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EUR/USD: Shift from bullish to NEUTRAL: In a 1.1250/1.1430 range.

The bullish phase that started on 28 Jun has ended when EUR dipped below the stop-loss at 1.1330. The 1.1445 peak seen last week was the extent of the bullish phase. The current movement is seen as a consolidation phase and EUR is expected to trade sideways between 1.1250 and 1.1430 for now. Looking further ahead, further EUR strength is still expected but this is likely only after the current consolidation phase is over (consolidation may last more than a week). 

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 05 Jul 17, 1.2925): In 1.2820/1.3030 range. No change in view, see update from yesterday below. The breach of 1.2925 yesterday indicates that last week’s 1.3030 high is the extent of the recent bullish phase. A short-term peak is in place and GBP has likely moved into a 1.2820/1.3030 consolidation phase. Looking further ahead, GBP has move to break clearly above 1.3030 to indicate that it has moved into a bullish phase again but this scenario is unlikely to happen so soon.

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 05 Jul 17, 0.7610): In a 0.7540/0.7690 range.

We just shifted to a neutral stance yesterday and there is no change to the view. The post-RBA decline is viewed as part of a broader consolidation phase and not the start of a major bearish reversal. AUD is expected trade sideways from here, likely within a broad 0.7540/0.7690 range. 

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 16 Jun 17, 0.7205): Back in a 0.7230/0.7350 range.

There is not much to add as NZD dipped to a low of 0.7254 before recovering to close largely unchanged yesterday. The neutral phase that started about 3 weeks ago is still in place and we expect this pair to trade sideways for now, likely within a 0.7230/0.7350 range. 

USD/JPY: Bullish (since 20 Jun 17, 111.65): Diminished odds for further USD strength.

While USD broke 113.50 yesterday, it was unable to hold on to its gain and closed unchanged for the day. The lack of a ‘follow-through’ despite the break of a significant resistance coupled with the ‘weak’ daily closing does not bode well for our bullish USD view. The odds for further USD strength towards 114.35 have diminished but only a break below 112.40 would indicate that the bullish phase that started on 20 Jun (spot at 111.65) has ended. In the meanwhile, in order to maintain its bullish impetus, USD has to move and stay above 113.55 within these few days or the odds for further up-move would deteriorate further. We have suggested those who are long USD from 111.65 to exit half of their position at 112.75 previously. Those with remaining long should utilize 112.40 as a stop-loss.

Source: efxnews.com

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