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Forex Tech Targets

FOREX_Tech-analysis-daily_06-03-3018_FXPIG

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 05 Mar 18, 1.2335): Current EUR strength is viewed as a ‘correction’ and not the start of a bullish phase.

We just turned neutral on EUR yesterday (05 Mar, spot at 1.2335) and there is no change to the view. The strong rebound from last week’s 1.2153 low is deemed as a ‘correction’ and not the start of a bullish phase. That said, the immediate bias is for a probe higher towards the top of the expected 1.2220/1.2430 consolidation range.

GBP/USD: Bearish (since 01 Mar 18, 1.3765): Diminished odds for further GBP weakness.

GBP hit a high of 1.3877 yesterday before closing on a surprisingly strong note. While the ‘stop-loss’ for our bearish view is still intact at 1.3890, the odds for further weakness have diminished. In order to revive the current flagging downward momentum, GBP has to move and stay below 1.3770 within these few days or the risk of a short-term low would increase quickly.

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 15 Feb 18, 0.7925): Odds for further sustained weakness are not high.

AUD dipped to a low of 0.7726 yesterday but rebounded quickly and closed largely unchanged for the day. As highlighted in recent updates, another attempt to break 0.7730 on a ‘sustained basis’ is not ruled out but based on the rapidly waning momentum, the odds for such a move are not high. However, only a break above the key resistance at 0.7820 (level unchanged) would indicate that the current mild downward pressure has eased.

NZD/USD:  Neutral (since 05 Feb 18, 0.7280): Break of 0.7285 would indicate that downward pressure has eased. No change in view.NZD touched a high of 0.7278 last Friday, not far from the key resistance indicated at 0.7285. As highlighted, only a break of 0.7285 would indicate that the recent downward pressure has eased. Until then, another push lower towards the major 0.7176 support (neck-line of a potential double-top formation) is not ruled out but the odds for such a move are not high.

USD/JPY: Neutral. Prospect for JPY to enter a bearish phase has diminished.

We highlighted yesterday (05 Mar, spot at 105.50) that despite the break of the strong 105.50 support (low of 105.23 last Friday), we were not convinced that the price action is the start of a bearish phase. We held the view that only a NY closing below 105.20 would indicate that a sustained move towards 104.50, 104.00 has started. All that said, the subsequent strong and swift recovery during NY hours came as a surprise as USD hit an overnight high of 106.23. From here, the prospect for a shift to a bearish phase has diminished considerably but remains intact unless USD can reclaim the strong 106.70 resistance. A break of 106.70 would suggest that last Friday’s 105.23 low is a short-term bottom and USD could recover further towards 107.5

Source:efxdata.com

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 05 Mar 18, 1.2335): Current EUR strength is viewed as a ‘correction’ and not the start of a bullish phase.

We just turned neutral on EUR yesterday (05 Mar, spot at 1.2335) and there is no change to the view. The strong rebound from last week’s 1.2153 low is deemed as a ‘correction’ and not the start of a bullish phase. That said, the immediate bias is for a probe higher towards the top of the expected 1.2220/1.2430 consolidation range.

GBP/USD: Bearish (since 01 Mar 18, 1.3765): Diminished odds for further GBP weakness.

GBP hit a high of 1.3877 yesterday before closing on a surprisingly strong note. While the ‘stop-loss’ for our bearish view is still intact at 1.3890, the odds for further weakness have diminished. In order to revive the current flagging downward momentum, GBP has to move and stay below 1.3770 within these few days or the risk of a short-term low would increase quickly.

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 15 Feb 18, 0.7925): Odds for further sustained weakness are not high.

AUD dipped to a low of 0.7726 yesterday but rebounded quickly and closed largely unchanged for the day. As highlighted in recent updates, another attempt to break 0.7730 on a ‘sustained basis’ is not ruled out but based on the rapidly waning momentum, the odds for such a move are not high. However, only a break above the key resistance at 0.7820 (level unchanged) would indicate that the current mild downward pressure has eased.

NZD/USD:  Neutral (since 05 Feb 18, 0.7280): Break of 0.7285 would indicate that downward pressure has eased. No change in view.NZD touched a high of 0.7278 last Friday, not far from the key resistance indicated at 0.7285. As highlighted, only a break of 0.7285 would indicate that the recent downward pressure has eased. Until then, another push lower towards the major 0.7176 support (neck-line of a potential double-top formation) is not ruled out but the odds for such a move are not high.

USD/JPY: Neutral. Prospect for JPY to enter a bearish phase has diminished.

We highlighted yesterday (05 Mar, spot at 105.50) that despite the break of the strong 105.50 support (low of 105.23 last Friday), we were not convinced that the price action is the start of a bearish phase. We held the view that only a NY closing below 105.20 would indicate that a sustained move towards 104.50, 104.00 has started. All that said, the subsequent strong and swift recovery during NY hours came as a surprise as USD hit an overnight high of 106.23. From here, the prospect for a shift to a bearish phase has diminished considerably but remains intact unless USD can reclaim the strong 106.70 resistance. A break of 106.70 would suggest that last Friday’s 105.23 low is a short-term bottom and USD could recover further towards 107.5

Source:efxdata.com

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