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FOREX Tech Targets

FOREX_Tech-Targets-1005_FXPIG

EUR/USD:  Bearish (since 01 May 18, 1.2075): Still bearish but Dec 2017 low of 1.1715 could be out of reach.

In the latest update on Tuesday (08 May, spot at 1.1925), we left off with the view that EUR has to “stay below 1.1910/15 or the risk of a short-term low would increase quickly”. EUR closed below 1.1910/15 by end of Tuesday and subsequently extended its decline to hit a low of 1.1821 yesterday. The bearish phase that started about 2 weeks ago is still intact and the next level to focus on is at 1.1800. Despite severely oversold conditions, a dip below this level would not be surprising but the Dec 2017 low of 1.1715 could be out of reach this time round. Resistance is at 1.1910 but only a break of 1.1960 would indicate that the current bearish phase has ended.

AUD/USD: Bearish (02 May 18, 0.7485): Another attempt to move below 0.7400 not ruled out but odds are not high.

In the latest update on Tuesday (08 May, spot at 0.7515), we left off with the view that the risk of a short-term low has increased and added that we “prefer to wait for a break of 0.7570 before shifting from a bearish to neutral stance”. Despite our reservation, AUD subsequently dropped sharply and hit a low of 0.7413 yesterday. The sharp bounce from the low seems to indicate that AUD is searching for a short-term low but confirmation is only upon a break above 0.7550. Until then, another attempt to move below 0.7400 is not ruled out but we are not apportioning high odds for such a scenario. The next support below 0.7400 is at 0.7370.

NZD/USD: Bearish (since 02 May 18, 0.7005): NZD is expected to challenge the 0.6900 support.

In the latest update on Tuesday (08 May, spot at 0.7020), we highlighted the “increasing risk of a short-term low” and added that “in order to revive the current flagging momentum, NZD has to stay below 0.7005 within these few days. NZD closed well below 0.7005 by the end of Tuesday and extended its decline to hit an overnight low of 0.6929 earlier this morning. From here, we are expecting NZD to challenge the next support at 0.6900 and a break of this level would shift the focus to 0.6865. 

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 21 Feb 18, 107.35): Pressure shifted to the upside, a test of 110.45/50 would not surprise.

Our recent expectation for the pull-back in USD to extend lower to 108.30 was proven wrong as the ‘key resistance’ at 109.85 was taken out at the time of writing. While the immediate pressure has shifted to the upside, it is too early to expect the start of a bullish phase. That said, a test of the strong 110.45/50 resistance would not be surprising.

EUR/USD:  Bearish (since 01 May 18, 1.2075): Still bearish but Dec 2017 low of 1.1715 could be out of reach.

In the latest update on Tuesday (08 May, spot at 1.1925), we left off with the view that EUR has to “stay below 1.1910/15 or the risk of a short-term low would increase quickly”. EUR closed below 1.1910/15 by end of Tuesday and subsequently extended its decline to hit a low of 1.1821 yesterday. The bearish phase that started about 2 weeks ago is still intact and the next level to focus on is at 1.1800. Despite severely oversold conditions, a dip below this level would not be surprising but the Dec 2017 low of 1.1715 could be out of reach this time round. Resistance is at 1.1910 but only a break of 1.1960 would indicate that the current bearish phase has ended.

AUD/USD: Bearish (02 May 18, 0.7485): Another attempt to move below 0.7400 not ruled out but odds are not high.

In the latest update on Tuesday (08 May, spot at 0.7515), we left off with the view that the risk of a short-term low has increased and added that we “prefer to wait for a break of 0.7570 before shifting from a bearish to neutral stance”. Despite our reservation, AUD subsequently dropped sharply and hit a low of 0.7413 yesterday. The sharp bounce from the low seems to indicate that AUD is searching for a short-term low but confirmation is only upon a break above 0.7550. Until then, another attempt to move below 0.7400 is not ruled out but we are not apportioning high odds for such a scenario. The next support below 0.7400 is at 0.7370.

NZD/USD: Bearish (since 02 May 18, 0.7005): NZD is expected to challenge the 0.6900 support.

In the latest update on Tuesday (08 May, spot at 0.7020), we highlighted the “increasing risk of a short-term low” and added that “in order to revive the current flagging momentum, NZD has to stay below 0.7005 within these few days. NZD closed well below 0.7005 by the end of Tuesday and extended its decline to hit an overnight low of 0.6929 earlier this morning. From here, we are expecting NZD to challenge the next support at 0.6900 and a break of this level would shift the focus to 0.6865. 

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 21 Feb 18, 107.35): Pressure shifted to the upside, a test of 110.45/50 would not surprise.

Our recent expectation for the pull-back in USD to extend lower to 108.30 was proven wrong as the ‘key resistance’ at 109.85 was taken out at the time of writing. While the immediate pressure has shifted to the upside, it is too early to expect the start of a bullish phase. That said, a test of the strong 110.45/50 resistance would not be surprising.

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