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Forex Tech Targets

Forex-tech-targets_05-01-2018_FXPIG

EUR/USD: Bullish (since 02 Jan 18, 1.2005): Shift back to neutral if below 1.1970.

The relatively large drop in EUR yesterday that hit a low of 1.1999 was unexpected. The failure to break above the major 1.2100 resistance does not bode well for the current bullish view (see update from yesterday, 03 Jan). However, only a break of 1.1970 would indicate that EUR has made an interim top. In the meanwhile, EUR has to move and stay above 1.2050 within these 1 to 2 days or the risk of a move below 1.1970 would increase quickly.

GBP/USD: Shift from bullish to NEUTRAL: In a 1.3400/1.3600 range.

The call for a move higher towards 1.3660 yesterday was wrong as GBP plunged after touching a high of 1.3614 and took out the ‘stoploss’ level at 1.3500 (low of 1.3495). The rapid and outsized drop resulted in a bearish ‘outside day’. While the immediate bias is tilted to the downside, we are not convinced that the current price action is the start of a bearish phase. We prefer to hold a neutral stance for now and expect GBP to trade sideways to slightly lower in the coming days, likely holding within a broad 1.3400/1.3600 range.

AUD/USD:  Bullish (since 15 Dec 17, 0.7665): Rally is overbought but extension to 0.7900 not ruled out.

There is not much to add as AUD traded sideways yesterday before closing relatively unchanged. As highlighted in recent updates, while the current rally is overbought, further extension towards 0.7900 is not ruled out. That said, 0.7850 is a rather strong shorter-term resistance and may continue to thwart the current AUD strength in the next few days. On the downside, only a break below 0.7760 (‘stop-loss’ level) would indicate that the bullish phase has ended.

NZD/USD: Bullish (since 14 Dec 0.7015): Odds for further extension to 0.7170 not high.

NZD traded mostly sideways for the past few trading days and the consolidation has resulted in further loss in upward momentum. While the current outlook is still deemed as bullish, we continue to see low odds for the current up-move to extend towards the next major level at 0.7170. However, only a break of the ‘stop-loss’ at 0.7030  would indicate that a short-term top is in place.

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 30 Nov 17, 112.00): Shift to bearish if NY closing is below 112.00. No change in view.

We indicated yesterday (02 Jan, spot at 112.70) that downward momentum is beginning to pick up and the immediate bias is for a probe lower towards the bottom of the expected 112.00/113.50 consolidation range. USD hit a low of 112.04 before rebounding. However, downward momentum has improved further and from here, a NY close below 112.00 would suggest the start of a bearish phase (with an immediate target of 111.40 followed by 110.85). This scenario seems likely unless USD can move and stay above 112.80 within these 1 to 2 days.

Source:efxnews.com

EUR/USD: Bullish (since 02 Jan 18, 1.2005): Shift back to neutral if below 1.1970.

The relatively large drop in EUR yesterday that hit a low of 1.1999 was unexpected. The failure to break above the major 1.2100 resistance does not bode well for the current bullish view (see update from yesterday, 03 Jan). However, only a break of 1.1970 would indicate that EUR has made an interim top. In the meanwhile, EUR has to move and stay above 1.2050 within these 1 to 2 days or the risk of a move below 1.1970 would increase quickly.

GBP/USD: Shift from bullish to NEUTRAL: In a 1.3400/1.3600 range.

The call for a move higher towards 1.3660 yesterday was wrong as GBP plunged after touching a high of 1.3614 and took out the ‘stoploss’ level at 1.3500 (low of 1.3495). The rapid and outsized drop resulted in a bearish ‘outside day’. While the immediate bias is tilted to the downside, we are not convinced that the current price action is the start of a bearish phase. We prefer to hold a neutral stance for now and expect GBP to trade sideways to slightly lower in the coming days, likely holding within a broad 1.3400/1.3600 range.

AUD/USD:  Bullish (since 15 Dec 17, 0.7665): Rally is overbought but extension to 0.7900 not ruled out.

There is not much to add as AUD traded sideways yesterday before closing relatively unchanged. As highlighted in recent updates, while the current rally is overbought, further extension towards 0.7900 is not ruled out. That said, 0.7850 is a rather strong shorter-term resistance and may continue to thwart the current AUD strength in the next few days. On the downside, only a break below 0.7760 (‘stop-loss’ level) would indicate that the bullish phase has ended.

NZD/USD: Bullish (since 14 Dec 0.7015): Odds for further extension to 0.7170 not high.

NZD traded mostly sideways for the past few trading days and the consolidation has resulted in further loss in upward momentum. While the current outlook is still deemed as bullish, we continue to see low odds for the current up-move to extend towards the next major level at 0.7170. However, only a break of the ‘stop-loss’ at 0.7030  would indicate that a short-term top is in place.

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 30 Nov 17, 112.00): Shift to bearish if NY closing is below 112.00. No change in view.

We indicated yesterday (02 Jan, spot at 112.70) that downward momentum is beginning to pick up and the immediate bias is for a probe lower towards the bottom of the expected 112.00/113.50 consolidation range. USD hit a low of 112.04 before rebounding. However, downward momentum has improved further and from here, a NY close below 112.00 would suggest the start of a bearish phase (with an immediate target of 111.40 followed by 110.85). This scenario seems likely unless USD can move and stay above 112.80 within these 1 to 2 days.

Source:efxnews.com

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