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FOREX Tech Targets

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EUR/USD: Pressure shifted back to the downside but expect strong support at 1.2220.

The recent recovery ended abruptly as EUR plunged after touching a high of 1.2446 yesterday (we had previously expected the rebound to extend to 1.2500). The sharp and swift drop took out the key support at 1.2300 with an overnight low of 1.2296. The break of the key support has shifted the pressure back to the downside but at this stage, any weakness is expected to encounter solid support at 1.2220. This level is followed by the major support at 1.2155, the low seen earlier this month. Resistance is at 1.2390 followed by the high near 1.2445. The latter level is acting as a very strong resistance now.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 07 Mar 18, 1.3895): Immediate downside bias but overall in a 1.3700/1.3900 range.

After edging higher for the past several days, the sudden and sharp swing lower yesterday came as a surprise. Upward pressure has eased as GBP took out the strong 1.3800 support (overnight low of 1.3781). While the immediate bias appears to be tilted to the downside, any weakness is viewed as part of a 1.3700/1.3900 consolidation range and not the start of a sustained down-move. Only a clear break of 1.3700 would indicate that the start of a fresh bearish phase.

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 15 Feb 18, 0.7925): AUD has likely moved into a consolidation phase.

There is not much to add as AUD traded in a choppy manner for the past few days. The outlook for AUD is deemed as neutral and we view the current movement as part of a consolidation phase. In other words, we expect AUD to continue to trade sideways for now, likely within a 0.7715/0.7880 range.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 05 Feb 18, 0.7280): Rebound has scope to extend higher towards 0.7350.

Despite the overall positive undertone, NZD has not been able to make much headway on the upside. Upward pressure is beginning to wane but as long as the key support at 0.7220 is intact, a stronger rebound to 0.7350 is not ruled out just yet. That said, this has to happen soon as a prolonged consolidation around current level would lead to a quick loss in upward pressure.

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 21 Feb 18, 107.35): Risk of a stronger recovery has increased considerably.

We highlighted two days (07 Mar, spot at 105.60) that while the undertone in USD has weakened, “only a NY close below 105.20” would indicate the start of a bearish phase. The major support was unchallenged as USD closed marginally higher at 106.20 in NY yesterday. However, at the time of writing, USD surged and took out the strong resistance levels at 106.45 and 106.70 with ease. The up-move is accompanied by strong momentum and while it is too early to expect the start of a sustained rally, the price action indicates an increasing risk of a stronger recovery. From here, we expect USD to stay underpinned (at least for the next few days) and further strength towards 107.65 would not be surprising. The next resistance is at 107.90 and a break of this level would indicate that last week’s 105.23 low is a more significant bottom than currently expected.

Source: efxdata.com

EUR/USD: Pressure shifted back to the downside but expect strong support at 1.2220.

The recent recovery ended abruptly as EUR plunged after touching a high of 1.2446 yesterday (we had previously expected the rebound to extend to 1.2500). The sharp and swift drop took out the key support at 1.2300 with an overnight low of 1.2296. The break of the key support has shifted the pressure back to the downside but at this stage, any weakness is expected to encounter solid support at 1.2220. This level is followed by the major support at 1.2155, the low seen earlier this month. Resistance is at 1.2390 followed by the high near 1.2445. The latter level is acting as a very strong resistance now.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 07 Mar 18, 1.3895): Immediate downside bias but overall in a 1.3700/1.3900 range.

After edging higher for the past several days, the sudden and sharp swing lower yesterday came as a surprise. Upward pressure has eased as GBP took out the strong 1.3800 support (overnight low of 1.3781). While the immediate bias appears to be tilted to the downside, any weakness is viewed as part of a 1.3700/1.3900 consolidation range and not the start of a sustained down-move. Only a clear break of 1.3700 would indicate that the start of a fresh bearish phase.

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 15 Feb 18, 0.7925): AUD has likely moved into a consolidation phase.

There is not much to add as AUD traded in a choppy manner for the past few days. The outlook for AUD is deemed as neutral and we view the current movement as part of a consolidation phase. In other words, we expect AUD to continue to trade sideways for now, likely within a 0.7715/0.7880 range.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 05 Feb 18, 0.7280): Rebound has scope to extend higher towards 0.7350.

Despite the overall positive undertone, NZD has not been able to make much headway on the upside. Upward pressure is beginning to wane but as long as the key support at 0.7220 is intact, a stronger rebound to 0.7350 is not ruled out just yet. That said, this has to happen soon as a prolonged consolidation around current level would lead to a quick loss in upward pressure.

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 21 Feb 18, 107.35): Risk of a stronger recovery has increased considerably.

We highlighted two days (07 Mar, spot at 105.60) that while the undertone in USD has weakened, “only a NY close below 105.20” would indicate the start of a bearish phase. The major support was unchallenged as USD closed marginally higher at 106.20 in NY yesterday. However, at the time of writing, USD surged and took out the strong resistance levels at 106.45 and 106.70 with ease. The up-move is accompanied by strong momentum and while it is too early to expect the start of a sustained rally, the price action indicates an increasing risk of a stronger recovery. From here, we expect USD to stay underpinned (at least for the next few days) and further strength towards 107.65 would not be surprising. The next resistance is at 107.90 and a break of this level would indicate that last week’s 105.23 low is a more significant bottom than currently expected.

Source: efxdata.com

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