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FOREX Tech Targets

FOREX_Technical-analysis-for-07-09-2018_FXPIG

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, 1.1485): Still neutral but scope for rebound to extend higher. EUR closed little changed in NY and there is not much add to yesterday’s update (see below).

We have held the same view since Monday (03 Sep, spot at 1.1595) wherein “EUR could drift lower but any weakness is viewed as part of a 1.1520/1.1675 consolidation range and not the start of a sustained decline”. EUR subsequently touched a low of 1.1527 on Tuesday (04 Sep) and has since rebounded quite strongly. While we continue to hold a neutral stance, the improved underlying tone suggests that there is scope for the rebound in EUR to extend higher within the next several days. However, it is premature to expect the start of a bullish phase even though a move higher towards last month’s 1.1733 top would not be surprising. At this stage, we do not anticipate a clear break above this level. On the downside, only break of 1.1530 would indicate the current mild upward pressure has eased.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, spot at 1.2795): Still neutral; GBP expected to trade within a broad range.

GBP registered an ‘inside day’ yesterday, which is not surprising after Wednesday’s (05 Sep) outsized range. As indicated, despite the sharp bounce in GBP, we are not convinced that GBP has moved into a bullish phase. The immediate outlook is clouded and we prefer to hold a neutral stance and expect GBP to trade sideways, likely within a broad 1.2800/1.3050 range.

AUD/USD: Bearish (since 03 Sep 18, 0.7185): Still bearish but AUD has to break major support soon. There is not much to add as AUD ended largely unchanged in NY and registered an ‘inside day’ (see update from yesterday below).

We have been bearish AUD since Monday (03 Sep, spot at 0.7185) but indicated that we are mindful of the long-term 0.7145/60 support zone. AUD tested this support zone with a low of 0.7158 on Tuesday (04 Sep) and 0.7145 yesterday (05 Sep). The ‘failure’ to crack through this major support has resulted in a loss in downward momentum, especially from a short-term perspective. That said, until the ‘stop-loss’ level at 0.7260 is taken out, we are not ruling out further attempts to break the major support. However, this has to happen within these few days as a prolonged consolidation would lead to further loss in momentum and increase the risk of an interim bottom.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 20 Aug 18, 0.6625): Scope for further NZD weakness to 0.6475.

NZD touched a high of 0.6616 yesterday, just a few pips below our 0.6620 ‘key resistance’. As highlighted in recent updates, as long as this level is intact, we would continue to hold a ‘negative’ NZD view and see scope for NZD weaken towards the 0.6475 support. At this stage, the odds for a clear break of this level are not high.

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 23 Jul 18, 111.20): Still neutral, USD could continue to trade in a choppy manner.

We indicated on Wednesday (05 Sep, spot at 111.45) that “USD could advance further but August’s 112.14 peak is likely out of reach”. USD subsequently touched a high of 111.75 before plunging suddenly during overnight trade and hit a low of 110.51. The choppy price actions over the past several days have resulted in an unclear outlook and we prefer to continue to hold a neutral stance for now. Looking ahead, USD could continue to trade in a whippy manner and only a break out of last month’s 109.76/112.14 range would suggest that USD is ready for a directional move.

Source:efxdata.com

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, 1.1485): Still neutral but scope for rebound to extend higher. EUR closed little changed in NY and there is not much add to yesterday’s update (see below).

We have held the same view since Monday (03 Sep, spot at 1.1595) wherein “EUR could drift lower but any weakness is viewed as part of a 1.1520/1.1675 consolidation range and not the start of a sustained decline”. EUR subsequently touched a low of 1.1527 on Tuesday (04 Sep) and has since rebounded quite strongly. While we continue to hold a neutral stance, the improved underlying tone suggests that there is scope for the rebound in EUR to extend higher within the next several days. However, it is premature to expect the start of a bullish phase even though a move higher towards last month’s 1.1733 top would not be surprising. At this stage, we do not anticipate a clear break above this level. On the downside, only break of 1.1530 would indicate the current mild upward pressure has eased.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, spot at 1.2795): Still neutral; GBP expected to trade within a broad range.

GBP registered an ‘inside day’ yesterday, which is not surprising after Wednesday’s (05 Sep) outsized range. As indicated, despite the sharp bounce in GBP, we are not convinced that GBP has moved into a bullish phase. The immediate outlook is clouded and we prefer to hold a neutral stance and expect GBP to trade sideways, likely within a broad 1.2800/1.3050 range.

AUD/USD: Bearish (since 03 Sep 18, 0.7185): Still bearish but AUD has to break major support soon. There is not much to add as AUD ended largely unchanged in NY and registered an ‘inside day’ (see update from yesterday below).

We have been bearish AUD since Monday (03 Sep, spot at 0.7185) but indicated that we are mindful of the long-term 0.7145/60 support zone. AUD tested this support zone with a low of 0.7158 on Tuesday (04 Sep) and 0.7145 yesterday (05 Sep). The ‘failure’ to crack through this major support has resulted in a loss in downward momentum, especially from a short-term perspective. That said, until the ‘stop-loss’ level at 0.7260 is taken out, we are not ruling out further attempts to break the major support. However, this has to happen within these few days as a prolonged consolidation would lead to further loss in momentum and increase the risk of an interim bottom.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 20 Aug 18, 0.6625): Scope for further NZD weakness to 0.6475.

NZD touched a high of 0.6616 yesterday, just a few pips below our 0.6620 ‘key resistance’. As highlighted in recent updates, as long as this level is intact, we would continue to hold a ‘negative’ NZD view and see scope for NZD weaken towards the 0.6475 support. At this stage, the odds for a clear break of this level are not high.

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 23 Jul 18, 111.20): Still neutral, USD could continue to trade in a choppy manner.

We indicated on Wednesday (05 Sep, spot at 111.45) that “USD could advance further but August’s 112.14 peak is likely out of reach”. USD subsequently touched a high of 111.75 before plunging suddenly during overnight trade and hit a low of 110.51. The choppy price actions over the past several days have resulted in an unclear outlook and we prefer to continue to hold a neutral stance for now. Looking ahead, USD could continue to trade in a whippy manner and only a break out of last month’s 109.76/112.14 range would suggest that USD is ready for a directional move.

Source:efxdata.com

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