 1.3170/75 was not met and it appears that we have missed the ideal selling opportunity.

AUD/USD:  Bearish (since 22 Sep 17, 0.7930): Next support is at 0.7700.

In the update last Friday (06 Sep), we highlighted the improved odds for further downside extension but were of the view that the solid support at 0.7740 would not be easy to crack. AUD managed to dip below this level but rebounded quickly after touching a low of 0.7733 during NY hours on Friday. The next support is at 0.7700 followed by 0.7650. Only a move back above 0.7835 (stop-loss adjusted from 0.7880) would indicate that the bearish phase that started about 2 weeks ago  has ended. Positioning wise, we have exited the short position from 0.7930 at average rate of 0.7805 (for a profit of 1.58%).

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 06 Sep 17, 0.7255): Shift to bearish if daily closing is below 0.7075.

NZD dropped to a low of 0.7059 last Friday but rebounded to close above the key 0.7075 level. Despite the bounce, NZD is not out of the woods just yet and a daily closing below 0.7075 would indicate that this pair has moved into a bearish phase (with an immediate target of 0.7000 followed by 0.6950). This scenario seems likely unless NZD can move and stay above 0.7155 within these couple of days.

USD/JPY: Bullish (since 28 Sep 17, 112.80): Increasing risk of a short-term top.

While USD broke above the 113.25 resistance on Friday (high of 113.43), the rapid and sharp pull-back from the high does not bode well for our current bullish view. The risk of a short-term top has increased but only a break below 112.20 (stop-loss level unchanged) would indicate that the bullish phase that started more than a week ago  has ended. This would not be surprising unless USD can move and stay above 113.10 within these 1 to 2 days.

Source: efxnews.com

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