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FOREX Tech Targets

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EUR/USD: Shift from bearish to NEUTRAL: Current EUR strength is viewed as a ‘correction’ and not the start of a bullish phase.

Our recent bearish expectation (01 Mar, spot at 1.2185) was proven wrong quickly as EUR easily took out the ‘stop-loss’ at 1.2320 level last Friday (high of 1.2336). Despite the strong rebound from last week’s 1.2153 low, it is too soon to expect the start of a bullish phase. The current movement in EUR is viewed as a ‘correction’ of the decline from last month’s 1.2555 top. To put it another way, the outlook for EUR is still considered as neutral now even though the immediate bias is a probe higher towards the top of the expected 1.2220/1.2430 consolidation range.

GBP/USD:  Bearish (since 01 Mar 18, 1.3765): Sharp and swift drop has room to extend to 1.3660.

There is not much to add as GBP rebounded last Friday but held well below the ‘stop-loss’ for our bearish view at 1.3890. Shorter-term downward momentum has eased somewhat and this could lead to a few days of consolidation first before the next ‘down-leg’ within the current bearish phase can be expected. Overall, only a break above 1.3890 would indicate that our expectation for the recent drop in GBP to extend to 1.3660 is wrong.

AUD/USD:  Neutral (since 15 Feb 18, 0.7925): Odds for further sustained weakness are not high. No change in view.After expecting it for more than a week (see update on 22 Feb, spot at 0.7805), AUD finally ‘tested’ the 0.7730 level yesterday. This is a rather strong support and as highlighted yesterday, only a NY closing below this level would indicate that AUD has moved into a bearish phase. Despite the sharp swing higher from yesterday’s 0.7713 low, another attempt to break 0.7730 on a sustained basis is not ruled out but based on the rapidly waning shorter-term momentum, the odds for such a move are not high. That said, AUD is expected to stay under downward pressure unless it can break above 0.7820 (no change in the key resistance level).

NZD/USD:  Neutral (since 05 Feb 18, 0.7280): Break of 0.7285 would indicate that downward pressure has eased.

NZD touched a high of 0.7278 last Friday, not far from the key resistance indicated at 0.7285. As highlighted, only a break of 0.7285 would indicate that the recent downward pressure has eased. Until then, another push lower towards the major 0.7176 support (neck-line of a potential double-top formation) is not ruled out but the odds for such a move are not high.

USD/JPY:  Neutral (since 21 Feb 18, 107.35): Shift to bearish if NY closing is below 105.20.

We highlighted last Friday (02 Mar, spot at 106.25) that the immediate pressure has shifted to the downside and expected USD to retest the strong 105.50 support. The subsequent sharp and rapid decline in USD easily took 105.50 and hit a low 105.23. Despite the break of 105.50, we are not convinced that the current movement is the start of a bearish phase. Only a NY close below 105.20 would indicate that a sustained move towards 104.50, 104.00 has started. That said, USD is expected to stay under pressure in the next few days unless it can reclaim 106.70. On a shorter-term note, 106.20 is already a strong resistance.

Source: efxdata.com

EUR/USD: Shift from bearish to NEUTRAL: Current EUR strength is viewed as a ‘correction’ and not the start of a bullish phase.

Our recent bearish expectation (01 Mar, spot at 1.2185) was proven wrong quickly as EUR easily took out the ‘stop-loss’ at 1.2320 level last Friday (high of 1.2336). Despite the strong rebound from last week’s 1.2153 low, it is too soon to expect the start of a bullish phase. The current movement in EUR is viewed as a ‘correction’ of the decline from last month’s 1.2555 top. To put it another way, the outlook for EUR is still considered as neutral now even though the immediate bias is a probe higher towards the top of the expected 1.2220/1.2430 consolidation range.

GBP/USD:  Bearish (since 01 Mar 18, 1.3765): Sharp and swift drop has room to extend to 1.3660.

There is not much to add as GBP rebounded last Friday but held well below the ‘stop-loss’ for our bearish view at 1.3890. Shorter-term downward momentum has eased somewhat and this could lead to a few days of consolidation first before the next ‘down-leg’ within the current bearish phase can be expected. Overall, only a break above 1.3890 would indicate that our expectation for the recent drop in GBP to extend to 1.3660 is wrong.

AUD/USD:  Neutral (since 15 Feb 18, 0.7925): Odds for further sustained weakness are not high. No change in view.After expecting it for more than a week (see update on 22 Feb, spot at 0.7805), AUD finally ‘tested’ the 0.7730 level yesterday. This is a rather strong support and as highlighted yesterday, only a NY closing below this level would indicate that AUD has moved into a bearish phase. Despite the sharp swing higher from yesterday’s 0.7713 low, another attempt to break 0.7730 on a sustained basis is not ruled out but based on the rapidly waning shorter-term momentum, the odds for such a move are not high. That said, AUD is expected to stay under downward pressure unless it can break above 0.7820 (no change in the key resistance level).

NZD/USD:  Neutral (since 05 Feb 18, 0.7280): Break of 0.7285 would indicate that downward pressure has eased.

NZD touched a high of 0.7278 last Friday, not far from the key resistance indicated at 0.7285. As highlighted, only a break of 0.7285 would indicate that the recent downward pressure has eased. Until then, another push lower towards the major 0.7176 support (neck-line of a potential double-top formation) is not ruled out but the odds for such a move are not high.

USD/JPY:  Neutral (since 21 Feb 18, 107.35): Shift to bearish if NY closing is below 105.20.

We highlighted last Friday (02 Mar, spot at 106.25) that the immediate pressure has shifted to the downside and expected USD to retest the strong 105.50 support. The subsequent sharp and rapid decline in USD easily took 105.50 and hit a low 105.23. Despite the break of 105.50, we are not convinced that the current movement is the start of a bearish phase. Only a NY close below 105.20 would indicate that a sustained move towards 104.50, 104.00 has started. That said, USD is expected to stay under pressure in the next few days unless it can reclaim 106.70. On a shorter-term note, 106.20 is already a strong resistance.

Source: efxdata.com

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