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EUR/USD: Neutral (since 09 Jan 18, 1.1965): Improving odds for further EUR strength (as long as above 1.1940).

While we highlighted in recent updates that any weakness in EUR is viewed as part of a broader 1.1870/1.2050 consolidation range, the sharp and strong rally yesterday came as a surprise. The ‘hawkish’ ECB minutes sent EUR soaring above 1.2050 and the short-term pressure has shifted quickly to the upside. That said, it is unlikely EUR has reentered a bullish phase and only a NY close above 1.2100 would indicate that a move towards 1.2150, 1.2200 has started. The prospect for such a scenario appears to be quite low at this stage but would improve further as long as the key short-term support at 1.1940 is not taken out (1.1970 is already quite a strong level).

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 04 Jan 18, 1.3510): A retest of 1.3615 seems likely.

After touching a low of 1.3458 yesterday, GBP surged strongly. The recent mild downward pressure has eased and while the current outlook is still deemed as neutral, a retest of last week’s 1.3615 top seems likely. A NY close above this level would greatly improve the prospect for a move beyond last year’s 1.3660 high. Overall, this pair is expected to stay underpinned in the coming days with 1.3450 acting as a key short-term support.

AUD/USD: Bullish (since 15 Dec 17, 0.7665): Upward momentum revived, focus at 0.7950 now.

The recent faltering momentum was revived as AUD surged on strong retail sales data yesterday and has just edged above the 0.7900 ‘target’ at the time of writing (high of 0.7906). We have highlighted previously that a move towards 0.7900 is not ruled despite overbought conditions and the resurgence in upward momentum has shifted the focus to 0.7950 now. In other words, AUD has likely entered a fresh ‘up-leg’ within the current bullish phase and only a break of 0.7830 would indicate that a top is in place. That said, indicators remain overbought and in order to build on the current improved momentum, AUD should continue to march higher and not ‘dither’ around current levels for too long. 

NZD/USD:  Bullish (since 14 Dec 0.7015): Above 0.7280 shift focus to 0.7365.

The resurgence in upward momentum highlighted yesterday sent NZD roaring to a high of 0.7262. The revised ‘target’ of 0.7280 appears to be within reach and a move above this level would shift the focus to 0.7365 (there is hardly any significant resistance in between the two levels). 

USD/JPY: Bearish (since 12 Jan 18, 111.45): Immediate target of 110.85. No change in view.

The condition of “a NY close below 111.90” highlighted yesterday (10 Jan) was met as USD plunged to a low of 111.26 and closed well below 111.90. The outlook for USD has shifted to bearish and from here, the immediate target is at 110.85, the low registered in November last year. This is a rather strong support and a break of this level could open up the way for further decline towards the rising trend-line support on the weekly chart, connecting the lows of 101.15 (Nov 16) and 107.30 (Sep 2017), currently sitting near 109.90. Resistance is at 112.05 but only a break of 112.50 would indicate that our bearish expectation is wrong.

Source:efxnews.com

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 09 Jan 18, 1.1965): Improving odds for further EUR strength (as long as above 1.1940).

While we highlighted in recent updates that any weakness in EUR is viewed as part of a broader 1.1870/1.2050 consolidation range, the sharp and strong rally yesterday came as a surprise. The ‘hawkish’ ECB minutes sent EUR soaring above 1.2050 and the short-term pressure has shifted quickly to the upside. That said, it is unlikely EUR has reentered a bullish phase and only a NY close above 1.2100 would indicate that a move towards 1.2150, 1.2200 has started. The prospect for such a scenario appears to be quite low at this stage but would improve further as long as the key short-term support at 1.1940 is not taken out (1.1970 is already quite a strong level).

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 04 Jan 18, 1.3510): A retest of 1.3615 seems likely.

After touching a low of 1.3458 yesterday, GBP surged strongly. The recent mild downward pressure has eased and while the current outlook is still deemed as neutral, a retest of last week’s 1.3615 top seems likely. A NY close above this level would greatly improve the prospect for a move beyond last year’s 1.3660 high. Overall, this pair is expected to stay underpinned in the coming days with 1.3450 acting as a key short-term support.

AUD/USD: Bullish (since 15 Dec 17, 0.7665): Upward momentum revived, focus at 0.7950 now.

The recent faltering momentum was revived as AUD surged on strong retail sales data yesterday and has just edged above the 0.7900 ‘target’ at the time of writing (high of 0.7906). We have highlighted previously that a move towards 0.7900 is not ruled despite overbought conditions and the resurgence in upward momentum has shifted the focus to 0.7950 now. In other words, AUD has likely entered a fresh ‘up-leg’ within the current bullish phase and only a break of 0.7830 would indicate that a top is in place. That said, indicators remain overbought and in order to build on the current improved momentum, AUD should continue to march higher and not ‘dither’ around current levels for too long. 

NZD/USD:  Bullish (since 14 Dec 0.7015): Above 0.7280 shift focus to 0.7365.

The resurgence in upward momentum highlighted yesterday sent NZD roaring to a high of 0.7262. The revised ‘target’ of 0.7280 appears to be within reach and a move above this level would shift the focus to 0.7365 (there is hardly any significant resistance in between the two levels). 

USD/JPY: Bearish (since 12 Jan 18, 111.45): Immediate target of 110.85. No change in view.

The condition of “a NY close below 111.90” highlighted yesterday (10 Jan) was met as USD plunged to a low of 111.26 and closed well below 111.90. The outlook for USD has shifted to bearish and from here, the immediate target is at 110.85, the low registered in November last year. This is a rather strong support and a break of this level could open up the way for further decline towards the rising trend-line support on the weekly chart, connecting the lows of 101.15 (Nov 16) and 107.30 (Sep 2017), currently sitting near 109.90. Resistance is at 112.05 but only a break of 112.50 would indicate that our bearish expectation is wrong.

Source:efxnews.com

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