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EUR/USD: Neutral (since 05 Mar 18, 1.2335): EUR strength has room to extend further towards 1.2500.

When we turned neutral two days ago (05 Mar, spot at 1.2335), we viewed EUR’s strength as a ‘correction’ but were of the view that the immediate bias is for a ‘probe’ higher towards the top of the expected 1.2220/1.2430 consolidation range. EUR touched an overnight high of 1.2420 and ended the day on a solid note. The undertone has improved considerably and the current EUR strength has room to extend further towards 1.2500. This level is expected to offer solid resistance. At this stage, the odds for a move above last month’s 1.2555 peaks are deemed as low. Overall, after the strong advance yesterday, we expect EUR to stay underpinned (at least for the next several days) and only a move back below the key support at 1.2300 would indicate that the immediate upward pressure has eased (minor support is at 1.2350)

GBP/USD: Shift from bearish to NEUTRAL: Recovery has room to extend higher.

While we highlighted the diminished odds for further GBP weakness yesterday, the strong surge higher that easily took out the ‘stop-loss’ for our bearish view at 1.3890 came as a surprise (high has been 1.3929). GBP has likely made a temporary low at 1.3712 last week and the current recovery has room to extend higher. That said, there are several rather strong resistance levels at 1.3990, 1.4030 and 1.4070. Despite the current positive undertone, we expect GBP to struggle to move clearly above these strong resistance levels. On the downside, only a move back below 1.3800 would indicate that current mild upward pressure has eased.

AUD/USD:  Neutral (since 15 Feb 18, 0.7925): AUD has likely moved into a consolidation phase.

We have been highlighting the diminished odds for further AUD weakness since last Friday (02 Mar, spot at 0.7760) and the break of 0.7820 yesterday (high of 0.7842) confirms that the recent mild downward pressure has eased. However, there is no change to the neutral outlook but AUD has likely moved into a consolidation phase and is expected to trade sideways from here, likely within a 0.7715/7880 range.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 05 Feb 18, 0.7280): Rebound has scope to extend higher towards 0.7350.

NZD finally took out the strong 0.7285 resistance yesterday as it surged to an overnight high of 0.7311. As highlighted in recent updates, a break of 0.7285 would indicate that the recent downward pressure has eased. From here, the undertone has turned positive and the current rebound has scope to extend higher towards 0.7350. At this stage, a sustained move above this level seems unlikely. On the downside, only a break of the key support at 0.7220 would indicate that the immediate upward pressure has eased.

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 21 Feb 18, 107.35): Shift to bearish if NY closing is below 105.20.

In the update yesterday (06 Mar, spot at 106.20), we highlighted that the prospect for USD to enter a bearish has diminished but remains intact unless it can reclaim the strong 106.70 resistance. USD touched a high of 106.46 during Asian hour yesterday but plummeted after NY close on the back of news of Cohn’s resignation. While the undertone has clearly weakened, it is too early to expect the start of a sustained decline. Only an NY close below 105.20 would indicate that a move towards 104.50, 104.00 has started. Overall, after the sharp drop early this morning, USD is expected to stay under pressure (at least for the next few days) unless it can move and stay above the high near 106.45 yesterday.

Source: efxdata.com

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 05 Mar 18, 1.2335): EUR strength has room to extend further towards 1.2500.

When we turned neutral two days ago (05 Mar, spot at 1.2335), we viewed EUR’s strength as a ‘correction’ but were of the view that the immediate bias is for a ‘probe’ higher towards the top of the expected 1.2220/1.2430 consolidation range. EUR touched an overnight high of 1.2420 and ended the day on a solid note. The undertone has improved considerably and the current EUR strength has room to extend further towards 1.2500. This level is expected to offer solid resistance. At this stage, the odds for a move above last month’s 1.2555 peaks are deemed as low. Overall, after the strong advance yesterday, we expect EUR to stay underpinned (at least for the next several days) and only a move back below the key support at 1.2300 would indicate that the immediate upward pressure has eased (minor support is at 1.2350)

GBP/USD: Shift from bearish to NEUTRAL: Recovery has room to extend higher.

While we highlighted the diminished odds for further GBP weakness yesterday, the strong surge higher that easily took out the ‘stop-loss’ for our bearish view at 1.3890 came as a surprise (high has been 1.3929). GBP has likely made a temporary low at 1.3712 last week and the current recovery has room to extend higher. That said, there are several rather strong resistance levels at 1.3990, 1.4030 and 1.4070. Despite the current positive undertone, we expect GBP to struggle to move clearly above these strong resistance levels. On the downside, only a move back below 1.3800 would indicate that current mild upward pressure has eased.

AUD/USD:  Neutral (since 15 Feb 18, 0.7925): AUD has likely moved into a consolidation phase.

We have been highlighting the diminished odds for further AUD weakness since last Friday (02 Mar, spot at 0.7760) and the break of 0.7820 yesterday (high of 0.7842) confirms that the recent mild downward pressure has eased. However, there is no change to the neutral outlook but AUD has likely moved into a consolidation phase and is expected to trade sideways from here, likely within a 0.7715/7880 range.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 05 Feb 18, 0.7280): Rebound has scope to extend higher towards 0.7350.

NZD finally took out the strong 0.7285 resistance yesterday as it surged to an overnight high of 0.7311. As highlighted in recent updates, a break of 0.7285 would indicate that the recent downward pressure has eased. From here, the undertone has turned positive and the current rebound has scope to extend higher towards 0.7350. At this stage, a sustained move above this level seems unlikely. On the downside, only a break of the key support at 0.7220 would indicate that the immediate upward pressure has eased.

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 21 Feb 18, 107.35): Shift to bearish if NY closing is below 105.20.

In the update yesterday (06 Mar, spot at 106.20), we highlighted that the prospect for USD to enter a bearish has diminished but remains intact unless it can reclaim the strong 106.70 resistance. USD touched a high of 106.46 during Asian hour yesterday but plummeted after NY close on the back of news of Cohn’s resignation. While the undertone has clearly weakened, it is too early to expect the start of a sustained decline. Only an NY close below 105.20 would indicate that a move towards 104.50, 104.00 has started. Overall, after the sharp drop early this morning, USD is expected to stay under pressure (at least for the next few days) unless it can move and stay above the high near 106.45 yesterday.

Source: efxdata.com

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