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EUR/USD: Bullish; over-extended but scope for further up-move to 1.1435.

The abrupt and strong rally appears to be running ahead of itself but there is scope for further up-move towards 1.1435. This solid resistance sits just below the weekly trend-line as well as being the high in June 2016. Above this level, there is hardly any significant resistance until the 2016 high of 1.1614. In order to maintain the current impulsive momentum, any pull-back should not move back below 1.1230. 

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 26 Jun 17, 1.2720): Immediate upward pressure to 1.2920.

While GBP moved clearly above the expected 1.2640/1.2820 consolidation range (overnight high of 1.2860), we are not convinced that it has moved into a bullish phase. However, the immediate pressure is clearly on the upside but at this stage, a sustained move above the trend-line resistance at 1.2920 seems unlikely. Overall, while the outlook is still deemed as neutral, GBP is expected to stay underpinned in the coming days with solid support at 1.2720.

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 21 Jun 17, 0.7580): In a 0.7525/0.7630 range.

AUD briefly touched a high of 0.7624 yesterday, just below the top-end of our expected 0.7525/0.7630 consolidation range. The rapid pull-back from the top and the subsequent weak daily closing reinforces our current neutral view for this pair. In other words, the neutral phase that started last Wednesday is still intact and we continue to expect AUD to trade sideways between 0.7525 and 0.7630 for now.'

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 16 Jun 17, 0.7205): In a higher range of 0.7230/0.7350.

NZD spiked to a high of 0.7344 yesterday, holding just a few pips below the top of our expected 0.7230/0.7350 consolidation range. The rapid and sharp drop from the high and the subsequent daily close near the low has resulted in an ‘ugly’ outlook for NZD. That said, it is too early to expect a sustained down-move and only a clear break below 0.7230 would indicate that a deeper pull-back has started. In the meanwhile, we continue to expect this pair to trade within a 0.7230/0.7350 range.

USD/JPY: Bullish (since 20 Jun 17, 111.65): To exit half of long position at 112.75.

We have been bullish USD since last Tuesday, 20 Jun (spot at 111.65). The major 112.10 resistance was finally breached as USD surged to a high of 112.46 yesterday. The outlook is still bullish but those who are long should look to exit half their position at 112.75, just below the major 112.80 resistance. A break above this level is not ruled out but this is a rather strong level and may not yield so easily (next resistance is at 113.15). 

Source: efxnews.com

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