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EUR/USD: Neutral (since 06 Feb 18, 1.2375): EUR strength unlikely to be sustained.

EUR edged above the January’s 1.2536 top last Friday but slumped after briefly touching a high of 1.2555. The rally from late last week appears to be running ahead of itself and we are not convinced that the up-move can be sustained. The neutral phase that started more than a week is still intact and we view the current movement as part of a broad 1.2320/1.2555 consolidation range. Looking further ahead, EUR has to ‘punch’ clearly above 1.2555 in order to suggest that it has enough momentum to continue to march higher in the coming days and weeks. At this stage, the odds for such a move are not high.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 30 Jan 18, 1.4075): Still neutral; likely back in consolidation mode.

While we highlighted last week that it is “premature to expect the start of a major bearish reversal”, the sharp recovery that rose to a high of 1.4145 on Friday was unexpected. The rapid up-move appears to be running ahead of itself even though a move above 1.4145 would not be surprising. That said, a sustained move 1.4200 is not expected for now. To put it another way, the neutral phase that started about 3 weeks ago is still intact and the price action since then is viewed as part of a rather broad consolidation phase that could last for a while more. On a shorter-term note, GBP is expected to trade sideways to slightly higher, likely within a 1.3920/1.4200 range.

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 15 Feb 18, 0.7925): In a consolidation phase.

AUD moved into a neutral phase when it broke above 0.7920 in the middle of last week. A short-term low is in place and AUD has likely moved into a consolidation phase and is expected to trade sideways for now, likely within a 0.7820/0.8020 range.

NZD/USD:  Neutral (since 05 Feb 18, 0.7280): Shift to bullish if NY closing is above 0.7435/40.

The strong surge that started in the middle of last week tested the January’s peak of 0.7437 last Friday but failed to break through (exact high of 0.7437 on Friday). While upward momentum has improved considerably, only a NY closing above 0.7435/40 would indicate that a move towards 0.7500 (and possibly beyond) has started. The odds for such a move are not high at this stage but would continue to improve as long as the key 0.7310 support is not taken out in the next few days.

USD/JPY:  Bearish (since 14 Feb 18, 107.80): Severely oversold but room for extension to 105.00.

The outlook for USD shifted to bearish last week when it broke below the key 108.00 support. The decline since then has been impulsive as USD touched a low of 105.52 on Friday. The down-move is severely oversold but there is room for further extension to 105.00. Only a move back above 107.30 would indicate that a short-term low is in place.

Source:efxdata.com

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 06 Feb 18, 1.2375): EUR strength unlikely to be sustained.

EUR edged above the January’s 1.2536 top last Friday but slumped after briefly touching a high of 1.2555. The rally from late last week appears to be running ahead of itself and we are not convinced that the up-move can be sustained. The neutral phase that started more than a week is still intact and we view the current movement as part of a broad 1.2320/1.2555 consolidation range. Looking further ahead, EUR has to ‘punch’ clearly above 1.2555 in order to suggest that it has enough momentum to continue to march higher in the coming days and weeks. At this stage, the odds for such a move are not high.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 30 Jan 18, 1.4075): Still neutral; likely back in consolidation mode.

While we highlighted last week that it is “premature to expect the start of a major bearish reversal”, the sharp recovery that rose to a high of 1.4145 on Friday was unexpected. The rapid up-move appears to be running ahead of itself even though a move above 1.4145 would not be surprising. That said, a sustained move 1.4200 is not expected for now. To put it another way, the neutral phase that started about 3 weeks ago is still intact and the price action since then is viewed as part of a rather broad consolidation phase that could last for a while more. On a shorter-term note, GBP is expected to trade sideways to slightly higher, likely within a 1.3920/1.4200 range.

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 15 Feb 18, 0.7925): In a consolidation phase.

AUD moved into a neutral phase when it broke above 0.7920 in the middle of last week. A short-term low is in place and AUD has likely moved into a consolidation phase and is expected to trade sideways for now, likely within a 0.7820/0.8020 range.

NZD/USD:  Neutral (since 05 Feb 18, 0.7280): Shift to bullish if NY closing is above 0.7435/40.

The strong surge that started in the middle of last week tested the January’s peak of 0.7437 last Friday but failed to break through (exact high of 0.7437 on Friday). While upward momentum has improved considerably, only a NY closing above 0.7435/40 would indicate that a move towards 0.7500 (and possibly beyond) has started. The odds for such a move are not high at this stage but would continue to improve as long as the key 0.7310 support is not taken out in the next few days.

USD/JPY:  Bearish (since 14 Feb 18, 107.80): Severely oversold but room for extension to 105.00.

The outlook for USD shifted to bearish last week when it broke below the key 108.00 support. The decline since then has been impulsive as USD touched a low of 105.52 on Friday. The down-move is severely oversold but there is room for further extension to 105.00. Only a move back above 107.30 would indicate that a short-term low is in place.

Source:efxdata.com

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