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FOREX Tech Targets

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 07 Aug 17, 1.1785): EUR to remain underpinned as long as above 1.1750.

There is not much to add as we continue to expect EUR to stay underpinned as long as 1.1750 is intact. However, as highlighted yesterday, upward momentum is not strong and the month-to-date high near 1.1910 is unlikely to yield so easily. On a shorter-term note, 1.1870 is already a strong resistance. Looking further ahead, a break back below 1.1750 would indicate a retest of last week’s low near 1.1685/90. Overall, this pair does not appear to be going anywhere far, anytime soon (neutral phase that started last Monday may last for a while more).   

GBP/UDF: Bearish (since 07 Aug 17, 1.3045): Still bearish but odds for extension to 1.2900 are not high. No change in view, see update from yesterday below. 

As indicated late last week, while the bearish phase that started last Monday (07 Aug, spot at 1.3045) is still intact, patchy downward momentum suggests that the odds for further extension to 1.2900 are not high. The short-term rebound last Friday reinforces our view even though GBP has to move clearly above 1.3060  to indicate that the bearish phase has ended. In the meanwhile, another push lower to 1.2900 is not ruled out just yet. 

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 27 Jul 27, 0.7995): AUD to trade sideways between 0.7830 and 0.7980.

There is not much to add and we continue to expect AUD to trade sideways between 0.7830 and 0.7980 for now. While the undertone is on the soft side, lackluster momentum suggests that a clear break below 0.7830 is unlikely. That said, a breach of this level would greatly increase the odds for a move below the strong rising trend-line support (presently sitting at 0.7770). In the meanwhile, we view the current pull-back from the recent high of 0.8066 as a ‘corrective pull-back’ (which has room to extend lower but unlikely to be sustained).

NZD/USD: Bearish (since 09 Aug 17, 0.7330): Odds for further NZD weakness have diminished. No change in view, see update from yesterday below. Instead of extending its decline, NZD rebounded strongly and closed on a positive note last Friday. While downward momentum has clearly been dented, the bearish phase that started in the middle of last week is deemed as intact until 0.7350 is taken out. Until then, anther push lower to the revised target at 0.7205 is not ruled out but the odds for further NZD weakness have diminished.

USD/JPY: Shift from bearish to NEUTRAL:  In a 109.20/111.05 range.

The stop-loss for our bearish view at 111.10 was just breached at the time of writing. The rapid and robust rebound after the breach of the major 108.80 support late last week was unexpected (low of 108.73 on 11 Aug). The outlook for this pair is deemed as neutral and USD is expected to trade within a broad 109.20/111.05 range for now. On a shorter-term note, solid support can be found at 109.45 while 110.50 is a strong resistance. Positioning wise, those who sold at 110.80 would have incurred a loss of -0.27%.

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 07 Aug 17, 1.1785): EUR to remain underpinned as long as above 1.1750.

There is not much to add as we continue to expect EUR to stay underpinned as long as 1.1750 is intact. However, as highlighted yesterday, upward momentum is not strong and the month-to-date high near 1.1910 is unlikely to yield so easily. On a shorter-term note, 1.1870 is already a strong resistance. Looking further ahead, a break back below 1.1750 would indicate a retest of last week’s low near 1.1685/90. Overall, this pair does not appear to be going anywhere far, anytime soon (neutral phase that started last Monday may last for a while more).   

GBP/UDF: Bearish (since 07 Aug 17, 1.3045): Still bearish but odds for extension to 1.2900 are not high. No change in view, see update from yesterday below. 

As indicated late last week, while the bearish phase that started last Monday (07 Aug, spot at 1.3045) is still intact, patchy downward momentum suggests that the odds for further extension to 1.2900 are not high. The short-term rebound last Friday reinforces our view even though GBP has to move clearly above 1.3060  to indicate that the bearish phase has ended. In the meanwhile, another push lower to 1.2900 is not ruled out just yet. 

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 27 Jul 27, 0.7995): AUD to trade sideways between 0.7830 and 0.7980.

There is not much to add and we continue to expect AUD to trade sideways between 0.7830 and 0.7980 for now. While the undertone is on the soft side, lackluster momentum suggests that a clear break below 0.7830 is unlikely. That said, a breach of this level would greatly increase the odds for a move below the strong rising trend-line support (presently sitting at 0.7770). In the meanwhile, we view the current pull-back from the recent high of 0.8066 as a ‘corrective pull-back’ (which has room to extend lower but unlikely to be sustained).

NZD/USD: Bearish (since 09 Aug 17, 0.7330): Odds for further NZD weakness have diminished. No change in view, see update from yesterday below. Instead of extending its decline, NZD rebounded strongly and closed on a positive note last Friday. While downward momentum has clearly been dented, the bearish phase that started in the middle of last week is deemed as intact until 0.7350 is taken out. Until then, anther push lower to the revised target at 0.7205 is not ruled out but the odds for further NZD weakness have diminished.

USD/JPY: Shift from bearish to NEUTRAL:  In a 109.20/111.05 range.

The stop-loss for our bearish view at 111.10 was just breached at the time of writing. The rapid and robust rebound after the breach of the major 108.80 support late last week was unexpected (low of 108.73 on 11 Aug). The outlook for this pair is deemed as neutral and USD is expected to trade within a broad 109.20/111.05 range for now. On a shorter-term note, solid support can be found at 109.45 while 110.50 is a strong resistance. Positioning wise, those who sold at 110.80 would have incurred a loss of -0.27%.

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