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Forex Tech Targets

FOREX_Technical-analysis-daily_20-03-2018_FXPIG

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 05 Mar 18, 1.2335): EUR is expected to move lower and test the strong 1.2200 support.

EUR edged to a low of 1.2256 before staging a surprisingly strong rebound. However, as highlighted yesterday (19 Mar, spot at 1.2285), only a move back above 1.2385 would indicate that the current downward pressure has eased. Until then, we continue to see chance for EUR to move lower and test the strong support at 1.2200. That said, in view of the strong recovery yesterday, EUR could consolidate around current levels for a few days before making the next attempt lower.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 07 Mar 18, 1.3895): Scope for further extension to 1.4145 but a sustained break seems unlikely.

The abrupt and sharp rally in GBP yesterday was clearly unexpected. News of a deal on Brexit sent GBP soaring to a one-month high of 1.4088. Upward pressure has picked up considerably and the risk remains on the upside. However, despite the strong up-move, we are not convinced that the current price action is the start of a bullish phase. That said, the rally has scope to extend further towards the midFebruary high of 1.4145 but a sustained break above this level seems unlikely. Overall, GBP is expected to stay supported as long as the key support at 1.3930 is intact.

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 15 Feb 18, 0.7925): Bearish if NY close is below 0.7700.

While AUD dipped below the strong 0.7715/20 support yesterday, it rebounded from a low of 0.7687 and closed marginally higher in NY. The outlook remains negative but we are not ready to adopt a full-fledged bearish stance until we see NY closing below 0.7700. As highlighted yesterday (19 Mar, spot at 0.7725), a shift to a bearish outlook still appears to be a likely scenario as long as the key resistance at 0.7770 is intact. That said, shorter-term indicators are unwinding from severely oversold conditions and this could lead to a few days of consolidation first (before the next major down-leg can be expected).

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 05 Feb 18, 0.7280): Scope for a probe of the major 0.7175/85 support zone. No change in view.There is not much to add to last Friday’s update (16 Mar, spot at 0.7275) wherein we hold the view that there is scope for NZD to probe the major 0.7175/85 support zone. That said, the continuing sharp and rapid decline was unexpected as NZD lost about -1.6% over last Thursday and Friday, the largest 2-day decline since early February. While the 0.7175/85 support zone is expected to offer solid support, a break of this zone is not ruled out and would indicate that NZD has moved into a bearish phase. The odds for such a move are not that high at this stage but would increase quickly unless NZD can reclaim 0.7300 (0.7265 is already quite a strong resistance level).

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 21 Feb 18, 107.35): A retest of 105.25 seems likely. No change in view.USD dipped below our expected 105.70/107.50 consolidation last Friday and hit a low of 105.59. While the decline lacks momentum, the undertone has weakened and from here, a retest of the month-to-date low of 105.25 seems likely. At this stage, the prospect for a clear break of this level is not high. Overall, only a move back above 106.80 would indicate that the current mild downward pressure has eased.

Source: efxdata.com

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 05 Mar 18, 1.2335): EUR is expected to move lower and test the strong 1.2200 support.

EUR edged to a low of 1.2256 before staging a surprisingly strong rebound. However, as highlighted yesterday (19 Mar, spot at 1.2285), only a move back above 1.2385 would indicate that the current downward pressure has eased. Until then, we continue to see chance for EUR to move lower and test the strong support at 1.2200. That said, in view of the strong recovery yesterday, EUR could consolidate around current levels for a few days before making the next attempt lower.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 07 Mar 18, 1.3895): Scope for further extension to 1.4145 but a sustained break seems unlikely.

The abrupt and sharp rally in GBP yesterday was clearly unexpected. News of a deal on Brexit sent GBP soaring to a one-month high of 1.4088. Upward pressure has picked up considerably and the risk remains on the upside. However, despite the strong up-move, we are not convinced that the current price action is the start of a bullish phase. That said, the rally has scope to extend further towards the midFebruary high of 1.4145 but a sustained break above this level seems unlikely. Overall, GBP is expected to stay supported as long as the key support at 1.3930 is intact.

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 15 Feb 18, 0.7925): Bearish if NY close is below 0.7700.

While AUD dipped below the strong 0.7715/20 support yesterday, it rebounded from a low of 0.7687 and closed marginally higher in NY. The outlook remains negative but we are not ready to adopt a full-fledged bearish stance until we see NY closing below 0.7700. As highlighted yesterday (19 Mar, spot at 0.7725), a shift to a bearish outlook still appears to be a likely scenario as long as the key resistance at 0.7770 is intact. That said, shorter-term indicators are unwinding from severely oversold conditions and this could lead to a few days of consolidation first (before the next major down-leg can be expected).

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 05 Feb 18, 0.7280): Scope for a probe of the major 0.7175/85 support zone. No change in view.There is not much to add to last Friday’s update (16 Mar, spot at 0.7275) wherein we hold the view that there is scope for NZD to probe the major 0.7175/85 support zone. That said, the continuing sharp and rapid decline was unexpected as NZD lost about -1.6% over last Thursday and Friday, the largest 2-day decline since early February. While the 0.7175/85 support zone is expected to offer solid support, a break of this zone is not ruled out and would indicate that NZD has moved into a bearish phase. The odds for such a move are not that high at this stage but would increase quickly unless NZD can reclaim 0.7300 (0.7265 is already quite a strong resistance level).

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 21 Feb 18, 107.35): A retest of 105.25 seems likely. No change in view.USD dipped below our expected 105.70/107.50 consolidation last Friday and hit a low of 105.59. While the decline lacks momentum, the undertone has weakened and from here, a retest of the month-to-date low of 105.25 seems likely. At this stage, the prospect for a clear break of this level is not high. Overall, only a move back above 106.80 would indicate that the current mild downward pressure has eased.

Source: efxdata.com

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