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FOREX Tech Targets

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EUR/USD: Neutral (since 05 Mar 18, 1.2335): Short-term strength has scope to extend to 1.2425.

We highlighted yesterday that “while upward momentum is still not as strong as preferred, the current short-term strength has scope to extend further to the next resistance at 1.2425”. There is no change to the view as EUR subsequently hit a high of 1.2413 before easing off. As long as the ‘key support’ at 1.2310 is intact, we continue to see chance for another push higher towards 1.2425. As noted previously, this is a rather critical resistance as a clear break of this level would increase the odds for a move beyond last month’s peak at 1.2475. In view of the current lackluster momentum, we feel that it is premature to anticipate such a move. All that said, in order to maintain the current mild upward pressure, EUR should move higher quickly as a prolonged consolidation at these levels would lead to a rapid loss in momentum. 

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 07 Mar 18, 1.3895): Still scope for GBP to extend higher.

GBP hit a fresh post-Brexit high of 1.4377 yesterday before staging a relatively rapid and sharp pull-back (overnight low of 1.4283). While upward momentum has been dented somewhat, it is premature to expect a top and there is still scope for GBP to extend higher to 1.4400 (with lower odds for further extension to 1.4460). That said, 1.4400 is acting as a rather strong resistance now and may temporarily cap for the next couple of days. On the downside, the ‘key support’ remains unchanged at 1.4230 and only a break of this level would indicate that a short-term top is in place.

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 22 Mar 18, 0.7770): Diminished odds for rebound to extend higher.

AUD traded in a tight 31 pips range yesterday (between 0.7761 and 0.7792), the narrowest 1-day range since late December last year. The muted price action has resulted in a rapid loss in momentum and the prospect for the current corrective rebound to extend higher to 0.7825 has diminished. However, only a break of the ‘key support’ at 0.7720 (level unchanged) would confirm that last week’s 0.7810 is a short-term top. Until then, another ‘up-leg’ is not ruled out but as highlighted previously, 0.7825 is a major resistance and is unlikely to yield so easily.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 05 Feb 18, 0.7280): NZD has moved into a consolidation phase.

We warned of the diminished odds for further NZD strength on Monday (16 Apr, 0.7350) and even though the ’key support’ at 0.7320 is still intact (overnight low of 0.7327), the weak daily close in NY is enough to indicate that last week’s 0.7395 high is a short-term top. There is no change to the neutral outlook and NZD is deemed to have moved into a consolidation phase (even though the weakened undertone suggests that the immediate bias is for a probe lower towards the bottom of the expected 0.7290/0.7390 consolidation range).

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 21 Feb 18, 107.35): USD is expected to trade sideways.

The 35 pips range registered yesterday is the smallest one-day range so far this year (24-hour range has been 106.85 between 107.20). The muted price action offers no fresh clues and we continue to hold a neutral stance and expect USD to trade sideways. The key levels are at 106.20 on the downside and 107.90 on the upside but for the next couple of days, 106.60/107.65 is likely enough to contain the movement in USD.

Source:efxdata.com

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 05 Mar 18, 1.2335): Short-term strength has scope to extend to 1.2425.

We highlighted yesterday that “while upward momentum is still not as strong as preferred, the current short-term strength has scope to extend further to the next resistance at 1.2425”. There is no change to the view as EUR subsequently hit a high of 1.2413 before easing off. As long as the ‘key support’ at 1.2310 is intact, we continue to see chance for another push higher towards 1.2425. As noted previously, this is a rather critical resistance as a clear break of this level would increase the odds for a move beyond last month’s peak at 1.2475. In view of the current lackluster momentum, we feel that it is premature to anticipate such a move. All that said, in order to maintain the current mild upward pressure, EUR should move higher quickly as a prolonged consolidation at these levels would lead to a rapid loss in momentum. 

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 07 Mar 18, 1.3895): Still scope for GBP to extend higher.

GBP hit a fresh post-Brexit high of 1.4377 yesterday before staging a relatively rapid and sharp pull-back (overnight low of 1.4283). While upward momentum has been dented somewhat, it is premature to expect a top and there is still scope for GBP to extend higher to 1.4400 (with lower odds for further extension to 1.4460). That said, 1.4400 is acting as a rather strong resistance now and may temporarily cap for the next couple of days. On the downside, the ‘key support’ remains unchanged at 1.4230 and only a break of this level would indicate that a short-term top is in place.

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 22 Mar 18, 0.7770): Diminished odds for rebound to extend higher.

AUD traded in a tight 31 pips range yesterday (between 0.7761 and 0.7792), the narrowest 1-day range since late December last year. The muted price action has resulted in a rapid loss in momentum and the prospect for the current corrective rebound to extend higher to 0.7825 has diminished. However, only a break of the ‘key support’ at 0.7720 (level unchanged) would confirm that last week’s 0.7810 is a short-term top. Until then, another ‘up-leg’ is not ruled out but as highlighted previously, 0.7825 is a major resistance and is unlikely to yield so easily.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 05 Feb 18, 0.7280): NZD has moved into a consolidation phase.

We warned of the diminished odds for further NZD strength on Monday (16 Apr, 0.7350) and even though the ’key support’ at 0.7320 is still intact (overnight low of 0.7327), the weak daily close in NY is enough to indicate that last week’s 0.7395 high is a short-term top. There is no change to the neutral outlook and NZD is deemed to have moved into a consolidation phase (even though the weakened undertone suggests that the immediate bias is for a probe lower towards the bottom of the expected 0.7290/0.7390 consolidation range).

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 21 Feb 18, 107.35): USD is expected to trade sideways.

The 35 pips range registered yesterday is the smallest one-day range so far this year (24-hour range has been 106.85 between 107.20). The muted price action offers no fresh clues and we continue to hold a neutral stance and expect USD to trade sideways. The key levels are at 106.20 on the downside and 107.90 on the upside but for the next couple of days, 106.60/107.65 is likely enough to contain the movement in USD.

Source:efxdata.com

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