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Forex Tech Targets

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EUR/USD: Neutral (since 05 Jun 18, 1.1700): EUR to trade sideways to slightly higher.

There is not much to add as EUR spent another day ‘going nowhere’ yesterday and ended the day unchanged (closed at 1.1654, 0.00%). We have held the same view since Monday (02 Jul, spot at 1.1670) wherein the current movement is viewed as part of a consolidation phase and EUR is expected to trade sideways to slightly higher, likely within a 1.1570/1.1750 range. While the expected range easily contained the price action for the past few days, we detect an improvement in the underlying tone and the near-term bias is for EUR to test the top end of the consolidation range first.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 25 Jun, spot at 1.3265): GBP has moved into a consolidation phase and is expected to trade sideways.

We have held the same view since Monday (02 Jul, spot at 1.3200) wherein GBP has likely moved into a consolidation phase and is expected to trade sideways within a 1.3100/1.3280 range. After testing the bottom of the range with a low of 1.3095 during NY hours on Monday, GBP has rebounded and the improved undertone suggests that it is ready to test the top of the range at 1.3280. At this stage, a clear break above this rather strong resistance seems likely. That said, if GBP can break and hold above this level, it would be a good indication that a move towards 1.3400 has started.

AUD/USD: Shift from bearish to NEUTRAL: AUD has moved into a consolidation phase.

We warned yesterday (04 Jul, spot at 0.7380) that AUD “has to break 0.7300 soon or the risk of a short-term low would increase quickly”. AUD subsequently hit a high of 0.7425 and the break of the 0.7420 ‘stop-loss’ indicates that the bearish phase that started two weeks ago has ended. The current movement is viewed as the early stages of a consolidation phase and AUD is expected to trade sideways for now, likely within a 0.7320/0.7450 range.

NZD/USD: Bearish (since 28 Jun 18, 0.6785): Next level to focus on is at 0.6675. No change in view.

NZD eked out a fresh low of 0.6688 yesterday before staging a surprisingly strong recovery. As indicated yesterday, the next key level to focus on is at 0.6675 and the rebound ahead of this level suggests that NZD may not be ready to extend its decline just yet. However, only a break of the 0.6800 ‘stop-loss’ would indicate that the current bearish phase ended. Meanwhile, NZD could trade sideways below 0.6800 for a few days before making another ‘run’ towards 0.6675.

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 21 Feb 18, 107.35): USD to stay supported but any strength is unlikely to be sustained. No change in view.We have held the same view since Monday (02 Jul, spot at 110.75) wherein we expect “USD to stay supported but any strength is unlikely to be sustained”. USD subsequently moved above 111.00 but failed to maintain a foothold above this resistance (high of 111.06 on Monday and 111.13 yesterday). The odds for further USD strength have diminished considerably but only a break of the 110.10 ‘key support’ would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased.

Source: efxdata.com

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 05 Jun 18, 1.1700): EUR to trade sideways to slightly higher.

There is not much to add as EUR spent another day ‘going nowhere’ yesterday and ended the day unchanged (closed at 1.1654, 0.00%). We have held the same view since Monday (02 Jul, spot at 1.1670) wherein the current movement is viewed as part of a consolidation phase and EUR is expected to trade sideways to slightly higher, likely within a 1.1570/1.1750 range. While the expected range easily contained the price action for the past few days, we detect an improvement in the underlying tone and the near-term bias is for EUR to test the top end of the consolidation range first.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 25 Jun, spot at 1.3265): GBP has moved into a consolidation phase and is expected to trade sideways.

We have held the same view since Monday (02 Jul, spot at 1.3200) wherein GBP has likely moved into a consolidation phase and is expected to trade sideways within a 1.3100/1.3280 range. After testing the bottom of the range with a low of 1.3095 during NY hours on Monday, GBP has rebounded and the improved undertone suggests that it is ready to test the top of the range at 1.3280. At this stage, a clear break above this rather strong resistance seems likely. That said, if GBP can break and hold above this level, it would be a good indication that a move towards 1.3400 has started.

AUD/USD: Shift from bearish to NEUTRAL: AUD has moved into a consolidation phase.

We warned yesterday (04 Jul, spot at 0.7380) that AUD “has to break 0.7300 soon or the risk of a short-term low would increase quickly”. AUD subsequently hit a high of 0.7425 and the break of the 0.7420 ‘stop-loss’ indicates that the bearish phase that started two weeks ago has ended. The current movement is viewed as the early stages of a consolidation phase and AUD is expected to trade sideways for now, likely within a 0.7320/0.7450 range.

NZD/USD: Bearish (since 28 Jun 18, 0.6785): Next level to focus on is at 0.6675. No change in view.

NZD eked out a fresh low of 0.6688 yesterday before staging a surprisingly strong recovery. As indicated yesterday, the next key level to focus on is at 0.6675 and the rebound ahead of this level suggests that NZD may not be ready to extend its decline just yet. However, only a break of the 0.6800 ‘stop-loss’ would indicate that the current bearish phase ended. Meanwhile, NZD could trade sideways below 0.6800 for a few days before making another ‘run’ towards 0.6675.

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 21 Feb 18, 107.35): USD to stay supported but any strength is unlikely to be sustained. No change in view.We have held the same view since Monday (02 Jul, spot at 110.75) wherein we expect “USD to stay supported but any strength is unlikely to be sustained”. USD subsequently moved above 111.00 but failed to maintain a foothold above this resistance (high of 111.06 on Monday and 111.13 yesterday). The odds for further USD strength have diminished considerably but only a break of the 110.10 ‘key support’ would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased.

Source: efxdata.com

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